Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[jdz101]

Bigfooty. Where the potential of a bird in the hand is alway better than an actual bird in the hand.

Its ridiculous watching how much Sweet gets pumped up in here after he dominates suburban or rookie ruckman on a weekly basis.

If either he or English choose to leave. The advantages that he has on a weekly basis will soon be nullified by guys that are his equal physically and eclipsed by those will a skill advantage.

Losing bailey smith and tim english and going to the draft with some sexy high draft picks might net us players as good as Bailey Smith and Tim English though!!!

 

[Bulldogs85]

Happy for Poulter definitely has a future with us

 

[doggies ftw]

Losing bailey smith and tim english and going to the draft with some sexy high draft picks might net us players as good as Bailey Smith and Tim English though!!!

Whilst I get your point and usually agree that the love affair with high picks is over the top and you’re usually always better off with the proven player, I’m torn on Timmy.

I’m starting to think more & more that you just don’t pay $1mil for a ruckman, especially one that isn’t very good in the ruck. Especially when we have more important 1mil a year contracts coming very soon in Naughty/Marra and Darcy who will be the best of the lot. It’s just a huge amount of money for a player who doesn’t really have that much impact on a game, would much rather a solid B grader on half the wage.

I dunno obviously I’ll be stoked if we keep Timmy but I really would not care if he walked for more money and we got well rewarded (which we absolutely would get well overs IMO - two first rounders easily) it sort of seems from the outside that he’s more interested in maximising his earnings than being successful anyway so if that is the case so be it.

 

[doggie dog]

I think there is a massive play we could make.
English to west coast (reason being his next contract will be massive) give them pick 17 as well.
Pick 1 take Reid
Pick 10 take best midfielder if available wilson
Then Croft
With money saved take Grundy problem solved (and he will get ball out of the middle)
Play kharmis at CHB
Buss and OD fast classy backline
2 smooth moving forward on ballers from the draft and an athletic 203cm full back win win

That's acutally a great option that is actually realistic and could be a crack.
West coke get a instant AA ruckman with another 1st rounder to replace Nik Nat. 1st has to be on the table.
Reid prefect for our midfield lacking speed and accurate kicking.
The hitch could be what it takes to get Grundy. If the dees pay some of the salary, Grundys contact is huge.
If we did get Reid and Grundy I'd move Smithy, next contract will be huge and he just can't reliability got targets

 

[murphy's twin]

I just think the same formula won’t succeed next year even with new assistants.

We need to change things up!

 

[Foxman98]

Whilst I get your point and usually agree that the love affair with high picks is over the top and you’re usually always better off with the proven player, I’m torn on Timmy.

I’m starting to think more & more that you just don’t pay $1mil for a ruckman, especially one that isn’t very good in the ruck. Especially when we have more important 1mil a year contracts coming very soon in Naughty/Marra and Darcy who will be the best of the lot. It’s just a huge amount of money for a player who doesn’t really have that much impact on a game, would much rather a solid B grader on half the wage.

I dunno obviously I’ll be stoked if we keep Timmy but I really would not care if he walked for more money and we got well rewarded (which we absolutely would get well overs IMO - two first rounders easily) it sort of seems from the outside that he’s more interested in maximising his earnings than being successful anyway so if that is the case so be it.

This is one thing we need to Americanise,

We need to learn to value positions e.g Rucks are equivalent to running backs not a position anyone should throw money or draft picks at

 

[jdz101]

Whilst I get your point and usually agree that the love affair with high picks is over the top and you’re usually always better off with the proven player, I’m torn on Timmy.

I’m starting to think more & more that you just don’t pay $1mil for a ruckman, especially one that isn’t very good in the ruck. Especially when we have more important 1mil a year contracts coming very soon in Naughty/Marra and Darcy who will be the best of the lot. It’s just a huge amount of money for a player who doesn’t really have that much impact on a game, would much rather a solid B grader on half the wage.

I dunno obviously I’ll be stoked if we keep Timmy but I really would not care if he walked for more money and we got well rewarded (which we absolutely would get well overs IMO - two first rounders easily) it sort of seems from the outside that he’s more interested in maximising his earnings than being successful anyway so if that is the case so be it.

I'd agree but do we know for certain that 1 million a year Tim's asking price?

All our ruck eggs are in the Tim English basket...it would be a bit of a disaster to put 4 years of development in and cop all the beatings that comes with that for another team to reap the rewards.

