Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

[theyellowsash]

Mate, I couldn't be f’ed playing your cat and mouse game and I can't believe you feel the need to play your little game.

I doubt - and experts have expressed doubt - that if we had not been hit for six by Delta we probably would not be aiming for 80% on 1 November in Melbourne, and that's because of natural hesitancy and complacency.

If we blame Morrison for the slow vaccination roll out, does it follow that Andrews is to blame for completely ******* up Vitoria's health system? In March 2020 he announced a $1.3B spend on 4000 ICU beds. It never happened, despite Melbourne experiencing the catastrophic 2nd wave. He had 18 months to prepare for Delta etc. In fact he has had 11 years to get our system in shape (7 years as Premier and 4 as Health Minister). The crisis in our Health system is why we are in lockdown still and why our roadmap out is such a lame plan.

wow, the mental gymnastics to avoid any criticism of the way morrison bungled the vaccine rollout is staggering. are you a 16 year old russian girl or something?

 

[Great8]

Nobody does Covid like Victoria.
It will turn eventually and NSW is hopefully a guide to where Victoria will be in a few weeks. Will be interesting to see the difference with NSW opening up with around 400 cases compared to Victoria opening up with 2000 cases or whether Dan pulls in the reigns a touch. Surely must be some hesitancy in sending kids to school

 

[Sttew]

wow, the mental gymnastics to avoid any criticism of the way morrison bungled the vaccine rollout is staggering. are you a 16 year old russian girl or something?

I've answered your question but you completely avoid my question. ****ing hypocrite of the highest order

 

[adogsfan5]

Nobody does Covid like Victoria.
It will turn eventually and NSW is hopefully a guide to where Victoria will be in a few weeks. Will be interesting to see the difference with NSW opening up with around 400 cases compared to Victoria opening up with 2000 cases or whether Dan pulls in the reigns a touch. Surely must be some hesitancy in sending kids to school

Political suicide I reckon.

 

[theyellowsash]

I've answered your question but you completely avoid my question. ******* hypocrite of the highest order

you havent answered my question. i asked:

"you're saying that delaying the vaccination plan to allow a second wave of infections (along with the lockdowns and deaths) because it would incentivise people to get vaccinated, was not only a deliberate plan but a good one?"

You answered with some irrelevant link about vaccine hesitancy, without answering the question above.

i then asked:

"so are you arguing that the vaccine rollout was bungled by being done too slow, but this has had an unintended positive outcome of incentivising people to get vaccinated?"

and you answered with insults and an irrelevant rant about dan andrews.

i've criticised labors handling of the pandemic as well as the liberals. your political bias and inability to hear or utter a single breath against the liberal party and reverend scomo is on par with brad scotts commentary on the afl rules.

 

[juss]

Nobody does Covid like Victoria.
It will turn eventually and NSW is hopefully a guide to where Victoria will be in a few weeks. Will be interesting to see the difference with NSW opening up with around 400 cases compared to Victoria opening up with 2000 cases or whether Dan pulls in the reigns a touch. Surely must be some hesitancy in sending kids to school

Once the double dose vaccine number is reached, case numbers won't matter.

Lockdowns won't really be a thing in 6 months time, it will just be a disease we live with and treat/vaccinate like other diseases managed by immunisations.

The unvaccinated will be the ones living under some sort of restriction.

 

[HTT]

Nobody does Covid like Victoria.
It will turn eventually and NSW is hopefully a guide to where Victoria will be in a few weeks. Will be interesting to see the difference with NSW opening up with around 400 cases compared to Victoria opening up with 2000 cases or whether Dan pulls in the reigns a touch. Surely must be some hesitancy in sending kids to school

Vic roadmap is a lot more conservative than NSW. 70% double dose is a significant easing but we won't get a comparable easing to NSW until 80%.
I think it's important to compare everything to the modelling the roadmap was based on. At the moment we are doing slightly better the median prediction of the model on most metrics. The roadmap was written with significant reliance on that so if we're tracking closely to it, I doubt they'll make big changes to it.

