Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[threenewpadlocks]

I don't love the system, I have a million ideas for how I would fix it, none of which have no flaws.

But the system is what it is and right now, if we were Geelong, I would be livid if we offered any more than 17 for Bailey.

That's fine, but then don't dismiss the risk involved, and be be prepared as Geelong to accept that your relationship with Bailey is different than just trading for him from the beginning.

As people have pointed out, at the very least, it might stress out Smith. That alone might be worth extra draft picks.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

That reads like we still have a couple of irons in the fire.
I think we can carry Clarke for another year and give the kid a chance but with JJ it just seems like his body is letting him down and Bramble is ahead of him a well.

Adelaide delisted four players that have all shown something at AFL level, for example.

It's easy on a case-by-case basis to suggest that we wouldn't recruit any given player, but when you consider the dozens of players delisted across all clubs, we might see something that we like. A bit like Bramble.

 

[Mutt]

Shopping around as in getting some interested in using a draft pick on him?

That....or just making a trade offer to us which we could try to sell to Smith.

 

[Pencil case]

Harsh on Clarke imo

He doesn’t have it imo. Would rather keep JJ on for one year.

 

[Mofra]

Adelaide delisted four players that have all shown something at AFL level, for example.

It's easy on a case-by-case basis to suggest that we wouldn't recruit any given player, but when you consider the dozens of players delisted across all clubs, we might see something that we like. A bit like Bramble.

Yeah, although one delisting was sadly concussion related.
I really want Clarke to make it but I have concerns.

 

[Mutt]

I agree that Smith almost certainly makes his way to Geelong through one mechanism or another.

But it's also not quite right to suggest that even if/when Geelong draft Smith, even if they pay less in a draft output than a trade with us, that it's all smooth for Geelong, or that Geelong want a draft rather than a trade to be their starting point with Smith being a listed player.

I don't think it's anywhere near as likely that another team drafts Smith as people are making it out here, but at the same time, any probability above zero has to factor into Geelong's calculations, and the probability is above zero.

Geelong might have to ultimately restructure their contract offer to Geelong, which is something that they would obviously want to avoid.

And more broadly speaking, if they continue to not pay up in a trade, that might force the AFL to re-examine their overall list rules, especially in the context of a player moving from a team lower on the ladder to a team higher on the ladder. There's no point blowing up the whole system just for Bailey Smith.

The AFL might look deeper into Geelong's overall contract/draft tampering and third-party payments, which Geelong would want to ignore.

So it's not as if Geelong can just walk him to the draft without any risk/no additional loss involved.

The Dogs can still use that as leverage.

Well put, 3NP. This is how we try to create leverage. It may need to be nuanced and not a sledgehammer, but we need to make it difficult for Smith and Geelong to not act in good faith.

 

[BLACAE]

You should always ditch Ch7 if possible, just for Foxtel no ads after goals.

I like SEN commentary and now you can align it with the Fox coverage. That's how I run it now.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bald]

That's fine, but then don't dismiss the risk involved, and be be prepared as Geelong to accept that your relationship with Bailey is different than just trading for him from the beginning.

As people have pointed out, at the very least, it might stress out Smith. That alone might be worth extra draft picks.

I understand technically there’s a chance another club will draft him, my view is simply that no other club will and I think deep down everybody shouting out technical hypotheticals knows that.

And no, I don’t think Smith is stressed about this at all. There’s a reason a house was purchased down the highway, his management handle everything and as far as he’s concerned he’s in Geelong in 2025. Nothing is going to change that.

 

[Testekill]

HS- Owes asking for over 700k per year

Tell him he's dreaming

 

[Mutt]

I understand technically there’s a chance another club will draft him, my view is simply that no other club will and I think deep down everybody shouting out technical hypotheticals knows that.

And no, I don’t think Smith is stressed about this at all. There’s a reason a house was purchased down the highway, his management handle everything and as far as he’s concerned he’s in Geelong in 2025. Nothing is going to change that.

The pressure needs to be exerted on Geelong - not so much Smith.

Geelong won't want to have to draft him. There is always the risk, however small, that it will backfire on them. Geelong need to be seen to be reasonable and also won't want their bluff called as it will impact their leverage in similar future trades and make them a risky proposition for player managers trying to engineer a deal to Geelong.

