Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[threenewpadlocks]

When did I say never? It's just not anywhere near as likely..

This is especially true as even compared to 10 years ago (plus the fact that they lopped off the number of main-list players as part of the COVID cuts), teams recruit more free agents, SSP and mid-season draft picks, and Cat B rookies, and look to promote these players.

Combined with the fact that teams simply have more evidence of looking at past draft picks and understand that if you recruit a mature ager that might contribute for half a season that's still comparable to the fact that half the time your third-round 18 year old may never make it to AFL level to contribute out of the list spot they've taken (Robbie McComb was a better use of a list spot than Declan Hamilton).

More flexible rookie list options also means that teams would rather commit to a player for one year rather than two in these mechanisms that drafting a player requires.

Compared to the time that we were drafting the Dales and Williamses of the world it's just not as likely. As an aside it makes rating these picks for the points purposes ridiculous (the points value was mathematically calculated on that old basis until it gets its update for next year). There are odd years that teams sometimes do invest, especially when they see it as a "deep" draft where you'd swap a pick 45 for a pick 35 in a "weak" year or whatever (and why we took Freijah, Smith and O'Driscoll), but generally, it bottoms out pretty quickly from there.

 

[Philthy1]

It’s just so frustrating we’re losing all these AA caliber players for peanuts, especially after the Dunkley deal.

Jack Mac and CD are not AA calibre any longer.

 

[Bulldogs85]

Daniel was AA in 2020 5 years ago by start of next year Macrae was last AA 2021 4 years ago come start of next season

Smith has never made the AA squad

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Daniel was AA in 2020 5 years ago by start of next year Macrae was last AA 2021 4 years ago come start of next season

Plus for every likelihood that they return to some of their old form there's the alternative likelihood that both collapse in such a heap, continuing their trajectory since that time, that they won't even get a game for a bad team, let alone a good one.

North have already recruited plenty of formerly good players for a bad team that they think they can give a game by virtue of the fact that they're a worse team, but have turned out to be fringe talents even at an already-bad North. Jaidyn Stephenson anyone? Hugh Greenwood was half the player for North in his first two years than he was at Gold Coast, and wasn't getting a game for the third of the three years that North had committed to him, which may be the case for the third year that Macrae and Daniel are at their new clubs.

 

[ScottyDogg]

If we lose Macrae, CD and Baz for pick 20 and 3 picks around 50, that would be the most disastrous trade period in the history of AFL.

Not if it frees up the cash needed to bring actual best 22 players in or to keep the ones we have. We’d have a fair bit of cap invested in those three.

 

[maddog37]

Geelong is committed to Smith

If the deal goes south, we risk losing a draftee that might end up as good as Smith
But Geelong risks losing Smith himself.

And in this 'nobody wins' scenario, we gain credibility in future trade negotiations, whilst geelongs reputation as a potential suitor takes a hit.

They have more at stake.

I’m also interested on how a failed trade would affect the relationship between cotton on and Smith and to a lesser extent with Geelong.

They have a pretty heavy investment in this situation and would prefer Geelong do the trade than not. That must be some added impetus to the Cats to offer up decent compensation.

We really need to hold a strong line here.

 

[Sentinel]

I think you're the one rewriting history. It was a s**t deal at the time.
Remember what Essendope offered only a year earlier. He went on to bin our B&F and was our second best midfielder behind Bont.

Pre any FA compo, priority picks, F-S or NGA bids etc:

• In 2020, Essendon reportedly offered 2020 pick 7 and a 2021 F2 (pick 30).
• Instead we got 1 x GF appearance, 1 x B&F year + 2022 pick 21, 2023 F1 (pick 17), 2023 F2 (pick 35), 2023 F4 (pick 53), and gave up 2023 F3 (pick 46) and 2023 F3 (pick 49).

The trade alone wasn't all that far off the reported Essendon offer (picks 17 + 21 plus some later pick shuffling, instead of picks 7 + 30), and you have to factor in the additional years of service we got out of Dunkley plus giving ourselves the chance to convince him to stay.

 

[Dogs Rule]

It’s just so frustrating we’re losing all these AA caliber players for peanuts, especially after the Dunkley deal.

But according to some, we can do nothing. We're powerless, just rollover and take what you've given like a good little puppy

 

[Pencil case]

Not if it frees up the cash needed to bring actual best 22 players in or to keep the ones we have. We’d have a fair bit of cap invested in those three.

Problem is we can’t get any big fish to make use of the cap space. I hate to be negative but I’m quite worried. I guess it’s never as bad as it seems.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Re the Smith/Dunkley discourse, there is obviously a point where you are cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Any draftee could be a flop (see Tim Walsh

Tim Walsh

Age

39

Ht

196cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

3.0

1star

K

2.0

1star

HB

1.0

1star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

1.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

3.0

1star

K

2.0

1star

HB

1.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

G

1.0

4star

, Cale Morton

Cale Morton

Age

34

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.9

5star

K

10.8

4star

HB

8.1

5star

M

5.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

CL

1.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

17.0

5star

K

10.2

4star

HB

6.8

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.0

3star

etc) but obviously you’re much more likely to get a quality player early.

We took players like Ward, Dunkley and Richards in the late teens and early 20s (we’ve also had some flops in that range too).

By the time you’re past the mid-20s under 50% of players go on to become regular selections and it nosedives after that.

If you end up with the opportunity to get two players of the calibre of, say, Richards as compensation for someone like Smith then you have to be very careful about rejecting it to make a point.

The player is gone anyway, and if you nail the selections you will forget Smith extremely quickly. We got screwed on Ward (with no choice) in terms of the selection, particularly compared to the Scully compo, but Macrae was obviously more than enough. No one cares about Stringer either.