 

[Sttew]

you havent answered my question. i asked:

"you're saying that delaying the vaccination plan to allow a second wave of infections (along with the lockdowns and deaths) because it would incentivise people to get vaccinated, was not only a deliberate plan but a good one?"

You answered with some irrelevant link about vaccine hesitancy, without answering the question above.

i then asked:

"so are you arguing that the vaccine rollout was bungled by being done too slow, but this has had an unintended positive outcome of incentivising people to get vaccinated?"

and you answered with insults and an irrelevant rant about dan andrews.

i've criticised labors handling of the pandemic as well as the liberals. your political bias and inability to hear or utter a single breath against the liberal party and reverend scomo is on par with brad scotts commentary on the afl rules.

I am on record as saying the Feds stuffed up the messaging and roll out.

I disagree that delaying the vaccination roll out was responsible for the Delta wave. It would have happened regardless. The slow roll out didn't help, but no way would Australia have been at the vaccination rate to withstand the Delta strain. And my reference to vaccine hesitancy is not irrelevant. If it was then you'd expect to see WA and QLD figures at the same level as NSW and VIC

And yes, the Delta strain gave people cause to go out and get vaccinated. In March 2021 only 59% of Australians said they were committed to getting vaccinated.

Now your turn to answer my question....

 

[theyellowsash]

Vic roadmap is a lot more conservative than NSW. 70% double dose is a significant easing but we won't get a comparable easing to NSW until 80%.
I think it's important to compare everything to the modelling the roadmap was based on. At the moment we are doing slightly better the median prediction of the model on most metrics. The roadmap was written with significant reliance on that so if we're tracking closely to it, I doubt they'll make big changes to it.

nah, chairman mao dan wont want us to have any freedoms, comrade. disobey and he'll send us to the siberian mines adelaide.

 

[kaiserchief13]

By being a contact with a confirmed case, for one among many reasons.

have you literally been asleep this past 2 years?

I thought they weren't doing contact tracing anymore

 

[Mitchell Madness]

I thought they weren't doing contact tracing anymore

I've been tested twice as a contact of a contact. I didn't need to, but it was a precaution. I know at least 20 people who have done similar.
I know 5 people who went and got tested as a precaution as they were at a location before/after the time frame of exposure.

Just because you're a douche doesn't mean everyone is.

 

[theyellowsash]

I am on record as saying the Feds stuffed up the messaging and roll out.

I disagree that delaying the vaccination roll out was responsible for the Delta wave. It would have happened regardless. The slow roll out didn't help, but no way would Australia have been at the vaccination rate to withstand the Delta strain. And my reference to vaccine hesitancy is not irrelevant. If it was then you'd expect to see WA and QLD figures at the same level as NSW and VIC

And yes, the Delta strain gave people cause to go out and get vaccinated. In March 2021 only 59% of Australians said they were committed to getting vaccinated.

Now your turn to answer my question....

well at least youve actually answered that now.

yes, the hotel quarantine was a ridiculous ****up. relying on private security firms (or private business in general for any public service) is ****ing stupid and anyone could have seen corners would be cut and standards flagrantly breached. combine that with using hotels (whos airconditioning systems are designed to recirculate air through the building and rooms not designed to be airtight) to quarantine an airborne virus, and any half decent architect/engineer could have told you that was never going to work and was just going to spread the virus through the hotels. we were also far too lax in letting people in quarantine out for walks and catch taxis to appointments. and even as late as the delta wave, we were far too slow and lenient on shutting the border to nsw when it became obvious they werent taking it seriously like all the other states do.

as for the hospital system, by and large all states in australia (labor and liberal) have a good and well functioning health system the envy of many/most developed countries. i work in the health/construction industry, you dont need to tell me how incompetent the health department is in building infrastructure. it wouldnt surprise me at all if the money and direction was given 18 months ago and its been swirling around the incompetent beaurocracy and project managers for a year. ive got some shocking stories i could tell you of how the health department bungles minor projects, but i cant.

but also, 1800 icu beds is the equivalent to building 3 entire royal melbourne hospitals. i shouldnt need to tell you that cant happen within even 2 years. plus, all of the equipment comes from overseas, and at the moment we can't even get carpet from overseas.

