Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Proffessor]

I beg of you, please look at the calendar. It's 2024, nearly 2025. It's not 2016 and it's not even 2021. Long long gone.

Look at their output in 2024 and shave an extra 10 per cent off that.

Things are never as bad or good as they seem.

What’s done is done, and we will try to make the best of it moving forward but I don’t think we do ourselves any favours by continually pushing proven talent out the door before their time. Such treatment will be noticed by every player on the list, and most people across the AFL community.

We have just 3 players left from our 2016 premiership team, which was lauded at the time for its youth.

There are now more players from the 2016 team on other AFL lists than we have on our own.

Overall, I think it is clear we have not rewarded sustained good performance appropriately.

If the club doesn’t show loyalty to its players then it cannot expect loyalty from them in return.

You reap what you sow.

 

[SharkMeister4]

Our recent history suggests that we only sign our young players for 2-3 yrs max.

If we offered Smith a good deal at the time that at least took him to free agency I'm not convinced he doesn't accept.

Counterpoint to this though, is that Smith didn't have a good 2023 at all and then did a knee for 2024. While we didnt get the trade capital we wanted, we would all be sitting here very nervous about another 5 years of an underperforming star coming off a knee taking a signficant chunk of the salary cap.

As much as it sucks to lose a player, and his ceiling is bloody high, I'd much rather be in the position we are right now than having him burning a hole in our salary cap while playing stupid games against our culture and coach

 

[Angak]

Counterpoint to this though, is that Smith didn't have a good 2023 at all and then did a knee for 2024. While we didnt get the trade capital we wanted, we would all be sitting here very nervous about another 5 years of an underperforming star coming off a knee taking a signficant chunk of the salary cap.

As much as it sucks to lose a player, and his ceiling is bloody high, I'd much rather be in the position we are right now than having him burning a hole in our salary cap while playing stupid games against our culture and coach

This is a reasonable position to hold.

I guess it comes to your appetite for risk. My threshold is higher than others on here.

 

[Foxman98]

He’s beautiful

 

[TiAn_]

Our recent history suggests that we only sign our young players for 2-3 yrs max.

If we offered Smith a good deal at the time that at least took him to free agency I'm not convinced he doesn't accept.

Only last year we signed Aaron Naughton for 9 years as a 23 years old, after signing him for 5 years as a 19 year old.

 

[DannyB4]

I don’t think you quite comprehended my tongue in cheek post…

Sorry, sometimes it's seriously hard to tell these days.

 

[SharkMeister4]

This is a reasonable position to hold.

I guess it comes to your appetite for risk. My threshold is higher than others on here.

Fair enough, and at the end of the day we will have to be lucky to find a player of Smiths talent at what we got for him.

Fwiw I don't think him having signed a longer contract would mean he'd still be at the Dogs, we just would have gotten more picks for him. He had completely clocked out

 

[lachy]

Your not seriously suggesting that we didn't unders for Dunkley or smith?

Where are actual facts that support we clearly got unders. Went through the facts of Dunkley and given what we got out of him whilst not getting unders whilst he was under contract would suggest that overall that was a wise move.

Given Smiths off field issues, very poor form in 2023 and ACL in 2024 and the fact that even if he was a restricted free agent the best we would have got for him was 3 picks earlier and not got Kennedy, what are you suggesting that could have happened that actually demonstrates we clearly got unders?

 

[DannyB4]

Looks as though the ACL injury plus his existing mental health issues really did a number on him.

Maybe needed to get out of Melbourne but still be within driving distance to family and friends.

It makes sense, unfortunately. Life is pretty good out Barwon Heads/Torquay way.

I hope the ocean swallows up all the beaches.

 

[DannyB4]

Nah, I'm not falling for the 'lifestyle' PR spin. The way he treated the club on the way out is what'll stick with me and that's got nothing to do with the 'coastal lifestyle/fresh start' crap.

Footballers can afford to live and travel anywhere they like. He could've lived in Torquay and travelled to Footscray. There are plenty of us who travel an hour to get to work every day who live a hell of a lot closer to Melbourne. It's a cop out. It doesn't take Einstein to realise the factors behind the move and no doubt it was in the works for years.

Macca lived in Kew and travelled across the bridge to get to work. Same with Treloar.

Daniher literally lived in another state and managed it fine.

Not buying the PR spin from Smith.

 

[the conch]

In retrospect.

