eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Western Bulldogs: Had a very good game against Gold Coast in Cairns, winning by 54 points and almost doubling the Suns' score in the process. Lachlan Hunter was at his prolific best, collecting 31 disposals whilst Liam Picken was the surprise up forward, booting 6 goals in the highest individual effort Cazaly's has seen in the 4 years they've played this fixture.
Essendon: Won a very high scoring affair against North Melbourne by 27 points in a game where neither defence held up all that well. Zach Merrett was again busy in the midfield, collecting 33 disposals whilst up forward Cale Hooker was the man, kicking 5 goals, including 4 in the last alongside small Orazio Fantasia kicking 4 goals as well
Head to Head (last 5)
Western Bulldogs 2-3 Essendon
Form Guide
Western Bulldogs: 3W, 2L
Essendon: 3W, 2L
Sportsbet odds
Western Bulldogs: $1.91
Essendon: $1.89
Line: 0.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
B: Baguley - Hartley - Gleeson
F: Picken - Redpath - Dale
HB: McKenna- Hurley - McGrath
HF: McLean - Bontempelli - Daniel
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Z Merrett
C: Hunter - Honeychurch - Williams
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Laverde
HB: Suckling - Young - Wood
F: Fantasia - Stewart - Hooker
B: Roberts - Cordy - Johannissen
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Heppell
R: Roughead - Liberatore - Macrae
I: Colyer - Watson - Kelly - Parish
I: Dahlhaus - Biggs - Wallis - Murphy
Western Bulldogs defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been excellent this year, kicking a goal 28% of the time it enters forward 50. The Bulldogs are slightly above average in the opposite statistic, conceding a goal 24% of the time it enters defensive 50. Essendon's main man so far this season has been Joe Daniher, who's kicked 47 goals so far this season and currently equal second in the Coleman race, with Colin Young likely to be taking the tall forward. Cale Hooker and Orazio Fantasia have had very good years as well, kicking 32 and 36 goals so far respectively, whilst James Stewart has played the third tall role well with his 14 goals from his 10 games this year and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti's 28 goals so far has been great in terms of scoreboard pressure. the Bulldogs defensive third have a tough job ahead of them this week.
Midfield/rucks battle
The Western Bulldogs have been well down on last season's form in the middle this year, which explains their significant dip in form this year. Last year they were 1st in both clearance and contested possession differential, now they're 8th in the former and 15th in the latter, whilst Essendon are around the same in both stats, lining up as 10th and 14th respectively. The Dogs have a higher top end in those stats, with 6 current players averaging more than 8 contested possessions in Mitch Wallis, Marcus Bontempelli, Jackson Macrae, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore and Toby McLean, with all of those except McLean and Dahlhaus getting 3 or more clearances a game. Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson, Zach Merrett and Brendan Goddard are the only players to do the same as the above. On the outside Essendon's run and gun from the likes of David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish will be where they try to get the Dogs. In terms of the ruck battle, Bellchambers has significantly outperformed Roughead in most of the major areas, and will be looking to dominate this game.
Western Bulldogs forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence has been a tad above the AFL average, conceding a goal 24% of the time it enters defensive 50. Western Bulldogs forward line has been very poor so far this season, kicking a goal only 21% of the time it enters their forward 50. The Bulldogs have struggled to find consistent goal kickers this year, their only player with more than 20 goals is missing, so small forward Liam Picken looks to be the most dangerous player for the Dogs, who kicked 6 against the Suns, probably will be opposed to small defender Mark Baguley. Michael Hartley will likely cover Jack Redpath as he's previously done at VFL level to good success, whilst Michael Hurley will probably take Bulldog star Marcus Bontempelli in what looks to be a great match up in terms of athleticism.
X-Factor Player
Bailey Dale has been one of the revelations for the Bulldogs this season, he's only played 10 games but has made a serious impact in most of them, and whilst his numbers aren't great he could be one to break this game open
Key stat
Western Bulldogs: Conversion rate. Their forward line simply must convert if they're to win this game, given how proficient Essendon are up the other end.
Essendon: Clearances. This is an area of the game that Essendon has struggled this year but it's a big chance to win against a side that is average in this area
Tip
The Dogs have never won a game after playing in Cairns, and I expect this trend to continue. Essendon by 37.
