Triple J Hottest 100 - 2020

[FallingLiefs]

Yeah BoP is not winning IMO. I've been keen on Bad Guy since the start so if anything is beating dance monkey i am hoping it's that.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

So this is kinda hilarious for you punters. Anyway I was actually just listening to triplej and they said this last week the song with the most votes just got overtaken by the 2nd spot lmao. The announcer said 1st is about 100 or so votes clear atm after moving into first.

Could have been BOP overtaking Dance Monkey, hence the odds.

 

[jack 23]

Could have been BOP overtaking Dance Monkey, hence the odds.

no BOP definitely cannot win

from ABC today:

Hottest 100: your vote could change the Top 5 in the countdown - triple j

Only a few hundred votes currently separate the top five songs in this year's countdown.

www.abc.net.au

hope the top 2 is BOP and Bad Guy which to me would make sense from what Warm Tunas is showing. Billie Eillish usually polls better than on Warm Tunas, hence the top 2 being close the whole way.

the top 2 tunes 'have started pulling away from the song at #3, and there’s less than 100 votes between #4 and #5.'

So its now a 2 horse race not 3. interesting.

 

[ye olde mole]

Just an FYI for those who like getting creative.
I contacted Beteasy about their Build a Bet option (where you can request your own market). They let me know that while it isn't available at this stage, they will be opening up these markets closer to the event.

Feel free to put your thinking caps on and come up with some quirky ones.

 

[Liljam]

Got a tempting cashout offer on tab.. 2k profit for bop cashout or 7k if it wins. Currently at 1.85. I'm also about the same profit for bad guy but my head says bad guy will take the win because she owned 2019. Thinking cashing out bop and leaving bad guy. What would you do haha

 

[AvantGardener]

Got a tempting cashout offer on tab.. $2 profit for bop cashout or $7 if it wins. Currently at 1.85. I'm also about the same profit for bad guy but my head says bad guy will take the win because she owned 2019. Thinking cashing out bop and leaving bad guy. What would you do haha

FTFY

 

[Schulzenfest]

Got a tempting cashout offer on tab.. 2k profit for bop cashout or 7k if it wins. Currently at 1.85. I'm also about the same profit for bad guy but my head says bad guy will take the win because she owned 2019. Thinking cashing out bop and leaving bad guy. What would you do haha

Take the profit and cash out now. If I had money on BOP, that announcement about '#2 has just overtaken the previous #1' would have me very scared.

I can imagine that the sort of people who care enough about JJJ and the Hottest 100 to get their votes in early and post those votes online are also more likely to be the type of people who'd listen to JJJ enough to vote for a Like a Version. The less hardcore fans who left it a few weeks before getting their vote in are probably more likely to be voting for Dance Monkey or Bad Guy. To me, the previous #1 getting overtaken in January tells me that BOP has been overtaken by Dance Monkey or Bad Guy, not the other way around.

 

[jack 23]

my gut says BOP was leading then Bad Guy just overtook it....

based on this I cashed out my large bet @ $2.75 with B365 for a 15% ROI as I said I would.

Sportsbet paying $2.70 for BOP now so I can reinvest the profit for a free shot.

Sportsbets odds are interesting though... thats a big swing over 1 day.

 

[Liljam]

my gut says BOP was leading then Bad Guy just overtook it....

based on this I cashed out my large bet @ $2.75 with B365 for a 15% ROI as I said I would.

Sportsbet paying $2.70 for BOP now so I can reinvest the profit for a free shot.

Sportsbets odds are interesting though... thats a big swing over 1 day.

Just cashed out bop at 1.85 on tab, hope billie pulls the win.

 

[notarobot]

Are the bookies too chicken to do head to head options this year? With the top 3 being closeish as well as 4 and 5 I'm not sure I'd be backing any of those anyway.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Hottest 100 of 2020 Prediction | From The Valley Podc

www.fromthevalleypodcast.com

We’ve got a second credible count now, cheers thewitness

 

[jack 23]

Hottest 100 of 2020 Prediction | From The Valley Podc

www.fromthevalleypodcast.com

We’ve got a second credible count now, cheers thewitness

Heaps less than tunas so it's hard to take much/anything from that count that isn't already known

 

[notarobot]

Hottest 100 of 2020 Prediction | From The Valley Podc

www.fromthevalleypodcast.com

We’ve got a second credible count now, cheers thewitness

I wouldn't really call these counts that credible anymore. A credible count would have BoP LaV in 5th or 6th position.

 

[jack 23]

I wouldn't really call these counts that credible anymore. A credible count would have BoP LaV in 5th or 6th position.

