Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

[Kangapirate]

Sydney had its reff number drop below 1 in early September, and cases peaked well over a month ago, so essentially they had 4-6 weeks of the remaining lockdown to drive numbers down.

Our peak is going to coincide with our reopening, so we obviously wont be applying a similar level of downward pressure on numbers.

The biggest bummer is we’ve allowed it to take off in the south-east, so the gains we’ve made in the North and West have been almost cancelled out.

 

[theyellowsash]

I get that. However, bar NSW no other state has experienced high infection or death rates. Has Victoria just been unlucky?

Partially yes. no doubt mistakes were made but luck is also a big big part of it. thats a widely accepted fact by epidemiologists, and we are simply putting in measures to reduce the chance of bad luck and control the outbreak when it happens.

But in the delta outbreak NSW has actually fared far worse. total deaths has vic clearly ahead, but 820 of the 950 were before the delta outbreak, so has only suffered 130 deaths from delta. in comparison to nsw, 460 of the 512 deaths are due to the delta outbreak. ie nsw has had nearly 4 times the deaths in the last 4-5 months through the delta outbreak. the deaths in the first wave have to be put in the context that the entire world (not just us) was still learning about how covid was transmitted and how to prevent and treat it at that point, so deaths were always going to be higher. at the end of that period we were being lauded the world over for limiting deaths to the hundreds instead of tens or hundreds of thousands. since last year, nsw is the clear outlier.

case numbers increasing at this point arent such a concern, due to the vaccination rates. the numbers look bad but the transmission rate is going down, so the higher numbers are simply a product of more people gathering (because we've opened up for outdoor gatherings). and no doubt, a lot of people gathering when they shouldnt (ie theyre pretending that theyre single/double vaxed). We're also 15% behind in terms of being fully vaccinated (because nsw was favoured in the rollout by the feds), so case numbers will likely decline in line with nsw when we catch up.

the fact that the case numbers are within the projections for the roadmap, and the gov arent talking about pushing back restrictions (in fact theres talk of possibly opening earlier) says to me that the current case numbers are deliberate (in the sense that theyre expected as part of the long term plan). also, icu numbers arent jumping in tandem with case numbers, which at this point is the more important number.

on a side note, i do like how during nsw's worst period this year people were all proclaiming the excuse of "because people are vaccinated dont look at case numbers look at hospitalisation deaths" to defend gladys's handling of it. but now that its back onto dan and the labor party its all "look at the case numbers" again even though vaccination is even higher ands deaths are lower. not saying thats you, just a general comment.

 

[theyellowsash]

Because Dan Andrews is going a great job. Isn’t that obvious?

nsw delta deaths: 460
vic delta deaths: 130

 

[theyellowsash]

Sydney had its reff number drop below 1 in early September, and cases peaked well over a month ago, so essentially they had 4-6 weeks of the remaining lockdown to drive numbers down.

Our peak is going to coincide with our reopening, so we obviously wont be applying a similar level of downward pressure on numbers.

The biggest bummer is we’ve allowed it to take off in the south-east, so the gains we’ve made in the North and West have been almost cancelled out.

our transmission rate is going down and is nearly to 1 now. i think it was 1.02 a couple days ago, so maybe under 1 now.

 

[Kangapirate]

our transmission rate is going down and is nearly to 1 now. i think it was 1.02 a couple days ago, so maybe under 1 now.

It’s 1.12 now

 

[theyellowsash]

It’s 1.12 now

where do you find the data? on that one im just remembering what ive seen in the news so unlike pretty much every other stat its hard to follow.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Why has Melbourne had more Covid outbreaks, and longer lockdowns than anywhere else in Australia?

They ****ed up hotel quarantine first.

this time around, barely anyone has been abiding by the current lockdown rules.

Our Vax levels haven't been high.


It's a no brainer. Why is that even being asked?

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Not sure of the relevance of this?

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Sydney had its reff number drop below 1 in early September, and cases peaked well over a month ago, so essentially they had 4-6 weeks of the remaining lockdown to drive numbers down.

Our peak is going to coincide with our reopening, so we obviously wont be applying a similar level of downward pressure on numbers.

The biggest bummer is we’ve allowed it to take off in the south-east, so the gains we’ve made in the North and West have been almost cancelled out.

They tightened restrictions though didn't they, to actually drive down cases?

We've loosened restrictions.



I'm unsure why there's confusion, or even concern around case numbers.

We all know that there'll be shit loads of cases, sick people and deaths. That's just what 'living with the virus' looks like.

 

[JackFlash]

Why is it wrong?

We're barely locked down. We're only 60 something % vax'd.

We're in a pandemic.

What's the issue?

We always knew there'd be lots of cases. There'll be lots more once we fully open up too.

Why is it wrong? Are you kidding me? Barely locked down? I haven't been anywhere for months, business ruined, mentally drained and yet i watch NSW do a helluva better job than this horrible state. If you don't know the Victorian issue then god helps us all...Why are we just 60% vaccinated? I've been double jabbed for months, NSW cases are coming down and Victoria is rising and they do more tests? Something is wrong alright...

 

[Sixpence]

Why is it wrong? Are you kidding me? Barely locked down? I haven't been anywhere for months, business ruined, mentally drained and yet i watch NSW do a helluva better job than this horrible state. If you don't know the Victorian issue then god helps us all...Why are we just 60% vaccinated? I've been double jabbed for months, NSW cases are coming down and Victoria is rising and they do more tests? Something is wrong alright...