 

[doggie dog]

Whilst I get your point and usually agree that the love affair with high picks is over the top and you’re usually always better off with the proven player, I’m torn on Timmy.

I’m starting to think more & more that you just don’t pay $1mil for a ruckman, especially one that isn’t very good in the ruck. Especially when we have more important 1mil a year contracts coming very soon in Naughty/Marra and Darcy who will be the best of the lot. It’s just a huge amount of money for a player who doesn’t really have that much impact on a game, would much rather a solid B grader on half the wage.

I dunno obviously I’ll be stoked if we keep Timmy but I really would not care if he walked for more money and we got well rewarded (which we absolutely would get well overs IMO - two first rounders easily) it sort of seems from the outside that he’s more interested in maximising his earnings than being successful anyway so if that is the case so be it.

Effective managing the Salary cap (except if you the cats) is the only way you win premerships.
The Bont, Astro and Marra could all be close to a Million. Salary caps at about 12+.
3 players at quarter of you cap is the max you could go, still another 41 to fill up the list.
Timmy and Smithy aren't massive game changers i would dole out that cash for, I'd rather trade them for multiple cost control players and picks that still gives us great player options at 1-11, but also improve our best 11-22. We can't can't keep playing players that aren't best 22.

 

[hutchy31]

Bigfooty. Where the potential of a bird in the hand is alway better than an actual bird in the hand.

Its ridiculous watching how much Sweet gets pumped up in here after he dominates suburban or rookie ruckman on a weekly basis.

If either he or English choose to leave. The advantages that he has on a weekly basis will soon be nullified by guys that are his equal physically and eclipsed by those will a skill advantage.

Could be true, I trust regular VFL watchers more than posters like me (who only see the odd game and some highlights across the year) so I won't comment on Sweet's skills.

But the comparison isn't a straight 1v1 in regards to English v Sweet, it's more:

1) Tim as 1st ruck, getting all his skills/around the ground benefit, but with close to $1m per year in salary cap and no real improvement in draft position.

or

2) Sweet/someone else as first ruck, not getting the around the ground benefit/additional mid at stoppages etc., but saving probably $500k+ in salary cap and bringing in one or possibly two decent first rounders in the next 12 months.

If (and it's a big if) that's what is viable if English is put on the table, then I wouldn't necessarily criticise any poster for landing on either option. I see the benefit in both.

From my perspective, I would have much preferred to see Tim being told to play KPF/second ruck in at least some games in 2022 and 2023 and see if the English/Sweet combination had any future. Maybe we don't end up unnecessarily spending draft capital and salary cap on Lobb, or maybe it is a disaster and at least we know where we stand with one/both of them.

Or maybe there's nothing English can really do to justify $1m a season or thereabouts, when we shouldn't really need to spend that money on a ruck or a KPF/second ruck due to the talls we have already. Or we're stupid to even entertain getting rid of him (if he wants to stay) right as he breaks out into one of the best players in the comp after sinking 7 years of development into him.

I've never been a massive fan of Tim as a first ruck, as I've always thought he is missing some aggression in his game that you need - particularly when coming up against the lesser skilled crash-and-bash Mumford types. He has developed to a point where he might make me look completely silly if he finds that from somewhere, as he's clearly the best around the ground ruck in the comp right now (or at least on Gawn's level). But right now, with a salary cap squeeze likely and a gap in terms of good young mids coming through, I wouldn't criticise the club for doing it if he is contemplating his future elsewhere.

 

[doggie dog]

English is worth more to us than just about any other side in the comp. Be really silly to offload him.

Can we afford to keep him at 1 million with Smithy wanting to get paid.
I would only pay The Bont, Marra and Astro that kind of money cause they are game changers.
Timmy and Smithy aren't regular game changes.

 

[doggie dog]

Losing bailey smith and tim english and going to the draft with some sexy high draft picks might net us players as good as Bailey Smith and Tim English though!!!

The salary cap won't permit the dogs to pay Timmy and Smithy near 1 million.
With what The Bont, Marra and Astro are soon to be on, that could be close to a quarter our cap. The caps at 12 or 13 million?

 

[jdz101]

Can we afford to keep him at 1 million with Smithy wanting to get paid.
I would only pay The Bont, Marra and Astro that kind of money cause they are game changers.
Timmy and Smithy aren't regular game changes.

