List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 8

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Meteoric Rise said:
We don't need 15-20 new 18yo's over the next 2-3 drafts. We need some future stars, especially dynamic midfielders amongst about 10-12 18yo's brought in over that period.
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Hence why we should target WC pick 3 even if it means giving Baker away for next too nothing.
2 of Fos/lalor/Jagga/Smillie would fast track our rebuild along with next year's 1st.
 

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Tiger_Of_Old said:
Hence why we should target WC pick 3 even if it means giving Baker away for next too nothing.
2 of Fos/lalor/Jagga/Smillie would fast track our rebuild along with next year's 1st.
Click to expand...
With Hopper and TT around to protect the mids in the middle, it would be amazing to land 2 elite kids this year that can walk in.
 
fargothegreat said:
I don't think LDU leaves, and especially not to us, but the last time your board had an ITK poster you guys had Dusty signed, sealed and delivered :p
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I was at your 2017 Prelim vs GWS wearing my North guernsey yelling at Dusty it wasn't too late to change his mind ;)
 
Morro said:
With Hopper and TT around to protect the mids in the middle, it would be amazing to land 2 elite kids this year that can walk in.
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Everything will have too fall into place for us.
Eagles too be keen
Suns too be very generous in regards too Dusty if he goes.
Or the Lions or Carlton fall into a heap

The last time Everything fell into place was when the crows did their power stance.
 
I'm going very early on this and everyone's picks will change according to the final ladder and during trade period, but whatever.
If we cut our list to allow 7 or 8 live picks at the draft, without any other pre-draft changes, and assuming we finish 2nd bottom, we would go to the draft with picks:

2, 22, 35ish (Freos), 40, 41(West Coast), 55, 57

I'm looking at what deals may be attractive to clubs who will be using points. Assuming for most of them that they will want to "hide" their early picks by trading them out, then trading something similar back in after the bid matching.

Gold Coast
Currently have a lot of picks and points and an Academy selection likely to go top 7.
Their problem is to also cut their list to allow them to take their draft picks into the draft or else they bundle them before the draft (which usually loses points). I don't really see us able to do any mutually beneficial deals with them at this stage.
If I was them, I'd do something like trade 8 & 10, (possibly more) to Freo for their future first, then burn picks 20 + on matching Lombard who should get a top 10 bid, then afterwards trade their own future first back to Freo for two of their early teens first rounders. Since you can't trade your own picks back in, Freo currently closest matched to do something like that. Very good deal for Freo, but also allows Gold Coast to match Lombard while having slightly downgrading their two 1st round draft picks and likely their first round next year.

Brisbane - picks ~12, 50, 63
Will not finish bottom 5, making their first pick 6+ which will not possibly sneak before the Ashcroft bid. Let's assume it is about pick 12.
This one's tricky as they don't really have the backing points to cover trading out their first round pick then trading back in a similar pick.
Our current 40, 41 + 57 will be about a 200 point upgrade for them on that pick.
Melbourne could offer something similar, as could GWS who currently don't appear to have high academy prospects?
Not sure if any of these deals particularly work for Brisbane. Without doing any deals they would basically use picks 12 & 50 matching, leaving only pick 63.
If they take our deal, they use picks 40, 41 & 50 matching, leaving picks 57 & 63. Nothing to get excited about.

Carlton
Their first pick is likely to be 17-20 after it moves back for Ashcroft & Lombard bid matching.
Very close to where Ben Camporeale might actually be picked, likely too close to risk it.
Maybe we trade our future second (everyone will assume it's basically a first) for their current round one, could also offer 55 + 57 for their 37 if we haven't already traded them to Brisbane - gives them an extra ~100 points
Then, after they match a bid for the first Camporeale, we trade them our pick 22 for their future first.

Adelaide
Their first round pick will be before a Tyler Welsh bid, leaving them with picks 29, 42 & 60 to match a bid around pick 20.
Trade our future 4th for their pick 29 before the bid, their pick 42 & 60 should be close enough to match,
Then trade them our pick 35ish for their future 4th after the bid.
Other clubs might be better equipped to do a similar deal.

So,
Pick 2 --> 2 FOS / Smilie / Jagga
40,41,57 --> 12 Lalor / Travaglia / Murphy Reid
22 --> 17 Shanahan/Faull/Simms
35 --> 29 Decent slider
55 --> 55

2025
Keep our 1st
Our 2nd --> Carlton's 1st
Keep our 3rd
Our 4th --> Adelaide's 4th
 
Tzatziki_Man said:
Unfortunately once again, this is what we have on our list.

