Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021
- Thread starter Magpie45
- Start date
- Tagged users None
But it's not a myth. It's a fact of the national rollout. Are you honestly insinuating that the same proportion of vaccine has been delivered to Vic and NSW proportionate to population at this point in time?
Taylor
Community Leader
- Moderator
- #6,928
Yes, seriously.
Unless we are going to chase the dragon like socialism cheerleaders where "if only we did it my way it would have worked" we have to accept that the measures Victoria took against delta were far stricter than NSW and prior to the recent few weeks NSW was smashed for not going hard enough. Well Victoria went hard enough and it still didn't work.
I think there are two choices here, either choose to think that delta isn't able to be contained absolving the government of responsibility or that the government of Victoria failed to deliver adequate measures to contain it.
Given how the hotel quarantine was managed...
Lesson is to not expect governments to work.
Taylor
Community Leader
- Moderator
- #6,929
Pfizer has definitely been disproportionately rolled out to areas of greater need across the nation.
This is where you bring up school children getting the vaccine.
Or, not anymore because now school children are a required group to be vaccinated.
Victoria should be petitioning for added capacity now they are the national hotspot for Covid again.
A few things within the government's control, a few things outside it
Within control
Vaccine distribution at state centres - could've been redirected to hotspots, which would give them a higher vaccination rate - the LGAs with the highest case rates ended up most vaccinated in NSW, while the opposite occurred.
Severity of initial lockdown - there's an argument a stricter lockdown initially could've curtailed it. Certainly a curfew from the start would've prevented some of the superspreading events. There's also an argument the strictness of the lockdown has worn everyone down, so compliance went through the floor, so maybe a less strict lockdown would've served us better in the long run.
Border controls
Sort of in control
Lockdown fatigue - this started as the third lockdown in quick succession. Tighter border controls could've prevented the second one, the first one harder to prevent but possibly could've been squashed more quickly with a quicker lockdown - we waited a couple of days after it was found that it was linked to the man from Adelaide, if we'd locked down at that point a couple of super spreading events could've been prevented IIRC.
Outside control
Climactic factors - we know the virus spreads faster in colder climates
Dickhead protesters - spike in Reff occurred after the last big protest, looks like its happening again
Constant embers from over the border - I believe it was pretty well under control until the Shepparton outbreak occurred. Cases were mostly linked and increasingly isolating. The tail may've ended up proving stubborn like it is in NZ and ACT, but it certainly wasn't looking like exploding. Then the Shepparton outbreak occurred and resources had to be dedicated to there. I think that caused control to be lost in Melbourne. To my knowledge a source was never found for the Shepparton outbreak but there's a very good chance it came from NSW as it wasn't genomically linked to anything in Melbourne.
As for how they survive, the Victorian Liberal Party is absolutely woeful.
I'd add a few things here.
So the vaccination rates in LGAs have in some instances been targeted and lifted. Hume for example in the last week has had a massive increase in vaccination as it's the epicenter of cases at the moment.
Absolutely lockdown fatigue and just dumb luck plays a part. Queensland has managed a few delta outbreaks with similar policy settings to Victoria, but ultimately there's an element of luck of the draw in respect of the individual infections, their movement and actions.
In respect of why the Govt will be fine, the principal reason is because the alternative at the moment are an absolute shambles. Cannot hold the Govt effectively to account or for that matter paint a consistent narrative for an alternative pathway. They'll take seats back next year, but they won't be in a position to govern for at least another term or possibly two.
What a strange way to look at things.
It's very simple what happened.
Delta is hard to contain, and the only way is to lock down hard. We didn't do that.
Perth have done it. Tassie has done it. SA has done it. So to say it can't be done, it's simply incorrect. Factually incorrect.
We had piss ups in Swan St, street parties in Northcote, 70% of building sites not meeting COVID safe standards, house parties and parks full of people here. As I posted on here after I went for a walk one Saturday Arvo and saw how many people were out and about and hanging out with friends - there was no way we were getting case numbers down.
Ditto NSW. They didn't lock down hard either.
The reason being is that people had had a gutfull. People in Vic simply refused to comply.
And as frustrating as it is, I don't really blame or begrudge them this time around. Especially those that are vax'd. I mean. You're fully vax'd with no symptoms, why not have a couple of other fully vax'd people over who also have no symptoms??
This all stems back to a couple of things, and I'm shocked that it's even being debated to honest.
1) We're in a pandemic. There's a deadly virus going around that is highly contagious that humans don't have immunity against.
2) We let the virus in here. Given 1) above, the first time this can be forgiven.
3) We let it in repeatedly.
4) We used ****ing hotels in big cities to quarantine people, and ****ed this up beyond belief.
5) Thank **** for Lockdowns. Imagine what numbers would look like without them?
6) In terms of the Vic government, it's unforgivable to **** up quarantine like they did the first time. That is why we couldn't get on top of this outbreak - cause people couldn't cope with doing it again.
7) In terms of a government surviving this, we need to remember that the Vic Liberals wanted to 'open up and live with it' all along. And that was before vaccinations FFS!!!
Given there's 1400 cases a day with lockdown in place, and with 50%or whatever of people vax'd, WTF does 'living with it' look like now???
Uptake is one element of it. Supply and rollout have been a shambles. Confidence was largely impacted by both messaging in the medical community and the Commonwealth Government's inability to clearly articulate the benefits of vaccination and the paucity of the risks at the initial stage. That and widespread complacency. We all thought we were COVID free and had time.
