Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[PenfoldsFan]

You do. The long run data is unequivocal. Nearly every team is positive regarding frees at home and negative away.

You guys bat 10% over in FF vs FA at home. Away you're 10% down. Standard for the non-vic teams who have a big advantage at home and disadvantage away.

Check out the table. The Vic team team situation can't be read as easily as it goes back to 1964. But it's crystal clear for the Non-Vic teams. Advantage at home. Disadvantage away.

AFL Tables - Free Kicks

Yesteryear means F. all this year mate. This year were top 2 and got pumped by umps @ home against the Dees with a 50pt turnaround from 10 frees against in 20 minutes in rd3.
In rd4 we pumped the Bombers by 70pts and lost the free count 9-20.

Wheres our voice of affirmation when were good and @80%+ capacity?
-10 frees in 20 mins that results in a 50pt turnaround nullifies our crowd, so we lose the rub and the voice.
Are you suggesting sleeping in our own beds and playing on familiar grass outweighs that?
Didnt end that way.

 

[sr36]

Yesteryear means F. all this year mate. This year were top 2 and got pumped by umps @ home against the Dees with a 50pt turnaround from 10 frees against in 20 minutes in rd2.
In rd4 we pumped the Bombers by 70pts and lost the free count 9-20.

Wheres our voice of affirmation when were good and @80%+ capacity?
-10 frees in 20 mins that results in a 50pt turnaround nullifies our crowd, so we lose the rub and the voice.
Are you suggesting sleeping in our own beds and playing on familiar grass outweighs that?
Didnt end that way.

I don't know mate. If you've had a couple of games where you lost the free kick count, I'd be tossing up between carrying on about vicbias and spitting on the coach if I was you. Either way, you should shot gun some red tins.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

I wasn't being specific about umpires. I was more trying to say that Home Gorund Advantage = playing in home ground....familiar with dimensions of ground/conditions, playing in front of home crowd etc.

Oh ffs, so sleeping at home and playing on familiar grass somehow outweighs 4 blokes with whistles who can, and do as seen in rd3, swing a game in the Vic clubs favour in 20 minutes, not only despite our crowd, but silencing them altogether, is still to our advantage.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

I don't know mate. If you've had a couple of games where you lost the free kick count, I'd be tossing up between carrying on about vicbias and spitting on the coach if I was you. Either way, you should shot gun some red tins.

Deflection post.

 

[sr36]

Deflection post.

I showed you clear data of long term outcomes - and you came back with that shit doesn't apply because we had two unlucky games this year. Ridiculous. Well we don't have an MCG advantage because we lost to Sydney and Geelong there this year. That's the type of logic you're going with.

 

[LoungeLizard]

I showed you clear data of long term outcomes - and you came back with that shit doesn't apply because we had two unlucky games this year. Ridiculous. Well we don't have an MCG advantage because we lost to Sydney and Geelong there this year. That's the type of logic you're going with.

I actually think Port have a better Home % than Collingwood do this year, but sooks will sook I suppose.

 

[sr36]

To be honest I couldnt be ****ed bringing anything else to the table with you lot, Dillon could come out and admit he personally directs the umps to favour Vic clubs both home and away and youd still cling to denial.
Its in your blood, like Covid.

You think I'm the one ignoring clear evidence? The data is bloody hard to argue with as much as you want to be the victim of a conspiracy against you. Do you need someone to explain that table I posted to you?

 

[LoungeLizard]

To be honest I couldnt be ****ed bringing anything else to the table with you lot, Dillon could come out and admit he personally directs the umps to favour Vic clubs both home and away and youd still cling to denial.
Its in your blood, like Covid.

Really?
Port have a better home % than Collingwood do yet you still want more, that is the very definition of a sook.

Fair dinkum mate, you take the cake.

 

[sr36]

Really?
Port have a better home % than Collingwood do yet you still want more, that is the very definition of a sook.

Fair dinkum mate, you take the cake.

