List Mgmt. Trade & F/A - 2020

[Virgin Dog]

I see he struggled again today against a good defender. Not sure he touched it against Darcy Moore

It's more the windy conditions that didn't suit key forwards, but May definitely flogged him and was easily the Demons' best. Last week, he towelled up Talia. Last year, he kicked 4 on Harry Taylor, 3 on Harris Andrews and 5 on Dylan Grimes/Nick Vlastuin.

Round 1 against Moore, he was rushed back after doing his knee in last year's finals, and was way underdone. Ended up back in surgery after the Pies game. Moore very well probably would have held him to a low output regardless, but it was far from Naughton playing at full capacity

 

[Pedro]

How are they realistically going to cut down list sizes? Given our injury issues over the last few years, we would not be able to field a team. Many clubs end up with 8-10 injuries. I just can’t see how it’s feasible at all and also prevents any development of kids. It’s just not viable

It might have to be viable. I can't imagine how much money has been lost this year. It has to have some effect down the track

 

[gouki88]

Watching Breust today, boy we could use him next year. Would take him or Gunston in a second. Would cop Burgoyne for a year too. Still all class.

I’d love the first two, but not Burgoyne. He’s got a sweet boot, but he’s totally cooked. Barely gets the footy anymore and is approaching 38, with nearly 400 games on the board. Nothing left in the tank

 

[Pedro]

How we are losing anyone in the position we are is beyond me. If we can’t keep players like checkers then our list management is worse than I thought. That said I’ll believe it when I see it

We don't generally lose players we want to keep. Obviously there's going to be a couple exceptions, but over the years we've been pretty good in this regard.

 

[stormskye]

I’d love the first two, but not Burgoyne. He’s got a sweet boot, but he’s totally cooked. Barely gets the footy anymore and is approaching 38, with nearly 400 games on the board. Nothing left in the tank

Burgoyne would take our list profile up 3 years by himself

 

[kaistar]

I’d love the first two, but not Burgoyne. He’s got a sweet boot, but he’s totally cooked. Barely gets the footy anymore and is approaching 38, with nearly 400 games on the board. Nothing left in the tank

Not about touches with him. Purely impact. Would without a doubt add some class to our squad.

 

[gouki88]

Not about touches with him. Purely impact. Would without a doubt add some class to our squad.

Maybe, but he can only play every other week, applies zero pressure now (and when he does it’s a cheap shot) and he’ll retire imminently. He’s classy, but not at all worth anything

 

[pablo disco bar]

Lose miocheck and I'm done
Been a great pick up

Reliable goes hard no off field dramas


Actually quite un Collingwood like

 

[AndrewShawble]

Not about touches with him. Purely impact. Would without a doubt add some class to our squad.

Agree, we just afford the downside though. We’ve been a retirement home for too many players of late.

Better off using a pick on a state league player - Noble, Mihocek. Plenty of gold to be mined.

 

[stormskye]

Lose miocheck and I'm done
Been a great pick up

Reliable goes hard no off field dramas


Actually quite un Collingwood like

If we lose checkers I’m heading to the Gimps place to throw my membership in his fire Whilst he puts a gorilla on big cox

 

[Knightmare]

I don't mind the idea of targeting a mature key forward/position player, but to me it can't be at the expense of our draft hand.

If anything we should be trying to get into one of those picks which will see us get Thilthorpe or McDonald. For example we could swap 1sts with the Dogs and package our 2 1sts into a top 5 pick.

I think we tend to focus on the short term at the expense of the medium and long term, which is a mistake.

If we are then in a position to target key position players we need to make sure they are worth a damn. Someone proven. Or someone who can fit our forward balance.

There are two ways I see that playing out. One would be to target a key defender and send Moore forward. The best scenario there would be Tom McDonald. We would stay strong in defence but boost our forward line with Moore. I'm interested in your thoughts on other key defenders here, particular those with some ability to intercept?