Everybody thinks that a trade with Geelong will get done but it's how you get there that is important. Leave no stone unturned should be our position, otherwise we are just price takers and will always be seen that way.

 

[Doggy]

Tell him he's dreaming

Apparently not true

 

[threenewpadlocks]

There’s a reason a house was purchased down the highway, his management handle everything

Or Geelong could have been telling Smith and his management that they would get the trade done, giving Smith confidence to make that purchase.

Dogs might be inferring that commitment by Geelong, using it as leverage, because of the fact that Geelong and Smith are in deeper with each other without the trade rules or the willingness to pay up in a trade having caught up with them.

It can go both ways.

 

[Mojorisin]

Tell him he's dreaming

He is actually asking for nearly half that

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Hit the posturing Geelong mouth breathers and their media propagandists with some facts.

An out of contract (yes) Tim Kelly attracted 14, 18, 24 and 37 for Geelong.

It was done early as well. No fuss. Well done Eagles. No d*ing around by the receiving club, no posturing, no Cotton On and no dodgy s* necessary.

Tim Kelly was mature age phenom coming off an AA year where he finished 5th in the Brownlow count, when this trade happened.

Everything Kane Cornes says about the Bulldogs is calculated to undermine the club, even the nominally positive terms he occasionally uses to describe about our talent, are only delivered to undermine the coaching staff.

I think his severely biased, often maliciously motivated, commentary should be ignored by all football fans, but especially Bulldogs fans.

Cane is a big fan of American sports and its media where its necessary to be a massive shit talker to stand out from a crowded field.

And because the only way anybody associated with teh game knows to innovate is too imitate. He clearly recognised where a football media landscape devoid of such shit talkers was headed and then proceeded to create his own mountain of shit that he could plant his flag on. Given he has just signed a very lucrative contract with teh game FTA broadcaster and his coming omnipresence across the game. One would have to say that it's been a very successful strategy for him and his broadcast bosses. The football public subjected to his broadcasting style, not so much.

As I understand it. Next year we will have the option as to which of the two broadcasters commentary teams we listen to. Personally I'll listen to the lesser of two evils and switch to whoever is in Fox. Just like I do by not listening to SEN.

Choice is good.

Never thought it possible, but Corns is dragging the footy media down an even deeper gutter. He was known as a shit bloke by his teammates back in his playing days, so doesn’t surprise he’s now the person he is.

Every opinion he has is for clicks. He doesn’t give a **** about repercussions on the people it effects, being the players he discusses.

He is the lowest of grubs and really hope he gets hit with the karma bus one day.

What are these repercussions you speak of?

AFLMedia is less accountable than the Israeli army.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Pretty good case study of just how fecked the system is.

 

[BLACAE]

Someone else said it, but I'd love the club to be actively trying to get a pick ahead of Geelong and telling them that a trade needs to be done, or he's not getting there.

Absolutely sick of this flipping bullshit. Time to play hard ball, use our F1, second, and maybe a 3rd this year to get one of Richmond's. We'll have to pay over, but it's a small price to ensure we're not fleeced.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Why did West Coast for Tim Kelly then?

Because Wells was their list manager, but Mackie has taken over and tries to screw clubs over. Wells recognised that a club like Geelong that trades a lot,they need to have a good reputation.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Cane is a big fan of American sports and its media where its necessary to be a massive shit talker to stand out from a crowded field.

And because the only way anybody associated with teh game knows to innovate is too imitate. He clearly recognised where a football media landscape devoid of such shit talkers was headed and then proceeded to create his own mountain of shit that he could plant his flag on. Given he has just signed a very lucrative contract with teh game FTA broadcaster and his coming omnipresence across the game. One would have to say that it's been a very successful strategy for him and his broadcast bosses. The football public subjected to his broadcasting style, not so much.

I have no issue with this generally, but:

• Those shit talkers in America are typically far more charismatic and more expressive than in Kaiyne. Colin Cowherd talks absolute shit, but his rhythms of talking and the way he links information together is almost hypnotic. It's entertaining and good communication, even if the content is crap.
• Caene doesn't solely act as a shit talker, as the Americans do. He'll write articles for The Age which are explicitly not to stir shit, it's to be at least be taken as a serious, intelligent observer of the game. Similar with his work on radio.

Don't confuse criticising the intention with criticising the quality of it and the strength of the commitment. If Kane wants to be a shit talker, go for it, but we're allowed to have a go at the fact he's not consistent and not very good at it.