Making up Dillon quotes and saying that people would ignore the fictional quotes even if they were real quotes - whilst completely ignoring actual real not made up data and suggesting it's bullshit... FMD.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

You think I'm the one ignoring clear evidence? The data is bloody hard to argue with as much as you want to be the victim of a conspiracy against you. Do you need someone to explain that table I posted to you?

Not right now, I'll pop back in sometime next month, im sure you'll be here, its your calling.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Making up Dillon quotes and saying that people would ignore the fictional quotes even if they were real quotes - whilst completely ignoring actual real not made up data and suggesting it's bullshit... FMD.

You shot him down in flames so he thought he'd throw that in, and he reckons you deflct, BWAHahahaha

 

[LoungeLizard]

Not right now, I'll pop back in sometime next month, im sure you'll be here, its your calling.

Yeah go put yourself out, those flames must be hot.

 

[sr36]

Not right now, I'll pop back in sometime next month, im sure you'll be here, its your calling.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

View attachment 2078090

He looks sick, did u give him Rona too?

 

[doppleganger]

I think you're arguing my point.

Nope, my point is pretty clear...ground advantage is the most important factor.

Pies vs Tigers at the G means no genuine home ground advantage for Pies AND no genuine away ground disadvantage for Tigers. As you say, neutral. (It's not really just MCG tenants either - all Melb based clubs have local supporter bases)

Yes a zero sum game between Melbourne teams (unless you want to get into minute argument where a team plays 9 games v 12 games is at a disadvantage).

Interstate sides have 11 games with genuine home ground advantage, and 11 with genuine away ground disadvantage.

It's a zero sum game and it evens out.

No they are all different

Sydney have 11 SCG games, all 11 with home advantage
Port have 13 AO games, 11 with home advantage and 2 neutral
WC have 12 Optus games, 10 with home advantage
Gold Coast only get 9 games on the Gold Coast

And they dont even out, because Melbourne based teams dont get all their home games on their home deck. And it is the games against non-vic sides which are moved.

Port and Adelaide play 13 AO games, 11 with an advantage. They only play 10 games away from Adealide but only 9 are at the home ground of their opponent.

Advantage Adelaide and Port.

WC and Freo play 12 Optus games, 10 with an advantage. They play 11 away from Perth, but only 9 are at the home ground of their opponent.

Advantage WC and Freo.

Lets do Hawthorn

Hawthorn play 9 games at MCG, only 2 with any advantage against nonMelbourne teams. They play 11 away from Melbourne, but only 5 at the home ground of their opponent.

Not seeing much of an advantage

Lets do WB
Bulldogs play 12 games at Marvel, only 4 with an advantage against nonMelbourne teams. They play 9 away from Melbourne, but only 6 at the home ground of their opponent.

Not seeing any advantage for the Dogs either.

Yet the lazy VICBias position is it is the Hawks and Dogs who are advantaged by the fixture - despite Hawthorn travel more than the SA sides, and only actually get 2 games at the G with any home ground advantage.

IWhat doesn't even out is the travel, media coverage, local talent, player retention, external career opportunities, and grand final location.

Yeah, how ridiculous that Hawthorn can travel more than SA teams.

And small Melbourne clubs get no media exposure, unlike Sydney.

But keep up the lazy VICBias sook.

 

[adammania9]

Wish we could have more seasons like 2020 and 21 where Victorian clubs prevail over inept interstate clubs despite every disadvantage

 

[Monsterdarlz]

You're talking about money, then tried to use Collingwood to make a point, Collingwood are allowed to spend the SAME amount West Coast are, or if you want it another way, West Coast can spend the SAME as Collingwood can.

Now if you want to talk about other points do that, but by using Collingwood in every argument you try to make, proves your hate, no matter how much you want to deny it.

Which it self is an inherent disadvantage to attract coaches and football department talent

 

[RUNVS]

Wish we could have more seasons like 2020 and 21 where Victorian clubs prevail over inept interstate clubs despite every disadvantage

15 of 17.

 

[SuperSub17]

15 of 17.

