Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[MF]

Is Craig McRae watching the Freo Cats game? Home ground advantage my ass.

In fairness to McRae he only stated his own team gets a leg up from the umpires at the MCG. He didn't indicate that he believed other teams get the same advantage as they do.

 

[Drought Break]

From memory...LOL

You can actually look em up.

Check the 2023 finals free kicks, Pies were dead last 42 for, 54 against.

The table run in 2018 compared 15 years of free kicks, and in a stunning showing, West Coast (919) received almost double the amount of free kicks as the next team, North Melbourne (472), over the past 15 years.

Pretty standard from ViCBias sooks, dont actually bother to check their assumption and then continue to rant and sook about a bias that isnt supported by stats.

c'mon mate, we only won the flag last year due to umpire assistance. As you stated correctly we were last in free kick count differentials for the finals and goals kicked and conceded from frees.

we will focus on the non advantage to the Lions player when he was 80m out, we will forget the run of free kicks (3 in one passage) to get the Lions within a goal with a few minutes remaining starting when Coleman should have been done holding the ball in front of our sticks which would have given a 16 point win.

Oh and Toby Greene in the GWS final, tackled high, Ginnivan would surely have been awarded that free.

 

[WeaponX]

I personally think Collingwood get a good rub of the green because of one major reason, they have a massive following and their crowd is loud. Umpires are definitely swayed by that noise and so be it, play away and they lose it.

 

[TW Sherrin]

In fairness to McRae he only stated his own team gets a leg up from the umpires at the MCG. He didn't indicate that he believed other teams get the same advantage as they do.

yet the stats clearly show the pies don't get a leg up at home.

unlike the swans.

 

[TW Sherrin]

home ground advantage is a real thing.....


for non Vic clubs (except Essendon).

 

[greatwhiteshark]

I personally think Collingwood get a good rub of the green because of one major reason, they have a massive following and their crowd is loud. Umpires are definitely swayed by that noise and so be it, play away and they lose it.

They have a big following in Melbourne. They could not get even close to filling the SCG on Friday night.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

home ground advantage is a real thing.....


for non Vic clubs (except Essendon).



View attachment 2076918

I wouldn't show this table to prove that point. Carlton seem to be going ok with it, as are Essendon. Sydney don't seem to have much of an advantage at Sydney according to this table.
As for your Pies, well it's because you have played poorly and lost games. Can't be more simpler than that.

All these things are relying on being a top side as well as having the HGA.

 

[bungwahl]

It isn't cancelled out is the point.

They non-Melbourne clubs always have more games where they enjoy a true ground advantage compared to where they actually experience a ground disadvantage.

The H&A ladder reflects the bias, as non-Melbourne based teams are over-represented in top4 positions.

Exactly as would expect based on AFL House policy that reduced home ground advantage for Melbourne teams only.

It's baffling when someone tries to claim that a Melb-based side has no home ground advantage against another Melb-based side when playing in Melbourne, but then argues that Melb-based sides still have away ground disadvantage when playing an away game in Melbourne. You can't have one without the other.

Also, using only this season's ladder as your evidence is quite laughable. Why not look at a full data set of seasons rather than just cherry pick the one season that you think proves your point?

Obv having the GF at the MCG is the biggest advantage in the game for Melbourne based clubs.

 

[sr36]

It's baffling when someone tries to claim that a Melb-based side has no home ground advantage against another Melb-based side when playing in Melbourne, but then argues that Melb-based sides still have away ground disadvantage when playing an away game in Melbourne. You can't have one without the other.

Also, using only this season's ladder as your evidence is quite laughable. Why not look at a full data set of seasons rather than just cherry pick the one season that you think proves your point?

Obv having the GF at the MCG is the biggest advantage in the game for Melbourne based clubs.

I'd say there's three aspects to advantage - ground familiarity, the crowd impacting player energy and umpiring, travel impacting players.

Non-vic teams have all three disadvantages every second week, but also all three advantages every second week. Melbourne teams get all 3 advantages less often, but have the disadvantages less often. Personally I think it all balances out in the home and away, but the unknown is is there a culumative negative impact from travelling more often making non-vic teams disadvantaged overall , or perhaps does it make you better travellers and thus less disadvantaged by the travel and thus advantaged overall.

