Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

I guarantee if Hawthorn win a flag in 2025, there's not going to be a single Hawks supporter who will want to turn back the clock and won less in season 2023. I also guarantee, there won't be a single Eagles supporter saying, "f-yeah! at least we have Harley Reid as he is so much more valuable!"

What?

1. They're not going to win the flag in 2025
2. They won 7 games. They weren't really in our position.
3. Reasonably confident that in 3 years time, no one is going to want to swap Eagles 2023 for Hawks 2023.

 

[Forward Press]

What?

1. They're not going to win the flag in 2025
2. They won 7 games. They weren't really in our position.
3. Reasonably confident that in 3 years time, no one is going to want to swap Eagles 2023 for Hawks 2023.

More that you cannot be that confident of outcomes a few seasons from now. Plenty of teams have made Grand Finals and won flags when no one reasonably expected them to - you don't even have to look that far for evidence, our 2018 flag came off the back off a miracle elimination final win and pre-season pundits (notably Robert Walls) writing us off as making up the numbers at best because of key retirements and a consensus we needed a rebuild, and to rebuild hard.

Flags are a metric of success, not draft picks. I can guarantee you there will be contenders in 2025 you would not have predicted in 2023 and I can guarantee those with premierships won't give two iotas of a shit whether they had pick 1 on draft night.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

I guarantee if Hawthorn win a flag in 2025, there's not going to be a single Hawks supporter who will want to turn back the clock and won less in season 2023. I also guarantee, there won't be a single Eagles supporter saying, "f-yeah! at least we have Harley Reid as he is so much more valuable!"

what the hell are you talking about

 

[Forward Press]

what the hell are you talking about

Check the post I quoted.

I know it's draft season and non-finalists all talk about that for the next two months and float ridiculous trade scenarios and Harley Reid is now apparently the next GOAT, but we're in this for wins and flags and if North manage to win a flag with their current bunch they won't give two hoots that they won their game against Gold Coast in the last round of 2023 to deny themselves Harley Reid.

 

[BartBart]

Pretty confident we're taking Harley.


1. He's the best kid in the draft. Some say the best kid at this age ever. To not take him would be incompetent.
2. McKercher and Sanders are a Tasmanian flight risk. Curtin is a CHB. Watson is a wizard. None of these players are the types you should spend a top 5 pick on.
3. When you get to Duursma and Caddy, it's starting to get Captain Risky. Could be A graders, but equally could be those frustrating players who show glimpses but never get consistency.
4. After Reid, Walter, McKercher, Curtin, Watson, Duursma, Sanders, Read, it drops off. The only players we really want (or are available to us) in that lot are Reid, Curtin, McKercher.
5. Flag teams are typically built around midfields. Hewett and Ginbey look promising, Culley and Chesser are maybes. We should not be spending top 5 picks for anything other than a midfielder (unless a Jed Walter type is available).
6. The flight risk issue is largely a myth. The Tassie boys are risks, maybe those twin flogs Watson and Caddy are risks, but we have to back ourselves.
7. No club is likely to be offer a Godfather deal. A deal would need minimum, one of Curtin or McKercher and then some top picks on top. North may have it, but if they have 2 and 3, they're better off with Curtin and McKercher. Not taking Reid is not near as big a deal for them as it is us. Those other clubs offering a top 5 pick with a glass of skim milk can GTFO.
8. This idea that multiple picks make it quicker to rebuild is flawed. Hawks did it and nailed it, but you can easily get it wrong and end up with a midfield like Essendon's that doesn't cut it (not saying they took multiple top 10 picks in the same year, just saying if you build a midfield that can't compete with the best, you may as well pack it in).


I'll be gobsmacked if we don't take Harley Reid. I doubt our recruiting team have any intention of trading him, and are probably thinking, "we'll take him unless North offer us 2 and 3". I just don't see any other club being in a position to come up with something suitable.

As for the Vic media, some of these guys should have their credibility called out. "Open for business", "they should take multiple picks", "they need a replacement for Hurn", "they need quantity" etc. It's simply laughable and they should be questioned what has made them think and speak so irrationally.

And as for who Reid players like:

Isaac Heeney but beastier. Heeney/Trac love child.

The only point Essendon had 8, 9, 10 in the 2020 Draft - but like you said it hasn't helped them win a final.

I reckon we take Reid and it's probably unlikely we can get another top 4 pick unless we use our future 1st.