Have you found any teams who average 13 interstate trips yet?

I’m giving you a sixth opportunity to admit you made it up.

 

[King_Tredrea]

Vicbias only exists in terms of the media and they way analyze and critique i.e if Ken Hinkley coached a Victorian club he would have been driven out (rightly) in 2017 or 18. In terms of the way the league actually functions it has no bearing

 

[sr36]

15 of 17.

You're logic does my head in. You ignore outcomes from thousands of events - yet think outcomes from 17 events are definitive proof.

Home and away results are the product of approximately 200 games a year. So over those 17 years about 3400 games or events have produced the ladder results. They've been really even and proportional for Vic and Non-Vic when looking at making finals, making top 4. Yet you insist that a heap of factors cause bias right throughout the home and away season ... Completely ignoring the outcomes from all those games

With Premierships - it's all about the outcomes for you, you've then cherry picked a sample size to try to show maximum bias towards Victoria. You've also included a couple of anomoulous seasons where the Vic clubs clearly weren't advantaged in the final series by any of the factors raised - so with your cherry picked sample it's really 13 of 15. For the first 5 of those 15 there were 10 vic teams to 6 Non-vic teams. Then for the next 10 it was 10 vic teams to 8 Non-Vic. Overall if it was a coin toss, in the long run you'd expect the outcome to average 9 to 6 in Victoria's favour. 13 to 2 is advantageous but not that far off and also a result that would pop up frequently in long run coin flipping.

Now let's look at it if the sample size is changed - I'm going to cherry pick a sample going back to 2001. Vics lead 13 to 8 in flags over those years. Now looking at respective numbers of teams in the comp during the relevant years - the outcome you'd expect to average is 12.4 flags to Vic 8.6 to Non-Vic ... Ridiculous close to what you'd expect if the results were purely unbiased chance.

All of that ignores the unfortunate reality (unfortunate for both Non-Vic and most Vic teams) that Geelong and Hawthorn had easily the best players for 3 out of the 4 flags they won each. And Richmond had tactics that were well ahead of the game for all 3 of theres. It's not a coin toss.

 

[sr36]

Vicbias only exists in terms of the media and they way analyze and critique i.e if Ken Hinkley coached a Victorian club he would have been driven out (rightly) in 2017 or 18. In terms of the way the league actually functions it has no bearing

No flags, but he's got an excellent win/loss record. Players love him and no controversies. He would have survived without being questioned at all at some of the Vic teams who are less used to winning premierships than Port Adelaide with their squillion in the SANFL.

 

[doppleganger]

Have you found any teams who average 13 interstate trips yet?

I’m giving you a sixth opportunity to admit you made it up.

The poor battler actually includes seasons when Vic teams didnt play in Vic as part of his cherry picked sample size as his "evidence".

He will blatantly make up shite to support his lazy VICBias position.

His own Swans are the darlings who the AFL want to be strong, and they have unsurprisngly played in the most AFL GFs of the 21st century.

But as the Swans have embarassed themselves a couple of times in GFs, it is easier to sook then simply accept that on the day the Swans simply didn't show up.

 

[Jez1974]

Total games in Victoria:

Essendon 17
Carlton 17
Collingwood 17
Bulldogs 17
Richmond 16
St Kilda 16
Geelong 16
Melbourne 15 (sell their 16th to Alice)
Hawthorn 13 (sell 4 to Launceston)
North 13 (sell 4 to Hobart)

Strange why we only ever hear about one team’s “home” games though…

That's the name of the thread right there!!!

 

[tribey]

No flags, but he's got an excellent win/loss record. Players love him and no controversies. He would have survived without being questioned at all at some of the Vic teams who are less used to winning premierships than Port Adelaide with their squillion in the SANFL.

He’s literally got the record for the longest-serving VFL/AFL coach of all-time to never make a Grand Final, so I very much doubt that.

His five year span between 2015-2019 would’ve seen him sacked anywhere, without all the other failures of the extended timespan loaded in.