Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

[faible]

But would Australia be ahead of where it is today in terms of double vaccinations if the roll out had been quicker? I'd say knowing what we know has happened overseas and in WA, QLD and NZ, the answer is unlikely. Fact is we have made up lost ground.

So to be clear, if we'd had access to the vaccine supplies we had access to today, 6 months ago, when it was clear we needed to get more Pfizer. You think we'd be worse off in terms of vaccination rates?

Yeah, nah.

 

[theyellowsash]

But would Australia be ahead of where it is today in terms of double vaccinations if the roll out had been quicker? I'd say knowing what we know has happened overseas and in WA, QLD and NZ, the answer is unlikely. Fact is we have made up lost ground.

Let me just get this straight.

you're saying that delaying the vaccination plan to allow a second wave of infections (along with the lockdowns and deaths) because it would incentivise people to get vaccinated, was not only a deliberate plan but a good one?

 

[Sttew]

So to be clear, if we'd had access to the vaccine supplies we had access to today, 6 months ago, when it was clear we needed to get more Pfizer. You think we'd be worse off in terms of vaccination rates?

Yeah, nah.

All I am saying is that if we'd had the vaccines in plenty supply 6 months ago there is no guarantee Australians would have been vaccinated in their droves like we are seeing today. USA has stagnated in its take up. UK struggled to hit 70%.

When we finally got supplies there were plenty on this board saying it was fanciful to think we could hit 70% or 80% in 2021

You still haven't explained to me why take-up rates in NSW and VIC are so much higher than in WA and QLD???

 

[faible]

All I am saying is that if we'd had the vaccines in plenty supply 6 months ago there is no guarantee Australians would have been vaccinated in their droves like we are seeing today. USA has stagnated in its take up. UK struggled to hit 70%.

When we finally got supplies there were plenty on this board saying it was fanciful to think we could hit 70% or 80% in 2021

You still haven't explained to me why take-up rates in NSW and VIC are so much higher than in WA and QLD???

NSW & VIC have a clear time-pressure to get it ASAP, and are currently coercing people to get it.

That doesn't mean that given adequate access months ago, when it was clear we needed it, and the Federal Government could have done something about it, we would therefore be less vaccinated today than we currently we are.

It's an incredibly poor argument.

 

[Sttew]

Let me just get this straight.

you're saying that delaying the vaccination plan to allow a second wave of infections (along with the lockdowns and deaths) because it would incentivise people to get vaccinated, was not only a deliberate plan but a good one?

Simply a byproduct of the second wave.

A study completed in March 2021 suggested only 59% of Australians would definitely get the vaccine and 29% had low levels of hesitancy. I believe any low levels of hesitancy which manifested in people putting off being vaccinated was converted into vaccinations because of circumstances in NSW and VIC. And I further believe that if not for the delta strain vaccination rates in Australia would have been incredibly slow even if we had the doses.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and resistance: Correlates in a nationally representative longitudinal survey of the Australian population

Background High levels of vaccination coverage in populations will be required even with vaccines that have high levels of effectiveness to prevent and stop outbreaks of coronavirus. The World Health Organisation has suggested that governments take a proactive response to vaccine hesitancy...

journals.plos.org

 

[Sttew]

NSW & VIC have a clear time-pressure to get it ASAP, and are currently coercing people to get it.

That doesn't mean that given adequate access months ago, when it was clear we needed it, and the Federal Government could have done something about it, we would therefore be less vaccinated today than we currently we are.

It's an incredibly poor argument because I don't understand it and refuse to accept that there may be two sides to a story.

EFA

 

[faible]

EFA

Nope, editing my post doesn't make your argument any more sensible.

Your position is, that if the Federal Government hadn't failed at their job to actually acquire sufficient supply of vaccine, and we had adequate supply available 6 months ago when we should have had it, that we'd been less vaccinated today than we currently are.

Real 4D chess by ScoMo there.

 

[Sttew]

Nope, editing my post doesn't make your argument any more sensible.

Your position is, that if the Federal Government hadn't failed at their job to actually acquire sufficient supply of vaccine, and we had adequate supply available 6 months ago when we should have had it, that we'd been less vaccinated today than we currently are.

