I posted this on the footyalmanac.com.au site tonight. It's a great sports forum but still Melbourne-centric:
It’s a handy time to write Adelaide off for season 2013.
They’ve lost their 2012 forward structure in the first five rounds. Taylor Walker (63 goals last year, knee reconstruction, out for the year) and Kurt Tippett (39 goals, to Sydney) are completely out of the equation.
Some of the next best – Ian Callinan (39 goals last year), Jason Porplyzia (30 goals), Graham Johncock (19 goals) and Bernie Vince (18 goals) – have all been dropped in the first five rounds for being out of form.
Only Patrick Dangerfield (23 goals last year) and Rory Sloane (19 goals) are holding up their hands.
Adelaide are skinny in the ruck – without Tippett, Sam Jacobs has to work too hard.
Adelaide are slow in defence. Last year was all about the coach; this year it is all about the players and, right now, they are not good enough. They are a mess.
Thus, it’s time to write the Cow-Crows off for season 2013.
But wait a minute!
Brenton Sanderson has to restructure his forwards. He is not an idiot and he has many options. Last week, when Walker went down in the first quarter, he threw Andy Otten into attack. He kicked three. Sanderson can stick with Otten or pick another defender for the role – Brent Reilly, maybe, or even Ben Rutten who kicked three goals with his first three kicks in the AFL. He needs two big talls in the forward zone. He has Josh Jenkins who is getting better in every game and Shaun McKernan who has been languishing in the twos. Sanderson also needs competent crumbers and Adelaide has plenty of them – Jared Petrenko, Jason Porplyzia, Richard Douglas, Matthew Wright, Rory Sl0ane, Scott Thompson, and Patrick Dangerfield can float into the forward zone at any time in any game.
Adelaide can kick goals out of its backside.
Sanderson can work that out.
Adelaide are 2-3 after playing Essendon, Brisbane, Port, the Bulldogs and Carlton.
In May, they face Hawthorn, the Giants, St Kilda and North Melbourne and could win three of those to be 5-4 by the end of the month… but, according to the doomsayers, they will still be in trouble.
In the next month, they face Freo, Sydney, Richmond and Gold Coast. Let’s say they win three of those and are 8-5 by the end of June and are still looking shaky.
In July, it’s a hard month with West Coast, Collingwood, Geelong, and Fremantle again. They would want to win two of those to be 10-7 and still under the guard of anyone who knows anything about football.
August is the meanest month against Port, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne and West Coast. They won’t win more than five of those and could finish up at 15-7, which will be more than enough to win a home final.
Reverse your bets, Melbourne punters. Go against the current market!
Many claim that Adelaide had a soft draw last year, which enabled them to finish second at the end of the minor rounds without deserving to be there. They forget that Adelaide went down to Hawthorn by one kick in the prelim.
Adelaide-haters will not be happy when they realise that this year’s draw is no harder. Adelaide only play the current pace-setters once this year. And Port is not a pacesetter. Port is building a beautiful bubble but they are yet to play anyone with a pin.
In this season, Adelaide’s five double-up teams are Fremantle, Port, North Melbourne, West Coast and Western Bulldogs mainly because the AFL likes the non-Victorian teams playing against each other to maximise the Victorian teams’ opportunity to boost the TV ratings. As a South Australian, I don’t argue with that. We joined your comp; you didn’t join ours.
I’m pleased that Adelaide plays Port, Freo, West Coast and the Bulldogs twice this year.
North Melbourne scare me a bit. I think they might be a smoky in 2013.
But, right now, if you bet against Adelaide making the top eight, caveat emptor.
And be wary about betting against them for a top four spot, too.
Midfield needs to extract digit in a big way starting this Saturday.
