Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[sr36]

HGA is real - Home State advantage is real.
Travel issue is real.

None of this can be denied, every stake holder in the AFL system be it administration, Coaches, players, runners, water boys etc etc all agree the above is true.

Yet here we are still trying to make a case it is not true.

I agree with you.

The issue I have with much of the commentary is that the home ground and travel advantages are ignored for non-vic teams - all that's looked at is their disadvantages.

Ignoring gather round, the non-vic teams have the same number of games with a home ground and travel advantage as they have with a disadvantage. Same for the Melbourne teams who don't sell home games.

The only question regarding equality of home ground and travel is the question of the cumulative impact of additional travel. If someone can show me something that demonstrates that heavier travel during the season results in a decline in performance as the season goes on, I'll agree that the Melbourne teams have an overall advantage. But at the moment I just hear sooking about the 10 travels, whilst ignoring the advantage of the 10 times teams travel to play on non-vic club's home grounds.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

This might be all true, but put a price on it, how much does it hurt?

One bloke who should know, who is also crying about it now, took the team he coached on a holiday to the Gold Coast during finals, hypocrite?

Please explain why he would do that if travel is so bad?

Remember finals.

You are still looking for an answer I can't provide you. maybe ask Don Pyke?

 

[blue harvest]

If only we could run some sort of experiment for a couple of years where the Vic sides have to travel heaps, sleep in hotels all the time and get no finals at the G.

 

[The Feeder Club]

This thread is great because every dozen pages or so it recycles back to the point we're about to hit, where doppleganger explains to us why Collingwood playing 14 or 15 games a year at the mcg isn't the league's biggest advantage

 

[greatwhiteshark]

I agree with you.

The issue I have with much of the commentary is that the home ground and travel advantages are ignored for non-vic teams - all that's looked at is their disadvantages.

Ignoring gather round, the non-vic teams have the same number of games with a home ground and travel advantage as they have with a disadvantage. Same for the Melbourne teams who don't sell home games.

The only question regarding equality of home ground and travel is the question of the cumulative impact of additional travel. If someone can show me something that demonstrates that heavier travel during the season results in a decline in performance as the season goes on, I'll agree that the Melbourne teams have an overall advantage. But at the moment I just hear sooking about the 10 travels, whilst ignoring the advantage of the 10 times teams travel to play on non-vic club's home grounds.

Yep it works both ways for sure. I actually don't care about any of it as its part of a national comp we play in.
I do however care about that one day in September when I know if we are playing a victorian team we are not starting on an even playing field. And as thats the only day a premiership can be won then I think that needs to be resolved.

 

[sr36]

If only we could run some sort of experiment for a couple of years where the Vic sides have to travel heaps, sleep in hotels all the time and get no finals at the G.

Admittedly we didn't have to travel.

A 3 hour flight the day before the game can't be as good prep as not having a 3 hour flight the day efore the game. It does take a bit out of you. Which is not just why WA teams have a poor record away, but also why they have such a good record at home - they have a big advantage due to travel for their home games.

 

[sr36]

Yep it works both ways for sure. I actually don't care about any of it as its part of a national comp we play in.
I do however care about that one day in September when I know if we are playing a victorian team we are not starting on an even playing field. And as thats the only day a premiership can be won then I think that needs to be resolved.

I agree with you - it's an advantage, particularly for the MCG tenants.

 

[LoungeLizard]

You are still looking for an answer I can't provide you. maybe ask Don Pyke?

That's what I mean, you can't answer it, it doesn't quite make sense does it?

To me it sounds like he is trying to get an advantage, like the AFL said what many clubs did when they did that review thingy.

He doesn't sound like he is stupid, took a team to a GF, so knew what he was doing, also played for WC for years, so should have a good idea, yet still thought going to Gold Coast during finals was a good idea.

 

[LoungeLizard]

This thread is great because every dozen pages or so it recycles back to the point we're about to hit, where doppleganger explains to us why Collingwood playing 14 or 15 games a year at the mcg isn't the league's biggest advantage

What we should do, or you should, get a heap of you together and push for a fairer system,.

Just stop following what the AFL do, you don't like it, why follow.

Even if they changed where the GF was played, you are not going to like what you have to give to get that, it's just a guess, but you won't be playing home finals if the MCC lose the GF.

 

[doppleganger]

This thread is great because every dozen pages or so it recycles back to the point we're about to hit, where doppleganger explains to us why Collingwood playing 14 or 15 games a year at the mcg isn't the league's biggest advantage

I did note that we have already touched on travel doesn't count if you are the "home" team VICBias position

So as requested, if we were playing 14 games against teams who are unfamiliar with the G it would be a huge advantage.

The reality is we usually only get 4-5 games where the opponent isn't also familiar with the G.

