Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[JackOutback]

There have been 19 Grand Finals at the MCG between a Victorian team and a non-Victorian team and the record is 10-9 in favour of the Vic teams. As close to 50-50 as you can get.

The crowd split at the Grand Final is unlike a home and away game. The non-vic team has a huge presence - crowd support is split quite evenly. The travelling team comes down to Melbourne before the parade so they are here for a couple of days. The MCG also hosts 45 games per year. It’s a stadium not an intimate suburban ground that away teams barely play at like Kardinia Park. From a large sample size of 19 matches from 1992-2023 over 32 years, the 10-9 record shows there is no proveable advantage.

A lot of this crap comes down to people playing the victim. It’s seductive to play the victim because people get to blame things other than themselves for losing games. It’s human nature to play the victim and to take no responsibility.

Do Melbourne Storm play the victim? No. They get on with it and win premierships.

This is not how elite sport works. The Brisbane Lions of the early 2000s could have played Collingwood at the MCG 10 times instead of two and the win-loss record would probably be 9-1, not because there’s no disadvantage playing away from home but because the Lions were a substantially better team. The inverse is true, Geelong 2007-11 could have played grand finals away and still won because they were that damn good. It doesn’t mean there isn’t an inherent advantage to playing at home.

And the idea that the crowd split is even is a myth Victorians continue to peddle. It might not be 95-5, but it’s always 70-30 or more. Go watch the 2018 grand final and try tell me the Eagles’ support was similar to Collingwood’s. Or, you know, last year even. Or 2022. Or any grand final involving a non-Victorian team. If anyone wants to say the crowd is split evenly, I’ll happily let them know they are lying.

 

[Dan26]

This is not how elite sport works. The Brisbane Lions of the early 2000s could have played Collingwood at the MCG 10 times instead of two and the win-loss record would probably be 9-1, not because there’s no disadvantage playing away from home but because the Lions were a substantially better team. The inverse is true, Geelong 2007-11 could have played grand finals away and still won because they were that damn good. It doesn’t mean there isn’t an inherent advantage to playing at home.

None of this is relevant. There is a sample size of 19 Grand Finals at the MCG between Victorian teams and non-Victorian and the split is 10-9. Sometimes the Non-Vic team has been the better team (like Brisbane in 2003), sometimes the Vic team has been better and won. Sometimes the non-Vic side was inferior and won (like 1997 and 1998). It all averages out in the end and the record of 10-9 from a large sample size proves there is no provable advantage. You can't just ignore 30 years worth of stats that prove that results end up being 50-50, just because it doesn't suit the "victim" narrative of the non-Vic clubs.

And the idea that the crowd split is even is a myth Victorians continue to peddle. It might not be 95-5, but it’s always 70-30 or more. Go watch the 2018 grand final and try tell me the Eagles’ support was similar to Collingwood’s. Or, you know, last year even. Or 2022. Or any grand final involving a non-Victorian team. If anyone wants to say the crowd is split evenly, I’ll happily let them know they are lying.

You're speaking to someone who has been to 31 Grand Finals. I'd know more than anyone so take my advice as fact. Yes sometimes the split is close to 70-30, but that is still a lot of away support, and it's not an amount that is a disadvantage. 5-10% is a disadvantage. Listen to the massive roar when Dom Sheed's goal went through and the roar at the final siren in 2018. It is totally unlike an away game in the home and away season between Collingwood and West Coast. I was at that 2018 Grand Final and West Coast had plenty of support (including from most neutrals like myself) that it was clearly no disadvantage.

 

[RUNVS]

Like I said earlier, you talk out of your arse.
You must feel like a complete idiot by now.

Not at all. I am not the one arguing with a straight face that 15 of 17 flags going to Victorian clubs is fair.

 

[sr36]

This is not how elite sport works. The Brisbane Lions of the early 2000s could have played Collingwood at the MCG 10 times instead of two and the win-loss record would probably be 9-1, not because there’s no disadvantage playing away from home but because the Lions were a substantially better team. The inverse is true, Geelong 2007-11 could have played grand finals away and still won because they were that damn good. It doesn’t mean there isn’t an inherent advantage to playing at home.