Baz has certainly made me appreciate Dunkley a lot more.

Both knew they were gone for more than a year.

One was the epitome of professionalism in his last year with us, played out of his skin, and had the guts to front up to the B&F, which wouldn’t have been easy.

And the other, even while injured and unavailable, made himself look like a twit, all season long. From posting himself at the F1 while we were in Ballarat to ****ing off to Europe in winter to ditching the B&F because he couldn’t face the music.

I think Baz will be a good player for Geelong, health permitting. I don’t necessarily begrudge him for leaving because we obviously wanted him gone, lowballed him to push him out. I actually would prefer to keep him purely for on field production.

But my god. What a headache. Not surprised Bont and Libba did the most telling move of this generation…unfollowing on Insta.

Nail the draft pick and we can all pretend he was never here.

Didn’t know the insta thing. Be interesting to know reasons down the track. But i don’t like the club pedestalling young players. I think the club has to look hard at what happened with Bailey Smith and Dunkley and do better. Not just with how it ended.

 

[BrisDog]

Looks as though the ACL injury plus his existing mental health issues really did a number on him.

Maybe needed to get out of Melbourne but still be within driving distance to family and friends.

It makes sense, unfortunately. Life is pretty good out Barwon Heads/Torquay way.

So much rubbish is written about grown men having to travel distances to see their friends and family. I know many who drive daily from Geelong or Torquay to Melbourne CBD to go and earn 100k a year. ‘But his family is from Brighton and now he needs to get over the Westgate to get to training’. These blokes are not 4 year olds.

For 1 million a year I would happily live in Sudan and FaceTime my family.

 

[BrisDog]

Macca lived in Kew and travelled across the bridge to get to work. Same with Treloar.

Daniher literally lived in another state and managed it fine.

Not buying the PR spin from Smith.

My god - what a load of shit from Smith.

These private school kids are weak and cannot lie to save themselves.

 

[the conch]

It's coherent but incredibly self-centred. Speaking like the world revolves around you, completely oblivious to the fact that he's just a cog of a culture (the club, the sport, the league, the business empire of Cotton On etc.)

Notice how everything he says is about what the club could do for him and nothing about the joy or privilege of putting on the jumper or representing the western suburbs or at the very least being thankful of the fact that he could spend time laughing with his team-mates (or whatever).

Of course, on top of that, the self-centred belief that Smith has that just because he's out of contract he's entitled to get to where he wants, ambivalent to the fact that the Dogs were the ones that supported and invested in him, and would have also seen no issue with seeing him leave as a free agent is also there. Even if all of what he said is true, the humility to understand that in the context of the wider AFL ecosystem and list management rules, his club is just one of 18, and he's just one of 800 players.

Understand that this is completely armchair psychologist and I don't think it's necessarily making him a bad person or whatever but he really does come across as a narcissist.

Yea, but … a lot of young blokes are like that. He was feted with stuff outside his control maybe club could have protected him more. Too flashy, good looking, marketable for his own good, like a child actor / big hit muso, Steve Kilbey
I hope with maturity and change of scene his better nature will come out and I’d really like to see him playing his best. I remember watching him clisely and phenomenol gut runner up and down the ground. Like one or two extra playrrs on the ground at his best.

It's coherent but incredibly self-centred. Speaking like the world revolves around you, completely oblivious to the fact that he's just a cog of a culture (the club, the sport, the league, the business empire of Cotton On etc.)

Notice how everything he says is about what the club could do for him and nothing about the joy or privilege of putting on the jumper or representing the western suburbs or at the very least being thankful of the fact that he could spend time laughing with his team-mates (or whatever).

Of course, on top of that, the self-centred belief that Smith has that just because he's out of contract he's entitled to get to where he wants, ambivalent to the fact that the Dogs were the ones that supported and invested in him, and would have also seen no issue with seeing him leave as a free agent is also there. Even if all of what he said is true, the humility to understand that in the context of the wider AFL ecosystem and list management rules, his club is just one of 18, and he's just one of 800 players.

Understand that this is completely armchair psychologist and I don't think it's necessarily making him a bad person or whatever but he really does come across as a narcissist.

He’s a just a young bloke too flashy and marketable for his own good and without the maturity. Like a child pop star. One of the best gut runners I’ve ever seen however.
Wish him well and the wisdom to reflect as to what went down and didn’t work out… as too the Dogs should do.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Things are never as bad or good as they seem.

