Agree with everything you say. It's important to remember that Mitch's career has been on halt since his ACL sprain in the 2023 preseason. The last thing they need to do now is to rush him back after an ACL reconstruction just meet what is perceived to 'on schedule'. Also FWIW and its been mention on our board many times now that some athletes (mainly NBA) are being advised by their own doctors to take a more conservative 18 month rehab process with an ACL rupture so to think that the club will rush him back before 9 months is a bit ridiculous.Look I'm not trying to be pessimistic here and this is going to be a long reply cause I love this stuff. I'm just trying to set some realistic expectations.
Generally, having your first run (on altered gravity) more than 14 weeks post op is not "ahead of schedule" for an ACL repair. It's on or even a little behind to be completely honest. The club is most likely stoked with his progress, and as they have all the relevant info would be the only ones who know if he's ahead or not currently.
Some are slower to run than others. Mitch is a tall athlete with a bit of weight (probably over 100kg), it makes sense that he's taking a little longer to run.
But it doesn't really matter. Your first 3-4 months are important but you can make up a lot of ground over the next 6-9 months if you avoid any hiccups. Likewise you can have hiccups at any point that but the breaks on a good recovery.
Most AFL(W) athletes return somewhere between 9-15 months post op. The average is blown out a bit by someone in Sic's case who could have returned at the end of season but there was no value in him doing that so they waited. It is true we are seeing more and more return before 12 months which is great and testimony to both the performance teams and the players professionalism.
For what it's worth I think the earliest we can realistically expect to see Mitch is after Easter (just after 9 months) but would expect the club to hold him back until after the mid season bye given his history.
They might not, he might fly through the next 6 months with no issues and be right as rain. It's too hard to postulate given all the things that can happen between now and then.
I'm just seeing a subtle shift in that people on here were initially thinking mid season was optimistic, now it's early next season. I'd hate for Mitch to return post bye, which I stress is a normal return for an ACL and people think he's behind schedule and start question his rehab or the performance teams management.
TLDR; he'll kick 10 on Easter Monday.
If he can get through this rehab process correctly then there's a pretty good chance that he can get his career back on track which mind you wasn't trending up until he sprained his ACL. I think huge tell tale sign with Mitch once he's back is how his running form looks. If he comes back moving smoothly like he was pre-ACL then I think it's safe to say that we can start getting excited. IMO the back end of the 2025 season will be him regaining confidence in his body where the 2026 season will invariably end up being the one he tears the league apart.