- Jan 30, 2013
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the fact pick 9 could likely turn into 11 with 14 becoming 15 and 17 possibly staying at that value is also probably overlooked.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Trade Period - The Positives
- Thread starter Enviable Tradition
- Start date
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Gibbs brought a faint smile.
Not sure our history of drafting (see Moore and Butcher as top 10 flops) inspires confidence in the broader strategy.
Not sure our history of drafting (see Moore and Butcher as top 10 flops) inspires confidence in the broader strategy.
That's like Dave Mustaine's description of Kirk HammettCripps and Davies did their very best with the abilities that they have
raman
Kind of a Jagger-Tarzan
I think our drafting in the past three years is solid to better than solid, in talent identification terms at least if not in list balance terms. And this is considering our highest pick during the period has been 21, and our next highest has been 37.
I mean, that is a good enough hit rate with low-to-very-low picks to make me pretty sanguine about what we can do with 14, 17, 30 and 31.
Power Raid
We Exist To Win Premierships
I'm happy with our trading of picks, especially if pick 9 and 14 means very little difference to our objective.
It would have been good to off load an establish player or two, to send a strong message. Both Hartlett and Lobbe are good players but would be excellent players if they had desperation and aggression. Hopefully the fact no one else wanted them, makes them think about how to improve rather than shattering their confidence.
It would have been good to off load an establish player or two, to send a strong message. Both Hartlett and Lobbe are good players but would be excellent players if they had desperation and aggression. Hopefully the fact no one else wanted them, makes them think about how to improve rather than shattering their confidence.
bomberclifford
Importer/Exporter
- Thread starter
- #33
There are other threads for you. I think you missed the point of this one.
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bomberclifford
Importer/Exporter
Initially I wasn't happy about losing pick 9 but thinking about it logically, it has the potential to be a very shrewd strategy.
Here's a repost of my summary from the Trade Week Thread.
———————
In summary:
We drop pick 9 by 5 spots (pick 14)
We lift pick 19 by 2 spots (pick 17)
We lift pick 49 by 18 spots (pick 31)
Previously we'd lifted pick 67 by 37 spots (pick 30)
... with an added cost of our 2017 first round pick
That's a total aggregate draft improvement of 52 spots
Removing the complexity of compensation picks for the moment, and by using the final 8 as the cut off point for benchmarking, next year's pick could be anticipated like this:
Scenario A: Finish Top 4 - Pick 18 - 15
Scenario B: Finish Top 8 - Pick 14 - 11
Scenario C: Finish Mid Table - Pick 10 - 9
Scenario D: Finish Bottom 8 - Pick 1 - 8
My sense is that:
Scenario A is least likely. (huge improvement)
Scenario D is next least likely. (huge slump)
Scenario C is likely. (same as this year)
Scenario B is most likely. (mild improvement)
So we have most likely traded a pick between 9 - 14 next year for an opportunity to have 4 picks in the first two rounds this year.
Considering we went into trade week with only one pick in the first two rounds, that's a nett gain of three picks.
For this to be considered a win, we need to:
1. unearth two class players
2. draft one KPD prospect
3. finish at least in the top 8 in 2017
I've made my peace with this and I'm now content.
Here's a repost of my summary from the Trade Week Thread.
———————
In summary:
We drop pick 9 by 5 spots (pick 14)
We lift pick 19 by 2 spots (pick 17)
We lift pick 49 by 18 spots (pick 31)
Previously we'd lifted pick 67 by 37 spots (pick 30)
... with an added cost of our 2017 first round pick
That's a total aggregate draft improvement of 52 spots
Removing the complexity of compensation picks for the moment, and by using the final 8 as the cut off point for benchmarking, next year's pick could be anticipated like this:
Scenario A: Finish Top 4 - Pick 18 - 15
Scenario B: Finish Top 8 - Pick 14 - 11
Scenario C: Finish Mid Table - Pick 10 - 9
Scenario D: Finish Bottom 8 - Pick 1 - 8
My sense is that:
Scenario A is least likely. (huge improvement)
Scenario D is next least likely. (huge slump)
Scenario C is likely. (same as this year)
Scenario B is most likely. (mild improvement)
So we have most likely traded a pick between 9 - 14 next year for an opportunity to have 4 picks in the first two rounds this year.
Considering we went into trade week with only one pick in the first two rounds, that's a nett gain of three picks.
For this to be considered a win, we need to:
1. unearth two class players
2. draft one KPD prospect
3. finish at least in the top 8 in 2017
I've made my peace with this and I'm now content.