The other way is to target a key forward with attributes we like but who fits our system. I think its really unlikely in this scenario we get a sure bet, and there is huge risk in getting it wrong. There are so many NQR types or those past their best you can get trapped by. To me our balance needs a tall target to balance our other smaller talls in De Goey and Mihocek. The one I've liked for awhile is Lewis at Hawks, he has the height and physicality I think to fit our system. Theres risk there and you would be trading on potential. This is where perhaps you trade out Phillips to address a more glaring list need.

In either scenario you drastically improve our key position situation but not at the expense of the medium to long term needs of the team.

I'm hoping the reduced lists shake out a few quick small forwards we can get on the cheap as you suggested. I feel we may cut the list deep this off season, not just to reduce our list size but give us the flexibility to chase these opportunities.

Where Collingwood are picking in the first round McDonald and Thilthorpe won't be available. Thilthorpe I wouldn't move up for. McDonald I'd consider moving up to if it meant as part of that salary cap space opens up to add other undervalued players so that the quantity of quality players rise, that's a scenario I'd consider.

While this may seem a strong comment, but my view this offseason is teams not adding at least 5 players from rival teams will have missed a one off opportunity to improve and this is the year of all years to target rival talent and quantity of able rival talent.

I don't view focusing 'short term' necessarily as a bad idea conceptually. It's worked for Hawthorn from 2008 really until 2019, Geelong since 2007, Richmond by trading for talent and Sydney by trading for talent - that's how those sides became good. St Kilda this year are looking good since they've added appropriate talent from rival clubs. Not everyone added needs to be a 30 year old, certainly some can be if they add to the best 22, but players from years 3+ are all suitable acquisitions who if well picked can improve the best 22.

For a quick key defenders list and these aren't by any means ordered names:
Aliir Aliir, Majak Daw, Marcus Adams, Joel Hamling, Billy Frampton (should be switched back), Josh Bruce (should be switched back), Lewis Young, Josh Schache (should be switched back), Sam Reid (should be switched back), Jack Watts, Tom McDonald (should be switched back), Peter Wright (should be switched back), James Stewart (should be switched back), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Shaun McKernan (switch to key defence), Caleb Marchbank, Adam Tomlinson.

I'd favour guys who only require late picks or can be had as delisted free agents. Aliir Aliir and Tom McDonald of those are my preferences and would be the two I'd say are most ideal to release Moore from defence as both are elite intercept marks, but depending on the value proposition I'd be thinking about all those guys to varying degrees. If there is demand I could categorise these guys into tier lists. A lot of those are speculative with some speculative calls that some of them may look better in defence, but with those who are more-so forwards it's more out of intrigue for their chances in defence and thinking if things aren't working for them up front that that may be a chance for them to turn things around.

Through the draft there aren't any I'm endorsing with Denver Grainger-Barrass is that one key defender to draft with confidence, though I view him overrated, and he probably goes top-5 or 6. The others are more speculative and I'd want to see them improve before saying a Nikolas Cox or Zac Reid are worth picking as two of the speculative Victorians who I would have wanted to see improve this year before recommending. Given this, I'm fully on the trade for or take as a delisted free agent one of the listed established key talls I've mentioned above.

While probably a call people won't want to hear. But I'd be comfortable losing one or two even of the big salary cap hogs (along with numerous non-required players) if it means it provides the club the flexibility to add numerous ie. 6+ capable players from rival teams who can definitively add to the best 22.

As an example offseason of additions. Adding something like:
Key forward: Ben Brown (number one i50 target and will be better next season with longer quarters).
Key defender: One of Tom McDonald/Aliir Aliir (allowing Moore to switch to relieving ruck and from there either plays wing or key forward)
Pressure forward: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (one of the best pressure forwards in the game and may be more available than perhaps he should)
Ball winning mid: Riley Collier-Dawkins or failing that Connor McFadyen (either in my view would be upgrades on Sier/Wills and improve the youth in what is a very old midfield. They don't need any AFL games played for me to know that. Collier-Dawkins particularly looks set to become an absolute monster at stoppages once he gets games)
Tall wing: Jarrod Brander (underutilised and a role that clubs should be using more)
Hf/wing: Jack Sinclair (underrated and if he gets dropped again or Saints let him go for cheap I like with his pressure a feature). Darcy MacPherson is a similar type who also could be considered if available.