And the idea that the crowd split is even is a myth Victorians continue to peddle. It might not be 95-5, but it’s always 70-30 or more. Go watch the 2018 grand final and try tell me the Eagles’ support was similar to Collingwood’s. Or, you know, last year even. Or 2022. Or any grand final involving a non-Victorian team. If anyone wants to say the crowd is split evenly, I’ll happily let them know they are lying.

It's not split evenly. But 20,000 people can make a lot of noise. so there's a crowd influence in either direction. Is it a coincidence that the WA teams who play in front of the most one-sided crowds have the biggest difference in win loss between H and A. And Collingwood, the team that gets the biggest turnout to interstate games has the smallest difference between their Vic and Non-Vic games?

But yes, an MCG Grand Final is obviously an advantage for the Vic teams who make the granny against a Non-Vic team. Is it a bigger advantage than the recruiting access held by non-Vic teams - where Vics are now firmly down the bottom now that the WA and SA teams have no matching limits on their much better NGA zones? Because as you said - it's sport, the best teams prevail anywhere. And only the best teams make the grand final to get that advantage. A leg up on becoming th best team seems pretty valuable to me.

 

[Dan26]

Not at all. I am not the one arguing with a straight face that 15 of 17 flags going to Victorian clubs is fair.

Between 1992 and 2006, non-vic sides won 10 of 15 Grand Finals despite making up only 37.5% of the teams in that time period (between 1992 and 1994 before Freo came in they made up only 33% of all teams)

Over those same 15 seasons they comprised 13 of the 30 sides that played in Grand Finals.

Even though Victorian sides have been more successful head-to head in recent times, the record since is still only 10-9 in head-to-head Grand Final match-ups at the MCG between Vic and non-vic teams. Essentially 50/50.

 

[doppleganger]

Not at all. I am not the one arguing with a straight face that 15 of 17 flags going to Victorian clubs is fair.

But you are lazily grouping teams together who aren't alike.

Port are nothing like West Coast, who are nothing like the Suns.

Just as Collingwood are nothing like North, who are nothing like Geelong.

Not only are you grouping teams that have completely different fixtures and pros n cons, you then cherry pick a timeframe and include seasons that clearly dont even fit your sook narrative in your fudged stats.

There are two real sets of teams - 10 animal mascots and 8 non-animal mascots.

Of your cherry picked last 17 premierships, 16 have been won by teams with animal mascots.

Go back even further, and of the 23 21st century premierships, 21 have gone to animal mascots.

There is an animal mascot bias, it is undeniable.

The Blues, Bombers, Saints, Suns, Dockers, Power, Giants and Demons are being shafted.

How can you sit there with a straight face and continue your sook when the numbers clearly show a much bigger bias exists in football?

 

[Colonial]

Someone's got to balance the bullshit and propaganda war being won by non-vic clubs which nuffies and the media are buying into.

Here's how ridiculous it is. Craig McRae comes out and says something that everyone knows and is well supported by data - home state advantage is real and includes umpiring. And the Nuffies are up in arms and come out and argue that he's talking rubbish and that it's only real for Vic teams ... no advantage in Non-Vic home games apparently...

that some strong stuff you are drinking

But, but, but, we have 10 games where we're at a disadvantage - you only have 5. Yes but we only have 5 where we're at an advantage, you have 10 ...

Pies fans

 

[Gavin Excell]

Reckon the teams in the 8 are now set. Carlton, Geelong and Bulldogs. What can be manufactured from here? The Cartel of AFL/VIC GOVT/MCC would love a Carlton fairytale but at moment atleast that looks unlikely.
I don't really think anybody wants Geelong, they are an awful club and virtually everybody is sick of them. They aren't that good any more either.
So Dogs? After the 2016 sideshow you really couldn't think the AFL could pull that off again? Could they?
Maybe it's the year that the Cartel concede one, as the VICBIAS calls are becoming harder to ignore. Then they can turn around and say "See, what Vicbias you infernal ingrates" then go back to business as usual next year.

