Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

Remove this Banner Ad

WB_ said:
He's played 21, 14 and 22 games in the prior three seasons, and proven to be solid, AFL standard depth (on a minimum contract). Premature to be forcing him out after one injury interrupted season at 29/30, not 35.
Click to expand...

Firstlty, more injuries generally start to come around 30. The concussions he's had this year is a concern.

Secondly, I don't think you should carry 30 year olds that are just depth when we have adequate depth in his position already. West, Freijah, Bramble, Harmes, McNeil and Gallagher have all gone past him. Then we have others like Poulter and Baker behind them. If we bring in O'Driscoll that's another that probably over takes him, if not maybe we could get in another young player like Freijah.

This is a good draft, with good depth. I'd rather use his spot on a young player and continue to keep churning the list over.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

goodcop badcop said:
Firstlty, more injuries generally start to come around 30. The concussions he's had this year is a concern.

Secondly, I don't think you should carry 30 year olds that are just depth when we have adequate depth in his position already. West, Freijah, Bramble, Harmes, McNeil and Gallagher have all gone past him. Then we have others like Poulter and Baker behind them. If we bring in O'Driscoll that's another that probably over takes him, if not maybe we could get in another young player like Freijah.

This is a good draft, with good depth. I'd rather use his spot on a young player and continue to keep churning the list over.
Click to expand...
I agree regarding the concussions, that's a consideration the club medical staff and he will have to make at the end of the year. If they're both confident on that front, then fortunately he has no other major injury history to date.

Our depth has certainly improved in quality this year, though in Scott's favour he has more positional versatility than many of those players. If we need to create space through delisting, Keath, Bedendo and Cleary may be more immediate options.
 
What is worth more a pick 7 that might turn out to be good or a dud - just a kid and may take 3 years to make a real impact.

Last 7 years:

  • Caleb Windsor
  • Cam Mackenzie
  • Josh Ward
  • Elijah Hollands
  • Hayden Young
  • Bailey Smith
  • Hunter Clark

Only Hayden Young this year would be a comparable player (Windsor does look good though)

Or a pick 7 who has proven then can be both best 23 and had a good number of BOG games including in finals?

I would say the proven aspect increases his value ahead of a pick 7. As well as the value going up as he matures. That why the salary goes up - would you play a first year player a million a year? Value is much higher.

Bailey Smith is worth way more than pick 10 but the question is can we get fair value for him.

Pick 10 Last few years:

  • Caddy
  • Phillipou
  • Eramus
  • Zach Reid
  • Tom Green
  • Blakey
  • L O’Brien

Not that different to pick 7 but a few more misses.

What we should get is two first rounds - that is the cost in the past for this level player. The compensation system is a penalty system where you rarely get the fair value of the player.

What we will get is what people are prepared to pay - and the competitive pressure - and on our offer.

Managers will try and put emotional pressure on us. Might not go full Dodo but at least the ‘nominate a club’ is completely underhanded - club loses bargaining power to get a good deal because manager could not care less about damaging the club. And rare for clubs to oppose but some do - including us.

Hawks would likely offer a second round (first for Barass) and F1 (10-20); Geelong pick 15 and maybe F2 and who knows what else? St Kilda will come but will Bailey’s ego allow him to go? But they can and should used their pick around 4 and could trump the others and get us over the line . Would be great if others want him and he is open to them.

He be old rather keep him - if he plays on the wing and rotates mid and HFF we have a star in a position we are week.

Over then next few years he moves into mid with: Bont, Smith, Red and Sanders - this is a top level mid group.

And he plays finals for the next 5 years given our profile.

We can also call his bluff - wait and then let him go to the draft and we get compensation. Won’t be as good as a fair deal but also Smith then has to choose to take our offer or Wet Toast or North - if he goes to those teams he won’t be punishing us for the other club.

Tough job - hopefully you nail it Sam P.
 
With Geelong likely finishing top 2, we just have to get their f1 as well. Anything less would be an absolute disaster.
 
Dogs Rule said:
Does Geelong have that attitude when a player leaves their club? Of course not, they extract full value. We're not a charity.
Click to expand...

Depends on what club the player nominates.

Geelong got lucky that Kelly nominated WCE, we got unlucky that Dunkley nominated BL. It’s just the way the system works.
 
NthBondiDoggies said:
What is worth more a pick 7 that might turn out to be good or a dud - just a kid and may take 3 years to make a real impact.

Last 7 years:

  • Caleb Windsor
  • Cam Mackenzie
  • Josh Ward
  • Elijah Hollands
  • Hayden Young
  • Bailey Smith
  • Hunter Clark

Only Hayden Young this year would be a comparable player (Windsor does look good though)

Or a pick 7 who has proven then can be both best 23 and had a good number of BOG games including in finals?

I would say the proven aspect increases his value ahead of a pick 7. As well as the value going up as he matures. That why the salary goes up - would you play a first year player a million a year? Value is much higher.

Bailey Smith is worth way more than pick 10 but the question is can we get fair value for him.

Pick 10 Last few years:

  • Caddy
  • Phillipou
  • Eramus
  • Zach Reid
  • Tom Green
  • Blakey
  • L O’Brien

Not that different to pick 7 but a few more misses.

What we should get is two first rounds - that is the cost in the past for this level player. The compensation system is a penalty system where you rarely get the fair value of the player.

What we will get is what people are prepared to pay - and the competitive pressure - and on our offer.

Managers will try and put emotional pressure on us. Might not go full Dodo but at least the ‘nominate a club’ is completely underhanded - club loses bargaining power to get a good deal because manager could not care less about damaging the club. And rare for clubs to oppose but some do - including us.