And if those guys can be added while retaining *not in any particular order: Stephenson, De Goey, Quaynor, Grundy, Treloar, Pendlebury, Adams, Sidebottom, Crisp, Moore, Maynard and Howe. That would be optimal. If one of these need to go for salary cap reasons to get those targets from rival clubs, then so be it, but ideally I'd be looking to get rid of those 'others' before I would these guys, and looking to add these guys into that core group of quality pieces.

 

[stormskye]

Where Collingwood are picking in the first round McDonald and Thilthorpe won't be available. Thilthorpe I wouldn't move up for. McDonald I'd consider moving up to if it meant as part of that salary cap space opens up to add other undervalued players so that the quantity of quality players rise, that's a scenario I'd consider.

While this may seem a strong comment, but my view this offseason is teams not adding at least 5 players from rival teams will have missed a one off opportunity to improve and this is the year of all years to target rival talent and quantity of able rival talent.

I don't view focusing 'short term' necessarily as a bad idea conceptually. It's worked for Hawthorn from 2008 really until 2019, Geelong since 2007, Richmond by trading for talent and Sydney by trading for talent - that's how those sides became good. St Kilda this year are looking good since they've added appropriate talent from rival clubs. Not everyone added needs to be a 30 year old, certainly some can be if they add to the best 22, but players from years 3+ are all suitable acquisitions who if well picked can improve the best 22.

For a quick key defenders list and these aren't by any means ordered names:
Aliir Aliir, Majak Daw, Marcus Adams, Joel Hamling, Billy Frampton (should be switched back), Josh Bruce (should be switched back), Lewis Young, Josh Schache (should be switched back), Sam Reid (should be switched back), Jack Watts, Tom McDonald (should be switched back), Peter Wright (should be switched back), James Stewart (should be switched back), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Shaun McKernan (switch to key defence), Caleb Marchbank, Adam Tomlinson.

I'd favour guys who only require late picks or can be had as delisted free agents. Aliir Aliir and Tom McDonald of those are my preferences and would be the two I'd say are most ideal to release Moore from defence as both are elite intercept marks, but depending on the value proposition I'd be thinking about all those guys to varying degrees. If there is demand I could categorise these guys into tier lists. A lot of those are speculative with some speculative calls that some of them may look better in defence, but with those who are more-so forwards it's more out of intrigue for their chances in defence and thinking if things aren't working for them up front that that may be a chance for them to turn things around.

Through the draft there aren't any I'm endorsing with Denver Grainger-Barrass is that one key defender to draft with confidence, though I view him overrated, and he probably goes top-5 or 6. The others are more speculative and I'd want to see them improve before saying a Nikolas Cox or Zac Reid are worth picking as two of the speculative Victorians who I would have wanted to see improve this year before recommending. Given this, I'm fully on the trade for or take as a delisted free agent one of the listed established key talls I've mentioned above.

While probably a call people won't want to hear. But I'd be comfortable losing one or two even of the big salary cap hogs (along with numerous non-required players) if it means it provides the club the flexibility to add numerous ie. 6+ capable players from rival teams who can definitively add to the best 22.