5th or 6th is very specific
Mate, how do you know that?

I think you're confused what makes the counts credible. They are simply counts of the information that has been presented, nothing more.

 

[notarobot]

5th or 6th is very specific
Mate, how do you know that?

I think you're confused what makes the counts credible. They are simply counts of the information that has been presented, nothing more.

I use the word credible in the sense that whether the count is believable or not. I don’t believe any count that has BoP leading. I can see 4-5 songs easily doing better. Half the people voting for it are 30+ males which are way over represented on the socials so I can see it dropping. “Very specific mate” you seem overly stressed and paranoid about the result man.

 

[Gibbsy]

I use the word credible in the sense that whether the count is believable or not. I don’t believe any count that has BoP leading. I can see 4-5 songs easily doing better. Half the people voting for it are 30+ males which are way over represented on the socials so I can see it dropping. “Very specific mate” you seem overly stressed and paranoid about the result man.

no wonder he’s stressed, dude has at least 5k staked already.

anyway, here’s some info from the JJJ website today (credible ) that to me suggests BOP is not winning and will not win. My (figurative) money is on Bad Guy.


There was only a few hundred votes separating the songs at #1 and #2, but after jostling for the top spot, the #1 song has now cemented its lead. However, the songs at #3 and #4 are extremely close, with only 53 votes between them.
Only a handful of votes exist between the songs at the bottom end, so your vote could determine if your fave artist makes the cut at #100 or gets squeezed out to #101.
We've been counting 47,000 votes a day(!), amounting to 1.8 million votes so far. That's 31% ahead of where we were at this time last year, despite shortening the polling period by a week.

 

[ronpingwins]

The counts aren't meant to be credible in the sense it will be accurate to what happens, they're a guide you take and adjust for biases based on the audience. Counts with BoP on top are still credible if you take into account BoP could be overrepresented.

Think everyone has covered it now, very likely Bad Guy pulling away with 2-4 a combo of BoP/Dance Monkey/Rushing Back. Not sure who else is top 5, Mallrat maybe? BetEasy offering their top 10 now but no value, don't think we'll get any good markets until the final few days, just need to get on Billie while she's in 4's.

 

[notarobot]

The counts aren't meant to be credible in the sense it will be accurate to what happens, they're a guide you take and adjust for biases based on the audience. Counts with BoP on top are still credible if you take into account BoP could be overrepresented.

Think everyone has covered it now, very likely Bad Guy pulling away with 2-4 a combo of BoP/Dance Monkey/Rushing Back. Not sure who else is top 5, Mallrat maybe? BetEasy offering their top 10 now but no value, don't think we'll get any good markets until the final few days, just need to get on Billie while she's in 4's.

IMO top 4 will a combo of charlie, drink too much, bad guy and dance monkey. 5th and 6th between rushing back and BoP. I think it's unlikely BoP will drop beyond rushing back but who knows. Next up I have no idea but better in blak may fall a bit but might still be top 10 with a couple from robbery, exit sign, heavy hearted, circles and purple hat.

Songs that I think are way out on the count and will jump up are san frandisco, everything i wanted and maybe RICKY.

 

[jack 23]

no wonder he’s stressed, dude has at least 5k staked already.

anyway, here’s some info from the JJJ website today (credible ) that to me suggests BOP is not winning and will not win. My (figurative) money is on Bad Guy.


There was only a few hundred votes separating the songs at #1 and #2, but after jostling for the top spot, the #1 song has now cemented its lead. However, the songs at #3 and #4 are extremely close, with only 53 votes between them.
Only a handful of votes exist between the songs at the bottom end, so your vote could determine if your fave artist makes the cut at #100 or gets squeezed out to #101.
We've been counting 47,000 votes a day(!), amounting to 1.8 million votes so far. That's 31% ahead of where we were at this time last year, despite shortening the polling period by a week.

No need to make stuff up.

I'm in a position where I can hopefully get 2x payouts. Cash in BOP bets for a multibagging return and then ride out bad guy bets which imo is leading.

Bad guy firming on bookies.

 

[Gibbsy]

I’ll have a throw at the stumps for a top 20 based on current predictions / voting history / gut feel. I also just put my money where my mouth is re: Billie (max bet of $167 at SB) so feeling a little more invested now on the result. Sorry to jack 23 if it seemed like I was mouthing off.

