Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[dogwatch]

So when is Moving Day?

Tuesday? Or will nothing of substance drop until Wednesday?

 

[Bald]

So when is Moving Day?

Tuesday? Or will nothing of substance drop until Wednesday?

Most of it will happen Wednesday afternoon. There'll be bits and bobs between now and then but I suspect most of that will be pick swaps.

 

[Rookie]

Geelong's posturing to land Bailey in the ND is ridiculous. There are several Melbourne based clubs with the ability to trade up or down on the night to get ahead of their pick and take Bailey, should they want. Geelong would also put themselves in the position of being extorted on the night by an opportunistic club. For instance, a club with pick 14 could say to Geelong, we are taking Smith, but we'll happily swap 14 and 18 if you throw in a future first.

Essendon is trading away pick 9 on the off chance that a bid comes for Kako before that - other clubs have created enough noise about drafting Kako that Essendon don't have a lot of choice.

I wouldn't want to be in a vulnerable position like that if I were Geelong. Much better to agree a price now, than get extorted at the last minute.

Ignore the theatre and posturing, Geelong have every reason to add a 2nd - or more - to the deal to avoid a more dangerous situation.

The deal will get done 100%.

 

[hujsh]

Geelong's plan to land Bailey in the ND is ridiculous. There are several Melbourne based clubs with the ability to trade up or down on the night to get ahead of their pick, should they want. Geelong would also put themselves in the position of being extorted on the night by an opportunistic club. For instance, a club with pick 14 could say to Geelong, we are taking Smith, but we'll happily swap 14 and 18 if you throw in a future first.

Essendon is trading away pick 9 on the off chance that a bid comes for Kako before that - other clubs have created enough noise about drafting Kako that Essendon don't have a lot of choice.

I wouldn't want to be in a vulnerable position like that if I were Geelong. Much better to agree a price now, than get extorted at the last minute.

Ignore the theatre and posturing, Geelong have every reason to add a 2nd - or more - to the deal to avoid a more dangerous situation.

The deal will get done 100%.

I don't think I've seen anyone mention that. Great point.

 

[Bazza28]

Would we take a future second for Caleb and trade a future 1 and 2 for pick 13 or one of Fremantle or gws picks to get ahead of the Geelong pick ?

 

[dogwatch]

Hypothetical: If Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

was in this position with another club (not us) and he was walked to the national draft by that club, where would we draft him, if at all? Would he go before pick 17 (or pick 20 perhaps which is where Geelong's pick will end up)?

Two rules: (1) ignore your current personal distaste for him but allow any public knowledge of his mental health issues and behaviours. (2) Ignore the alleged draft tampering behaviours/threats of certain parties that stand to benefit from his move.

 

[Struggle]

Hypothetical: If Bailey Smith was in this position with another club (not us) and he was walked to the national draft by that club, where would we draft him, if at all? Would he go before pick 17 (or pick 20 perhaps which is where Geelong's pick will end up)?

Two rules: (1) ignore your current personal distaste for him but allow any public knowledge of his mental health issues and behaviours. (2) Ignore the alleged draft tampering behaviours/threats of certain parties that stand to benefit from his move.

Not a draft watcher, but purely on what he's shown and the talent levels in a normal draft, I would be thinking about taking him at 7 onwards and definitely from 12
Perfect age, trains harder than anyone and has had that year to rehab the knee fully

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Didn’t Madonna do a coffee table book with a whole lot of pictures? Maybe that’s the gist of it

Yeah, but artful nudes.

 

[ScragCity]

Hypothetical: If Bailey Smith was in this position with another club (not us) and he was walked to the national draft by that club, where would we draft him, if at all? Would he go before pick 17 (or pick 20 perhaps which is where Geelong's pick will end up)?

Two rules: (1) ignore your current personal distaste for him but allow any public knowledge of his mental health issues and behaviours. (2) Ignore the alleged draft tampering behaviours/threats of certain parties that stand to benefit from his move.

I really don't think if I was a recruiter that I'd draft him before Geelongs first. He's only a decent player and comes with a lot of off-field baggage. Hasn't played his best footy for several years, now has the recurring ACL risk. Plus this year's draft has a strong top 20.

 

[Rookie]

Hypothetical: If Bailey Smith was in this position with another club (not us) and he was walked to the national draft by that club, where would we draft him, if at all? Would he go before pick 17 (or pick 20 perhaps which is where Geelong's pick will end up)?

Two rules: (1) ignore your current personal distaste for him but allow any public knowledge of his mental health issues and behaviours. (2) Ignore the alleged draft tampering behaviours/threats of certain parties that stand to benefit from his move.

St Kilda could easily find a way to trade down and get picks in the teens before Geelong, and add Bailey on the cheap.

It's the National Draft, if you enter it you have to be open to going anywhere. Even with a powerful manager, Bailey and Geelong would be taking a huge risk and opening themselves up to all sorts of additional risks, from extortion on the night to losing out to another club, to even more outlandish but technically possible accusations of draft tampering etc.

 

[Hobdog]

The only certainty I see is that the club will do some deals which some people will be filthy about, some will be accepting and pragmatic about, and some will be apathetic about.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Ash1337]

Weitering off the FA for 2025. Unlikely anyone would have had the chance of pulling him out of the Blues but the year isn't over and 3 KPD's are already locked away.