1. Damien Hardwick found great success playing midfielders off the half back line so they can learn how to read the game well. Dusty himself started on the half back flank. For you to suggest this is a preposterous move shows your lack of knowledge of the game. Sheezel for North Melbourne, McKercher, all played as midfielders, even Nick Daicos, all started off half back. The reason this move is utilised in the AFL is because midfielders tend to have big bodies, seasoned players with a few pre seasons. I know our supporters are drooling for a midfield combo of Dow, Sonsie and McAullife, but they're boys, in teenage bodies, playing a man's game.

McAullife in particular has limited fitness, he can't even run out games, where do you suggest he's played ? Ruck rover? Lol he will get all semblance of confidence wiped clear from his palette.

2. Jayden Short is small, and he's a defender, Vlastuin plays small and tall. Theyre being paid too much money to sit on the sidelines, besides, i want to pump development into Blight, Miller, Gibcus and give him 50+ games together.

3. Prestia when fit, makes all the difference in our team. He is very underrated here. Unfortunately he keeps getting injured. But when fully fit, he is top 6 on our list mate.

4. The talls being too many? I'll accept that criticism.
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1. Dusty never played at half back. I challenge you to find a H&A game where he was named at half-back. He was always a midfielder but was criticised for getting to much ball in the D50 and not being dangerous. This success for Hardwick was Vlastuin and? You can't say Lids because we was already used off thr half back by Wallace and Rawlings.

2. Jayden Short was not named in your team so the team had no running HB

3. Prestia "when fit" is the operative words. He isn't going to offer anything next year so he should be retired. Would rather start to pump games into kids and maybe the stars will align and Dow can be serviceable. Would rather have Ross in there.
 
Tzatziki_Man said:
Why would we seek LDU? Haven't we already got hopper and taranto that cost us a ton and haven't made a difference. We just need quality youth
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Correct. We need quality/elite youth & bargain basement mature'ish age prospects ala Houli, Grigg, Chaplin etc. Even the move for Kosi I have no problem with - its the type of deals we need to aim for, although we have to avoid getting sucked into "the extra year". Kosi should have been a 2 year deal, even if it meant paying him an extra $50k per season etc. Honestly, who were we bidding against ?

We need some "pain sponge" fringe players to save these kids from being nuked - but we certainly should not be paying real money/assets for it, like Hopper, Taranto.

I 100% agree all our key targets need to be youth in that category, but in saying that i would 100% be looking to add those older players who might want 1 or 2 more years where & the club they are at are not so sure. Basically, the Tarrant deal, but doing it now as a "last resort" to staying competitive VS its being some sort of "magical piece".

Unfortunately for us, all the prime prospects for that guy are very unlikely to want to come here for a year. Looking at the FA list its hard to see real options there. A lot of them are either former captains, or still able to likely hold their spot as a reserve, but for a contender - meaning they are 1 teammates injury away from being back in the 18 and playing in finals.

Looking at Free Agency & list in general, i think the Saints could be a likely trade partner. They could certainly benefit from a few of our older blokes. We need to trade with teams that might overvalue "premiership experience" - Saints, Freo, Suns, Crows, Hawks are all possible options. If I had to pick a team for each potentially traded player

Baker + Bolton - Freo
Broad / Short - Saints
Graham - Crows
Rioli/Prestia/Martin - Suns


As the season rolls on i care less about the future of any of these above guys, if they are all running from sinking ships, then we generally know what they are. Nearly all of them are Tiger greats in their own way, but the end of our golden era has felt incredibly selfish. I feel like Cotchin & Riewoldt might have been the last 2 adults in the room & when they left it turned into a lil "lord of the flies" culture. Trauma will always trigger a "Fight or Flight" reaction - but its sad to see so many choosing the latter. The only player i look at the appears to be trying to stand up and fight, but also stay - is Balta, Vlaustin & Taranto, & considering Tim has only been here 5 minutes thats a pretty sad state. The rest look overwhelmed and looking sideways.

Its crazy to me that Vlaustin has never been spoken about as the Captain. Looking at his career, he seems the most obvious person, yet appears to have no interest at all in the position. Our club is in a bizarre state at the moment. A lot of people here think i am a know it all, and love to say i told you so - but i generally always offer solutions or specific targets. I am honestly not sure anymore how the club fights through this without it being detrimental to our long-term culture. Regarding culture, Many are overrating our recent past improvements & completely underestimating our ingrained, long-term cultural flaws.