As an example offseason of additions. Adding something like:
Key forward: Ben Brown (number one i50 target and will be better next season with longer quarters).
Key defender: One of Tom McDonald/Aliir Aliir (allowing Moore to switch to relieving ruck and from there either plays wing or key forward)
Pressure forward: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (one of the best pressure forwards in the game and may be more available than perhaps he should)
Ball winning mid: Riley Collier-Dawkins or failing that Connor McFadyen (either in my view would be upgrades on Sier/Wills and improve the youth in what is a very old midfield. They don't need any AFL games played for me to know that. Collier-Dawkins particularly looks set to become an absolute monster at stoppages once he gets games)
Tall wing: Jarrod Brander (underutilised and a role that clubs should be using more)
Hf/wing: Jack Sinclair (underrated and if he gets dropped again or Saints let him go for cheap I like with his pressure a feature). Darcy MacPherson is a similar type who also could be considered if available.

And if those guys can be added while retaining *not in any particular order: Stephenson, De Goey, Quaynor, Grundy, Treloar, Pendlebury, Adams, Sidebottom, Crisp, Moore, Maynard and Howe. That would be optimal. If one of these need to go for salary cap reasons to get those targets from rival clubs, then so be it, but ideally I'd be looking to get rid of those 'others' before I would these guys, and looking to add these guys into that core group of quality pieces.

Great post mate, good insight. I’m 100% on board to getting a KPD like McDonald or Allir Allir to release Moore. I’ve raised this myself. We are lacking KP depth at both ends. Would love to find a pressure forward as we have far to many medium marking types.

If we can’t grab a genuine A grade in the draft, brown would be keen but I’d be concerned with his price. I think schache could come fairly cheap and either play forward or become a good defender much like Liam jones.

think there will be a few decent players we can top up with, im hopeful degoey accepts where he’s at and takes a pay Cut.

If you don’t see us getting any key positions in draft, what are your thought on what we should do with our first in light of reef?

 

[johncitizen]

Have a look at Hogan’s Santa video on the internet. Chewing his face off. Pass

All the druggie AFL players claim mental /health issues. Even if you give up the hard drugs, issues will continue with your brain and body.

 

[Knightmare]

Great post mate, good insight. I’m 100% on board to getting a KPD like McDonald or Allir Allir to release Moore. I’ve raised this myself. We are lacking KP depth at both ends. Would love to find a pressure forward as we have far to many medium marking types.

If we can’t grab a genuine A grade in the draft, brown would be keen but I’d be concerned with his price. I think schache could come fairly cheap and either play forward or become a good defender much like Liam jones.

think there will be a few decent players we can top up with, im hopeful degoey accepts where he’s at and takes a pay Cut.

If you don’t see us getting any key positions in draft, what are your thought on what we should do with our first in light of reef?

Schache I don't love as a forward. As a defender the intrigue for me comes from him being a good kick. Even Wright, he's a really long but not a bad kick by any means. Both would need to show they can intercept and win 1v1s to win me over. They're more speculative types where if delisted I'd use a list space on, than seek out as I would with some of those others I'm more confident on.

With the first pick Finlay Macrae (brother of Jack) is my preferred choice. He's a good mid and underrated at the moment. It feels like people weren't paying attention to him enough last year given he shared the midfield for Oakleigh with Rowel/Anderson/Phillips (best mid in this draft). Macrae and Reef coincidentally are Oakleigh teammates, and going into the year were the two I felt would have risen up draft boards had we had a season as they would have taken on more prominent midfield roles.
Finlay I consider more advanced than Jack at the same age, he's just a few cm shorter as more mid 185cmish than 191cm, unless he has grown this yeear. Their games are very similar though, has the same tricks and capabilities.

A draft along the lines of Macrae/Reef/Callow would be solid and roughly the kind of draft I'd look to have. Callow being a shorter key forward and one who probably gets underrated on that basis, but is a more than capable target and is a very smart footballer who do damage whether it's marking or getting out the back and surprising opponents with his mobility/agility.

 

[adammania9]

While probably a call people won't want to hear. But I'd be comfortable losing one or two even of the big salary cap hogs (along with numerous non-required players) if it means it provides the club the flexibility to add numerous ie. 6+ capable players from rival teams who can definitively add to the best 22.