 

[Mojorisin]

St Kilda could easily find a way to trade down and get picks in the teens before Geelong, and add Bailey on the cheap.

It's the National Draft, if you enter it you have to be open to going anywhere. Even with a powerful manager, Bailey and Geelong would be taking a huge risk and opening themselves up to all sorts of additional risks, from extortion on the night to losing out to another club, to even more outlandish but technically possible accusations of draft tampering etc.

Apparently Connors has called all clubs and told them not to bother drafting Bailey as he will never play a game for them.

 

[cherrypie]

Apparently Connors has called all clubs and told them not to bother drafting Bailey as he will never play a game for them.

Doubt that’s true. Some clubs would definitely speak up if he was blatantly draft tampering like that - it does happen but not with clear threats

 

[Mojorisin]

Doubt that’s true. Some clubs would definitely speak up if he was blatantly draft tampering like that - it does happen but not with clear threats

You'd hope so but I don't have much faith in the system.

 

[El Rancho]

Would we take a future second for Caleb and trade a future 1 and 2 for pick 13 or one of Fremantle or gws picks to get ahead of the Geelong pick ?

Not sure why we'd do that tbh.
I understand some people want us to get ahead of of Geelong in the draft to put the "threat" of drafting bazw@nker again, but really, what purpose does that serve? There's no way we draft him again, just to piss the cats off. We offered him a 2yr contract hoping he would want to leave and not really fighting hard to keep him. Based on that, drafting him again would be sheer lunacy and a complete waste of a pick.
I seriously can't see why we would be even remotely interested in doing that.

 

[VitalDread]

Dogs will look to re-sign Ugle-Hagan next year alongside Bont, Richards, Treloar, Darcy and Jones

Big year of talks for Sammy Power

 

[Norm De Guerre]

I really don't think if I was a recruiter that I'd draft him before Geelongs first. He's only a decent player and comes with a lot of off-field baggage. Hasn't played his best footy for several years, now has the recurring ACL risk. Plus this year's draft has a strong top 20.

I think it's a nonsense that another club will take him in the PSD or ND. And then hope a guy with known mental health issues will just forget the last 12 months that he has clearly invested in getting to Geelong and buy into a club that he was essentially shanghaied into.

The only scenario where this is possible is one where Geelong become completely intransigent and burn their first selection on other draft capital. This kind of bad faith dealings would completely throw Smith under the bus. Something I just don't see Geelong doing given the two parties have been working towards getting him there for 12 months or more.

The deal will be what it was always going to be. Their first and swopping of various current and future picks to a point where everybody except this forum can walk away claiming some kind of win.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Hypothetical: If Bailey Smith was in this position with another club (not us) and he was walked to the national draft by that club, where would we draft him, if at all? Would he go before pick 17 (or pick 20 perhaps which is where Geelong's pick will end up)?

Two rules: (1) ignore your current personal distaste for him but allow any public knowledge of his mental health issues and behaviours. (2) Ignore the alleged draft tampering behaviours/threats of certain parties that stand to benefit from his move.

People romanticise early draft picks because of potential but every year there are a few first round flops, even in the absolute strongest drafts.

He’s a walk up start at any club and a starting midfielder at most and could play 8-10 more years. You immediately improve and he’s young enough to grow with a developing group.

If he was in the right headspace with no injury he’d comfortably go top 5.

Right now a lot of the sides before Geelong would probably err on the side of youth but there is nothing to stop a side with a later pick trading up the order to get him.

I think any of Essendon, Carlton, Hawthorn, Melbourne or Collingwood would objectively be interested and pay a pick valued anywhere from about 11 onwards.

 

[W W Biscuit]

Apparently Connors has called all clubs and told them not to bother drafting Bailey as he will never play a game for them.

I have emailed the club to express my grave concerns. I encourage other members to do the same.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Dogs will look to re-sign Ugle-Hagan next year alongside Bont, Richards, Treloar, Darcy and Jones

Big year of talks for Sammy Power

Bont contract already well down the line. Would expect an announcement sooner than later.

 

[Unorth]

Dogs will look to re-sign Ugle-Hagan next year alongside Bont, Richards, Treloar, Darcy and Jones

Big year of talks for Sammy Power

Just about reason enough to move on Jack and Caleb without being pressured into paying any salary.

 

[RWnBluey]

I really don't think if I was a recruiter that I'd draft him before Geelongs first. He's only a decent player and comes with a lot of off-field baggage. Hasn't played his best footy for several years, now has the recurring ACL risk. Plus this year's draft has a strong top 20.

BOG in two finals 2021 then 2022 was statistically his best year before having a down 2023. As for the ACL, the current Norm Smith medalist just came back from one.

You might err on taking him top 5-10 but he’s a proven commodity who’s only 23yo and THE most marketable player in the game. I’m taking that over an unproven draft pick outside top 10 any day of the week.

 

[RWnBluey]

Bont contract already well down the line. Would expect an announcement sooner than later.

The mass exodus continues.

 

[VitalDread]

Just about reason enough to move on Jack and Caleb without being pressured into paying any salary.

most of that money i would be throwing at Darcy