You do realise that Port and Adelaide both get 13 games at AO, 11 of them where they enjoy an actual ground advantage.

 

[blue harvest]

I do however care about that one day in September when I know if we are playing a victorian team we are not starting on an even playing field. And as thats the only day a premiership can be won then I think that needs to be resolved.

But you need to finish high on the ladder and win other finals to get to that one day. Interstate sides have been over represented in the top part of the ladder and get a huge HGA in weeks 1-3. Look at poor old Richmond in 2018, finished several games clear on top but got no HGA in any of their finals, whilst the Eagles got an armchair ride to the GF.

 

[SC_Power]

I agree with you.

The issue I have with much of the commentary is that the home ground and travel advantages are ignored for non-vic teams - all that's looked at is their disadvantages.

Ignoring gather round, the non-vic teams have the same number of games with a home ground and travel advantage as they have with a disadvantage. Same for the Melbourne teams who don't sell home games.

The only question regarding equality of home ground and travel is the question of the cumulative impact of additional travel. If someone can show me something that demonstrates that heavier travel during the season results in a decline in performance as the season goes on, I'll agree that the Melbourne teams have an overall advantage. But at the moment I just hear sooking about the 10 travels, whilst ignoring the advantage of the 10 times teams travel to play on non-vic club's home grounds.

You look at any individual team, not the best teams each year.

If you are the best team in Victoria, then you would start favourites in 16 games a year minimum. 11 home games, and 5 away games against Melbourne based teams.
Add any match travelling to a bottom 6 team where you would be favourites, that makes 18.

Matches go as planned, there’s a top 4 finish and at least 1, probably 2 MCG finals, then a GF at the G.
That’s an impressive base on which to build a premiership tilt.

A Melbourne based team can’t be a Gold Coast 2024 (invincible home, appalling away) and even make finals.

It’s why all those standout home and away seasons are almost all Melbourne clubs. 19, 20, 21 win seasons.
West Coast got to 19 once, I can’t recall others. Port and Brisbane H&A seasons were as good as any 2002-3-4, never got past 18.

(note the above works in reverse, the worst Melbourne based teams cop a hiding H&A, and end up with 2-3-4 win seasons far more regularly as non Vic teams still pick up a few scalps at home).

It’s inbuilt into the locations of teams in the AFL, and not much can be done about it really.

 

[sr36]

You look at any individual team, not the best teams each year.

If you are the best team in Victoria, then you would start favourites in 16 games a year minimum. 11 home games, and 5 away games against Melbourne based teams.
Add any match travelling to a bottom 6 team where you would be favourites, that makes 18.

Matches go as planned, there’s a top 4 finish and at least 1, probably 2 MCG finals, then a GF at the G.
That’s an impressive base on which to build a premiership tilt.

A Melbourne based team can’t be a Gold Coast 2024 (invincible home, appalling away) and even make finals.

It’s why all those standout home and away seasons are almost all Melbourne clubs. 19, 20, 21 win seasons.
West Coast got to 19 once, I can’t recall others. Port and Brisbane H&A seasons were as good as any 2002-3-4, never got past 18.

(note the above works in reverse, the worst Melbourne based teams cop a hiding H&A, and end up with 2-3-4 win seasons far more regularly as non Vic teams still pick up a few scalps at home).

It’s inbuilt into the locations of teams in the AFL, and not much can be done about it really.

Except ladders generally haven't worked out that way. There's been equality between vic and non-vic at the top. Being favourite more often is great when you win those games - doesn't mean much when you lose - and the good non-vic clubs win a far greater proportion of the games where they are favourites, because they have more games with a home ground and travel advantage.

 

[oak79]

This thread is great because every dozen pages or so it recycles back to the point we're about to hit, where doppleganger explains to us why Collingwood playing 14 or 15 games a year at the mcg isn't the league's biggest advantage

But it's not... The Pies have it easy, but Geelong have the biggest advantage - combining the perks of MCG tenants & non-Vic teams.

A exclusive home ground advantage, a home state travel advantage, and a decent number of games at the G.

 

[Elixuh]

But it's not... The Pies have it easy, but Geelong have the biggest advantage - combining the perks of MCG tenants & non-Vic teams.

A exclusive home ground advantage, a home state travel advantage, and a decent number of games at the G.

But equally you have to live in Geelong. So it can’t be that much of an advantage.

 

[The Feeder Club]

You look at any individual team, not the best teams each year.

If you are the best team in Victoria, then you would start favourites in 16 games a year minimum. 11 home games, and 5 away games against Melbourne based teams.
Add any match travelling to a bottom 6 team where you would be favourites, that makes 18.

Matches go as planned, there’s a top 4 finish and at least 1, probably 2 MCG finals, then a GF at the G.
That’s an impressive base on which to build a premiership tilt.

