Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[BigVic]

Since 2007, only Sydney (2012) and West Coast (2018) are the only non-Victorian teams to win premierships in the last 17 years.

How come only 2 teams outside Victoria won a flag between 2007 and now?

 

[Purple Suit]

Since 2007, only Sydney (2012) and West Coast (2018) are the only non-Victorian teams to win premierships in the last 17 years.

How come only 2 teams outside Victoria won a flag between 2007 and now?

I've done the research and since 2007, only 2 Grand Finals have been played outside Victoria. These stats line up exactly so it can't be a coincidence.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Since 2007, only Sydney (2012) and West Coast (2018) are the only non-Victorian teams to win premierships in the last 17 years.

How come only 2 teams outside Victoria won a flag between 2007 and now?

* Since 2005, only Sydney (2005, 2012) and West Coast (2006, 2018)

 

[JayJ20]

 

[ElectricG]

4. You're missing the point.

The poster you're agreeing with believes that the umpires cheat to produce contrived results. It is definitively a conspiracy theory that they're pushing. There is no grey. It being a conspiracy theory is as black and white as the jumper they want to wear.

Other points regarding advantages of MCG Grand Final, recruiting, travel etc aren't conspiracy theories - they're theories regarding advantages and disadvantages.

In terms of your coin toss analogy. The main data used to support the theory of overall vicbias is recent premierships; home and away data points don't corrolate with the theories; however tossing a coin 15 times and getting 13 heads is not proof of a biased coin - it happens with unbiased coins. However, in footy the coin is biased, as not all 18 teams are equal. Some are more likely to win than others. The coins that have been most strongly biased for periods recently have been Richmond, Geelong before them, Hawthorn before that, before that it was Brisbane, previously WCE. Last year Collingwood and Brisbane were the two most biased coins and no doubt the MCG GF helped Collingwood on Grand Final day. This year the most biased coins are in the North - one of them just had a gutting exit, which came down to them.

Rather than creating a false vic vs non-vic comp, look at the particular coins and work out how they became biased and more likely to win. Geelong didn't become a biased coin and win 3 in 5 years because Collingwood poached Treloar, Adams and WHE from GWS. That Cats team was from the draft - not poaching. THey didn't win them because Collingwood play 14 games at the MCG. Hawthorn didn't win them because Collingwood only travelled 5 times in those years. Richmond didn't become a biased coin because the press favours Collingwood and Carlton stories - the tigers had been a laughing stock, the butt of jokes for decades before that run of glory - both in and out of the media.

If I thought it was a conspiracy, I wouldn't be calling it 'bias'. I understand that sometimes a non-vic side will get the rub of the green over a vic side. For example, I don't think our home game against the Saints would've gone our way this year if not for the umpiring. My view is that the umpiring in general goes the way of Victorian teams, especially in critical moments and important games. Since I've been following AFL there have been only two teams who I thought were obviously umpired to a premiership: Collingwood and the Bulldogs. West Coast had a high free kick count in 2018, but I don't recall watching any of their games and thinking the outcome was largely influenced by the umpiring.
As for the 'why', sometimes I will make a comment suggesting that there is a deliberate/blatant agreement among umpires to make sure the vic side wins. These are either unserious or made in frustration (sooking I guess). What seems plausible to me is that within the AFL there is a tacit agreement among higher-ups that they want vic success, which naturally trickles down to areas like umpiring in spite of it being no benefit to those individuals. For example, when you're at work do you not subconsciously act in the interests of your employer irrespective of whether you have anything to gain monetarily or in terms of your reputation?
I know to you this sounds like freudian BS and a long bow to draw but it's pretty straight forward. You're an umpire and you need to make a contentious call or non-call in a critical moment. You know your place in the org chart, and therefore you know that most people who sit above you in it get a bit of a tingly feeling in the downstairs region when they see slow panning shots of Dusty and N Daicos side-eyeing the camera as part of the fox footy promotional material. What is the path of least resistance for you? Is it more acceptable for you to shaft a vic or non-vic side? It's pretty obvious, and it's the only way that nights like Friday night are explained.