**** knows, but it's pretty clear that in the long run, top 4 and top 8 home and away outcomes have been pretty even if looking at them through a non-vic vs vic lens. There certainly doesn't appear to have been vicbias in terms of home and away.

 

[Elixuh]

Have to agree with Horse here. A stunning admission from the coach of the club with the biggest home ground advantage in the league.

The whole place was rocking - Longmire

Hear from Swans senior coach John Longmire as he addresses the media ahead of our Round 23 clash with Essendon.

www.sydneyswans.com.au

 

[sr36]

Have to agree with Horse here. A stunning admission from the coach of the club with the biggest home ground advantage in the league.

The whole place was rocking - Longmire

Hear from Swans senior coach John Longmire as he addresses the media ahead of our Round 23 clash with Essendon.

www.sydneyswans.com.au

Are you and Horse a bit simple?

WA teams clearly have the biggest home ground advantage. Collingwood are the most level team in the league in terms of winning percentage at home versus interstate during the AFL era

 

[Elixuh]

Are you and Horse a bit simple?

WA teams clearly have the biggest home ground advantage. Collingwood are the most level team in the league in terms of winning percentage at home versus interstate during the AFL era

Are you saying McRae is lying in his presser?

 

[sr36]

Are you saying McRae is lying in his presser?

No. He's pointing out a statistical reality - when playing an interstate team at home, you're more likely to get the rub of the green with umpires. Non- Vic teams get that 10 times for them and 10 times against them. Pies sitting on 5 for them and 5 against them.

Clear 50 wasn't paid, probably would have been if it was in vic against an interstate team. Shit happens. That's just a reality of the game - in every sporting comp in the world. Home team gets the calls.

 

[Elixuh]

No. He's pointing out a statistical reality - when playing an interstate team at home, you're more likely to get the rub of the green with umpires. Non- Vic teams get that 10 times for them and 10 times against them. Pies sitting on 5 for them and 5 against them.

Clear 50 wasn't paid, probably would have been if it was in vic against an interstate team. Shit happens. That's the game.

I don't think Fly was thinking about statistical realities when he said that, immediately followed by a comment that the officiating was a 'circus'

 

[greatwhiteshark]

No. He's pointing out a statistical reality - when playing an interstate team at home, you're more likely to get the rub of the green with umpires. Non- Vic teams get that 10 times for them and 10 times against them. Pies sitting on 5 for them and 5 against them.

Clear 50 wasn't paid, probably would have been if it was in vic against an interstate team. Shit happens. That's just a reality of the game - in every sporting comp in the world. Home team gets the calls.

He was having a sook and thats ok, should be more of it where the coaches can speak their mind.

 

[sr36]

I don't think Fly was thinking about statistical realities when he said that, immediately followed by a comment that the officiating was a 'circus'

The insufficient intent rulings are and were a circus.

A lot carry on about the advantage of playing Friday night - **** that. It's rule lotto night. What's the umpires been coached to crack down on this week.

 

[Elixuh]

The insufficient intent rulings are and were a circus.

A lot carry on about the advantage of playing Friday night - **** that. It's rule lotto night. What's the umpires been coached to crack down on this week.

Yeah agree, but don't make out like Fly was making some insightful deep and meaningful comment about statistical realities. He was having a cry and a whine after being on the wrong side of a bad non-call late in a close game.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

The insufficient intent rulings are and were a circus.

A lot carry on about the advantage of playing Friday night - **** that. It's rule lotto night. What's the umpires been coached to crack down on this week.

Yes it has gone quickly from deliberate OOB to no intent to keep ball in play. And each umpire calls it differently.
Make it last touch and get on with it as thats where its heading.

 

[sr36]

Yeah agree, but don't make out like Fly was making some insightful deep and meaningful comment about statistical realities. He was having a cry and a whine after being on the wrong side of a bad non-call late in a close game.

