Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[CarnTheScray]

I’m just going to have to assume that threenewpadlocks is related to Tim English in some way.

I’m glad there’s stat lovers on this forum and people with differing opinions that can have civil discussions, but I think English’s game last weekend has opened the eyes of many people who were previously pro-English.

 

[bigdog54]

Gee some of the posts here are bizarre.

Garcia has been a fringe player for most of his career and he's moved itno the age category where we shouldn't expect improvement simply through experience. At first glance the couple of games he played before he got dropped did appear to be reasonably good, though not outstanding to the point that you should question why a player who has been in and out of the team across several years ... remains in and out of the team. It's not some conspiracy, it's not some punishment.

Garcia remains a limited player in some aspects in terms of versatility and role that he can play, which is more critical for fringe players even if they do play an odd good game more frequently than another fringe player who is more versatile. He's not a small forward and he's not a winger. He's had to play those positions in pinches, but in comparison to a player like Anthony Scott, who I'm not claiming is a better player, but has provably demonstrated he's played to a certain level across different versatile positions in a consistent basis over his career.

Even with Tim English's worse form this year, his on-field performances still places him in the top 10 rucks on the field in the season. I don't see how we become a better team recruiting a player who has never played well at AFL level for a consistent period + 300k salary cap room, even if we were able to use that salary cap room perfectly, which is no guarantee. There'd either be a million posts about whatever other ruck we had, or simply, people would just not realise the difference in value play styles produce - a different ruck may avoid an ugly-looking physical contest loss, but would not have the running capacity to get to contests, or help his team's clearance differential, or get the occasional hitout to advantage, which English does but doesn't get valued (hence him still being a top-10 ruck). Half the league's teams are in a constant cycle of having an existential crisis for who should be the first ruck, the fact that we have a guaranteed one shoudn't be considered worthless.

Agree with the Garcia take. However, you're defence of English is the bizarre post. He's been poor this year, average the rest. The league generally has 2-3 good ruckman at best so being 'top 10' is no great achievement. I've said before, Tim has some talents but I don't want him first ruck. Like it or not we're in a rebuild and if he nets us a 1st round compo he's expendable...

 

[Ash1337]

Agree with the Garcia take. However, you're defence of English is the bizarre post. He's been poor this year, average the rest. The league generally has 2-3 good ruckman at best so being 'top 10' is no great achievement. I've said before, Tim has some talents but I don't want him first ruck. Like it or not we're in a rebuild and if he nets us a 1st round compo he's expendable...

Cant be a AA ruck if he was average. He was very good most of the year until he and the team faulted the last few weeks of the season. Concussion symptoms and barely and pre-season have given him a very poor form. He is also working through contract negotiations which can affect players mindsets too. I think a injury free pre-season and improvements from Darcy taking more ruck minutes might seem him be a better player next year.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Cant be a AA ruck if he was average. He was very good most of the year until he and the team faulted the last few weeks of the season. Concussion symptoms and barely and pre-season have given him a very poor form. He is also working through contract negotiations which can affect players mindsets too. I think a injury free pre-season and improvements from Darcy taking more ruck minutes might seem him be a better player next year.

Champ Data did a breakdown (yesterday or day before) on English over the years. Short of last year he has been average to below average at everything you'd generally measure a ruck in. I'm praying Darcy can take over from him sooner than later as his already showing better ruckcraft and aggressiveness at center bounces.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Cant be a AA ruck if he was average. He was very good most of the year until he and the team faulted the last few weeks of the season. Concussion symptoms and barely and pre-season have given him a very poor form. He is also working through contract negotiations which can affect players mindsets too. I think an injury free pre-season and improvements from Darcy taking more ruck minutes might seem him be a better player next year.

Marshall had him covered last year as well, was very lucky to make it.

 

[mattwa]

Think this new ruck rule has also really highlighted his flaws

 

[The Inbetweener]

Jon Ralph’s latest column has Liam Baker

7

Liam Baker

Age

26

Ht

173cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

222.2

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.9

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

191.9

3star

D

14.4

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

224.2

4star

values at 10-12 while saying Geelong will use 14 on Baz. Richmond bias shining through!

 

[VitalDread]

Jon Ralph’s latest column has Liam Baker values at 10-12 while saying Geelong will use 14 on Baz. Richmond bias shining through!

Make sense in terms of output
Baker was an important Cog for Tigers premiership run

 

[Dogs Rule]

Jon Ralph’s latest column has Liam Baker values at 10-12 while saying Geelong will use 14 on Baz. Richmond bias shining through!

Course he does. I must have missed the whole Liam Baker thing, I don't see it. Just seems like a bog standard almost Caleb Daniel sized small mid.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Course he does. I must have missed the whole Liam Baker thing, I don't see it. Just seems like a bog standard small mid.