Rankor
Cancelled
Positive is definitely having 2 first round picks this year. Means we can trade another future 1st round pick next trade period if we must.
Macca19
Moderator
- Moderator
- #37
The positives are simple. We need to inject youth into the list. We went from 1 1st round & 0 2nd round picks to having 2 in each round, meaning we are giving ourselves the best chance to inject some quality youth into the list.
Given noone wanted our players, this was the only way we could have done this.
We clearly rate this draft and now have 4 good picks in this draft.
Lets worry about next years trade week in 11 months time.
Given noone wanted our players, this was the only way we could have done this.
We clearly rate this draft and now have 4 good picks in this draft.
Lets worry about next years trade week in 11 months time.
- Oct 30, 2012
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And thanks to your post I'm choosing to believe you and I too am peace (or in denial) whatever, thanks bomber
Lockhart Road
Cultural Attache
- Mar 26, 2013
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Macca, you are wise way beyond your years.
Ha! He has mistakenly pulled out the post draft playbook of cliches instead of the post trade week playbook. He's supposed to say...
We are very happy with the players we've brought in ... errr ....we've been watching them closely ....errr ... we commend Gold Coast on their professional approach... we think it was a fair deal for both clubs ...Ah shit pass me the post draft cliches.
I'm excited about who we draft. This is the beginning of the rebuild.
There was definitely a sea change this year in AFL Trade Weeks - no club wants to pay any price for average footballers or even good footballers that are nearing 30.
Everyone is in love with "how the Dogs did it"
There was definitely a sea change this year in AFL Trade Weeks - no club wants to pay any price for average footballers or even good footballers that are nearing 30.
Everyone is in love with "how the Dogs did it"
Isn't it slightly better than this because we didn't have pick 19 to begin with? We gained it in the trade period but then on-traded it so it can be forgotten entirely. I would adjust your analysis to...
We drop pick 9 to pick 14.
We lose 2017 first round pick but gain pick 17.
We lift pick 49 to pick 30.
We lift pick 67 to pick 31.
- Aug 22, 2009
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In other words ' you guys would have been ****ing pissed with the guy we picked first if we stuck with 9. You will be mildly less pissed now that we will get him at 14. Yep, we are so confident 13 other picks will pass and none of them will the guy we have in mind'
People are going to be sooooo mad.......
People are going to be sooooo mad.......
- Mar 3, 2014
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Done well, got draft picks this year, would have been happier if we moved a couple of our seasoned veterans who have been around a while to really shake things up but 4 picks in the first couple of rounds is a good result.
A couple of quality young mids to go with a key forward or two will slot straight in hopefully.
If we can get Barlow for cheap added midfield depth I'd say we have had a very good period.
A couple of quality young mids to go with a key forward or two will slot straight in hopefully.
If we can get Barlow for cheap added midfield depth I'd say we have had a very good period.
It seems that the club adjusted their thinking through the trade period, and essentially have decided that they have to start looking beyond the current crop.
I was pretty angry at trading away our future pick, but it does seem like a bold decision. That's what we have been asking for - and we got it.
I was pretty angry at trading away our future pick, but it does seem like a bold decision. That's what we have been asking for - and we got it.
Would be good if he could let us know which player he's targeted now so we can be the judge if we actually get the player we wanted in the end.
I'm kind of getting sick of these recycled comments about getting the player we targeted all the time without knowing if that's who we really targeted in the first place.
- Jun 7, 2015
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No players were demanding to leave our club.
Draft day will be interesting.
I'm going to go with "who dares wins".
Draft day will be interesting.
I'm going to go with "who dares wins".
pastmyprimus
Norm Smith Medallist
Veteran
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For the first time in years I'll be watching the first half of the draft and not just the second.
DaTBird187
What D Farke?
- Feb 9, 2014
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I like turtles. And draft picks.
I like that we didn't trade in overpaid broken hack forwards to fill a perceived need.
I like that fringe players at other clubs being traded for picks in the 70s means we didn't miss out on anything by not trading our fringe players.
I like that we didn't hang around two weeks waiting for one big trade to be done. Only for everyone to complain what it cost.
I like that Hawthorn's first pick is 88.
Gibbs
A great summary of the trade period.
If Marley Williams went for a pick in the 100's, what would we actually have expected to get for O'Shea and the other so called trade bait that people seem to be outraged we didn't trade out?
Rarely do you talk shit mate and this is again true.
Ah Chee is still a player I'm hopeful for. Players in the 40s really are lucky dip.
And the crap sort of lucky dip where the best you can hope for is a hot wheels car (and not the cool ones like a Pontiac or something)