Then it is picking the player(s) we want out of the next big bunch of fairly even players, if we can get a deal for pick 1 on day 2 (and maybe get 2 decent ptodpects) & if we can get Collard after pick 40.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

More that you cannot be that confident of outcomes a few seasons from now.

I am.

Plenty of teams have made Grand Finals and won flags when no one reasonably expected them to - you don't even have to look that far for evidence, our 2018 flag came off the back off a miracle elimination final win and pre-season pundits (notably Robert Walls) writing us off as making up the numbers at best because of key retirements and a consensus we needed a rebuild, and to rebuild hard.

We'd been quietly building a team for a while. While somewhat surprising, Hawthorn just don't have the cattle that we had.

Flags are a metric of success, not draft picks.

Flags are a metric for success, top draft picks are how you get there.

I can guarantee you there will be contenders in 2025 you would not have predicted in 2023 and I can guarantee those with premierships won't give two iotas of a s**t whether they had pick 1 on draft night.

Sure. Carlton, Adelaide, Gold Coast, potentially Freo. Not Hawthorn. I have North's list above Hawthorn.

I don't know what you're trying to prove here? Just seems like you're trying to argue for argument's sake.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

The only point Essendon had 8, 9, 10 in the 2020 Draft - but like you said it hasn't helped them win a final.

Hawks had Rough at 2, Buddy at 5, and Lewis at 7. Higher picks in a stronger draft and absolutely nailed it. Just looking at the 2020 draft, it's early days but it looks a bit shit. Now Essendon with their culture problem are looking at Tarryn Thomas. I've watched him, he can play to an elite level, but he goes missing and doesn't do the hard work when it's required. They'll be in the mix for the spoon next year.

I reckon we take Reid and it's probably unlikely we can get another top 4 pick unless we use our future 1st.

Then it is picking the player(s) we want out of the next big bunch of fairly even players, if we can get s deal for pick 1 on day 2 & if we can get Collard after pick 40.

I'm just hoping that whoever we pick have the same attitude as Long, Hewett, Hough etc, realise the real opportunity to kick start a career in a weak team and cement spots, rather than buy into "it's all too hard". You can see the way Hewett plays - he just wants it. He's just going about his business trying to learn how to be a gun at the elite level. Playing in a weak team is of no consequence for him. He just wants to be good, regardless, and nothing is going to stop him. Reminds me of a young Ben Cousins.

 

[Forward Press]

I don't know what you're trying to prove here? Just seems like you're trying to argue for argument's sake.

Maybe. I am a bit bored. Your first post was bang on, but I didn't agree with subsequent calls you made on certain things. Especially with how absolutely certain you are of success before a player has even donned the jersey or that Hawthorn will never win a flag with this crew.

History is littered with sides that had a poor year/s immediately hitting on success. Another example that sprang to mind is Richmond 2016 who missed finals and many assumed had their window firmly shut after successive finals failures in the three years before. Even last year, many wrote off Geelong as having fired their last shot in 2021.

Anyway, you do you because you correctly pointed out I'm arguing for argument's sake now.

 

[BartBart]

Hawks had Rough at 2, Buddy at 5, and Lewis at 7. Higher picks in a stronger draft and absolutely nailed it. Just looking at the 2020 draft, it's early days but it looks a bit s**t. Now Essendon with their culture problem are looking at Tarryn Thomas. I've watched him, he can play to an elite level, but he goes missing and doesn't do the hard work when it's required. They'll be in the mix for the spoon next year.
....

It shows the difference in the draft - as we know that last year was fine to split top level picks but you wouldn't (shouldn't!) do it this year.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Especially with how absolutely certain you are of success before a player has even donned the jersey

I've never said this. Please stop making stuff up.

 

[ROO DOGG]

I guarantee, when it comes to draft night, there's not going to be a single Eagles supporter who will want to turn back the clock and win another game in season 2023. I also guarantee, there won't be a single North supporter saying, "f-yeah! that win against Gold Coast is so much more valuable!".

Unless some crazy stuff happens, we draft Harley along with 5 or so other kids. Maybe that includes Dev and Brockman. Then we put games into them. Hewett, Ginbey, Culley, Long, Baydog, Chesser, Hough, Bazzo, Barnet, Williams, Reid and a few other kids/players we draft.

I expect next year to see both green shoots and inconsistency. If we could keep the 90pt losses to 2, win 5 or 6 games, and start to see a new look team, we're doing okay.