Real 4D chess by ScoMo there.

No. See you are putting your spin on it. I am saying that even if there had been adequate supply available 6 months ago, there is no guarantee we would be in a different position today in terms of double dose rates, i.e., 13 October 2021

 

[faible]

No. See you are putting your spin on it. I am saying that even if there had been adequate supply available 6 months ago, there is no guarantee we would be in a different position today in terms of double dose rates, i.e., 13 October 2021

So you're giving the Feds a pass for totally bungling the vaccine rollout then?

 

[theyellowsash]

Simply a byproduct of the second wave.

A study completed in March 2021 suggested only 59% of Australians would definitely get the vaccine and 29% had low levels of hesitancy. I believe any low levels of hesitancy which manifested in people putting off being vaccinated was converted into vaccinations because of circumstances in NSW and VIC. And I further believe that if not for the delta strain vaccination rates in Australia would have been incredibly slow even if we had the doses.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and resistance: Correlates in a nationally representative longitudinal survey of the Australian population

Background High levels of vaccination coverage in populations will be required even with vaccines that have high levels of effectiveness to prevent and stop outbreaks of coronavirus. The World Health Organisation has suggested that governments take a proactive response to vaccine hesitancy...

journals.plos.org

so are you arguing that the vaccine rollout was bungled by being done too slow, but this has had an unintended positive outcome of incentivising people to get vaccinated?

 

[Arctic fox]

Reading the Daily Mail 10 October, it states that under FOI Pfizer wanted $240 mill. upfront from the Government and would return 50% if it could not deliver or be made.
So I think that was the reason for the hesitancy of acquiring Pfizer early and going with Astra and not losing $120 mill.

 

[HTT]

Simply a byproduct of the second wave.

A study completed in March 2021 suggested only 59% of Australians would definitely get the vaccine and 29% had low levels of hesitancy. I believe any low levels of hesitancy which manifested in people putting off being vaccinated was converted into vaccinations because of circumstances in NSW and VIC. And I further believe that if not for the delta strain vaccination rates in Australia would have been incredibly slow even if we had the doses.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and resistance: Correlates in a nationally representative longitudinal survey of the Australian population

Background High levels of vaccination coverage in populations will be required even with vaccines that have high levels of effectiveness to prevent and stop outbreaks of coronavirus. The World Health Organisation has suggested that governments take a proactive response to vaccine hesitancy...

journals.plos.org

Agree the outbreak has driven vaccine uptake in the community
But we should've been at a much higher vaccination rate prior to the outbreak occurring. The lockdowns may not have have been needed, due to vaccines preventing early spread. Although given how poorly NSW were able to respond to the index case (a single limo driver transporting airline staff - that should be the most obvious risk for a leak to occur, absolutely no excuses), it seems likely at some point an outbreak would have gotten out of hand eventually. In that case the exact same thing we're seeing now would've happened, except from a much higher base, therefore taking much less time.
Either way, earlier vaccination would have lead to much less time in lockdown.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

What's worse?

A premier who walks away while under IBAC investigation to avoid the Office of Premier being undermined. Or a premier who goes from one controversy to another managing to avoid blame, and in the process, denies all responsibility for what is arguably the greatest political disaster in Australian history in terms of economic cost and deaths, when Blind Freddy and the Drover's Dog can see the said Premier was in it up to his eye balls?

Gladys may fail your sniff test, but the stench in Victoria is becoming overpowering

you are damn right about the hotel quarantine fiasco of 2020, it is quite bizarre that noone has their hand up for that in VicGov

So far only Mikakos has gone under the bus for that one

that was just woke/PC madness from Labour that they went for the Indigneous/disadvantaged-employing company instead of a company on the actual OK-list for that job.

VicPol no.1 blame though, as it was their refusal to be 'babysitters' (their words) which made getting in private security a neccessity.

That needs to never be forgotten. Our police force, that we pay with our tax, refused that job because it wasn't glamorous enough for them, and 1000 of us died as a result.