In a weird sense, the tigers embracing "love & understanding" as their new culture through the dynasty era also removed our claws. Where is the audaciousness of the Tiger, poaching talent, staff etc? It all seems to be falling apart in suspended animation.
 
smurfin said:
I'm going very early on this and everyone's picks will change according to the final ladder and during trade period, but whatever.
If we cut our list to allow 7 or 8 live picks at the draft, without any other pre-draft changes, and assuming we finish 2nd bottom, we would go to the draft with picks:

2, 22, 35ish (Freos), 40, 41(West Coast), 55, 57

I'm looking at what deals may be attractive to clubs who will be using points. Assuming for most of them that they will want to "hide" their early picks by trading them out, then trading something similar back in after the bid matching.

Gold Coast
Currently have a lot of picks and points and an Academy selection likely to go top 7.
Their problem is to also cut their list to allow them to take their draft picks into the draft or else they bundle them before the draft (which usually loses points). I don't really see us able to do any mutually beneficial deals with them at this stage.
If I was them, I'd do something like trade 8 & 10, (possibly more) to Freo for their future first, then burn picks 20 + on matching Lombard who should get a top 10 bid, then afterwards trade their own future first back to Freo for two of their early teens first rounders. Since you can't trade your own picks back in, Freo currently closest matched to do something like that. Very good deal for Freo, but also allows Gold Coast to match Lombard while having slightly downgrading their two 1st round draft picks and likely their first round next year.

Brisbane - picks ~12, 50, 63
Will not finish bottom 5, making their first pick 6+ which will not possibly sneak before the Ashcroft bid. Let's assume it is about pick 12.
This one's tricky as they don't really have the backing points to cover trading out their first round pick then trading back in a similar pick.
Our current 40, 41 + 57 will be about a 200 point upgrade for them on that pick.
Melbourne could offer something similar, as could GWS who currently don't appear to have high academy prospects?
Not sure if any of these deals particularly work for Brisbane. Without doing any deals they would basically use picks 12 & 50 matching, leaving only pick 63.
If they take our deal, they use picks 40, 41 & 50 matching, leaving picks 57 & 63. Nothing to get excited about.

Carlton
Their first pick is likely to be 17-20 after it moves back for Ashcroft & Lombard bid matching.
Very close to where Ben Camporeale might actually be picked, likely too close to risk it.
Maybe we trade our future second (everyone will assume it's basically a first) for their current round one, could also offer 55 + 57 for their 37 if we haven't already traded them to Brisbane - gives them an extra ~100 points
Then, after they match a bid for the first Camporeale, we trade them our pick 22 for their future first.

Adelaide
Their first round pick will be before a Tyler Welsh bid, leaving them with picks 29, 42 & 60 to match a bid around pick 20.
Trade our future 4th for their pick 29 before the bid, their pick 42 & 60 should be close enough to match,
Then trade them our pick 35ish for their future 4th after the bid.
Other clubs might be better equipped to do a similar deal.

So,
Pick 2 --> 2 FOS / Smilie / Jagga
40,41,57 --> 12 Lalor / Travaglia / Murphy Reid
22 --> 17 Shanahan/Faull/Simms
35 --> 29 Decent slider
55 --> 55

2025
Keep our 1st
Our 2nd --> Carlton's 1st
Keep our 3rd
Our 4th --> Adelaide's 4th
Click to expand...
Brisbane need the points to match for Marshall as well

I’d expect we turn those later 40-50 picks into another second rounder and then that gets packaged to get into pick 12

Otherwise Brisbane will need to make a bunch of list spots available
 

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Tzatziki_Man said:
Why would we seek LDU? Haven't we already got hopper and taranto that cost us a ton and haven't made a difference. We just need quality youth
Click to expand...
LDU is a completely different player to both Taranto and Hopper to be fair but I agree that we need to prioritize youth.
 
Was reading David King saying that 'talent solves all.problems' and most talent is top 10 picks. Essendon have 12, Gold Coast 11, NOrth have 10 top 10 pick players.

To put that in perspective, you would need 10 years of finishing outside the 8 to get 10 top 10 picks on your list. That's not going to work for anyone, i cant wait 10 years to eventually have enough talent to have a crack at number 14, so you need to get those extra picks somehow, whether it's Carlton giving you a top 10 pick for Saad, losing daniher to free agency etc, or even because gold coast wanted Weller. We have one top 10 pick this year. I guess the discussion is do we try for more and how, and what value those 26 to 28 year old players?