A Melbourne based team can’t be a Gold Coast 2024 (invincible home, appalling away) and even make finals.

It’s why all those standout home and away seasons are almost all Melbourne clubs. 19, 20, 21 win seasons.
West Coast got to 19 once, I can’t recall others. Port and Brisbane H&A seasons were as good as any 2002-3-4, never got past 18.

(note the above works in reverse, the worst Melbourne based teams cop a hiding H&A, and end up with 2-3-4 win seasons far more regularly as non Vic teams still pick up a few scalps at home).

It’s inbuilt into the locations of teams in the AFL, and not much can be done about it really.

Something can be done about it, cull some Melbourne teams. That it won't happen in the short term doesn't mean it can't ever, it should be the primary strategic aim of the national competition. In the meantime until they finally face reality let's continue to tinker around with half arsed equalisation measures and ignore the main problem.
Funnily it would even help the alleged disadvantage Collingwood faces by playing so many MCG co-tenants in their punishing 14 or 15 games per year at the MCG. They'd play less there, but more of the opponents would be true away teams.

 

[doppleganger]

Except ladders generally haven't worked out that way. There's been equality between vic and non-vic at the top. Being favourite more often is great when you win those games - doesn't mean much when you lose - and the good non-vic clubs win a far greater proportion of the games where they are favourites, because they have more games with a home ground and travel advantage.

It is a nonsense position to focus on outliers, and ignore the bulk data.

Essendon and StK managed an out of the box season where they won 20 games, so Marvel tenants must be advantaged

There have been 23 completed H&A seasons in the 21st century.

The all important, top 2 on the ladder at the end of the H&A seasons

13 Melbourne based teams
33 Non-Melbourne teams

Teams who enjoy a ground advantage dominate H&A ladder. Looking like it will be two non Melbourne teams again in 2024.

It shouldn't be surprising if people get how important HGA is.

 

[SC_Power]

Except ladders generally haven't worked out that way. There's been equality between vic and non-vic at the top. Being favourite more often is great when you win those games - doesn't mean much when you lose - and the good non-vic clubs win a far greater proportion of the games where they are favourites, because they have more games with a home ground and travel advantage.

Never work out that way, except when they do.

AFL era

2008 Geelong 21-1
2000 Essendon 21-1
2011 Collingwood 20-2
2009 St Kilda 20-2
1995 Carlton 20-2
2011 Geelong 19-3
2013 Hawthorn 19-3
1991 West Coast 19-3

18 wins 2023 Collingwood, 1999 Essendon, 2022 Geelong, 2013 Geelong, 2009 Geelong, 2007 Geelong, 2011 Hawthorn, 2003 Port Adelaide, 2004 Port Adelaide, 2018 Richmond

So 15 seasons in 34 years, 7 different Victorian clubs have reached 18 wins.
Non Vic? 2 clubs, 3 seasons. (In bold in case you couldn’t see them)

Adelaide never, Brisbane never, Fremantle never, Gold Coast never, GWS never, Melbourne never, North Melbourne never, Sydney never, Bulldogs never
That’s a 3-4 split (not counting GWS/GC)

What that clearly indicates is that non Vic teams can only have top-level H&A seasons to put themselves in contention for a flag when there is no standout Vic club. And not the other way around.

But of course you’ll find a different spin.

 

[SC_Power]

Something can be done about it, cull some Melbourne teams. That it won't happen in the short term doesn't mean it can't ever, it should be the primary strategic aim of the national competition. In the meantime until they finally face reality let's continue to tinker around with half arsed equalisation measures and ignore the main problem.
Funnily it would even help the alleged disadvantage Collingwood faces by playing so many MCG co-tenants in their punishing 14 or 15 games per year at the MCG. They'd play less there, but more of the opponents would be true away teams.

Never gonna cull Melbourne teams, too much money involved (and Vic history in a national competition being more important than non-Vic history, but I digress)

The only way that I can see any level of addressing this is to build in a 2 division, promotion and relegation league (not conferences). Have strong teams playing strong teams, with a fairer finals system, and no guaranteed MCG Grand finals.
But I know that’s never gonna happen either.

 

[sr36]

Never work out that way, except when they do.

AFL era

2008 Geelong 21-1
2000 Essendon 21-1
2011 Collingwood 20-2
2009 St Kilda 20-2
1995 Carlton 20-2
2011 Geelong 19-3
2013 Hawthorn 19-3
1991 West Coast 19-3

18 wins 2023 Collingwood, 1999 Essendon, 2022 Geelong, 2013 Geelong, 2009 Geelong, 2007 Geelong, 2011 Hawthorn, 2003 Port Adelaide, 2004 Port Adelaide, 2018 Richmond

So 15 seasons in 34 years, 7 different Victorian clubs have reached 18 wins.
Non Vic? 2 clubs, 3 seasons. (In bold in case you couldn’t see them)

Adelaide never, Brisbane never, Fremantle never, Gold Coast never, GWS never, Melbourne never, North Melbourne never, Sydney never, Bulldogs never
That’s a 3-4 split (not counting GWS/GC)

What that clearly indicates is that non Vic teams can only have top-level H&A seasons to put themselves in contention for a flag when there is no standout Vic club. And not the other way around.

