Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[darksquare]

The best Harley Reid comparison I think is the 2019 draft with Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

Go through the top 10 and think of any combination of 3 first rounders you would want for Rowell and its pretty difficult to find.....

2019 AFL draft - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Best kjind of deal we would be heading towards in that example would be Lachie Ash, Hayden Young

26

Hayden Young

Age

23

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

2star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

160.0

3star

, Caleb Serong

3

Caleb Serong

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

but rest would be a immense loss on if we gave up the pick 1 for 3 top 10 picks in that similar draft

All in all a easy decision to keep pick 1 when you look at that draft

But look at the previous year. Would you trade Sam Walsh for any three of Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine, Max King, Connor Rozee, Ben King, Bailey Smith, Tarryn Thomas, Chayce Jones, Nick Blakey, Jye Caldwell or Zak Butters?

Absolutely, even if you got the worst combination in Thomas, Jones and Caldwell.


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[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

But look at the previous year. Would you trade Sam Walsh for any three of Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine, Max King, Connor Rozee, Ben King, Bailey Smith, Tarryn Thomas, Chayce Jones, Nick Blakey, Jye Caldwell or Zak Butters?

Absolutely, even if you got the worst combination in Thomas, Jones and Caldwell.


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Dont think Sam Walsh was that much better then the rest like Rowell/Anderson were though so yeah I would

Im trying to do a draft to draft comparison in that way

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

North doing just enough to keep threatening for the spoon

With the percentage difference, we're effectively 2 wins behind them.

Not sure we have another 2 wins in us this year.

 

[Ghossein]

I'm sure I will be blasted for this but I say split both our first 2 pics.

Trade pick 1 for picks ~3 and 4

Trade pick 19 for picks ~15 and 22

If we are serious about this rebuild then we need to turn over the list and bring in good talent. Pick 1 has historically rarely to never been the best player from any given draft year. A spread of picks in the top ~25 gives you the best chance at recruiting a good amount of talent.

 

[ziad]

I'm sure I will be blasted for this but I say split both our first 2 pics.

Trade pick 1 for picks ~3 and 4

Trade pick 19 for picks ~15 and 22

If we are serious about this rebuild then we need to turn over the list and bring in good talent. Pick 1 has historically rarely to never been the best player from any given draft year. A spread of picks in the top ~25 gives you the best chance at recruiting a good amount of talent.

dont know what other clubs would do that deal with us?

who was the highest regarded play in the last two drafts (F&S etc aside). Thats what we will potentially give up to trade. Without speculating they are players you build a game plan around. But no guarentees which favours the unattainable trade swap

 

[Hook461123]

So in this hypothetical (but likely) scenario we get pick 1 and do split it for 4&6.
1. Reid
2. Walter (academy)
3. Duursma
4. McKercher
5. Curtin? Who do we take at 5? Watson a small fwd, Sanders the Tassie boy or more likely Curtin.
6. Sanders
7. ? Watson or Edwards?

If we split Reid only to then reach for Curtin and Edwards I'll be dissapointed. A ruck and a KPD. If we split it for McKercher and Sanders would be better but there is the risk we don't get them.

My preference is to take Reid who complements Ginbey's defensive game well, gives us some much needed swagger and some elite talent. We also need a new superstar to replace Nic.
Then wait and see who is available at 19. I've got a feeling even if we take Reid at 1, that one of Edwards or Curtin (especially if WA keeps getting thumped) will be available. If not there should be one of Tholstrup, O'Sullivan or even Moir available. We then still have another 2nd and two 3rds to draft for needs. Thats 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. We should be able to find enough gems in the 5 picks we have without trading away pick 1.

 

[Farang83150]

My concern is around depth. If we pick Reid then what happens if he gets injured? I would prefer to have 3 first rounders - the depth there across the squad is more considerable and we dont become dependent on one player. I dont think we have the luxury to do that considering how badly the list needs new talent across the board. As many people have said - we hold the whip hand and can sit on our hands fielding offers until the Godfather offer arrives. Trade that for the biggest bounty you can get for it, retain pick 19. Then you're in the position to do the same thing on the second day. Getting back on top needs ruthlessness and canny negotiating.

Not sure if serious?
Don't draft a player because he might get injured....that's next level stuff.

 

[Rowan18]

I'm sure I will be blasted for this but I say split both our first 2 pics.