Perhaps Port will not throw the towel in again and lose another home prelim final by 10 goals this year and give themselves a chance

 

[RUNVS]

Between 1992 and 2006, non-vic sides won 10 of 15 Grand Finals despite making up only 37.5% of the teams in that time period (between 1992 and 1994 before Freo came in they made up only 33% of all teams)

Over those same 15 seasons they comprised 13 of the 30 sides that played in Grand Finals.

Even though Victorian sides have been more successful head-to head in recent times, the record since is still only 10-9 in head-to-head Grand Final match-ups at the MCG between Vic and non-vic teams. Essentially 50/50.

Yes, and something has changed since then. From 2007 there has been a noticable shift, and it is likely down to the professioanlism of the competition now compared to the mid 90's. Things are tighter than they used to be and as a result the advantages that Victorian clubs get are more important due to the tighter nature of the competition.

 

[FootyLad0]

Reckon the teams in the 8 are now set. Carlton, Geelong and Bulldogs. What can be manufactured from here? The Cartel of AFL/VIC GOVT/MCC would love a Carlton fairytale but at moment atleast that looks unlikely.
I don't really think anybody wants Geelong, they are an awful club and virtually everybody is sick of them. They aren't that good any more either.
So Dogs? After the 2016 sideshow you really couldn't think the AFL could pull that off again? Could they?
Maybe it's the year that the Cartel concede one, as the VICBIAS calls are becoming harder to ignore. Then they can turn around and say "See, what Vicbias you infernal ingrates" then go back to business as usual next year.

Point out on the doll where Geelong pulled your pants down in front of 97k+ people for a historic margin that will never be beaten.

 

[doppleganger]

Yes, and something has changed since then. From 2007 there has been a noticable shift, and it is likely down to the professioanlism of the competition now compared to the mid 90's. Things are tighter than they used to be and as a result the advantages that Victorian clubs get are more important due to the tighter nature of the competition.

Something - what has changed?

Professionalism...why is that Vic v Non-vic?

What advantages do Carlton, North and Essendon get now compared to the mid 90s when they were dominant?

 

[LoungeLizard]

Not at all. I am not the one arguing with a straight face that 15 of 17 flags going to Victorian clubs is fair.

See you need to try and change the subject to try and save face.

You have been caught out, own it, all you are doing is making sure no-one ever takes your post seriously from now on.

Or in other words, you just talk out of your arse.

 

[Orange crush]

The VIC media are just as bad, if not worse than Sydney's NRL media. It's can't be even more clear this weekend with Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, Richmond out of the 8. Literally, JB's comments on Triple M yesterday, "What a disaster for the AFL cause it's gonna cost them money big time". Also massive panicking that their potentially won't be a final in Melbourne for the first 2 weeks.

Thank Christ the sexy young hawks have shown a bit

 

[Orange crush]

Pendlebury has played at 11 grounds in 400+ games …. Cadman at 13 grounds on 29 for the giants. The smaller clubs just get shafted with the extra travel rural grounds

 

[Colonial]

The VIC media are just as bad, if not worse than Sydney's NRL media.

Ish.
The Sydney NRL media only care about NRL, anything else doesn’t get a look in. But they do push and support their non NSW NRL clubs.
The AFL Media at least have other sports on. But it’s so parochial toward Vics it’s not funny.

It's can't be even more clear this weekend with Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, Richmond out of the 8. Literally, JB's comments on Triple M yesterday, "What a disaster for the AFL cause it's gonna cost them money big time". Also massive panicking that there potentially won't be a final in Melbourne for the first 2 weeks.

Doesn’t really concern me what state based media do, it’s when our national broadcasters are so clearly part of the Vic fishbowl and just carry on, pushing raiding the northern clubs, worrying only about Vic history/grassroots in the game and not caring about history/grassroots anywhere else.