Bit of recency bias here and unfairness to Tim.

Tim wore an all australian blazer last week

&

Bailey Smith's 2021 finals and 2022 season were pretty consistently damn good.

Namely 27 possessions and 3 goals against Brisbane where we won by a point and followed that with 23 possessions and 4 goals against port in a prelim the week after.

Averaged 29 possessions in 2022

 

[Mojorisin]

As crazy as it would be for english to choose melbourne it would be even stranger for melbourne to go after another expensive ruck after getting Grundy last year and expect a different result.

 

[adogsfan5]

As crazy as it would be for english to choose melbourne it would be even stranger for melbourne to go after another expensive ruck after getting Grundy last year and expect a different result.

If Tim is happy to play 80% forward then it’s a good plan.

If not, then it’s stupid.

 

[jdz101]

The salary cap won't permit the dogs to pay Timmy and Smithy near 1 million.
With what The Bont, Marra and Astro are soon to be on, that could be close to a quarter our cap. The caps at 12 or 13 million?

Managing the salary cap is a tough task no doubt but all this assumes noone ever retires, leaves or gets cut.

What did the combination of Josh Bruce and Josh Dunkley earn?

A lot of other clubs seem to be able to retain a solid handful of their top tier.

 

[Mojorisin]

If Tim is happy to play 80% forward then it’s a good plan.

If not, then it’s stupid.

If Tim were happy to spend expended minutes forward then he would be much more value to us.

 

[doggies ftw]

I'd agree but do we know for certain that 1 million a year Tim's asking price?

All our ruck eggs are in the Tim English basket...it would be a bit of a disaster to put 4 years of development in and cop all the beatings that comes with that for another team to reap the rewards.

If he only wants I dunno 800k or something then I’d much prefer to keep him, we don’t know for sure but all the indications seem to be that it’s big big money.

Yeah it’d ****ing suck bad after what we’ve put up with in his development, I’ll be absolutely livid if he walks for money after how good we’ve been to him to be honest. And if he walks to another Vic team, to be a 2nd ruck/fwd (ie Melb) I’ll legit lose my shit after supposedly bending us over to be a 1st ruck only.

But at the same time there’s a bit of sunk cost fallacy about it, just because we’ve lost out on the last few years shouldn’t effect our decision making going forward.

 

[Bald]

I’m starting to think more & more that you just don’t pay $1mil for a ruckman unless their name is Tom Boyd

Fixed

 

[dergert]

Love the 2 year deal for Poulter.

He had big knocks on his field kicking when delisted from Collingwood but he looks to have improved.

Would love to see him start getting mid to high 20 disposals a game next year.

 

[adogsfan5]

If Tim were happy to spend expended minutes forward then he would be much more value to us.

Also very true!

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I’m asking for another first if Melbourne. They got 5 and another first for Jackson who is an inferior player to English.

I also don’t like topping up a premiership contender.

Really can’t see this happening

Again, they already have Hunter who is doing ok for them.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Could be true, I trust regular VFL watchers more than posters like me (who only see the odd game and some highlights across the year) so I won't comment on Sweet's skills.

I watch most VFL games, but I don't expect you to take my opinions for anything other than that.

Thats why Im pretty adamant that Sweet will be found out at the next level and why we've never really explored what he might bring in combination with English. His fate was sealed when we elected to bring in Rory Lobb for what in effect was peanuts to cover for Darcy's development.

But the comparison isn't a straight 1v1 in regards to English v Sweet, it's more:

1) Tim as 1st ruck, getting all his skills/around the ground benefit, but with close to $1m per year in salary cap and no real improvement in draft position.

or

2) Sweet/someone else as first ruck, not getting the around the ground benefit/additional mid at stoppages etc., but saving probably $500k+ in salary cap and bringing in one or possibly two decent first rounders in the next 12 months.

In my view what English achieves around the ground gets way underplayed whenever the topic comes up. Just as what Sweet brings in the middle of the ground gets overplayed. However, I concede that those with opposing views see it the other way around.

If (and it's a big if) that's what is viable if English is put on the table, then I wouldn't necessarily criticise any poster for landing on either option. I see the benefit in both.

Replacing English with Sweet or another journeyman and the hope of an early draft hit would be one of the biggest mistakes in the clubs history.