Western Bulldogs: Had a very good game against Gold Coast in Cairns, winning by 54 points and almost doubling the Suns' score in the process. Lachlan Hunter was at his prolific best, collecting 31 disposals whilst Liam Picken was the surprise up forward, booting 6 goals in the highest individual effort Cazaly's has seen in the 4 years they've played this fixture.
Essendon: Won a very high scoring affair against North Melbourne by 27 points in a game where neither defence held up all that well. Zach Merrett was again busy in the midfield, collecting 33 disposals whilst up forward Cale Hooker was the man, kicking 5 goals, including 4 in the last alongside small Orazio Fantasia kicking 4 goals as well
Head to Head (last 5)
Western Bulldogs 2-3 Essendon
Form Guide
Western Bulldogs: 3W, 2L
Essendon: 3W, 2L
Sportsbet odds
Western Bulldogs: $1.91
Essendon: $1.89
Line: 0.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
B: Baguley - Hartley - Gleeson
F: Picken - Redpath - Dale
HB: McKenna- Hurley - McGrath
HF: McLean - Bontempelli - Daniel
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Z Merrett
C: Hunter - Honeychurch - Williams
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Laverde
HB: Suckling - Young - Wood
F: Fantasia - Stewart - Hooker
B: Roberts - Cordy - Johannissen
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Heppell
R: Roughead - Liberatore - Macrae
I: Colyer - Watson - Kelly - Parish
I: Dahlhaus - Biggs - Wallis - Murphy
Western Bulldogs defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been excellent this year, kicking a goal 28% of the time it enters forward 50. The Bulldogs are slightly above average in the opposite statistic, conceding a goal 24% of the time it enters defensive 50. Essendon's main man so far this season has been Joe Daniher, who's kicked 47 goals so far this season and currently equal second in the Coleman race, with Colin Young likely to be taking the tall forward. Cale Hooker and Orazio Fantasia have had very good years as well, kicking 32 and 36 goals so far respectively, whilst James Stewart has played the third tall role well with his 14 goals from his 10 games this year and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti's 28 goals so far has been great in terms of scoreboard pressure. the Bulldogs defensive third have a tough job ahead of them this week.
Midfield/rucks battle
The Western Bulldogs have been well down on last season's form in the middle this year, which explains their significant dip in form this year. Last year they were 1st in both clearance and contested possession differential, now they're 8th in the former and 15th in the latter, whilst Essendon are around the same in both stats, lining up as 10th and 14th respectively. The Dogs have a higher top end in those stats, with 6 current players averaging more than 8 contested possessions in Mitch Wallis, Marcus Bontempelli, Jackson Macrae, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore and Toby McLean, with all of those except McLean and Dahlhaus getting 3 or more clearances a game. Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson, Zach Merrett and Brendan Goddard are the only players to do the same as the above. On the outside Essendon's run and gun from the likes of David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish will be where they try to get the Dogs. In terms of the ruck battle, Bellchambers has significantly outperformed Roughead in most of the major areas, and will be looking to dominate this game.
Western Bulldogs forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence has been a tad above the AFL average, conceding a goal 24% of the time it enters defensive 50. Western Bulldogs forward line has been very poor so far this season, kicking a goal only 21% of the time it enters their forward 50. The Bulldogs have struggled to find consistent goal kickers this year, their only player with more than 20 goals is missing, so small forward Liam Picken looks to be the most dangerous player for the Dogs, who kicked 6 against the Suns, probably will be opposed to small defender Mark Baguley. Michael Hartley will likely cover Jack Redpath as he's previously done at VFL level to good success, whilst Michael Hurley will probably take Bulldog star Marcus Bontempelli in what looks to be a great match up in terms of athleticism.
X-Factor Player
Bailey Dale has been one of the revelations for the Bulldogs this season, he's only played 10 games but has made a serious impact in most of them, and whilst his numbers aren't great he could be one to break this game open
Key stat
Western Bulldogs: Conversion rate. Their forward line simply must convert if they're to win this game, given how proficient Essendon are up the other end.
Essendon: Clearances. This is an area of the game that Essendon has struggled this year but it's a big chance to win against a side that is average in this area
Tip
The Dogs have never won a game after playing in Cairns, and I expect this trend to continue. Essendon by 37.
