Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[bresker]

In soccer an ACL is always listed as a 9 month injury. and players who one early often come back before the end of the season.

 

[Mofra]

In soccer an ACL is always listed as a 9 month injury. and players who one early often come back before the end of the season.

I'd guess that the body-shape and size difference in the two sports might mean AFL medicos take a bit more of a conservative route.

 

[JohnnySteel]

Hmmmmmmm

From memory this was in relation to JUH, English and Baz.

One down. The others more likely than not, it seems.

Really want Baz to sign on. He’ll be out for a big one.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dazb86]

Would be spewing if we lost Garcia. Offers a lot IMO.

Been a bit mishandled like a few in the recent past.

 

[PurpJuice]

From memory this was in relation to JUH, English and Baz.

One down. The others more likely than not, it seems.

Really want Baz to sign on. He’ll be out for a big one.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Why do all the journos think there’s a 0% chance he stays? They wouldn’t be that confident with no intel. Even when Jamarra was up in the air they thought he might stay.

 

[VitalDread]

Why do all the journos think there’s a 0% chance he stays? They wouldn’t be that confident with no intel. Even when Jamarra was up in the air they thought he might stay.

Dogs keep a tight ship when it comes to a lot of things
So a lot of the talk would be from agents or other clubs

 

[goodcop badcop]

I think the point is given all the numbers are so close together I'm not sure there's much insight you can gain, especially when it's selectively cutting off at the 2012 season but not earlier seasons. We turned over the bottom end of the list significantly in 2009-10-11 (31 list changes across those three years), which naturally made the need of turnover in 2012 and 2013 not as necessary (14 across those 2 years). I have no idea where 09-10-11 ranks among the 18 clubs for us, but it's an average that's higher than the 12-year average for all clubs.

It's that old trick, and where people go wrong gambling on sports etc. where you say "player has 20 touches in 9 of his last 11 games" or whatever which you can guarantee that he got it exactly 11 games ago (hence it's not 8 of 10) and not 12 games ago (otherwise you would have said 9 or 10 of 12), and then people attribute the same weight to the last game and a game 11 games ago, and zero weight to a game 13 games ago.

I do agree that we have seemed to hold onto some contracts too long under Beveridge. The issue is that there's no proof that that seems to be a problem in itself, and even if it is, we have to accept that's part of the nature of Beveridge's "back in the players and trust them" mantra that would be less effective if we didn't make it a theme by giving contracts to blokes who buy the club and deserve it on the basis of attitude/chemistry, relative to actual on-field performances, more than an average club.

The idea of using 12 years was to compare what McCartney and Power were doing as they both served 6 years. With new teams in GWS and Gold Coast coming in I really couldn't go any lower anyway. GWS made 34 changes in 2011 and 26 changes in 2010. Gold Coast made 33 list changes in 2010 too. If I included that, the averages would be out of whack.

If you did use those numbers it still means we are becoming more conservative under Power and we are under the average by more then one under him.

 

[goodcop badcop]

You also have to accept the potential loss of Dale, Wood, etc. types who take a while to come good if you turn the list over more aggressively. Hindsight will say we wasted a spot keeping Bedendo on the list but I was still a massive fan this last pre-season.

I do think we need to be less generous with contract lengths for our fringe players. It’s just unnecessary to all of Poulter, Baker, Scott and Jones contracted for 2025 plus Gards for 2026 already. Hopefully Bramble only getting a 1-year extension despite being a mainstay of the team shows we’re learning this lesson

I'm totally fine with Bedendo getting that extra year, he's a high ceiling type. It's keeping on the low ceiling types in the hope they might be able to play a role that I'd rather move on. Other then the names I mentioned earlier, if I was the list manager, I would've cut Roarke Smith and Redpath early into their careers. Both gave decent service, Smith in particular got close to being a premiership player. It's more those types you look at cutting and you can miss out on.

Another example would be Poulter. Pies were pretty harsh cutting him after two years, but really the best I can see him becoming is a role player and I don't think they would lose any sleep over it if he finds a spot in the team.

 

[adogsfan5]

Hmmmmmmm

You da man VD

 

[adogsfan5]

Now the Collingwood board are suggesting we are doing a bowes style trade of smith and Daniel for peanuts. Absolute muppets

Yeah because we’re an expansion club that’s paying overs to C graders to prevent them from moving back home

 

[Libbaaaa]

Garcia is going nowhere based off Mitch Cleary’s comments, supposedly Port Adelaide interested in him so he can play small forward?

 

[adogsfan5]

Garcia is going nowhere based off Mitch Cleary’s comments, supposedly Port Adelaide interested in him so he can play small forward?

Port want everyone.

 

[Dogsfan1]

Garcia is going nowhere based off Mitch Cleary’s comments, supposedly Port Adelaide interested in him so he can play small forward?

What did he say?

 

[PocketRocket08]

Baz is every chance to stay at the dogs for a couple more seasons. Watch this space

I bet 100% he is gone and 95% it’s to the cats.