The grass is always greener ... it wasn't that long ago we were looking at NSW thinking how ****ed they were.

Why are we just 60% vaccinated? Why do you think? It's great that you're double vaxxed, but the bulk of under 40s are only just getting their second jabs now as we weren't able to get it any sooner. The reason for that, and why NSW is so far ahead, is that they had preferential treatment from the Fed Gov and were given subtantially more supply of vaccines. You can't vaccinate people if you don't have the supply.

The higher case numbers are due to the complacency of Victiorians and not giving as much of a **** as they should. We've been the most locked down city in the world, and rather than put in the hard yards until the vax rates are up, too many have gone off and done their own thing.

Overall, I think Dan and Gladys have done a reasonable job in an extremely tough circumstance. Everyone's a pandemic expert who think they can do a better job, but they're basically damned if they do and damned if they don't. It's an unwinnable position. It's also no surprise that the heavy breakouts have occured in the 2 most densely populated cities.

 

[Sttew]

They f’ed up hotel quarantine first.

this time around, barely anyone has been abiding by the current lockdown rules.

Our Vax levels haven't been high.


It's a no brainer. Why is that even being asked?

Good question.. I only asked because I have seen some fairly lame theories on this forum from posters who I won't name, e.g., "Melbourne's weather" or "Melburnians are less compliant than people in other cities"

 

[Sixpence]

The grass is always greener ... it wasn't that long ago we were looking at NSW thinking how f’ed they were.

Why are we just 60% vaccinated? Why do you think? It's great that you're double vaxxed, but the bulk of under 40s are only just getting their second jabs now as we weren't able to get it any sooner. The reason for that, and why NSW is so far ahead, is that they had preferential treatment from the Fed Gov and were given subtantially more supply of vaccines. You can't vaccinate people if you don't have the supply.

The higher case numbers are due to the complacency of Victiorians and not giving as much of a fu** as they should. We've been the most locked down city in the world, and rather than put in the hard yards until the vax rates are up, too many have gone off and done their own thing.

Overall, I think Dan and Gladys have done a reasonable job in an extremely tough circumstance. Everyone's a pandemic expert who think they can do a better job, but they're basically damned if they do and damned if they don't. It's an unwinnable position. It's also no surprise that the heavy breakouts have occured in the 2 most densely populated cities.

JackFlash Just to add to the above on the 60% vax rate, this time next week we'll hit 90% first dose and 70% second dose. In under 3 weeks, we'll have 80% fully vaxxed. We're a couple of weeks behind NSW, but we're catching up. Hang in there, we're close!

 

[theyellowsash]

Not sure of the relevance of this?

there is none

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Why is it wrong? Are you kidding me? Barely locked down? I haven't been anywhere for months, business ruined, mentally drained and yet i watch NSW do a helluva better job than this horrible state. If you don't know the Victorian issue then god helps us all...Why are we just 60% vaccinated? I've been double jabbed for months, NSW cases are coming down and Victoria is rising and they do more tests? Something is wrong alright...

What's the issue with high case numbers?

Lockdown isn't about case numbers.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Not sure of the relevance of this?

Of course you're not sure, doesn't money just magically appear in my account from the government. What's work, what's a 'small business'?

 

[theyellowsash]

Of course you're not sure, doesn't money just magically appear in my account from the government. What's work, what's a 'small business'?

ah yes, the 'if you support lockdowns youre just a dole bludger' argument.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Barely locked down? I haven't been anywhere for months...

Not sure where you live, but where I am there are people having house parties, streets are busy with cafes heaving, street food is happening, and parks are deadset packed.

This has been happening since very early in this lockdown.

This has been as lockdown 'lite' as you can get.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Of course you're not sure, doesn't money just magically appear in my account from the government. What's work, what's a 'small business'?

So Victoria's current case numbers are relevant to that how??

 

[theyellowsash]

Why is it wrong? Are you kidding me? Barely locked down? I haven't been anywhere for months, business ruined, mentally drained and yet i watch NSW do a helluva better job than this horrible state. If you don't know the Victorian issue then god helps us all...Why are we just 60% vaccinated? I've been double jabbed for months, NSW cases are coming down and Victoria is rising and they do more tests? Something is wrong alright...

NSW delta deaths: 430
VIC delta deaths: 130

yeah, heaps better

 

[FlowersByIrene]

ah yes, the 'if you support lockdowns youre just a dole bludger' argument.

Well if you support lockdowns you're either actually bankrupt (and on government handouts) or you're morally bankrupt. Pick you poison.

 

[staffonly]

Great news that if your from NSW you can travel anywhere into Victoria and stay for a holiday. You must however not go outside a 25km radius.

A Victorian however cannot go anywhere outside there 25km. What the **** even is this shit.

 

[Gruffles]

Well if you support lockdowns you're either actually bankrupt (and on government handouts) or you're morally bankrupt. Pick you poison.

I'm sure there are other possibilities outside of the false dichotomy that you have posted.

 

[Sttew]

Lockdown isn't about case numbers.

What’s lockdown about then?

 

[The 747]

What’s lockdown about then?

It is about the lizard government enforcing compliance on behalf of the New World Order and the Great Socialist Reset. Apparently.