I wasn't making that out. He was having a whinge. it is a whinge supported by data regarding home ground. Which I'd assume he knows. I was pointing out that both you and Longmire were being disingenuous - nothing points to the pies having the biggest home ground advantage in the league - nor was he saying the pies have a huge advantage at the mcg. He said that it should have been 50, but home ground umpiring is a thing. It is. If you watched the whole of the presser - he was very open that he's fighting the urge to blame - he pretty clearly lost the fight with the umpiring comments.

 

[sr36]

Yes it has gone quickly from deliberate OOB to no intent to keep ball in play. And each umpire calls it differently.
Make it last touch and get on with it as thats where its heading.

It hasn't even become that though - intent isn't relevant - it's become last touch for various actions but a throw in for other actions.

You can pick up a ball that isn't going out and run it over the line as long as someone is somewhere near you. No free. But if a ball is going out and you try to hit it forward and it goes out it's insuffient intent - even if it was a mishit or a miskick. It can be insufficient intent when you are trying to stop a ball going out, but not when you deliberately run the ball over the line. Complete nonsense - just make it last touch - except for a marking contest.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

It hasn't even become that though - intent isn't relevant - it's become last touch for various actions but a throw in for other actions.

You can pick up a ball that isn't going out and run it over the line as long as someone is somewhere near you. No free. But if a ball is going out and you try to hit it forward and it goes out it's insuffient intent - even if it was a mishit or a miskick. It can be insufficient intent when you are trying to stop a ball going out, but not when you deliberately run the ball over the line. Complete nonsense - just make it last touch - except for a marking contest.

Yes it's just another failed rule that was never broken and was never needing to be fixed. Worked fine for years as it was. it was how you defended your lead. No one complained about it. Who asked for it to be changed?
Name me another sport in the world where you can advance the ball 40m in your teams direction and get penalised for it.
AFL= Auskick footy league

 

[Elixuh]

I wasn't making that out. He was having a whinge. it is a whinge supported by data regarding home ground. Which I'd assume he knows. I was pointing out that both you and Longmire were being disingenuous - nothing points to the pies having the biggest home ground advantage in the league - nor was he saying the pies have a huge advantage at the mcg. He said that it should have been 50, but home ground umpiring is a thing. It is. If you watched the whole of the presser - he was very open that he's fighting the urge to blame - he pretty clearly lost the fight with the umpiring comments.

Am I ever disingenuous?

 

[RUNVS]

Craig Mcrae

Craig Mcrae

Age

50

Ht

176cm

Wt

73kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.9

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

16.2

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.2

3star

G

1.4

5star

admitted what a farce it is that the Grand Final is always at the MCG. He outright said how much of an advantage it is playing at the MCG.

 

[sr36]

Yes it's just another failed rule that was never broken and was never needing to be fixed. Worked fine for years as it was. it was how you defended your lead. No one complained about it. Who asked for it to be changed?
Name me another sport in the world where you can advance the ball 40m in your teams direction and get penalised for it.
AFL= Auskick footy league

There are lots of sports where you're penalised for last touch if you've moved forward.

Rugby, like ours used to, varies on whether it lands inside or not. We've just made it impossible to adjudicate by making it a different outcome for different actions that then differs again regarding where players are roughly positioned, and also differs depending where on the ground it happens - eg - mis-kicked shots at goal that bounce out should be frees against if it was adjudicated up forward in the same way as it's adjudicated when coming out of defence..

 

[RUNVS]

There are lots of sports where you're penalised for last touch if you've moved forward.

Rugby, like ours used to, varies on whether it lands inside or not. We've just made it impossible to adjudicate by making it a different outcome for different actions that then differs again regarding where players are roughly positioned, and also differs depending where on the ground it happens - eg - mis-kicked shots at goal that bounce out should be frees against if it was adjudicated up forward in the same way as it's adjudicated when coming out of defence..

I think "could the player have made a stronger effort to keep the ball in" should be the determining factor. I hate seeing players "fumble" the ball over the boundary when everyone knows if it was not near the boundary the player would have taken that ball cleanly.

Also I would be much harsher with deliberate behinds.