 

[theyellowsash]

I thought they weren't doing contact tracing anymore

not contact tracing doesnt mean you dont need to get tested if youre a contact, theyre still publishing exposure sites theyre just not going as hard. many businesses (particularly health related) require you to show a negative test if an infected person has visited, or if youre a known contact.

 

[LeverPuller]

but also, 1800 icu beds is the equivalent to building 3 entire royal melbourne hospitals. i shouldnt need to tell you that cant happen within even 2 years. plus, all of the equipment comes from overseas, and at the moment we can't even get carpet from overseas.

That’s the point of government accountability though.

They promised 4000 beds. It’s in writing and on video. Rather than giving your response, saying supply and staffing challenges, why did Andrews need to lie and say he didn’t promise it?

People are pretty reasonable in a crisis and would understand if there were equipment shortages in a global pandemic.

But Andrews dodges accountability at every turn.

 

[Sttew]

That’s the point of government accountability though.

They promised 4000 beds. It’s in writing and on video. Rather than giving your response, saying supply and staffing challenges, why did Andrews need to lie and say he didn’t promise it?

People are pretty reasonable in a crisis and would understand if there were equipment shortages in a global pandemic.

But Andrews dodges accountability at every turn.

Or he could have said we didn't think it would be needed. By December 2020 the extra ICU beds weren't needed; we thought we'd beaten Covid. Victorians would have understood if he'd said that instead of gaslighting us, as he is so skilled at doing. So when the female journalist asked him on 26 September 2021 about the 4000 ICU beds promised on 1 April 2020 his response was to mock her and say:

“The notion that we’re going to have 4000 beds down at a warehouse somewhere, turn the Exhibition buildings into an ICU unit and then have a nurse at the foot of each of those beds practising hospital corners – no, that’s not how it works.”

Hello Dan, that is precisely how you said it would work

 

[theyellowsash]

That’s the point of government accountability though.

They promised 4000 beds. It’s in writing and on video. Rather than giving your response, saying supply and staffing challenges, why did Andrews need to lie and say he didn’t promise it?

People are pretty reasonable in a crisis and would understand if there were equipment shortages in a global pandemic.

But Andrews dodges accountability at every turn.

i have personal experience with the andrews government wasting millions to arbitrarily meet election promises. im not going to defend politicians making and breaking promises, but to pretend thats a dan andrews (or even labor/liberal) specific thing is just political bias.

 

[Sixpence]

People are pretty reasonable in a crisis.

Uh huh, yep, no toilet paper shortages for a respiratory virus here at all. Completely reasonable behaviour.

 

[Sttew]

i have personal experience with the andrews government wasting millions to arbitrarily meet election promises. im not going to defend politicians making and breaking promises, but to pretend thats a dan andrews (or even labor/liberal) specific thing is just political bias.

You're right, but the gaslighting is a Dan thing. How often does he say things that make you wonder if you've got it wrong, e.g., his evidence at the Coates Inquiry, the 4000 ICU beds, nebuliser man

 

[theyellowsash]

You're right, but the gaslighting is a Dan thing. How often does he say things that make you wonder if you've got it wrong, e.g., his evidence at the Coates Inquiry, the 4000 ICU beds, nebuliser man

Its really not an andrews specific thing. the feds for instance have done that constantly over the vaccine rollout cockup.

 

[JackFlash]

October 14th 2021:
Melbourne 2297 cases 82,762 test results. 61.5% fully vaccinated
Sydney 406 cases There were over 85,000 COVID-19 tests undertaken yesterday. The state is expected to hit the 80 percent double-dosed target over the weekend.