I mean in all seriousness the idea that over 60s 'have a choice' is just ridiculous when half the eligible population (including children) do not. I for one got AZ (and I am under 60) and took the (completely minimal and very reasonable) risk. I hope my mRNA vaccine went to a 12-18 year old as opposed to some crusty boomer.
The plan isn't about risk to you, it's about risk to the community.
Sttew
Brownlow Medallist
No. I'm saying allocation rates have varied in both states according to need and population.
NSW has 31.8% of Australia's population. VIC has 25.5%. This has to be considered when looking at vaccine allocations.
Secondly, until July VIC was receiving proportionally more vaccines than NSW and other states (28.4% of the nation's total allocation). I don't hear you say anything about that??
Once Delta strain took hold of NSW its share of vaccines increased with the tacit approval of Dan Andrews (33.5% of the country's allocation).
Now that infection numbers are on the increase in VIC, it has received a proportionally higher allocation of vaccines than NSW.
It's swings and roundabouts. But of course the Labor nuffies like to claim underhanded deals have seen NSW receive doses it was not entitled to and poor VIC was left in the dark
New figures show vaccine distribution
New figures have revealed exactly which states and territories are receiving more than their fair share of Pfizer and other mRNA vaccines.
www.news.com.au
Taylor
Community Leader
- Moderator
- #6,941
Let's not minimise the work done for vaccine hesitancy by the QLD government particularly with their work against AZ, which we were setup to produce locally and now people don't want to get.
It was politically convenient for the states to blame the federal government for not having access to all the vaccines at once, but I'll let you in on the secret future plan.
The federal government set up the plan for ending lockdowns, that national roadmap, so that when the vaccine targets are met the only reason the states will have to not open up will be to admit their health systems can't handle it.
It's all political posturing.
Lockdowns have failed because of the general apathy towards compliance which has visibly seen people blatantly ignoring restrictions, DH protesters and many not giving two $hits re wearing masks and engaging in COVID Safe practices. Are people now going to be too frightened to not comply? Doubt it. Is there a reasonable deterrent? Skeptical because there’s fk all police presence (and no blame on them because wtf are they supposed to do) and people clearly - given the mad numbers - running the gauntlet.
then the argument of ensuring high vax rates. Well, again, is this going to drive people to get vaccinated? Perhaps - but wtf has been the delay to now. If there’s a surge in bookings then we face supply issues but that’s a different story.
So now we can either push towards mass vaccination rates and acknowledge that we aren’t going to contain this until people actually DO the right thing. Or they can continue lockdowns and I’m banking on more protests which will end up as super spreading events anyway.
it’s a complete cluster fk.
- Aug 9, 2001
- 6,837
- 8,988
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Box Hill, Northcote Junior Football Club
No argument there.
- Aug 9, 2001
- 6,837
- 8,988
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
- Other Teams
- Box Hill, Northcote Junior Football Club
So will I. All that's happening now is what will happen when we open up at 70%. The burn through the unvaccinated has just started a little early.
I don't disagree with any of that....but isn't that exactly what we're doing?
Aren't we on a roadmap that revolves around Vax numbers? It also involves high case numbers and deaths, but we all know that.
That's why I'm surprised people are wigging out about case numbers.
I sense though the apprehension comes with the possibility of a backflip or a shifting of the goalposts. It wouldn't be the first time promises or expectations have been dashed due to spikes. Not sure how this fits with their modelling. At the end of the day, if the road map stays as is, then yeah, I don't see any surprises with high numbers for reasons already mentioned.
- Apr 23, 2016
- 35,370
- 50,966
- AFL Club
- Essendon
You seem to have some ideological blinkers on there. Good for you but I won’t waste time pointing out things like the accreditation rates for the GP rollout because you’ll likely just frame it as some sort of Labor attack (which ironically enough doesn’t represent my political views).No. I'm saying allocation rates have varied in both states according to need and population.
NSW has 31.8% of Australia's population. VIC has 25.5%. This has to be considered when looking at vaccine allocations.
Secondly, until July VIC was receiving proportionally more vaccines than NSW and other states (28.4% of the nation's total allocation). I don't hear you say anything about that??
Once Delta strain took hold of NSW its share of vaccines increased with the tacit approval of Dan Andrews (33.5% of the country's allocation).
Now that infection numbers are on the increase in VIC, it has received a proportionally higher allocation of vaccines than NSW.
It's swings and roundabouts. But of course the Labor nuffies like to claim underhanded deals have seen NSW receive doses it was not entitled to and poor VIC was left in the dark
New figures show vaccine distribution
New figures have revealed exactly which states and territories are receiving more than their fair share of Pfizer and other mRNA vaccines.
Also ‘swings and roundabouts’ don’t work when there’s a clearly delineated need in the here and now. Next you’ll be telling me that there was never anything wrong with supply and that we were at the front of the queue
Andrew’s won’t go anywhere. The Labor left are in the ascendancy and they certainly won’t hand over to a right faction leader in the minority like Merlino. He’ll easily win the next election given the state of the LNP and then you can look forward to Allen being the successor prior to the next election. Hope by then someone has taken hold of the Libs and there’s new, coherent and structured leadership that can hold the government to account.
Sydney cases are falling rapidly despite loosening restrictions and lack of enforcement. We should all take a lot of comfort from this, it shows that the exponential claims fostered by 'anlaysts' and 'modelers' are completely off base. They were predicting 10,000 cases and 100,000 daily cases before the end of the year. Absolute lunatics and more example that we should open up faster and never go back. Every mud sucking, bottom feeding advisor or analyst who made a quick buck selling doomsday stories should be wrapped up for misleading and deceptive conduct.