Hawks would likely offer a second round (first for Barass) and F1 (10-20); Geelong pick 15 and maybe F2 and who knows what else? St Kilda will come but will Bailey’s ego allow him to go? But they can and should used their pick around 4 and could trump the others and get us over the line . Would be great if others want him and he is open to them.

He be old rather keep him - if he plays on the wing and rotates mid and HFF we have a star in a position we are week.

Over then next few years he moves into mid with: Bont, Smith, Red and Sanders - this is a top level mid group.

And he plays finals for the next 5 years given our profile.

We can also call his bluff - wait and then let him go to the draft and we get compensation. Won’t be as good as a fair deal but also Smith then has to choose to take our offer or Wet Toast or North - if he goes to those teams he won’t be punishing us for the other club.

Tough job - hopefully you nail it Sam P.
Click to expand...
If we send him to the draft, we do not get any compensation, we lose him for nothing.
Smith is not a free agent, the only way we would get compo is if we were to delist him, then he would become a delisted free agent and could pick any team he wishes.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Doggy Dan said:
When Smith didn’t commit last year, we should have actively pushed for trade options. English and Juh the same. If we want you and are committed to you, either you reciprocate in turn of we need go to scope the market while we have some leverage.
Click to expand...
So you would have traded JUH and English despite them both signing? Because Smith is not yet signed?
 
The Slitherin' Snake said:
So you would have traded JUH and English despite them both signing? Because Smith is not yet signed?
Click to expand...
Staggering some of the thought processes in this thread.

At this stage Smith had not made his intentions clear and we have looked after him well with a key role available in the future.

He re signs and all talk is superfluous with all roles having players in or developing if we like it or not.

A journo or INK farts and this thread is full of fanciful trade or vindictive appraisals of the player.

The vast majority of players supposedly leaving actually stay. Our so called journalists have more guesses than contestants in the price is right and we get all up in arms.

Take a bex, wait till we actually hear from the players or their representatives and chill out

On SM-S926B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
WB_ said:
I agree regarding the concussions, that's a consideration the club medical staff and he will have to make at the end of the year. If they're both confident on that front, then fortunately he has no other major injury history to date.

Our depth has certainly improved in quality this year, though in Scott's favour he has more positional versatility than many of those players. If we need to create space through delisting, Keath, Bedendo and Cleary may be more immediate options.
Click to expand...
Cleary had two more years. He isn’t getting delisted
 
Bazza28 said:
All good I don’t believe the gap in talent is that big if smith can get back to his best and The ACL shouldn’t have any effect on his trade value if they are will to pay him a million plus
Click to expand...
This. Geelong are chasing him and paying him a randsom for a reason. He's a gun and makes any team better. He's value is not whatever they can afford
 
Optimistic Dog said:
I would be amazed If Bailey stays. I think salary cap wise we have already budgeted for his departure.
Click to expand...
We can still afford the $800k, 2 year contract we're offering hm (taking him through to free agency).

That would be the Rayner/Rachele money or whatever, but yes, we're going after those targets with the assumption Smith leaves.
 
Will Hamill from Adelaide has been one I thought had some good traits as a defender. Turning 24 later this year. Only 45 games. Could be another Bramble in the making.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
threenewpadlocks said:
We can still afford the $800k, 2 year contract we're offering hm (taking him through to free agency).

That would be the Rayner/Rachele money or whatever, but yes, we're going after those targets with the assumption Smith leaves.
Click to expand...
And to out it simply we don't have to try and pry Smith out of our club or deal with another club to keep him and he is good value at that amount or a little more

On SM-S926B using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
BrunswickDog said:
You would be surprised how little the industry knew about Stringer at that time.

Bevo putting him out for trade was a surprise to nearly everyone
Click to expand...
Sorry, I have to disagree.

WE knew about it, there's no way 90% of the industry didn't.
 
I doubt anyone here would question the decision to delist Gowers years ago but he seems to have found his feet at Port Melbourne. Looks like he’s playing his best 2018 footy regularly.

Will probably never get another go at this age, but it struck me that he lost confidence in 2019 and never got it back. I do wonder if he’d have been able to have a good AFL career under different circumstances.
 
Anja_Nees said:
I doubt anyone here would question the decision to delist Gowers years ago but he seems to have found his feet at Port Melbourne. Looks like he’s playing his best 2018 footy regularly.

Will probably never get another go at this age, but it struck me that he lost confidence in 2019 and never got it back. I do wonder if he’d have been able to have a good AFL career under different circumstances.
Click to expand...
Was always a weapon at VFL level. Just didn’t have the tools as an undersized full forward to translate to AFL. It’s an impossible position and no one has really been successful since Mark LeCras.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

Similar threads

goodcop badcop
Analysis Draft, List and Trade Analysis
Replies
2
Views
265
SweatOnMySkin
SweatOnMySkin
Optimistic Dog
  • Locked
Game Day Dogs on a Mission V Hawks Elimination Final MCG 7.40pm 6/9/24
25 26 27 28 29
Replies
720
Views
19K
Bulldogs85
Bulldogs85
Hobdog
ACT Based Supporters
2 3
Replies
67
Views
2K
Capital_Dog
C
Kermit
MVP Ching Rd 6: Doggies d Saints
Replies
23
Views
784
Scotch N Coke Monatore
S
Next Waiting
  • Poll
Opinion Do you have faith in our list?
2 3
Replies
72
Views
4K
dogwatch
dogwatch
dogwatch
  • Sticky
List Mgmt. WB 2024 List
Replies
0
Views
3K
dogwatch
dogwatch
_Mike_
  • Sticky
Analysis 2024 Specific DT/Supercoach questions - post here
2
Replies
30
Views
4K
weltschmerz
weltschmerz

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top