I think he is a very good chance to win it - but he will probably need Hawthorn to win the last couple games and finish off strongly. The favourite does not always win, despite the media basically engraving Martin's name after their lovechild was suspended. Mitchell has racked up more possessions than anyone else ever. During the game on the weekend they ran some stats of the most 30+ possession games in a season (Mitchell now holds the record). There were a few Brownlow medal winning seasons in there.http://www.afl.com.au/brownlow-medal/predictor
Really interesting to see the games where the AFL 'experts' are not giving Tom votes. Round 10, where he had 31 touches at 83% with 14 contested, 5 tackles and 7 celarances. Round 7 against Melbourne where he once again had 31 touches, 16 of them contested had 9 score involvements, 12 tackles and 6 clearances. Then this week where he had 35 touches, 15 contested, 8 score involvements, 5 tackles and 6 clearances. Might not have been BOG in those games but would have to at least pick up 1 or 2 in some of them. I think Tom might come quite close on Brownlow night.