 

[ibd77]

 

[PenfoldsFan]

We can't unite with Port, it's the other Non-Vic fans viewing it as a 2 team rather than 18 team comp who've already willingly united with Port. WCE and Sydney fans who've spent months nodding along and encouraging crazy conspiracy theorists - a rag tag of nutter enablers and encouragers from the North and the West have already embraced the conspiracy theorists, who are really just having a sook because they no longer win their comp every year and are doing so under the banner of their love for equality ...

No, it was your greats who made it a 2-team comp when they cried that 'Victorian' football was struggling.
At that point the previous decade had featured Vic clubs in 7 of 10 Gf's.
North in 96
St Kilda 97
North 98
North and Carlton 99
Melbourne and Essendon 00
Essendon 01
Collingwood 02, 03
Yet because 'Victorian' football didn't have a dog in the 3 consecutive GF's that followed suddenly it's a collective 'Victorian' issue and needed an inquiry.
You drew the boundaries.
You didn't care about Freo's plight, you still don't.

Since then its 15-2 and still don't care

I guess you stuck it right up us..

You made it us and them.

 

[sr36]

If I thought it was a conspiracy, I wouldn't be calling it 'bias'. I understand that sometimes a non-vic side will get the rub of the green over a vic side. For example, I don't think our home game against the Saints would've gone our way this year if not for the umpiring. My view is that the umpiring in general goes the way of Victorian teams, especially in critical moments and important games. Since I've been following AFL there have been only two teams who I thought were obviously umpired to a premiership: Collingwood and the Bulldogs. West Coast had a high free kick count in 2018, but I don't recall watching any of their games and thinking the outcome was largely influenced by the umpiring.
As for the 'why', sometimes I will make a comment suggesting that there is a deliberate/blatant agreement among umpires to make sure the vic side wins. These are either unserious or made in frustration (sooking I guess). What seems plausible to me is that within the AFL there is a tacit agreement among higher-ups that they want vic success, which naturally trickles down to areas like umpiring in spite of it being no benefit to those individuals. For example, when you're at work do you not subconsciously act in the interests of your employer irrespective of whether you have anything to gain monetarily or in terms of your reputation?
I know to you this sounds like freudian BS and a long bow to draw but it's pretty straight forward. You're an umpire and you need to make a contentious call or non-call in a critical moment. You know your place in the org chart, and therefore you know that most people who sit above you in it get a bit of a tingly feeling in the downstairs region when they see slow panning shots of Dusty and N Daicos side-eyeing the camera as part of the fox footy promotional material. What is the path of least resistance for you? Is it more acceptable for you to shaft a vic or non-vic side? It's pretty obvious, and it's the only way that nights like Friday night are explained.

So are you walking back the rubbish about umpires "cheating", "Umpires are cheats." that you've said multiple times?

Umpires are impacted by crowds. Free kick data regarding that is pretty unequivocal in all states of the country. In all sporting comps in the world. It's also undoubted that club supporters forget the good ones they got really quickly and remember the bad ones for a very long time - it's negativity bias - how we're hard-wired.

Your final paragraph is paranoia fuelled by your negativity bias where you remember the ones that went against your team and not the ones that went in your favour. And you're surrounded by people who feel the same, so your bias is confirmed. And then it's pretty easy to come up with a theory just as the one you have to assert that the bias is against you. Everyone around you will agree and thus you'll become sure it's true.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

And you're surrounded by people who feel the same, so your bias is confirmed. And then it's pretty easy to come up with a theory just as the one you have to assert that the bias is against you. Everyone around you will agree and thus you'll become sure it's true.

Like the Collingwood fans in this thread telling themselves that travel isn't a factor? That non-Vic clubs have inflated ladder positions because Port have a history of choking? That Northern academies are a massive advantage but that the poaching of Vic-born players from those clubs by Collingwood et al year in, year out is perfectly acceptable and sustainable for those clubs?

 

[Philth]

It's Hinkley's fault.

And Ginnivan.

And Vic bias.

Campaigners all.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

So are you walking back the rubbish about umpires "cheating", "Umpires are cheats." that you've said multiple times?