Then draft another top quality mid next draft like O'Sullivan or Smille, put our cape on, and off we go.

 

[ROO DOGG]

Yes

I expect we'll draft Reid with Pick 1 but I think everyone is on edge in case we pull some crazy s**t to end up with a HBF and an inferior mid to Reid instead just doing the obvious thing.

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Harsh maybe but i don't care. Just don't * this up pie man and friends!

Very harsh on Chesser, he needs more time.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

It shows the difference in the draft - as we know that last year was fine to split tpp level picks but you wouldn't (shouldn't!) do it this year.

If i was a Melbourne team, I'd be taking Wardlaw or Sheezel, hands down. But given our circumstances, split looks like the right move. Last year's draft is shaping up as one of the best. This years draft, considering how well Harley is rated, along with issues with players after him, splitting would be crazy unless an even crazier offer was made.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Then draft another top quality mid next draft like O'Sullivan or Smille, put our cape on, and off we go.

Yep, even still, it will take a few years because essentially the midfield has to be able to beat the other top midfields, and then you need other stars smattered around the ground. But if we can draft that base, watching the team climb the ladder and into flag contention is enjoyable.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

If hawks win a flag in 2025 i will eat my left testicle.

And I'll eat your right, with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Very harsh on Chesser, he needs more time.

Who did we sacrifice to pick him again? Sinn or Hobbs? And got Chesser and Burgiel? Sinn has played 4 games. Hobbs looks okay, but Redden like, rather than Patty Cripps like. I'm not losing my shit over this just yet.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Sounds delicious.

No need to talk yourself up.

 

[ROO DOGG]

Who did we sacrifice to pick him again? Sinn or Hobbs? And got Chesser and Burgiel? Sinn has played 4 games. Hobbs looks okay, but Redden like, rather than Patty Cripps like. I'm not losing my s**t over this just yet.

Still a long way to go with that draft class but i would have thaught Hobbs ceiling is not much higher than what he has shown. Just imagine a midfield of Hobbs, Sheed and Gaff this year, would make the Road Runner look slow.

 

[WCE_phil]

Who did we sacrifice to pick him again? Sinn or Hobbs? And got Chesser and Burgiel? Sinn has played 4 games. Hobbs looks okay, but Redden like, rather than Patty Cripps like. I'm not losing my s**t over this just yet.

West Coast sacrificed Sinn as the club was never drafting Hobbs.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Sorry, sounds horrible.

I'd imagine grisly and hard to hold down. It'd probably hit the stomach and spring back out. The whole affair would make me feel a bit testy.

 

[Truly Lazuli]

If hawks win a flag in 2025 i will eat my left testicle.

As an entree or a main with chips etc?

 

[Kapowie1]

Yep, even still, it will take a few years because essentially the midfield has to be able to beat the other top midfields, and then you need other stars smattered around the ground. But if we can draft that base, watching the team climb the ladder and into flag contention is enjoyable.

Can’t wait to enjoy the climb!! 03-04 plus 11-12 were so much fun. The footy media landscape has gone to utter sh1t now but man I loved watching every show available over the 11-12 seasons. Definitely reignited my love for the game after the crash of 08-10.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Keys]

There’s some Geelong board BODE areas being strayed into here

Leave it to the experts can we and refrain from doing it here

Thanks

 

[Forward Press]

I've never said this. Please stop making stuff up.

I dunno, you seemed pretty bullish on Reid.

'Heeney but beastier' or the love child of Petracca and Heeney would be awesome and definitely justify pick 1 - but I will wait and see until he plays a few games first imo.

Maybe it's an argument about the definition of absolute confidence but I never confidently predict any side would be top/middle/bottom in two AFL seasons - a lot can change. I'd be interested to know if you correctly predicted the Hawks and Tigers dynasties for example.

 

[Hook461123]

Who did we sacrifice to pick him again? Sinn or Hobbs? And got Chesser and Burgiel? Sinn has played 4 games. Hobbs looks okay, but Redden like, rather than Patty Cripps like. I'm not losing my s**t over this just yet.

Johnson was the one we sacrificed. He was the one we were linked to and when we split our pick and he was still there I thought we were geniuses.
Not saying Chesser wont improve but Johnson has shown more at this stage of their careers. Next year will be important for Chesser with a full preseason. I want to see some of his elite break the lines running he is supposed to be capable of.