I follow him purely because he is in a draft league. But he is so inconsistent, rarely a match winner.

The only reason he is probably rated lower than Baker, is the fact that Baz is coming off an ACL and had an up and down season. He would have been worth double Bakers worth pre ACL easily.

 

[mattwa]

There is no way anyone is taking Liam Baker

7

Liam Baker

Age

26

Ht

173cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

222.2

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.9

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

191.9

3star

D

14.4

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

224.2

4star

over Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

. Bailey has the potential to be an elite mid. Here are his stats from his "worst" season in 23 to Bakers best. I've also included 22 to show smith's output at a good output.

 

[Dogs Rule]

I follow him purely because he is in a draft league. But he is so inconsistent, rarely a match winner. The only reason, its the fact that Baz is coming off an ACL. He would have been worth double Bakers worth pre ACL.

So he's a role player. A small mid role player. He's Caleb.

Smith is a burst midfield, yes, questionable kicking at times, but clubs love the burst. Hell, our club needs that burst mid. Every club wants it.

But Ralph can do Ralph. Completely up his own arse.

 

[Ash1337]

Baker is very much like Caleb except he's way more capable playing in the midfield. His ball use out of the middle is the best in the team and is the best at picking out targets in the forward line. He's probably more like Caleb 2.0 because he's actually more agile and has a better leap.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Baker is very much like Caleb except he's way more capable playing in the midfield. His ball use out of the middle is the best in the team and is the best at picking out targets in the forward line. He's probably more like Caleb 2.0 because he's actually more agile and has a better leap.

Hmm, but is he worth a top 10 pick as Ralph has suggested though?

I would argue no way.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Jon Ralph’s latest column has Liam Baker values at 10-12 while saying Geelong will use 14 on Baz. Richmond bias shining through!

When have we ever got overs for any of our talented players that have left Stringer unders, Dunkley unders, Griffen unders in complicated deal thank god Tom played that game in the GF. Then we pay overs to get Lobb and Sanders.

No doubt we get low balled for Smith.

 

[Ash1337]

Hmm, but is he worth a top 10 pick as Ralph has suggested though?

I would argue no way.

They're about equal. If you had to pay a top 10 pick for 1 of them you'd want Baker just based on proven performance.

 

[dogwatch]

They're about equal. If you had to pay a top 10 pick for 1 of them you'd want Baker just based on proven performance.

Haha, nice side step!

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Are you saying Vandermeer, Gallagher and McNeil are better players than Garcia?

Not at all, just that they play different primary positions and also have far more versatility in playing different positions.

Garcia can basically play two positions: onballer and forward that pushes up as to the contest as onballer.

Team balance in positions and fitting players into a role is far more important at a marginal talent level than shoehorning a player who is 5% better, maybe the 21st best player on your list vs the 25th, into a position or role they're not suited.

I’m just going to have to assume that threenewpadlocks is related to Tim English in some way.

I’m glad there’s stat lovers on this forum and people with differing opinions that can have civil discussions, but I think English’s game last weekend has opened the eyes of many people who were previously pro-English.

Cant be a AA ruck if he was average. He was very good most of the year until he and the team faulted the last few weeks of the season. Concussion symptoms and barely and pre-season have given him a very poor form. He is also working through contract negotiations which can affect players mindsets too. I think a injury free pre-season and improvements from Darcy taking more ruck minutes might seem him be a better player next year.

For instance, he's still 5th in the competition among rucks for intercept possessions per game average.

His 11 goals kicked is the most for any player in the league who is primarily playing as a first ruck.

These two things combined, he is still offering value well above that of an average first ruck by pushing forward and back and getting separation from the opponent ruck that is meant to run with him, which will not be matched by a significant margin by other rucks in the league (e.g. Kieran Briggs 0 goals in 16 games).

His hitout to advantage rate of 32.1% is rank 1 for any first ruck who has played 10+ games this year, which is not to say that he's overall a good tap ruck in all contests, but it mitigates some of the poor nature of the fact he fails to usually win the hitout battle (which comes into criticism), and means some of our clearance win rate can be attributed to his hitout to advantage win rates. I'm not saying it's good, just that there's some fair mitigation people don't recognise.

I'm not saying he hasn't dropped off versus an all-Australian year last year, or even can be considered good, but over the course of this year he's still played up to the ability of a established, best-22 ruck that can still rightfully be considered a top-10 ruck in the league, and many of the games people consider he plays are "bad" are probably less bad in accumulation if he kicks 1 goal vs. 0 or gets 5 intercept possessions vs another ruck's 4 or whatever. If he's to earn 800k a year on a contract over the next 5 years or whatever, that would make him on average about the 6th or 8th best paid ruck in the league over the course of the deal, which is probably fair, and one that we as a club might get value from, if he ever returns to AA form, which is possible, given if he doesn't get any more concussions and moves past that stage of his career.

