Prediction Could we go 0-10 ??

[1970crow]

I agree it looks slim pickings but the way freo are playing and that melbourne beat the power over here a week earlier and Geelong being 3-0, have we underestimated how hard our draw has been so far? Not taking away that we might keep struggling from here but maybe we just don't have the cattle still as all those sides look good.

I've been posting this weekly. There's no doubt 3 of those sides were competing with us for the spots underneath the top 4-5 and well above the bottom 3. Melbourne obviously a top 5 contender. So the losses, individually, are probably not bad form line, noting it's still early. Problem is that if we are getting beaten regularly by those we're competing with, we keep sliding closer and closer to the bottom of our group. Essendon game will tell us a bit, I don't think they're good enough to make the 8 like Suns, Freo and Cats, so a loss to them at home will likely be a very poor outcome.

 

[Carn The Texan]

I've been posting this weekly. There's no doubt 3 of those sides were competing with us for the spots underneath the top 4-5 and well above the bottom 3. Melbourne obviously a top 5 contender. So the losses, individually, are probably not bad form line, noting it's still early. Problem is that if we are getting beaten regularly by those we're competing with, we keep sliding closer and closer to the bottom of our group. Essendon game will tell us a bit, I don't think they're good enough to make the 8 like Suns, Freo and Cats, so a loss to them at home will likely be a very poor outcome.

Disastrous to keep losing 8 point games. How very 2023 of us.

 

[skam85]

Waited til we are 0-4 to return after going missing for years.

Your timing is impeccable as usual.

Your posting is about as enjoyable & insightful as listening to Jobe Watson.

Marty was right all along though.

 

[GROTTO]

Hopefully this thread wont last long and we get a win on the board.

R4 - Melbourne - strong oppo - cant see a win
R5 - Carlton - playing out of their skins, cant see a win
R6 - Essendon - 50/50 at best - they're playing reasonable footy
R7 - North - in reality, should be a win, but in Hobart where we have always struggled
R8 - Port - can see them entering this game 5-2, they should win comfortably on current form
R9 - Brisbane - its in Adelaide where Brisbane have an ordinary record, but you'd think they would be hard to beat
R10 - Collingwood - enough said
R11 - West Coast - maybe some respite

I was the first to call it on here that we could be 0-10.

We will likely fall somewhere between 0-10 and 2-8.

Will be a fascinating watch of the AFC how they try and sweep this under the rug.

If we are 0-10 lets hope the Eagles can beat us, it should hopefully lead to the sacking of Nicks.

 

[Sanders]

we’re not going 0-10

I can however see 3-7 which is still a disaster

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Surely we will be the first team in the history of the AFL/VFL to go 0-23.

We should forfeit all of our away games so we are well rested for the home games.

 

[Bevoman]

Surely we will be the first team in the history of the AFL/VFL to go 0-23.

We should forfeit all of our away games so we are well rested for the home games.

Tanks a lot

 

[Brett Cummings]

Hopefully we get belted this week and then we get a poor crowd next friday. Get rid of this peasant kinkkey assistant.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Tanks a lot

Thank you Bevoman, I am so envious of OneClub. You shouldn’t waste your time posting on our Board, you should be booking your Grand Final accomodation.

What a super start to the year, smacking the 18th and 11th team from 2023 at home PLUS a huge away win against the 2023 13th team. You were also very unlucky to lose to the StraightSet Demons at home but I am expecting another HUGE home win against last year’s 15th team.

I trust your membership provides access to Grand Final tickets, so if I were you I would be hopping on to the Virgin website before the prices go through the roof.

 

[George Kramer]

Surely we will be the first team in the history of the AFL/VFL to go 0-23.

We should forfeit all of our away games so we are well rested for the home games.

How many of our first 10 do you think we will win?

 

[footy4ever]

I've been posting this weekly. There's no doubt 3 of those sides were competing with us for the spots underneath the top 4-5 and well above the bottom 3. Melbourne obviously a top 5 contender. So the losses, individually, are probably not bad form line, noting it's still early. Problem is that if we are getting beaten regularly by those we're competing with, we keep sliding closer and closer to the bottom of our group. Essendon game will tell us a bit, I don't think they're good enough to make the 8 like Suns, Freo and Cats, so a loss to them at home will likely be a very poor outcome.

After we've lost a close one to Carlton, patted ourselves on the back for the good effort, and then, because finally we get a very beatable team at home, go in expecting to win, but of course you guessed it, Essendon play their annual out-of-their-skin game, we shit the bed again and go 0-6, surely then Nicks is gone. Surely?

What a truly nasty fixture we've had while running on a cylinder short , and what a calamity to have signed Nicks when we did.


Who will be the interim coach after round 6? Burns? God/whoever help us.

 

[footy4ever]

Thank you Bevoman, I am so envious of OneClub. You shouldn’t waste your time posting on our Board, you should be booking your Grand Final accomodation.

What a super start to the year, smacking the 18th and 11th team from 2023 at home PLUS a huge away win against the 2023 13th team. You were also very unlucky to lose to the StraightSet Demons at home but I am expecting another HUGE home win against last year’s 15th team.

I trust your membership provides access to Grand Final tickets, so if I were you I would be hopping on to the Virgin website before the prices go through the roof.

It beggars belief the Fixture they've been gifted.

 

[George Kramer]

After we've lost a close one to Carlton, patted ourselves on the back for the good effort, and then, because finally we get a very beatable team at home, go in expecting to win, but of course you guessed it, Essendon play their annual out-of-their-skin game, we s**t the bed again and go 0-6, surely then Nicks is gone. Surely?

What a truly nasty fixture we've had while running on a cylinder short , and what a calamity to have signed Nicks when we did.


Who will be the interim coach after round 6? Burns? God/whoever help us.

