So basically we need one of them to lose 3 games from here on...they play each other, and WC still play Sydney, Geelong, Hawthorn and us twice. Adelaide's draw is easier and that's why they are almost certainly top two imo.Im solidly in the camp of finishing top 2, thus taking all the variables of where and when you play. Our interstate record is amazing, but i would much prefer a home final week 1.
Critically too, gives Jolly a rest which will be crucial in the Prelim. He will be a key for us in any final.
Looking at what will be required to finish top 2, 18 and 4 is no certainty for top 2. I think at 18 wins, percentage will come in and we may struggle to overcome WCE and Adelaide. They have a number of potential percentage boosters still to be played.
Given we were 1 and 2 after Round 3, to finish at 18 and 4 given our draw will be a phenomenal effort.