Umpires are impacted by crowds. Free kick data regarding that is pretty unequivocal in all states of the country. In all sporting comps in the world. It's also undoubted that club supporters forget the good ones they got really quickly and remember the bad ones for a very long time - it's negativity bias - how we're hard-wired.

Your final paragraph is paranoia fuelled by your negativity bias where you remember the ones that went against your team and not the ones that went in your favour. And you're surrounded by people who feel the same, so your bias is confirmed. And then it's pretty easy to come up with a theory just as the one you have to assert that the bias is against you. Everyone around you will agree and thus you'll become sure it's true.

Umpires are impacted by crowds you say?

This year we won 4 of 9 free kick counts against Vic clubs in front of our crowd.
We only won 2 from 7 in front of your crowds.

Sure looks like the umpires disregard crowd noise at our home games but takes notice at yours.

Nothing to see though, I'm sure.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

The only Vicbias Vics will acknowledge is the GF and we all know that's only because it's locked in and won't be changing anytime soon so it's safe to admit and troll with.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

The only Vicbias Vics will acknowledge is the GF and we all know that's only because it's locked in and won't be changing anytime soon so it's safe to admit and troll with.

The most mind-blowing for me was when I said that if Hawthorn/Norf are to host games in Tassie, then every club should have to play them there, not just a select group of non-Vic clubs (including the two that already travel the most) and I saw that perfectly reasonable suggestion shouted down by our magpie friends.

I know there have been some dumb arguments on both sides (for example, I agree with the Vics that the Doggies should 100% play their home finals at Marvel, same with Geelong at Kardinya), but man. The Tassie thing was when I knew this was not the thread for "genuine discussion"

 

[peetoo]

The most mind-blowing for me was when I said that if Hawthorn/Norf are to host games in Tassie, then every club should have to play them there, not just a select group of non-Vic clubs (including the two that already travel the most) and I saw that perfectly reasonable suggestion shouted down by our magpie friends.

I know there have been some dumb arguments on both sides (for example, I agree with the Vics that the Doggies should 100% play their home finals at Marvel, same with Geelong at Kardinya), but man. The Tassie thing was when I knew this was not the thread for "genuine discussion"

Of course when the national comp gets a Tassie team every club will play there on rotation

Not sure any remediative action is needed. I get that complainants don’t really want that, just like to complain

My suggestion is that while it’s impossible to change the mathematical reason vic clubs don’t travel as much, the season could be structured so that the last month or so could see all teams travelling every second week.

Meaning local derby’s and vic v vic would be concentrated at beginning or middle of season

 

[sr36]

Umpires are impacted by crowds you say?

This year we won 4 of 9 free kick counts against Vic clubs in front of our crowd.
We only won 2 from 7 in front of your crowds.

Sure looks like the umpires disregard crowd noise at our home games but takes notice at yours.

Nothing to see though, I'm sure.

FFS. You've found a short block of games that are against a very well established trend:

Here's the longer term free kick differentials by club home and away. Port have done very well at home and not well away:

AFL Tables - Free Kicks

 

[Cleric]

Port v hawks umpiring was totally mystifying in ‘interpretation’. I can’t see the bias though

The issue is that the interpretation went one way and not the other, and absolutely could have cost them a finals match. They got two goals from bad decisions, in a game that had a 4 PT margin. Last year the Crows lost a game by one point, after a bad decision that called a goal a point. It was umpire error rather than biased.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

FFS. You've found a short block of games that are against a very well established trend:

Here's the longer term free kick differentials by club home and away. Port have done very well at home and not well away:

AFL Tables - Free Kicks

Nice try but that covers all games.

This is a Vicbias thread that you raised the topic of crowd noise influencing umpiring decisions in and its pretty clear that Vic clubs have had the rub, regardless of who the majority crowd are, in season 2024.

 

[sr36]

Nice try but that covers all games.

This is a Vicbias thread that you raised the topic of crowd noise influencing umpiring decisions in and its pretty clear that Vic clubs have had the rub, regardless of who the majority crowd are, in season 2024.

What?