1 - Bad Guy
2 - Dance Monkey
3 - Rushing Back
4 - Bulls on Parade
5 - Charlie
6 - Drink Too Much
7 - Heavy Hearted
8 - Exit Sign
9 - Better In Blak
10 - Solid Gold
11 - Bury a Friend
12 - Juice
13 - Borderline
14 - Purple Hat
15 - Piece of Your Heart
16 - By Myself
17 - Circles
18 - Earfquake
19 - Silver
20 - Everything I Wanted

Billie will climb. We saw how much of a massive jump When The Party’s Over was last year. I like the $4 about Everything I Wanted to finish 11-20 on SB. The more commercial songs will naturally rise higher closer to the end of voting – artists like Post Malone, Meduza, Pnau, Hilltops – and to an extent Tyler, Lizzo and Tame. I could see Stormzy rising to Top 20 too.

Happy to leave out the more niche votes like Slowly Slowly and the Chats. Although Violent Soho may surprise.

I’m gonna wait til the last few days before the count to lay down any more coin, hopefully we get some H2H markets or BYO bets (I’m only with SB). See how we go. Good luck all.

EDIT: Forgot Fidlar so just replaced Lime Cordiale with them.

 

[notarobot]

Billie will climb. We saw how much of a massive jump When The Party’s Over was last year. I like the $4 about Everything I Wanted to finish 11-20 on SB.

You should see me in a crown went backwards though last year. Everything I wanted will probs be top 20 though.

 

[ronpingwins]

I’ll have a throw at the stumps for a top 20 based on current predictions / voting history / gut feel. I also just put my money where my mouth is re: Billie (max bet of $167 at SB) so feeling a little more invested now on the result. Sorry to jack 23 if it seemed like I was mouthing off.

1 - Bad Guy
2 - Dance Monkey
3 - Rushing Back
4 - Bulls on Parade
5 - Charlie
6 - Drink Too Much
7 - Heavy Hearted
8 - Exit Sign
9 - Better In Blak
10 - Solid Gold
11 - Bury a Friend
12 - Juice
13 - Borderline
14 - Purple Hat
15 - Piece of Your Heart
16 - By Myself
17 - Circles
18 - Earfquake
19 - Silver
20 - Everything I Wanted

Billie will climb. We saw how much of a massive jump When The Party’s Over was last year. I like the $4 about Everything I Wanted to finish 11-20 on SB. The more commercial songs will naturally rise higher closer to the end of voting – artists like Post Malone, Meduza, Pnau, Hilltops – and to an extent Tyler, Lizzo and Tame. I could see Stormzy rising to Top 20 too.

Happy to leave out the more niche votes like Slowly Slowly and the Chats. Although Violent Soho may surprise.

I’m gonna wait til the last few days before the count to lay down any more coin, hopefully we get some H2H markets or BYO bets (I’m only with SB). See how we go. Good luck all.

EDIT: Forgot Fidlar so just replaced Lime Cordiale with them.

Nice, I'll go with

1 - Bad Guy
2 - Dance Monkey
3 - Bulls on Parade
4 - Rushing Back
5 - Charlie
6 - Heavy Hearted
7 - Circles
8 - Drink Too Much
9 - Exit Sign
10 - Bury a Friend
11 - Better In Blak
12 - Purple Hat
13 - Never Seen The Rain
14 - Solid Gold
15 - Robbery
16 - Piece of Your Heart
17 - By Myself
18 - Silver
19 - Borderline
20 - Earfquake

Think Tones will have a big jump, everything I wanted might be close and a smokey I think is Tokyo Drifting, which is rising late and getting a bit of hype. We have such a small sample size for the tunas this year though, it sounds like voting has gone up again this year so it's barely 1% atm. Less than half of last year, which had some massive variations, so I think there will still be some really big changes to what we see now.

 

[jack 23]

Gents,

thoughts on Holy Holy TMAD finish 11-20 for $9 Sportsbet?

Im not confident it will finish 11-20 but $9 is overs, should be more like $3

Its currently #23 on warm tunas.

I have no idea about the song itself whether its over represented or not, just pointing out an anomaly as I see it.

I am on it for a little bit.

 

[Gibbsy]

Gents,

thoughts on Holy Holy TMAD finish 11-20 for $9 Sportsbet?

Im not confident it will finish 11-20 but $9 is overs, should be more like $3

Its currently #23 on warm tunas.

I have no idea about the song itself whether its over represented or not, just pointing out an anomaly as I see it.

I am on it for a little bit.

Agree it's overs but I don't think it'll happen. It's about looking at songs above it and what could possibly fall behind, and the songs below it and what will rise. With the couple of top 20s we've posted above I just can't see it overtaking any of them.

 

[ye olde mole]

Beteasy have their build a bet up and running for the hottest 100 now - they are quick to respond although the ones I have requested haven’t given me the odds I was hoping for.