What salary cap hogs would you consider trade material? I’ve been playing trade scenarios in my head over the last few weeks and thinking about how we can set the club up for a challenge in 2-4 years, as I think this list has run its course for the most part and I think we need to refresh somewhat via trade and draft.

I’ve watched a bit of Will Phillips who you’d be very familiar with and I think he’s outstanding and somebody I’d absolutely love to add to the side. But with our key position needs, in combination with the ludicrous resources we’ve invested into our midfield already, the decision to use a top pick on him wouldn’t fit.

I love Treloar, but at 27 with his hamstrings, should the club consider moving him on in favour of replacing him with a longer term option like Phillips? Phillips reminds me massively of Ben Cunnington (who I rate more than most), in that he’s not just a see ball get ball type, he has great composure and vision, and he assesses his options well before picking out the best choice. I reckon he’ll be a tremendous backbone in a strong midfield at AFL level, and one you can truly build a midfield around.

Treloar is on about 800k a year and with his injury troubles, if given the option, I’d probably sideways Treloar to a youngster like Phillips.

Collingwood have a top 9 players in my opinion in terms of quality and importance. These 9 players carry the side most weeks. They are Pendlebury, Grundy, Moore, Howe, Adams, De Goey, Sidebottom, Treloar and Maynard. If you had to trade one - would you agree with me in saying that Treloar is probably the most expendable?

 

[jhr8]

Who would take Treloar? Doubt he’d want to leave Melbourne having just had a kid. Love him but would swap for a first rounder if an offer came in considering his hammies.

 

[Knightmare]

What salary cap hogs would you consider trade material? I’ve been playing trade scenarios in my head over the last few weeks and thinking about how we can set the club up for a challenge in 2-4 years, as I think this list has run its course for the most part and I think we need to refresh somewhat via trade and draft.

I’ve watched a bit of Will Phillips who you’d be very familiar with and I think he’s outstanding and somebody I’d absolutely love to add to the side. But with our key position needs, in combination with the ludicrous resources we’ve invested into our midfield already, the decision to use a top pick on him wouldn’t fit.

I love Treloar, but at 27 with his hamstrings, should the club consider moving him on in favour of replacing him with a longer term option like Phillips? Phillips reminds me massively of Ben Cunnington (who I rate more than most), in that he’s not just a see ball get ball type, he has great composure and vision, and he assesses his options well before picking out the best choice. I reckon he’ll be a tremendous backbone in a strong midfield at AFL level, and one you can truly build a midfield around.

Treloar is on about 800k a year and with his injury troubles, if given the option, I’d probably sideways Treloar to a youngster like Phillips.

Collingwood have a top 9 players in my opinion in terms of quality and importance. These 9 players carry the side most weeks. They are Pendlebury, Grundy, Moore, Howe, Adams, De Goey, Sidebottom, Treloar and Maynard. If you had to trade one - would you agree with me in saying that Treloar is probably the most expendable?

What I'd be looking at is a lack of durability as one key concept. Given that, I agree with you that Treloar is one who the club should consider looking at moving to make space if it means 3-4 other clear best 22 additions who can fill pressing holes can be added.

Jordan De Goey might be another alternative where his currency would be very high, and his contract would be large, but again, if he clears substantial salary cap space to add the quantity of quality players, I'd consider it if a club were to make a big offer. He's someone in contract negotiations I wouldn't be wanting to pay top-10, maybe even top-20 in the competition money for. If that's what he's wanting, give me some strong combination of players/picks.

W.Phillips has a lot more burst than a Cunnington. Phillips has the ball winning capabilities (he's shorter than Cunnington) but he has serious wheels on top of that. If anything, his kicking could be more consistent. But he's the Rowell, or closest thing to on quality in this pool. He's someone you'd love to have fall to you, but not one to move up and pay a lot to move up for, as clubs are often reluctant to move down and would force you to pay a mega price premium to do so.

