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- Sep 15, 2011
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This is not how elite sport works. The Brisbane Lions of the early 2000s could have played Collingwood at the MCG 10 times instead of two and the win-loss record would probably be 9-1, not because there’s no disadvantage playing away from home but because the Lions were a substantially better team. The inverse is true, Geelong 2007-11 could have played grand finals away and still won because they were that damn good. It doesn’t mean there isn’t an inherent advantage to playing at home.There have been 19 Grand Finals at the MCG between a Victorian team and a non-Victorian team and the record is 10-9 in favour of the Vic teams. As close to 50-50 as you can get.
The crowd split at the Grand Final is unlike a home and away game. The non-vic team has a huge presence - crowd support is split quite evenly. The travelling team comes down to Melbourne before the parade so they are here for a couple of days. The MCG also hosts 45 games per year. It’s a stadium not an intimate suburban ground that away teams barely play at like Kardinia Park. From a large sample size of 19 matches from 1992-2023 over 32 years, the 10-9 record shows there is no proveable advantage.
A lot of this crap comes down to people playing the victim. It’s seductive to play the victim because people get to blame things other than themselves for losing games. It’s human nature to play the victim and to take no responsibility.
Do Melbourne Storm play the victim? No. They get on with it and win premierships.
And the idea that the crowd split is even is a myth Victorians continue to peddle. It might not be 95-5, but it’s always 70-30 or more. Go watch the 2018 grand final and try tell me the Eagles’ support was similar to Collingwood’s. Or, you know, last year even. Or 2022. Or any grand final involving a non-Victorian team. If anyone wants to say the crowd is split evenly, I’ll happily let them know they are lying.