I dont think it's a question of him being put on the table though. It's a question of believing and thus speculating about every rumour, be it a move to WA to be with his girlfriend(that seems to have got by the by) or any other unsubstantiated bullshit that gets passed around in here. The speculation is that he'd rip up his contract a year early and ask for a trade. Now it just seems to be for reasons.

From my perspective, I would have much preferred to see Tim being told to play KPF/second ruck in at least some games in 2022 and 2023 and see if the English/Sweet combination had any future. Maybe we don't end up unnecessarily spending draft capital and salary cap on Lobb, or maybe it is a disaster and at least we know where we stand with one/both of them.

Im happy to admit that Sweet has somewhat improved his mobility and around the ground play in the second half of this season. Having said that he was no where near being a viable proposition as a second ruckman prior to that. Thats without even considering the knock on effect that adding yet another tall forward rotation already bulging at the seems with talls would have. If we'd played Sweet and English in the same side prior to this year and the arrival of Lobb.

Or maybe there's nothing English can really do to justify $1m a season or thereabouts, when we shouldn't really need to spend that money on a ruck or a KPF/second ruck due to the talls we have already. Or we're stupid to even entertain getting rid of him (if he wants to stay) right as he breaks out into one of the best players in the comp after sinking 7 years of development into him.

His market value is what it is. If we dont pay that value there will be any number of other clubs willing to. This list alleged now starts with Melbourne who already have a near $1million ruckman on their list.

Again, I think what he offers around the ground is way under valued in here. Pardon the pun but what he offers is literally head and shoulders above what any other tall on our list brings. Your last sentence is the correct one.

I've never been a massive fan of Tim as a first ruck, as I've always thought he is missing some aggression in his game that you need - particularly when coming up against the lesser skilled crash-and-bash Mumford types. He has developed to a point where he might make me look completely silly if he finds that from somewhere, as he's clearly the best around the ground ruck in the comp right now (or at least on Gawn's level). But right now, with a salary cap squeeze likely and a gap in terms of good young mids coming through, I wouldn't criticise the club for doing it if he is contemplating his future elsewhere.

It's true that he can be beaten by lesser opponents who bring a physical edge, however, Im prepared (perhaps conveniently)to live with that and much prefer to focus on the elite attributes that he brings to the side. Like how much relief he gives to our defence when he plays a kick behind the play or how his skill set makes him in effect an extra mid who can be used when we're moving through the middle of the ground. That all disappears like a fart in a cyclone if we go with Sweet/journayman.

He's not Max Gawn, physically or in the ruck few are, Gawn is a colossus of the modern game. But hes as good if not better than him in most other facets of the game. It's why they are at the pointy end of any ruck conversation and why they both would command close to a $million a year in any open market.

The thing about salary cap squeezes is that for the most part (except perhaps Geelong's) they occur across the competition. It's the thing about the alleged Melbourne interest in English that makes no sense. They only managed to fit Grundy onto their list because he landed in their laps thanks to Collingwood's largesse. Even assuming that they offload Grundy. How they'd pay full freight for English and fit him in would take some pretty clever accounting. Thats without even considering how they'd facilitate a trade. Given the amount of elite talent on their list they face exactly the same issues as we do.

People talk about the squeeze of paying the likes of Naughton The Bont JUH and English ≈ $1million. How about Melbourne having to do the same with Gawn, Petracca, Oliver and May much the same? Im pretty sure that you could say the same out every club in the competition when it comes to their elite talent. If they can then we can.

 

[VitalDread]

I watch most VFL games, but I don't expect you to take my opinions for anything other than that.

Thats why Im pretty adamant that Sweet will be found out at the next level and why we've never really explored what he might bring in combination with English. His fate was sealed when we elected to bring in Rory Lobb for what in effect was peanuts to cover for Darcy's development.

Sweet biggest knock is his around the ground impact which English shines at

 

[Sentinel]

As crazy as it would be for english to choose melbourne it would be even stranger for melbourne to go after another expensive ruck after getting Grundy last year and expect a different result.

They did a similar thing back in 2018 when they recruited Pruess, although obviously not at the same price. Strange recruiting strategy, its like they forget they have the best first ruckman in the AFL on their list.

(on the assumption that this latest rumour about English is actually true).

 

[weltschmerz]

If Tim has decided that he’d actually love to play fwd-ruck behind a big physical specimen kind of ruckman I’m sure we can give him that opportunity.