Trade pick 1 for picks ~3 and 4

Trade pick 19 for picks ~15 and 22

If we are serious about this rebuild then we need to turn over the list and bring in good talent. Pick 1 has historically rarely to never been the best player from any given draft year. A spread of picks in the top ~25 gives you the best chance at recruiting a good amount of talent.

I think you made a typo there. What club is trading pick 15 and 22 for pick 19? They're paying us pick 22 to Downgrade their pick 15 4 spots to pick 19.

 

[ziad]

So in this hypothetical (but likely) scenario we get pick 1 and do split it for 4&6.
1. Reid
2. Walter (academy)
3. Duursma
4. McKercher
5. Curtin? Who do we take at 5? Watson a small fwd, Sanders the Tassie boy or more likely Curtin.
6. Sanders
7. ? Watson or Edwards?

If we split Reid only to then reach for Curtin and Edwards I'll be dissapointed. A ruck and a KPD. If we split it for McKercher and Sanders would be better but there is the risk we don't get them.

My preference is to take Reid who complements Ginbey's defensive game well, gives us some much needed swagger and some elite talent. We also need a new superstar to replace Nic.
Then wait and see who is available at 19. I've got a feeling even if we take Reid at 1, that one of Edwards or Curtin (especially if WA keeps getting thumped) will be available. If not there should be one of Tholstrup, O'Sullivan or even Moir available. We then still have another 2nd and two 3rds to draft for needs. Thats 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. We should be able to find enough gems in the 5 picks we have without trading away pick 1.

Curtin didnt look like a first rounder against the Allies. Several of his opponents did however.

 

[Hook461123]

Curtin didnt look like a first rounder against the Allies.

With the ball in hand he was pretty good. One on one he was ok with Walter but didn't see any of the intercept making or reading of the play that he is renowned for. Was an ok game but nothing more.
If WA keep performing that badly he may slip to our second. Or we might be able to trade up with pick 19 and a future 2nd to get him in the mid/late teens if we really want him. Would have to be a draft day trade if another team threaten to take him before our 2nd pick.

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

Dont think Sam Walsh was that much better then the rest like Rowell/Anderson were though so yeah I would

Im trying to do a draft to draft comparison in that way

The Rowell draft is probably the one draft in the last 15 years where pick 1 is of more value then the two next best first rounders combined- and even then its arguable. He's great, but Anderson + Serong is pretty damn handy for a team looking to rebuild.

I think the major difference in pick 1s historically is whilst they are not a sure thing, the chance of a full blown washout is pretty low.

For the 15 year stretch from 2005 to 2019, there are actually only 4 pick 1s who've been all australian (assuming Rowell is a lock for this year). But of the other 11, 6 (McGrath, Raynor, Swallow, Boyd Kreuzer, Gibbs) have had very solid careers. Compared to that a random pick from the top 10 has about the same chance of being the best player in the draft but far more chance of being a complete washout.

 

[Dylan82]

Trade talk of pick 1 is nothing but the hopes of those supporting rival clubs trying to convince West Coast into doing something stupid.


Take Reid with pick 1.

Then aggressively trade back into the 1st round to get Sanders.


A developing midfield quartet of Ginbey, Hewett, Reid and Sanders would not only have an elite ceiling, but also possess a highly complimentary set of attributes that should piece together very well.


BSD time for the pie-man.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The Rowell draft is probably the one draft in the last 15 years where pick 1 is of more value then the two next best first rounders combined- and even then its arguable. He's great, but Anderson + Serong is pretty damn handy for a team looking to rebuild.

I think the major difference in pick 1s historically is whilst they are not a sure thing, the chance of a full blown washout is pretty low.

For the 15 year stretch from 2005 to 2019, there are actually only 4 pick 1s who've been all australian (assuming Rowell is a lock for this year). But of the other 11, 6 (McGrath, Raynor, Swallow, Boyd Kreuzer, Gibbs) have had very solid careers. Compared to that a random pick from the top 10 has about the same chance of being the best player in the draft but far more chance of being a complete washout.

100% agree with all of this. Reid is in that Rowell talk though and not the other 6 mentioned though

Out of all the 20+ combinations you can have in that Rowell trade year, 1 is better and about 10+ are remarkably worse

Not worth the risk

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

100% agree with all of this. Reid is in that Rowell talk though and not the other 6 mentioned though

Plenty of them were hyped pre draft.

Hell, the "Bryce Gibbs Cup" was such a thing in 2006 that essendon and carlton actually drew when they played each other that year. And the tank off to get Tom Scully was so fierce it sparked an AFL investigation.