Personally I would love 3 top 10 picks this year any way I could get them, and then there is 1 next year and 1 the year after gets us to 5 cracks at top quality players. And that's still 3 years of being at the bottom of the ladder!
 
If there is any truth to the Rumor of Rioli / Gold Coast then we must facilitate this trade and get their first 2 picks and if they also have interest in Dusty then tell them to over pay Dusty by $200k and we will pay 50% of Rioli's first 2 years

Get GC #8 & #9 plus #22 for Dusty
We could pass on 39, 41, 54 to them to make up the points for Lombard


There was also some chatter on SEN ial radio today about Tom Lunch / Melbourne
If true let him go and take their 1st rounder and pay 50% Tom's next year salary

Jack Graham - Please find a club
 
THE_GUN said:
If there is any truth to the Rumor of Rioli / Gold Coast then we must facilitate this trade and get their first 2 picks and if they also have interest in Dusty then tell them to over pay Dusty by $200k and we will pay 50% of Rioli's first 2 years

Get GC #8 & #9 plus #22 for Dusty
We could pass on 39, 41, 54 to them to make up the points for Lombard


There was also some chatter on SEN ial radio today about Tom Lunch / Melbourne
If true let him go and take their 1st rounder and pay 50% Tom's next year salary

Jack Graham - Please find a club
Click to expand...
I've said a few times Lynch makes alot of sense for the dees.
 
Chadwiko said:
I was at your 2017 Prelim vs GWS wearing my North guernsey yelling at Dusty it wasn't too late to change his mind ;)
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Screenshot_20240708_184815_Photos.jpg
Was this you at the 2017 GF ???? 🤣🤣
 
beema limapep said:
If people think we are 2 to 3 years off from genuine success, then yes the above I would mostly agree with.

If we are 4 to 6 years off (remembering that players have to develop and 25 to 27 year old will be mostly gone or slowing down) then it's worth taking the moderate risk of trading out now.

The greater risk is holding onto your 25-27 year olds and not properly rebuilding, and having nothing to show for it in 5 years but a string of 7th to 12th finishes and a weaker list overall.

Don't forget by moving some players on we also have free up the cash for players who better suit our needs.

As the saying goes, if nothing changes, nothing changes.
Click to expand...

I agree, I’m not against trying to improve our draft hand. Just making the point Baker going for a mid-teens pick isn’t going to make or break our rebuild as odds are the player we get will be inferior to Baker.

And let’s say we did proactively trade out Bolton, Baker and Rioli, and got picks 5, 8 and 14. What if 2 of those are Fisher McAsey and Corey Ellis? What does the next 6-7 years look like then?

Or as Dons did in 2020 with picks 8,9,10 we get Reid, Perkins and Cox? 4-years later still doing sweet bugger all.

There’s no exact science, but pretty certain going nuclear isn’t the solution.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Tigerbob said:
Love Tiger71

Can you imagine in a year we can absolutely set the list up for the next generation of success, we are wanting to keep everyone?
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Unfortunately, yes. It sounds like the club is overrating the list something awful.
 
panatha1908 said:
Was reading David King saying that 'talent solves all.problems' and most talent is top 10 picks. Essendon have 12, Gold Coast 11, NOrth have 10 top 10 pick players.

To put that in perspective, you would need 10 years of finishing outside the 8 to get 10 top 10 picks on your list. That's not going to work for anyone, i cant wait 10 years to eventually have enough talent to have a crack at number 14, so you need to get those extra picks somehow, whether it's Carlton giving you a top 10 pick for Saad, losing daniher to free agency etc, or even because gold coast wanted Weller. We have one top 10 pick this year. I guess the discussion is do we try for more and how, and what value those 26 to 28 year old players?

Personally I would love 3 top 10 picks this year any way I could get them, and then there is 1 next year and 1 the year after gets us to 5 cracks at top quality players. And that's still 3 years of being at the bottom of the ladder!
Click to expand...

Essendon haven’t won a final for 18-years. GC have never made finals. North have won 13-games in the last 5-years.

They only have that many first round picks because they’ve been so so bad for so so long …


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Tiger_Of_Old said:
Hence why we should target WC pick 3 even if it means giving Baker away for next too nothing.
2 of Fos/lalor/Jagga/Smillie would fast track our rebuild along with next year's 1st.
Click to expand...
Hmm I’d be equally as keen on trading pic 1 for 3 top 18 pics ,,,tho that depends on player trades . If we were to keep both rioli and Bolton , this could be an idea
 
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