But of course you’ll find a different spin.

What are you talking about with the bolded?. Even if your point is correct and that there is something that advantages Non-Vic teams to give them the magical 20 win mark - finishing top is no advantage over finishing second... Top 2 positions have been equally distributed between non-vic and vic teams. And if you look at the home ground advantage club and thus inculed Geelong - it's the HGA club by a mile.

 

[doppleganger]

AFL era

2008 Geelong 21-1
2000 Essendon 21-1
2011 Collingwood 20-2
2009 St Kilda 20-2
1995 Carlton 20-2
2011 Geelong 19-3
2013 Hawthorn 19-3
1991 West Coast 19-3

Only 50% of those teams went on to be premiers. Being an outlier in H&A doesn't give you any extra special run to the GF.

For the easiest path to a GF you want to finish top2.

33 of the teams who finished top2 in the 21st century have been non-Melbourne teams.

Port and Brisbane have both has six top2 finishes. Poor WC and Adelaide have only finished top2 four times each.

The best Melbourne based team is Hawthorn, who travel 9-10 times a season anyway because of Tassie, with four top2 seasons...the same as WC.

Not really surprising that the teams who enjoy biggest ground advantage finish top2 the most.

 

[Sumwun]

Admittedly we didn't have to travel.

A 3 hour flight the day before the game can't be as good prep as not having a 3 hour flight the day efore the game. It does take a bit out of you. Which is not just why WA teams have a poor record away, but also why they have such a good record at home - they have a big advantage due to travel for their home games.

But it's not just a 3.5 hour flight. Add in the time/stress taken to pack, fight the traffic to get to the airport, check in, flight time, baggage retrieval, transport to wherever the team is staying and your looking at closer to 7 hours. It took me 7.45 hours from Melb CBD to home recently.

I accept that travel is involved when most teams are on the other side of a large country. What I can't accept is the fixturing that gives WA teams EXTRA travel on top that some Victorian teams could do, but don't (eg Tassie, Geelong). Then we have Gather Round which is more time away. Both WA teams should play Qld teams during Gather Round to lessen the travel distance for those 4 clubs.

 

[sr36]

But it's not just a 3.5 hour flight. Add in the time/stress taken to pack, fight the traffic to get to the airport, check in, flight time, baggage retrieval, transport to wherever the team is staying and your looking at closer to 7 hours. It took me 7.45 hours from Melb CBD to home recently.

I accept that travel is involved when most teams are on the other side of a large country. What I can't accept is the fixturing that gives WA teams EXTRA travel on top that some Victorian teams could do, but don't (eg Tassie, Geelong). Then we have Gather Round which is more time away. Both WA teams should play Qld teams during Gather Round to lessen the travel distance for those 4 clubs.

The point I'm making though is the bolded doesn't just apply to WA teams when they travel - it also applies to their opponents when they travel to WA and thus all those aspects balance out, The only question is whether there is an accumulated dsadvantage from doing it more often. The best way to see that would be whether WA teams perform worse as the year goes on. No idea if they do or don't.

Geelong isn't extra travel - it's quicker if you fly into Avalon. I'm not sure about Tassie, but I doubt it is. Yes Gather Round is silly, but the lengthy trip to QLD is actually already catered for. My understanding (could be wrong) is that the WA teams do that less frequently than other clubs.

To me - they've just got to make sure that there are suitable breaks between games to allow for full recovery.

But yes, GAther Round has skewed the draw and home ground/travel advantages to SA teams.

 

[Seeds]

Only 50% of those teams went on to be premiers. Being an outlier in H&A doesn't give you any extra special run to the GF.

For the easiest path to a GF you want to finish top2.

33 of the teams who finished top2 in the 21st century have been non-Melbourne teams.

Port and Brisbane have both has six top2 finishes. Poor WC and Adelaide have only finished top2 four times each.

The best Melbourne based team is Hawthorn, who travel 9-10 times a season anyway because of Tassie, with four top2 seasons...the same as WC.

Not really surprising that the teams who enjoy biggest ground advantage finish top2 the most.

Um geelong has made top 2 9-10 times in the 21st century.

 

[doppleganger]

Um geelong has made top 2 9-10 times in the 21st century.

Geelong are a non-Melbourne team who have retained their home ground advantage during H&A.

Teams who have strongest home ground advantage do best in H&A

Unlike Port, Geelong dont get to keep a HGA in finals.