What’s done is done, and we will try to make the best of it moving forward but I don’t think we do ourselves any favours by continually pushing proven talent out the door before their time. Such treatment will be noticed by every player on the list, and most people across the AFL community.

We have just 3 players left from our 2016 premiership team, which was lauded at the time for its youth.

There are now more players from the 2016 team on other AFL lists than we have on our own.

Overall, I think it is clear we have not rewarded sustained good performance appropriately.

If the club doesn’t show loyalty to its players then it cannot expect loyalty from them in return.

You reap what you sow.

What?

2016 is almost nine years ago. Time moves on.

Again, yet again, Smith chose to move on, he was sweet talked by Geelong and clearly had cracked the s**** because he didn't get what he wanted. Great for a club's culture (apart from all the cocaine stuff and rampant narcissism and all that).

Wonder your thoughts on Collingwood moving on Ginnivan last year? Good move? He went 'before his time' yeah?

The output of Macrae and Daniel on field was clearly much lower than ever before and you could argue the game is quickly going past both of them. Don't pretend they're at their peak or anywhere close. Solid contributors, but only on a good day and those days have been getting further apart.

As for loyalty, we showed enormous loyalty to Daniel and Macrae - neither were forced out the door. They opted to pursue better opportunities and Caleb wouldn't go unless we got a good deal. That's a sign of loyalty and a great mutual relationship right there.

Smith deserved not a scrap of loyalty because he showed not a scrap towards us.

But continue catastrophising and buying into the bull**** narrative from our media haters who have their own personal axes to grind, mainly with the coach.

 

[Struggle]

Things are never as bad or good as they seem.

What’s done is done, and we will try to make the best of it moving forward but I don’t think we do ourselves any favours by continually pushing proven talent out the door before their time. Such treatment will be noticed by every player on the list, and most people across the AFL community.

We have just 3 players left from our 2016 premiership team, which was lauded at the time for its youth.

There are now more players from the 2016 team on other AFL lists than we have on our own.

Overall, I think it is clear we have not rewarded sustained good performance appropriately.

If the club doesn’t show loyalty to its players then it cannot expect loyalty from them in return.

You reap what you sow.

Richmond have something like 4 from 2017, possibly 5 if they keep a completely cooked mcintosh

Lists change over time

 

[Libbaaaa]

Macca lived in Kew and travelled across the bridge to get to work. Same with Treloar.

Daniher literally lived in another state and managed it fine.

Not buying the PR spin from Smith.

He would have gone to the Gold Coast if he wanted to be a professional footballer yet recognised by nobody.

 

[Proffessor]

What?

2016 is almost nine years ago. Time moves on.

Again, yet again, Smith chose to move on, he was sweet talked by Geelong and clearly had cracked the s**** because he didn't get what he wanted. Great for a club's culture (apart from all the cocaine stuff and rampant narcissism and all that).

Wonder your thoughts on Collingwood moving on Ginnivan last year? Good move? He went 'before his time' yeah?

The output of Macrae and Daniel on field was clearly much lower than ever before and you could argue the game is quickly going past both of them. Don't pretend they're at their peak or anywhere close. Solid contributors, but only on a good day and those days have been getting further apart.

As for loyalty, we showed enormous loyalty to Daniel and Macrae - neither were forced out the door. They opted to pursue better opportunities and Caleb wouldn't go unless we got a good deal. That's a sign of loyalty and a great mutual relationship right there.

Smith deserved not a scrap of loyalty because he showed not a scrap towards us.

But continuing catastrophising and buying into the bull**** narrative from our media haters who have their own personal axes to grind, mainly with the coach.

Daniel and Macrae were treated appallingly at the selection table this year. Regularly overlooked in favour of inferior performing players.
They read the writing on the wall that our match committee had put there in large bright letters.

They were dropped and/or subbed before their so called performance drop off, not the other way around.

Hard to play well when you aren’t in the team or on the ground.

The club and team are poorer for their departure.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Your not seriously suggesting that we didn't unders for Dunkley or smith?

All we know that Dunkley was on quite little money for how good of a player he was (as little as $400k a year or whatever) after he re-signed in mid 2019 to the end of 2022.