 

[Scotch N Coke Monatore]

Does that mean Keath is done?

I'm going to miss his antics when he has a mark or a free kick. Always a heart stopper.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I understand technically there’s a chance another club will draft him, my view is simply that no other club will and I think deep down everybody shouting out technical hypotheticals knows that.

And no, I don’t think Smith is stressed about this at all. There’s a reason a house was purchased down the highway, his management handle everything and as far as he’s concerned he’s in Geelong in 2025. Nothing is going to change that.

Yes because Geelong promised him they would trade for him. So come on Geelong cough up.

 

[grassman75]

Agree with the above. If at the end of 2026 Butters is out contract snd nominates us, and we have crap picks I won't care.

You can guarantee Cornes et al will be calling for 3 first rounders and all the shit that he’s said about the Smith trade

 

[Hoges64]

I like SEN commentary and now you can align it with the Fox coverage. That's how I run it now.

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

This is great for the 6 minutes that Kayo / Foxtel runs smoothly, and then it buffers and you have to readjust. Then three minutes later it buffers again. Then 4 minutes later after that. Then you get a nice little reprieve of 8 minutes before it buffers again.

 

[dogwatch]

Having just read about 150 posts to see what's news I discovered a lot of discussion about a certain germo whose favourite team is Port (seriously folks if you must encourage his behaviour by talking about him can you take it to the WhatThey'reSaying thread or start a Voldemort thread or something?) and the rest of it was mostly sharing opinions about the likely move of Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

to Geelong. That's fair enough for this thread but none of it is news, just shooting the breeze about what he's worth, the flaws of the trading system, etc.

The only bit of actual news I could find was that Chook and JJ have been told to wait on possible contract renewals. (Thank you Pencil case !)

In past off-seasons I've posted a thread on completed changes to the list, trades, draft order etc but I see _Mike_ has already done a sticky that covers most of it. Happy with that.

But for people like me who don't want to spend all day in this thread and just want to check in for 10 minutes a day to find out what the new developments are, can we just have a news-only thread? It doesn't have to be limited to completed deals, it could be club announcements, new players asking for a trade to us, or away from us, etc. I don't mind who starts one (I'm happy to do it) but just thought I'd float the idea first in case there's already a better way to get straight to the WB-specific news through BF.

If nobody else has this problem please ignore. I'll just have to hope I can find the new developments in some of the media or AFL websites. I just find them either too hit & miss or too chatty (like they assume you already know all the news). That's why I'd prefer to go through this board. As just one example I'm still not sure why we're talking about Caleb Daniel

35

Caleb Daniel

Age

28

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

moving. Is this a trade request or just media conjecture? There's nothing readily visible on the WB website about it (not even about Macrae for that matter ... but maybe that has already been archived?)


And while I'm in the mood, I have another gripe ... why is there no emoji for old man yelling at clouds?

 

[Bald]

The pressure needs to be exerted on Geelong - not so much Smith.

Geelong won't want to have to draft him. There is always the risk, however small, that it will backfire on them. Geelong need to be seen to be reasonable and also won't want their bluff called as it will impact their leverage in similar future trades and make them a risky proposition for player managers trying to engineer a deal to Geelong.

Everybody thinks that a trade with Geelong will get done but it's how you get there that is important. Leave no stone unturned should be our position, otherwise we are just price takers and will always be seen that way.

Perhaps it's been a bit lost in what I've been saying. I want as much for Bailey as we can get, I want a future first round pick and a second round pick, hell I want more than that, but I'm just being realistic.

No club is going to draft Bailey Smith knowing full well he doesn't want to go to their club, so the Dogs have a week to either convince Bailey and his management to open up his options (which I'm sure they've tried to do for as long as they've known he wants to leave) OR they need to hope a club will ignore Bailey's desires and draft a player that's openly wanting to go elsewhere. Given neither of these things are actually going to happen, there's really no reason for Geelong to offer us any more than it would otherwise cost them to draft Bailey.

Now - I realise the risk of another club drafting him isn't zero so of course the best case scenario for Bailey, his management, his new club and us is that Geelong trade for Bailey, but the best case scenario and the next best case scenario for Geelong isn't really a divide so great that it's worth them giving up anything extra of substance for it to happen.

 

[dergert]

Stringer wants a trade to the giants. Could bode well for O'Halloran