As a general idea. I'm looking at Collingwood as having a good 'big 11' and Stephenson if he was in better form would make that a 'big 12.' I'd like to see that expand to something more like 'a big 18' and then guys like Elliott, Mihocek, Roughead, Daicos can suffice with the other say four spots as some example players who are serviceable enough. That's the kind of group that could go from really where we are now to a premiership side.

 

[Robroy22]

What I'd be looking at is a lack of durability as one key concept. Given that, I agree with you that Treloar is one who the club should consider looking at moving to make space if it means 3-4 other clear best 22 additions who can fill pressing holes can be added.

Jordan De Goey might be another alternative where his currency would be very high, and his contract would be large, but again, if he clears substantial salary cap space to add the quantity of quality players, I'd consider it if a club were to make a big offer. He's someone in contract negotiations I wouldn't be wanting to pay top-10, maybe even top-20 in the competition money for. If that's what he's wanting, give me some strong combination of players/picks.

W.Phillips has a lot more burst than a Cunnington. Phillips has the ball winning capabilities (he's shorter than Cunnington) but he has serious wheels on top of that. If anything, his kicking could be more consistent. But he's the Rowell, or closest thing to on quality in this pool. He's someone you'd love to have fall to you, but not one to move up and pay a lot to move up for, as clubs are often reluctant to move down and would force you to pay a mega price premium to do so.

As a general idea. I'm looking at Collingwood as having a good 'big 11' and Stephenson if he was in better form would make that a 'big 12.' I'd like to see that expand to something more like 'a big 18' and then guys like Elliott, Mihocek, Roughead, Daicos can suffice with the other say four spots as some example players who are serviceable enough. That's the kind of group that could go from really where we are now to a premiership side.

This last bit really makes sense, but in the old days we'd look at clearing out the dead wood and attracting new blood. You want to trade a gun to get 3-4 quality pieces. Makes sense, but are we brave enough to do it?

 

[jhr8]

If we managed to get Beams, Shaz, Cox, Dunn, Reid, Broomhead, Wills, Varcoe, etc off the list, trade a key piece like Treloar and replace them with a draft like Macrae, McInnes and Callow plus a trade like Collier-Dawkins or a key tall then that’s a big win

 

[Robroy22]

If we managed to get Beams, Shaz, Cox, Dunn, Reid, Broomhead, Wills, Varcoe, etc off the list, trade a key piece like Treloar and replace them with a draft like Macrae, McInnes and Callow plus a trade like Collier-Dawkins or a key tall then that’s a big win

Lets hope our recruiters think so too.

 

[Quicky]

Who would take Treloar? Doubt he’d want to leave Melbourne having just had a kid. Love him but would swap for a first rounder if an offer came in considering his hammies.

I think there'd be a few Melbourne based clubs interested. Essendon and St Kilda, probably Hawks also. It'd be a gamble for us. We're not blessed with speed in the middle. It's one of our problems. Treloars durability is a worry though.

 

[stormskye]

Treloar or degoey id be open to trading for picks and salary cap room.Haven’t had them on the park much anyway! Nobody else has currency that would make trading worthwhile really. I’d prefer to keep degoey but concerned what his price is gonna be.

of course would prefer to keep them and find a couple of moneyball top up trades.

 

[Kappa]

All the druggie AFL players claim mental /health issues. Even if you give up the hard drugs, issues will continue with your brain and body.

Although losing your father to cancer then getting diagnosed with cancer yourself would screw any normal person up considerably.

 

[adammania9]

Who would take Treloar? Doubt he’d want to leave Melbourne having just had a kid. Love him but would swap for a first rounder if an offer came in considering his hammies.

Clubs who think an established mid would get them to within touching distance of a flag. I think St Kilda and Carlton would trade their first rounder for Treloar easily.

 

[stormskye]

Treloar and our first to north for brown and their first which we use to get McDonald and reef after , KPF issues solved