 

[Doggies7]

Bailey is 3 years younger than Baker too, that makes a pretty big difference in a player's value. Baker is in his prime now whereas Bailey hasn't hit his yet. Obviously the knee is a bit of a factor, but you don't really get to use that when you come and offer Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

huge money on a lot of years (reportedly).

 

[mattwa]

They're about equal. If you had to pay a top 10 pick for 1 of them you'd want Baker just based on proven performance.

I don't see how Baker is near Smith on proven performance. Smith has 29 brownlow votes to Bakers 13. Smith 2021 finals series is top 10 player in the comp level and a peak we are never going to see from Baker. We are underrating Smith based off a poor 23. An ACL these days isn't as bad as other injuries.

 

[yebach]

Not at all, just that they play different primary positions and also have far more versatility in playing different positions.

Garcia can basically play two positions: onballer and forward that pushes up as to the contest as onballer.

Team balance in positions and fitting players into a role is far more important at a marginal talent level than shoehorning a player who is 5% better, maybe the 21st best player on your list vs the 25th, into a position or role they're not suited.



For instance, he's still 5th in the competition among rucks for intercept possessions per game average.

His 11 goals kicked is the most for any player in the league who is primarily playing as a first ruck.

These two things combined, he is still offering value well above that of an average first ruck by pushing forward and back and getting separation from the opponent ruck that is meant to run with him, which will not be matched by a significant margin by other rucks in the league (e.g. Kieran Briggs 0 goals in 16 games).

His hitout to advantage rate of 32.1% is rank 1 for any first ruck who has played 10+ games this year, which is not to say that he's overall a good tap ruck in all contests, but it mitigates some of the poor nature of the fact he fails to usually win the hitout battle (which comes into criticism), and means some of our clearance win rate can be attributed to his hitout to advantage win rates. I'm not saying it's good, just that there's some fair mitigation people don't recognise.

I'm not saying he hasn't dropped off versus an all-Australian year last year, or even can be considered good, but over the course of this year he's still played up to the ability of a established, best-22 ruck that can still rightfully be considered a top-10 ruck in the league, and many of the games people consider he plays are "bad" are probably less bad in accumulation if he kicks 1 goal vs. 0 or gets 5 intercept possessions vs another ruck's 4 or whatever. If he's to earn 800k a year on a contract over the next 5 years or whatever, that would make him on average about the 6th or 8th best paid ruck in the league over the course of the deal, which is probably fair, and one that we as a club might get value from, if he ever returns to AA form, which is possible, given if he doesn't get any more concussions and moves past that stage of his career.

And what positions do the players I mentioned actually play well in?

 

[bigdog54]

So Geelong can offer Smith 900k a year over 5 years but when it comes to trade value can only offer a pick in the teens. And I bet we just cop it...

 

[LondonBulldog]

So Geelong can offer Smith 900k a year over 5 years but when it comes to trade value can only offer a pick in the teens. And I bet we just cop it...

oh course, once a player nominates a club, that club has hand and will definitely win the trade every time on value alone.

Yet there are other things which can't be fully measured were the club wins in cases like Smith and Stringer. If players want to leave you get what you can for them and move on quickly.

 

[F6Typhoon]

Re: English… If you didn’t know the result Vs Port, and more importantly didn’t actually WATCH the game, his stats of 17 possessions (13kicks, 4 h/b’s) 8 marks (inc 3 contested), 2 goals, 5 tackles, and 24 hit outs, you’d reckon he had a pretty serviceable, borderline “excellent” game!
Real enigma, is the lad..

 

[geoffjennings79]

They're about equal. If you had to pay a top 10 pick for 1 of them you'd want Baker just based on proven performance.

Yeah, I remember those finals where Baker was kicking goals under pressure, on his opposite foot...
Baker has never hit the heights of Smith. May be slightly more consistent, but helps that he's had a larger exposure as a pure mid, and per the quotes below, it's a strong disagree from me.

Bailey is 3 years younger than Baker too, that makes a pretty big difference in a player's value. Baker is in his prime now whereas Bailey hasn't hit his yet. Obviously the knee is a bit of a factor, but you don't really get to use that when you come and offer Bailey Smith huge money on a lot of years (reportedly).

I don't see how Baker is near Smith on proven performance. Smith has 29 brownlow votes to Bakers 13. Smith 2021 finals series is top 10 player in the comp level and a peak we are never going to see from Baker. We are underrating Smith based off a poor 23. An ACL these days isn't as bad as other injuries.