I'm not knocking Harley Reid, he looks very impressive and if we finish last I reckon we'll take him rather than trade. But he's by no means a sure thing.

 

[ThePuma #9]

Reid is head and shoulders above the rest, he would have gone pick 1 last year against a much stronger midfield crop.

The problem is I can see us trading pick 1. Not because we have to or we are afraid of the go home factor, although that will be the narrative. No, the real reason we will try and trade pick 1 is to fill the cupboard with more youth so those who let this debacle happen in the first place can try and cover their asses.

It will be a knee jerk reaction and one that might haunt us for a very long time. I hope I’m wrong but I just feel it in my bones.

 

[Rowan18]

Reid is head and shoulders above the rest, he would have gone pick 1 last year against a much stronger midfield crop.

The problem is I can see us trading pick 1. Not because we have to or we are afraid of the go home factor, although that will be the narrative. No, the real reason we will try and trade pick 1 is to fill the cupboard with more youth so those who let this debacle happen in the first place can try and cover their asses.

It will be a knee jerk reaction and one that might haunt us for a very long time. I hope I’m wrong but I just feel it in my bones.

Nah, I don't think any club will have enough currency to do a trade by the time we get there. The only one that looks close is GWS, but as of this weekend, pick 6 has moved to pick 7 (due to Richmond winning) and there's every chance it goes up a few more spots again. Hell, even GWS could win enough games to move pick 4 up to 5 or 6. Pick 6 and 9 wouldn't come close to getting pick 1.

 

[CountryLad]

We would be absolutely stupid to not take Reid. It's a no brainer no team is giving 3 top ten picks up so forget about that.

As others have said trade to get Gold Coasts 1st this year and you have 2 first rounders.

Then target English and Taylor in free agency the following year. Hopefully land both but at least one.

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Like the enthusiasm but the same people in here were saying similar things about the Suns pick last year. I doubt we get it and there’s so much to play out with trade week yet.

Taylor and English are both RFA so I’d expect both clubs to fight hard to retain or at least make the Eagles pay up. They can always match and force a trade.

Free agency will be used in our rebuild but I’d expect players like Hunt this year to be easier gets for the Eagles. It’s going to be a hard sell to get an A grader to jump ship with what we are producing currently.

Free agency has worked the opposite to what the AFL thought where quality players are using it to chase a premiership and get to a club of choice rather than get an extra few hundred thousand from a bottom club.
Hopefully one of the guys you mentioned are really keen to get back to WA.

 

[Coasters7]

Depends on the offer for me but 90/10 in favour of keeping the pick.

Like others have said, it would have to be a team like the Giants coming to us with 3 top ten picks for me to be happy trading. I wouldn’t be actively shopping it.

 

[ziad]

With the ball in hand he was pretty good. One on one he was ok with Walter but didn't see any of the intercept making or reading of the play that he is renowned for. Was an ok game but nothing more.
If WA keep performing that badly he may slip to our second. Or we might be able to trade up with pick 19 and a future 2nd to get him in the mid/late teens if we really want him. Would have to be a draft day trade if another team threaten to take him before our 2nd pick.

He is a good prospect for our second or better third pick. Key forwards towled him up remember

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Reactionary thread as I've ever seen.

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[Eastern Rangers]

Edwards and Curtin will be long gone by pick 19.

Clubs do a reasonable job of assessing players and if WA remains uncompetitive as a collective it won't necessarily impact their individual ratings.

We'll see how WA does v SA & Vics.

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[ROYAL EAGLE]

Depends if we get pick a priority pick 2 to go with pick 1
if we dont win another game for rest of year, we are the worst team in history,
that i think would get us pick 2 as well as pick 1

 

[CountryLad]

Depends if we get pick a priority pick 2 to go with pick 1
if we dont win another game for rest of year, we are the worst team in history,
that i think would get us pick 2 as well as pick 1

Doubt the AFL will be that generous.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Doubt the AFL will be that generous.

I can't see the AFL giving us an inch. Even a pick to trade would be generous given West Coast has got themselves into this mess. Neither injuries to senior players nor poor list management generally should be used as a justification for priority selections. We're too rich and too successful a football club to warrant sympathy.

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[ronpingwins]

Depends if we get pick a priority pick 2 to go with pick 1
if we dont win another game for rest of year, we are the worst team in history,
that i think would get us pick 2 as well as pick 1

Have you heard anything about what players we like RE?