 

[Kangapirate]

I hardly know anyone that was keen to get vaccinated back in May when we were sitting pretty on Covid 0, I mean they weren’t ruling it out but I was hearing a lot of “maybe Xmas time or early 2022”. Delta and the lockdowns that resulted from it changed the game in NSW and Vic, that momentum grew when it started sinking in that you weren’t going anywhere of note without getting it done, and getting out of lockdown was tied to 70%-80%, then the mandate pretty much gave that final push where it went from no jab/no restaurant to no jab/ no food on the table if you lose your job.

we will absolutely get to 95%+ and end up with what will likely be the highest vaxx rate in the world, but a lot of arm twisting and coercion was needed to reach that let’s not kid ourselves.

 

[Sttew]

Who came up with the nonsensical idea of Melbourne retailers being allowed to open for trade at 70% double vaccination.....outdoors? It really highlights the Victoria v NSW roadmap differences.

As Block Arcade owner, Grant Cohen, put it, “It’s a comical suggestion. It’s not a great business plan to be relying on the natural elements to be running a business, particularly in Melbourne.”

What makes it even more stupid and punitive is that chemists, supermarkets, bottle shops and the like can trade normally.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

2200 today. Seems everytime there's even a glimmer that we may come out of this there's a spike.
Not a conspiracy theorist, but it's a bloody coincidence!

 

[theyellowsash]

so are you arguing that the vaccine rollout was bungled by being done too slow, but this has had an unintended positive outcome of incentivising people to get vaccinated?

crickets? Sttew can i take your refusal to answer as me having backed you into a corner on your logic?

 

[kaiserchief13]

2200 today. Seems everytime there's even a glimmer that we may come out of this there's a spike.
Not a conspiracy theorist, but it's a bloody coincidence!

How is it possible the numbers are so high when jab rates so high?

 

[dean33]

2200 today. Seems everytime there's even a glimmer that we may come out of this there's a spike.
Not a conspiracy theorist, but it's a bloody coincidence!

Don’t think it matters what the daily numbers are, the only numbers of concern are vax rates and those in hospitals. You’d think once we open up daily case numbers will be even higher. You’d hope once we got 80-90% that they even stop reporting daily case numbers.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

How is it possible the numbers are so high when jab rates so high?

You can still have the virus. It's the symptoms that are the issue.
There's such little info in the raw number that it raises questions.

We're they vaccinated/unvaccinated?
Symptomatic or asymptomatic?
We're they isolating/in the community?

The media is loving it

 

[Grechy]

Victoria is an absolute disgrace. I'm a proud Victorian, lived here my whole life. I've never seen this state in such a sad state and although we haven't been through a pandemic if there were a book on how to not handle one - Vic would have it covered.

 

[kaiserchief13]

You can still have the virus. It's the symptoms that are the issue.
There's such little info in the raw number that it raises questions.

We're they vaccinated/unvaccinated?
Symptomatic or asymptomatic?
We're they isolating/in the community?

The media is loving it

Why would people get tested if asymptomatic?

 

[Sttew]

crickets? Sttew can i take your refusal to answer as me having backed you into a corner on your logic?

Mate, I couldn't be ****ed playing your cat and mouse game and I can't believe you feel the need to play your little game.

I doubt - and experts have expressed doubt - that if we had not been hit for six by Delta we probably would not be aiming for 80% on 1 November in Melbourne, and that's because of natural hesitancy and complacency.

If we blame Morrison for the slow vaccination roll out, does it follow that Andrews is to blame for completely ****ing up Vitoria's health system? In March 2020 he announced a $1.3B spend on 4000 ICU beds. It never happened, despite Melbourne experiencing the catastrophic 2nd wave. He had 18 months to prepare for Delta etc. In fact he has had 11 years to get our system in shape (7 years as Premier and 4 as Health Minister). The crisis in our Health system is why we are in lockdown still and why our roadmap out is such a lame plan.

 

[Sttew]

How is it possible the numbers are so high when jab rates so high?

Look where the highest infection rates are occurring

 

[theyellowsash]

Why would people get tested if asymptomatic?

By being a contact with a confirmed case, for one among many reasons.

have you literally been asleep this past 2 years?