 

[sr36]

Yes, and something has changed since then. From 2007 there has been a noticable shift, and it is likely down to the professioanlism of the competition now compared to the mid 90's. Things are tighter than they used to be and as a result the advantages that Victorian clubs get are more important due to the tighter nature of the competition.

I wonder why you're choosing 2007 as the starting point for this tighter competition?

You really do just make stuff up. A more even comp going back to 2007? In that period we saw some of the most dominant home and away teams in the history of the game. With the top couple of teams being miles above the pack in some of those seasons. 2011 for example, 20 and 19 wins each for the top 2 with percentages of 167 and 157 - 6 games clear of 5th. In 2008, Cats on top were 8 wins and 50 percentage points clear of 4th. Multiple dominant teams with 20 win seasons during that phase of evenness...

I do have to laugh though that you're using the current very even competition to argue rampant vicbias ... have you thought that through?

 

[Colonial]

Yes, Eddie likes using the line of "standing up for the little Melbourne clubs" too. It is all bullshit of course, he could not care less about St Kilda.

Always made me smile listening to Eddie “champion” for the smaller vic clubs so they would support him as the Pies got the best games at the most advantageous time slots for his sponsors and ratings.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Always made me smile listening to Eddie “champion” for the smaller vic clubs so they would support him as the Pies got the best games at the most advantageous time slots for his sponsors and ratings.

How dumb are you?
That's what presidents do.

Tell me what your club does for the rest of the comp, or do they just have their best interests at the fore?

Eddie was a racist, sure, but he did more for football on his own than GWS have done so far.

 

[doppleganger]

Pendlebury has played at 11 grounds in 400+ games …. Cadman at 13 grounds on 29 for the giants. The smaller clubs just get shafted with the extra travel rural grounds

So if Pendles played

Giants in Canberra instead of Sydney
Freo in Alice Springs instead of Perth
Pies played a Pendles themed home game in Gippsland instead of Marvel
Played a gather round game at Norwood Oval instead of Adelaide Oval

He gets to say he played on more grounds...but actually travelled less

 

[sr36]

Always made me smile listening to Eddie “champion” for the smaller vic clubs so they would support him as the Pies got the best games at the most advantageous time slots for his sponsors and ratings.

Eddie deserves crap for a lot of things. But he did actually campaign hard and help fund raise to keep the Dogs alive when they looked like going under.

 

[Orange crush]

So if Pendles played

Giants in Canberra instead of Sydney
Freo in Alice Springs instead of Perth
Pies played a Pendles themed home game in Gippsland instead of Marvel
Played a gather round game at Norwood Oval instead of Adelaide Oval

He gets to say he played on more grounds...but actually travelled less

It’s smaller interstate clubs being shunted to the rural grounds that is the point of bias …. Wake up sleepy

 

[doppleganger]

It’s smaller interstate clubs being shunted to the rural grounds that is the point of bias …. Wake up sleepy

So not an actual travel impost.

Who are they playing?

Which teams give up the home ground advantage - it aint, Sydney, WC, Adelaide, Brisbane

It is the Melbourne based teams who actually giving up a home game and home ground advantage.

Wake up

 

[Orange crush]

So not an actual travel impost.

Who are they playing?

Which teams give up the home ground advantage - it aint, Sydney, WC, Adelaide, Brisbane

It is the Melbourne based teams who actually giving up a home game and home ground advantage.

Wake up

Grow the game and send Carlton or Richmond to these shitholes once in a while …. They might get a crowd

Snooze you looze

 

[sr36]

It’s smaller interstate clubs being shunted to the rural grounds that is the point of bias …. Wake up sleepy

What actually is the disadvantage with this?

 

[LoungeLizard]

What actually is the disadvantage with this?

I'm trying to work this out, was sooking about Pendles, now he wants Carlton and Richmond to play these games.

I am fairly sure they are not sure either.