There's every chance that we offered him more money per year on a longer deal, but Dunkley took a shorter deal (his preference) on less money. This was both a gamble on himself in terms of his own form improving (which paid off, his good 2021 and 2022 seasons meaning that Brisbane came to the table with a good salary well in excess of what a five or six year deal in 2019 would have looked like per-year), but also giving him the chance to leave if he wanted to out of contract.

Both parties got something out of it. Dogs got a cheaper per-year Dunkley for 2020, 2021 and 2022 where he played excellent football, the Dogs qualified for finals in all three years in part because we could recruit and pay other players with the salary cap money we weren't paying to Dunkley. We also had an out if Dunkley's form fell away. The downside being was that Dunkley was under no obligation to continue to be a Bulldog (and a Bulldog for cheap salary cap money) given the short term deal.

The opposite of those is literally the something for Dunkley.

We can only assume that Dunkley left some money on the table 2020-2022 in order to not have to sign a five or six year deal at the Dogs.

In terms of trading, we got a fourth and gave up two thirds (who really cares) and got 21, Brisbane's 1st and 2nd. That's fine I think. Nobody likes losing players but when a player requests a trade you do what you can. People love claiming it wasn't a good trade because Brisbane eventually made the GF meaning their 1st and 2nd together weren't that good, but the pick carried the possibility of being much higher, had the Brisbane season imploded and they fail to make finals (or whatever) - unlikely but still a reasonable enough possibility to add to the value of the picks. 21 + F1 + F2 is very much worth around pick 5 or 6 even if we ignore the draft value points, and I think all of us would have been happy with pick 6 in a trade straight up for Dunkley. I'm of the view that draft picks in the top 30-35 are still very much valuable before the drop off from that point. Getting three picks in that range does add up quickly.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I'd love it if we took advantage of another club seeing a "slider" in pick 17 (down to 20 or whatever) and trading their future first to get there.

Offer up 17 and 25 (or our future second) or a future first and a later pick in the 30's or 40's or whatever.

Bank on that team being desperate, making weak moves and failing to make finals and it being a top 10 pick.

That then gives us the trade ammunition to go and recruit a gun player with our newfound salary cap room - two first round picks (next year and our upgrade for 17).

I get it has to come together in the sense there's a player available at draft time that we don't rate and another club does but a few teams like Carlton, Essendon and Gold Coast have already shown that they would do silly things like this in the past. There'll always be another club.

For instance, a team like Essendon has their own and Melbourne's first rounder next year. I could easily see them trading one out because they rate a player there at our pick, much like how they traded pick 31 and 11 for Caddy at pick 10.

 

[cherrypie]

These private school kids are weak

Like Macrae, Libba, Bont, Naughton, Duryea etc?

 

[DueWest]

Only last year we signed Aaron Naughton for 9 years as a 23 years old, after signing him for 5 years as a 19 year old.

Next captain of the club

 

[DueWest]

I'd love it if we took advantage of another club seeing a "slider" in pick 17 (down to 20 or whatever) and trading their future first to get there.

Offer up 17 and 25 (or our future second) or a future first and a later pick in the 30's or 40's or whatever.

Bank on that team being desperate, making weak moves and failing to make finals and it being a top 10 pick.

That then gives us the trade ammunition to go and recruit a gun player with our newfound salary cap room - two first round picks (next year and our upgrade for 17).

I get it has to come together in the sense there's a player available at draft time that we don't rate and another club does but a few teams like Carlton, Essendon and Gold Coast have already shown that they would do silly things like this in the past. There'll always be another club.

For instance, a team like Essendon has their own and Melbourne's first rounder next year. I could easily see them trading one out because they rate a player there at our pick, much like how they traded pick 31 and 11 for Caddy at pick 10.

I can see Richmond moving pick 6, 10 or 11 into 2025. They have 8 picks in top 24 and will move one or two out a year surely

Power said already he’s interested in moving up from 17

What will it take to get one of these picks with the picks we have in 2024 and 2025 ?

 

[DannyB4]

My god - what a load of shit from Smith.

These private school kids are weak and cannot lie to save themselves.

Calm down there mate. Macca and Daniher as I mentioned are also private school kids but make the travel work.

Maybe sometimes you just need to call a spade a spade and Baz is just a W.

 

[BrisDog]

Macca lived in Kew and travelled across the bridge to get to work. Same with Treloar.

Daniher literally lived in another state and managed it fine.

Not buying the PR spin from Smith.

Just goes to show how much character Treloar has. To pay those tolls and risk that bridge everyday means the world to me.