That’s the thing, if we lose to Essendon and are 0-6, the noise will be out of control. The pressure is going to be massive and then we go play North in Tassie where they will be waiting thinking they’ve got their best chance for a win.

 

[Scorpus]

I think there are only two possible wins. All others in the first 10 would be a massive upset

Essendon at home is the most winnable. Essendon are trash and Scott is a poor coach

North away is doable but only because North have been quite bad

I think it's more likely we lose to North but fluke another win. So I'll say 2-8 from the first 10

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

How many games we win of our 1st 10 will have more to do with whether we change our game style more than who our opponents are.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

How many of our first 10 do you think we will win?

I will treat your question with respect.

Prior to the season I estimated that we would win 13 games. Based on last year (the only 23 game season in the AFL) I predicted that we would finish 6th. The bookies had us at equal 8th and the AFL “experts” also had us just inside or outside the Eight.

Rather than identifying which games we will win or lose, I give a win percentage for every match. Crows v Eagles at home is 90%, Crows v Geelong at the Cattery was 10%. Based on this system I predicted we would have 4.7 wins after 10 rounds so the response to your question is between 4 and 5 wins.


Obviously we will be below 5 wins after 10 games and highly likely to finish below 13 wins. Our draw isn’t horrible and it would be very good if we are a top four team. We are playing a higher percentage of lowish teams away and a higher percentage of stronger teams at home compared to last year. This means we have a lot of 60/40, 50/50 and 40/60 matches compared to last year. None of our first 5 matches were easy but all were winnable (compared to Collingwood at the MCG or Geelong at Geelong). Now that we have dug a very big hole it is quite possible we will fall apart.

However, I am an optimist so I think making the Eight is still more likely than going Owen 23.

 

[George Kramer]

I will treat your question with respect.

Prior to the season I estimated that we would win 13 games. Based on last year (the only 23 game season in the AFL) I predicted that we would finish 6th. The bookies had us at equal 8th and the AFL “experts” also had us just inside or outside the Eight.

Rather than identifying which games we will win or lose, I give a win percentage for every match. Crows v Eagles at home is 90%, Crows v Geelong at the Cattery was 10%. Based on this system I predicted we would have 4.7 wins after 10 rounds so the response to your question is between 4 and 5 wins.


Obviously we will be below 5 wins after 10 games and highly likely to finish below 13 wins. Our draw isn’t horrible and it would be very good if we are a top four team. We are playing a higher percentage of lowish teams away and a higher percentage of stronger teams at home compared to last year. This means we have a lot of 60/40, 50/50 and 40/60 matches compared to last year. None of our first 5 matches were easy but all were winnable (compared to Collingwood at the MCG or Geelong at Geelong). Now that we have dug a very big hole it is quite possible we will fall apart.

However, I am an optimist so I think making the Eight is still more likely than going Owen 23.

None of us expected to be this bad and thought finals were a real possibility, problem is I believe the club thought it was a given.

I’m banking on about 6 wins but that’s going to come down to Essendon and North in the next 3 weeks, I think we are a risk of losing both. Our system and our confidence is shot.

 

[skam85]

It beggars belief the Fixture they've been gifted.

Lol we have played teams that finished 2023 in: 15th, 12th, 14th, 6th.
Three (!) of these in prime time slots.

That combined with having the second highest free kick differential in the competition.

Who the hell cares about Port. We've been gifted a great draw and the umpires love us. Yet we're 0-4 with a poor percentage.

 

[footy4ever]

Lol we have played teams that finished 2023 in: 15th, 12th, 14th, 6th.
Three (!) of these in prime time slots.

That combined with having the second highest free kick differential in the competition.

Who the hell cares about Port. We've been gifted a great draw and the umpires love us. Yet we're 0-4 with a poor percentage.

It was a reply to a post that was about Port. So no need to be the magnanimous Port police.

Yes, I'm sorry I didn't take the quoted post apart in detail and disagree with using last years' placings as an indication of the fixture. Agreeing with a poster who was pointing out to a Port poster, the piss easy fixture they've had is what I was doing.

I'll copy paste this from an earlier post of mine.

At the time of the post - "Zip - 4 sheesh. Three of the teams we've played are currently top four ( not just because they've played us) and two of those are undefeated. Dees have won 4 of 5"... and pointed out it was not planned nor contrived by the AFL.

Compare that to the swill Port have played this year. Fair to say our fixture has been shit by comparison. Where's your problem?

 

[Interloperer]

Yet we're 0-4 with a poor percentage.

Best percentage of all 0-4 teams!

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Best percentage of all 0-4 teams!

May change after this week...

 

[BACCS]

I think there are only two possible wins. All others in the first 10 would be a massive upset

Essendon at home is the most winnable. Essendon are trash and Scott is a poor coach

North away is doable but only because North have been quite bad

I think it's more likely we lose to North but fluke another win. So I'll say 2-8 from the first 10

We will win the Showdown, don't care if we are 0-7 heading into it.

 

[Pugsley]

We will win the Showdown, don't care if we are 0-7 heading into it.

Spoken like a true apologist.

 

[relapse]

I think there are only two possible wins. All others in the first 10 would be a massive upset

Essendon at home is the most winnable. Essendon are trash and Scott is a poor coach

North away is doable but only because North have been quite bad

I think it's more likely we lose to North but fluke another win. So I'll say 2-8 from the first 10

Completely agree

I think realistically 2-8 is about the best we'll be

Carlton, Port, Brisbane and Collingwood will all be losses.

Essendon is about a 60/40 and North is about 40/60 due to our poor record away.

 

[GROTTO]

We will win the Showdown, don't care if we are 0-7 heading into it.

We are not winning the Showdown, assuming no major injuries/suspensions to Port.