 

[PocketRocket08]

I'm totally fine with Bedendo getting that extra year, he's a high ceiling type. It's keeping on the low ceiling types in the hope they might be able to play a role that I'd rather move on. Other then the names I mentioned earlier, if I was the list manager, I would've cut Roarke Smith and Redpath early into their careers. Both gave decent service, Smith in particular got close to being a premiership player. It's more those types you look at cutting and you can miss out on.

Another example would be Poulter. Pies were pretty harsh cutting him after two years, but really the best I can see him becoming is a role player and I don't think they would lose any sleep over it if he finds a spot in the team.

Well that’s the way the game has gone 4-6 super players on each list then role players.
Some will be be paid 1 million to 1.5million and role players will be on a range of 400-700k.

Poulter is going to be a capable AFL player he is 21. Get consistent games into and watch him in 30 more games

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Dogs keep a tight ship when it comes to a lot of things
So a lot of the talk would be from agents or other clubs

This.

My own contacts in club land are a player manager and a recruiter for another Melbourne based club. Both will say that getting information about what Power's moves / plans are is very difficult, and it's constantly said that we run a tight operation in regards to our list management.

As for Baz, and this is coming from a player-manager. He speculates that the fact he's remained unsigned has been done on purpose to keep his name and branding constantly spoken about in the media, but he believes that whilst Geelong and the Hawks have thrown huge offers his way he will repay loyalty and stick with the Dogs until at least FA, so two more years.

Personally? No idea what to make of the situation, I'd say it's very 60/40 with the 60 him leaving for a bigger offer.

 

[PurpJuice]

This.

My own contacts in club land are a player manager and a recruiter for another Melbourne based club. Both will say that getting information about what Power's moves / plans are is very difficult, and it's constantly said that we run a tight operation in regards to our list management.

As for Baz, and this is coming from a player-manager. He speculates that the fact he's remained unsigned has been done on purpose to keep his name and branding constantly spoken about in the media, but he believes that whilst Geelong and the Hawks have thrown huge offers his way he will repay loyalty and stick with the Dogs until at least FA, so two more years.

Personally? No idea what to make of the situation, I'd say it's very 60/40 with the 60 him leaving for a bigger offer.

Thanks mate. Any indication on Garcia?

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Thanks mate. Any indication on Garcia?

I haven't spoken to either in about two weeks, and Garcia wasn't mentioned. They don't know I post here so I try to keep convos brief and casual.

One thing I will say I've learned from both of them, is when you see a (fringe) players name started to be dropped in the media like what's been done with Garcia, it's generally a practice by managers to drive up a contract that they're working on. I'd assume, that the Dogs and Garcia's management are currently working threw his next contract and now that 'Port and the Eagles are interested' you'll find that he might get a few extra things in that contract that he might not of before the leak.

The AFL media are 500000% puppets to player managers.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Any chance we can announce Baz has resigned with us just before we play the Cats?

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Why do all the journos think there’s a 0% chance he stays? They wouldn’t be that confident with no intel. Even when Jamarra was up in the air they thought he might stay.

Don't think you are in a position to be hassling posters about who their source is if this is your source

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Port want everyone.

They don’t want Hinkley

 

[Bonty4]

I haven't spoken to either in about two weeks, and Garcia wasn't mentioned. They don't know I post here so I try to keep convos brief and casual.

One thing I will say I've learned from both of them, is when you see a (fringe) players name started to be dropped in the media like what's been done with Garcia, it's generally a practice by managers to drive up a contract that they're working on. I'd assume, that the Dogs and Garcia's management are currently working threw his next contract and now that 'Port and the Eagles are interested' you'll find that he might get a few extra things in that contract that he might not of before the leak.

The AFL media are 500000% puppets to player managers.

 

[Claudonious]

Not sure he's going to reveal it on here, but had a history of good Intel in the past. What's yours, if you're saying he's 0% chance of staying?

Someone I know who is not a bullsh$t artist asked Baz directly if he was going to be at the dogs next year- the answer was an emphatic no, with zero hesitation.

He could have said ""working with my manager blah blah" but he didn't.

Now - he could be playing 3d chess and want to be talked about or want it to get back to the club etc.
He could have been toying around as well - not sure why he would do that however.

But if I had to frame a market - I would say he is gone.Hope he stays.....

 

[Doggy]

Someone I know who has impeccable integrity asked Baz directly if he was going to be at the dogs next year- the answer was an emphatic no, with zero hesitation.

He could have said ""working with my manager blah blah" but he didn't.

Now - he could be playing 3d chess and want to be talked about or want it to get back to the club etc.
He could have been toying around as well - not sure why he would do that however.

But if I had to frame a market - I would say he is gone.Hope he stays.....

This sounds .... odd.

 

[Bald]

Someone I know who has impeccable integrity asked Baz directly if he was going to be at the dogs next year- the answer was an emphatic no, with zero hesitation.

He could have said ""working with my manager blah blah" but he didn't.

Now - he could be playing 3d chess and want to be talked about or want it to get back to the club etc.
He could have been toying around as well - not sure why he would do that however.

But if I had to frame a market - I would say he is gone.Hope he stays.....

Nobody with impeccable integrity would actually share information like that though.