It covers all clubs free kick differentials home and away, including all the Vic and Non-Vic teams.

Here's something on 2024. What you're asserting with such certainty can't be seen in this:

The 2024 Free Kick Ladder for the home and away season

The latest numbers.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Not sure any remediative action is needed. I get that complainants don’t really want that, just like to complain

Wat

 

[PenfoldsFan]

What?

It covers all clubs free kick differentials home and away, including all the Vic and Non-Vic teams.

Here's something on 2024. What you're asserting with such certainty can't be seen in this:

The 2024 Free Kick Ladder for the home and away season

The latest numbers.

www.sen.com.au

FFS, It includes games we play against other non Vics both home and away and has no relevance to vicbias.

Now lets look at Adelaide and its crowd influencing umpire free kick counts against ONLY Vic teams home and away..

Home 4W 3L
Away 1W 4L

They get a 1 game advantage at AO to Vic clubs and 3 game disadvantage away to Vic clubs.

West Coast..

Home 3W 4L
Away 2W 4L

Freo

Home 3W 2L
Away 1W 4L

GWS..

Home 0W 5L
Away 3W 3L

Bit of a trend emerging

 

[doppleganger]

Like the Collingwood fans in this thread telling themselves that travel isn't a factor?

It isn't a vic v non-vic factor.

Some vic teams travel just as much as Sydney, and more than the SA teams.

Travel is really a WA v the rest issue.

That non-Vic clubs have inflated ladder positions because Port have a history of choking?

Your first part is correct, but your rationale is moronic.

Non-Melbourne clubs dominate the H&A ladder - this is fact. The reason, because ground advantage is important.

Non-Melbourne teams retain home ground advantage but face a diluted away ground disadvantage as they often play 4 or 5 games at the venue, or the "home" team is also playing at a ground they are unfamiliar with.

That Northern academies are a massive advantage

This is a fact.

the poaching of Vic-born players from those clubs by Collingwood et al year in, year out is perfectly acceptable and sustainable for those clubs?

SA and WA clubs benefit even more from the "go home" factor.

Go home isnt a vic v the rest, it is a northern teams v the rest.

The problem is that people lazily trot out "vicbias" at anything that slightly upsets them.

Results show that in the 21st century it is small Melbourne clubs (Marvel tenants primarily) who are disadvantaged.

 

[sr36]

FFS, It includes games we play against other non Vics both home and away and has no relevance to vicbias.

Now lets look at Adelaide and its crowd influencing umpire free kick counts against ONLY Vic teams home and away..

Home 4W 3L
Away 1W 4L

They get a 1 game advantage at AO to Vic clubs and 3 game disadvantage away to Vic clubs.

West Coast..

Home 3W 4L
Away 2W 4L

Freo

Home 3W 2L
Away 1W 4L

GWS..

Home 0W 5L
Away 3W 3L

Bit of a trend emerging

The trend I can see is you cherry picking very small sample sizes that confim your bias and then trying to extrapolate them to whacky theories.

 

[Munich]

The most mind-blowing for me was when I said that if Hawthorn/Norf are to host games in Tassie, then every club should have to play them there, not just a select group of non-Vic clubs (including the two that already travel the most) and I saw that perfectly reasonable suggestion shouted down by our magpie friends.

I know there have been some dumb arguments on both sides (for example, I agree with the Vics that the Doggies should 100% play their home finals at Marvel, same with Geelong at Kardinya), but man. The Tassie thing was when I knew this was not the thread for "genuine discussion"

Geelong play games in Tassie.

 

[Carringbush2010]

so you agree that the AFL is a boy’s club. Good old mates at the top from all the right vic independent schools handing out jobs for the boys and pulling strings to get the outcome they want. BUT lucky for us they just happen to be walking paragons of fairness when it comes to the way clubs are treated. Sure mate.

If it was unfair for non vic teams then the landscape would look like ridiculous fines for interstate teams, extreme leniency for Victorian players at the tribunal, Victorian teams umpires to premiership glory, etc.
Oh wait..

Conspiracy!

 

[ElectricG]

Conspiracy!

Look CB just call it whatever you want.