 

[yebach]

So we got pick 21, a F1 (~pick 14 value at the time), a F2 (Pick ~30 at the time) and gave back two future 3rd rounders (both pick ~50 at the time), getting back a 4th rounder.

3rd and 4th rounders are a bit of a wash, maybe equivalent to having a pick in the 30's a bit later.

Ultimately, if you had a single pick in the top 10, what would you trade those picks for as a collective? Don't look at points or whatever, just, what would a team that held a single pick in the top 10 would be willing to break that pick up if they got that F1 + pick 21?

I would say pick 8ish.

Which was fine for Dunkley. He had excellent form specifically before he was traded, but it was just that, form, and we also had to consider his more patchy career form and limitations as a player, without dismissing the fact that he was our best player for something like 5 or 6 of the last 10 games he played for us.

We also have to consider that while Brisbane had made other trades for points for Ashcroft/Fletcher, other than demanding the 3rd rounders back, that was essentially the maximum that they were allowed to trade. Maybe in a neutral setting we could have gotten more, but we had effectively squeezed all the blood out of the stone of the one team that we had agreed contract terms to.

Essendon was also two years earlier, not one (end of 2020 cause he was apparently fed up with his teammates in the bubble). Of course they offered more, he was in contract, not out of it. We rejected it, because he was on a cheap contract salary wise and we knew he would still try his best for the club under contract, which proved to be the case.

If I'm Geelong and I'm reading your post.
I'm trading away this year first (probably pick 20) and next year's first for Huston say. And I'm saying to the Doggies here's a couple of second rounders for Smith as he's just come off an ACL, out of contract and he has never been in your top 6 players.

 

[yebach]

Chad Warner was pick 39 there is always talent available and again Daniel is on good coin offering us little

Maybe we should demand pick 71 & 105 in any trade we do because we picked up Lake & Grant with those picks?
That's our FB & CHB's sorted for the next decade.

 

[Mutt]

If I'm Geelong and I'm reading your post.
I'm trading away this year first (probably pick 20) and next year's first for Huston say. And I'm saying to the Doggies here's a couple of second rounders for Smith as he's just come off an ACL, out of contract and he has never been in your top 6 players.

And should Geelong do that, we should walk Smith to the draft. Geelong won't risk that because they will send the competition a message that they will not always act in good faith. They would also not get Smith and may well mightily piss off Cotton On, not to mention Paul Connors, Smith's agent.

 

[JTCWBFC]

If I'm Geelong and I'm reading your post.
I'm trading away this year first (probably pick 20) and next year's first for Huston say. And I'm saying to the Doggies here's a couple of second rounders for Smith as he's just come off an ACL, out of contract and he has never been in your top 6 players.

I hope they do that & we walk him to the draft.

Time to take a stand.

 

[Doggy]

I hope they do that & we walk him to the draft.

Time to take a stand.

100% he would go to the draft or they'd have to hand over someone like SDK

 

[mattwa]

Did Bont Adz Libba Sanders Ed retire ?

No but Libba and Adz injury history is scary and the age profile isn't great. They also got torn a new one by the hawks so I dont think it's in as good a shape as everyone thinks

 

[redmania]

100% he would go to the draft or they'd have to hand over someone like SDK

This just will not happen. We will posture and yield.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If I'm Geelong and I'm reading your post.
I'm trading away this year first (probably pick 20) and next year's first for Huston say. And I'm saying to the Doggies here's a couple of second rounders for Smith as he's just come off an ACL, out of contract and he has never been in your top 6 players.

Geelong can say that, we can point back to elements of his impressive play such as his hard running and several match-winning performances as the outright best or second-best player in the game (he has 8+ coaches votes, 8 times in his young career, that many of the top young midfielders in the league are yet to match).

At some point there has to be a equilibrium point as the Dogs and Cats seek to find a trade that works for both parties with the PSD as the fallback. There's debate and disagreement on whether this would truly happen but I think everyone here agrees that a trade will be, at least, at the very least, one of Geelong's two first round picks over these two years.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Presumably SDK is considering the fact that he has a six-year offer on the table from us, maybe going back to Geelong and seeking to extend his contract there (on good money), or considering whether he should or not request a trade now, or if he's out of contract next year, or if Geelong should keep him anyway as a contracted player for one more year even if he's requested a trade.

All of that will influence the Smith deal and is yet to play out.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Let's flip it, let's say Smith was leaving Geelong to head to us. Same circumstances.

Would Geelong bend over and yield?

Course not.

 

[Doggy]

This just will not happen. We will posture and yield.

Never speak in absolutes. We will get more than their shitty first rounder

 

[Claudonious]

If we lose Macrae, CD and Baz for pick 20 and 3 picks around 50, that would be the most disastrous trade period in the history of AFL.

Donald... is that you?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Let's flip it, let's say Smith was leaving Geelong to head to us. Same circumstances.

Would Geelong bend over and yield?

Course not.

In fairness there have been times where we have gotten clubs to yield (a little), including Crameri and Keath. Adelaide wanted to keep Keath but they didn't have much leverage for an out-of-contract player that had a better contract elsewhere and wanted to move back to his home state, some of which is similar to Smith here. We certainly underpaid a little (around a pick 30 worth) for a player that had just had two games where he was BOG from defence, a rare feat, the season before.

 

[lachy]

Let's flip it, let's say Smith was leaving Geelong to head to us. Same circumstances.

Would Geelong bend over and yield?

Course not.

How many times in the last 15 years have we been bent over supposedly and that player has embarrassed us??

 

[Bulldogs85]

How many times in the last 15 years have we been bent over supposedly and that player has embarrassed us??

Can’t even think of any player that has embarrassed us after they left the club