The pollies can waffle on all they want, but WTF is going on? There is a huge difference between NSW and Victoria.

Even if we are let out of jail, who is going to feel comfortable traveling around? Something decidedly wrong with Victoria?

 

[LeverPuller]

Uh huh, yep, no toilet paper shortages for a respiratory virus here at all. Completely reasonable behaviour.

I meant in judgement of government. It’s why the JobKeeper stuff isn’t really a story - people are smart enough to understand that it was developed quickly.

In government, if something has to be done quickly there are always loopholes which people or organisations exploit.

It’s why we have seen every state government re-elected so far. Yes there may have been flaws but overall people appreciate how well government has managed COVID.

 

[Sttew]

Its really not an andrews specific thing. the feds for instance have done that constantly over the vaccine rollout cockup.

Morrison did apologise on 21 July though. Has Dan ever apologised?

 

[LeverPuller]

October 14th 2021:
Melbourne 2297 cases 82,762 test results. 61.5% fully vaccinated
Sydney 406 cases There were over 85,000 COVID-19 tests undertaken yesterday. The state is expected to hit the 80 percent double-dosed target over the weekend.

The pollies can waffle on all they want, but WTF is going on? There is a huge difference between NSW and Victoria.

Even if we are let out of jail, who is going to feel comfortable traveling around? Something decidedly wrong with Victoria?

The big difference in my opinion is the perception of trust of the population by government.

NSW have said and are saying that this is tough but we trust people to do the right thing and will punish those who don’t.

Whereas Vic are saying we don’t trust any of you so we are punishing all of you.

One brings compliance and support because people can act with their own judgement with boundaries, while the other brings mistrust because people are having their own judgement taken away.

It’s not just about rhetoric, it’s about behaviour, and the NSW Government have consistently done what they said, while the Victorian Government hasn’t.

 

[theyellowsash]

Morrison did apologise on 21 July though. Has Dan ever apologised?

Daniel Andrews apologises for botched hotel quarantine program in Victoria

Report finds no one person was responsible for engaging private security, but premier regrets he didn’t use police

www.theguardian.com

“I want to apologise to the Victorian community for the very clear errors that were made in this program,” he said.

and morrison may have apologised for the rollout being slow, but he also gaslit the media making claims that he 'never said' things which were easily exposed as blatant lies.

every politician on both sides makes/breaks promises and lies, and gaslights people claiming 'i never said...'. to pretend is a labor or andrews specific thing is just blatant political bias.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

October 14th 2021:
Melbourne 2297 cases 82,762 test results. 61.5% fully vaccinated
Sydney 406 cases There were over 85,000 COVID-19 tests undertaken yesterday. The state is expected to hit the 80 percent double-dosed target over the weekend.

The pollies can waffle on all they want, but WTF is going on? There is a huge difference between NSW and Victoria.

Even if we are let out of jail, who is going to feel comfortable traveling around? Something decidedly wrong with Victoria?

At 60% double vaccination, NSW had hit their peak (or were just coming off it). So here in Victoria, if you look at the five and seven day averages, it appears we've flattened in terms of cases. Todays big numbers were off the highest testing numbers for a while which makes me think there's been under-reporting over the past few days, which correlates with lower testing numbers. So hopefully, the numbers start to follow the same pattern at NSW because it was at this point that they started to trend down.

One to remember too, although we're at 61.5% that doesn't mean each area in Victoria has the same coverage. The biggest increases yesterday were in the South-East, Western and Middle North (Lalor, Thomastown, Reservoir, Preston) - areas with lower vaccination rates. Greater Dandenong has the lowest double vaxx rates (outside of the CBD which is going to skew due to a much younger cohort). Meanwhile, the outer north which was going gangbusters in terms of numbers, is now trending down as vaccination rates climb.

I'm double-vaxxed but fully expect to get COVID at some stage. It's going to happen. I'm hoping to get straight to the pub as soon it opens.