Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[kranky al]

Yeo was pretty good.

Yeo is an excellent mid as is shuey but neither are elite.

A+

 

[eaglespremiers]

If you look at where those really top tier midfield bulls come from, they're usually a high draft pick but beyond that there's no real science to it- if you look at the current top 10 in brownlow voting, 8 of them were first round draft picks but none of them were actually pick 1.

Sure, but if you look at those favourites for the Brownlow they include:

• Christian Petracca - was a legitimate no. 1 pick selection and lost out to McCartin simply on the Saints preference for a key position player;
• Nick Daicos - I mean, come on, the kid was the no. 1 selection on the open market in his U18 season. Of course, he went father-son but he was definitely the equivalent of Reid two years ago;
• Tim Taranto - maybe not pick 1, but pick 2 doesn't seem to tip the pendulum too far regarding your contention;
• Andrew Brayshaw - please refer to Tim Taranto above;
• Marcus Bontempelli - finally, not a pick 1 or 2, however, pick 4 is still a stupidly high pick;
• Ditto Clayton Oliver, Connor Rozee and Jordan De Goey (if he hadn't been rubbed out);
• Matt Rowell - been thereabouts this year as a "midfield bull" and went at pick 1; and
• Noah Anderson - went pick 2 to Rowell's pick 1.

The outliers are Zac Butters (pick 12, 181cm, 78kg), Lachie Neale (pick 58, 178cm, 84kg) and Caleb Serong (pick 8, 179cm, 83kg) but whilst all are extremely accomplished as midfielders none of them scream "midfield bull" due to their stature (of course every team needs this kind of player). Plus only Neale is the only outlier in terms of his low draft selection.

I think the rule, based on the current elite mids is, that a top 4 pick gives you much greater chances of a top tier midfielder in the long run.

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

I

Sure, but if you look at those favourites for the Brownlow they include:

• Christian Petracca - was a legitimate no. 1 pick selection and lost out to McCartin simply on the Saints preference for a key position player;
• Nick Daicos - I mean, come on, the kid was the no. 1 selection on the open market in his U18 season. Of course, he went father-son but he was definitely the equivalent of Reid two years ago;
• Tim Taranto - maybe not pick 1, but pick 2 doesn't seem to tip the pendulum too far regarding your contention;
• Andrew Brayshaw - please refer to Tim Taranto above;
• Marcus Bontempelli - finally, not a pick 1 or 2, however, pick 4 is still a stupidly high pick;
• Ditto Clayton Oliver, Connor Rozee and Jordan De Goey (if he hadn't been rubbed out);
• Matt Rowell - been thereabouts this year as a "midfield bull" and went at pick 1; and
• Noah Anderson - went pick 2 to Rowell's pick 1.

The outliers are Zac Butters (pick 12, 181cm, 78kg), Lachie Neale (pick 58, 178cm, 84kg) and Caleb Serong (pick 8, 179cm, 83kg) but whilst all are extremely accomplished as midfielders none of them scream "midfield bull" due to their stature (of course every team needs this kind of player). Plus only Neale is the only outlier in terms of his low draft selection.

I think the rule, based on the current elite mids is, that a top 4 pick gives you much greater chances of a top tier midfielder in the long run.

On the other hand last year's premiership midfield was primarily composed of pick 10 (Dangerfield) pick 19 (Smith) pick 23 (Guthrie) pick 7 (Selwood) and they obliterated Sydney.

Ages ago when I had more time on my hands I tried to figure this out by looking at a 10 year sample from the draft from the 2000s and checking what chance each pick ends up being a AA calibre star/a good ordinary 150+ game player/a dud, from memory there was no obvious difference in the number of outright superstars found with picks 1-5, with the only difference being that #1s are way more likely to at be at least good ordinary players rather than outright duds. Then there is a slight drop off in chance of stars/increase in duds after about pick 5 but basically no distinction at all between say 2 and 4 or 7 and 9.

Not sure if that would still hold true this decade but just looking at a list of picks from a few years back it still looks about right.

 

[bzparkes]

Curtin wins the Larke medal and we do a reverse Jack Watts and pick him at 1, letting Reid fall to North.

I can see the Vic media applying huge pressure if Curtin did, in fact, win the Larke medal, for us to pick him at #1..

Won't happen but they can dream...

 

[chaddy22]

Curtin wins the Larke medal and we do a reverse Jack Watts and pick him at 1, letting Reid fall to North.

I can see the Vic media applying huge pressure if Curtin did, in fact, win the Larke medal, for us to pick him at #1..

Won't happen but they can dream...

If Curtin wins the Larke medal we will redraft Brander as first pick.

 

[ThePuma #9]

I had a nightmare the other night that we traded pick 1 for a handful or picks and we drafted a KPD and Ruckman with our first two picks.

Thank heavens we’re not THAT stupid.

 

[eaglespremiers]

I had a nightmare the other night that we traded pick 1 for a handful or picks and we drafted a KPD and Ruckman with our first two picks.

Thank heavens we’re not THAT stupid.

I had a dream we took Vontae Mack. I was not disappointed.

 

[KERRPOW]

Yeo is an excellent mid as is shuey but neither are elite.

A+

Yeo at his peak was f u cking ELITE

 

[WCE_phil]

Yeo at his peak was f u cking ELITE

So elite that Shuey still copped and beat a tag for 100+ games.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Taking a generational talent like Reid seems too good to happen to us right now.

Expect the credits crew to win a few meaningless fixtures at the end of the season to scupper our dreams.

I mean, with North keep losing the close ones...it just has that feel about it, yannow.

 

[ziad]

Sure, but if you look at those favourites for the Brownlow they include:

• Christian Petracca - was a legitimate no. 1 pick selection and lost out to McCartin simply on the Saints preference for a key position player;
• Nick Daicos - I mean, come on, the kid was the no. 1 selection on the open market in his U18 season. Of course, he went father-son but he was definitely the equivalent of Reid two years ago;
• Tim Taranto - maybe not pick 1, but pick 2 doesn't seem to tip the pendulum too far regarding your contention;
• Andrew Brayshaw - please refer to Tim Taranto above;
• Marcus Bontempelli - finally, not a pick 1 or 2, however, pick 4 is still a stupidly high pick;
• Ditto Clayton Oliver, Connor Rozee and Jordan De Goey (if he hadn't been rubbed out);
• Matt Rowell - been thereabouts this year as a "midfield bull" and went at pick 1; and
• Noah Anderson - went pick 2 to Rowell's pick 1.

The outliers are Zac Butters (pick 12, 181cm, 78kg), Lachie Neale (pick 58, 178cm, 84kg) and Caleb Serong (pick 8, 179cm, 83kg) but whilst all are extremely accomplished as midfielders none of them scream "midfield bull" due to their stature (of course every team needs this kind of player). Plus only Neale is the only outlier in terms of his low draft selection.

I think the rule, based on the current elite mids is, that a top 4 pick gives you much greater chances of a top tier midfielder in the long run.

So the collective football industry identifies the best players pretty well. With the exception of WC. Not surprised to be reading this.

 

[Obeanie1]

This sort of groupthink about a clear standout pick 1 rolls around every few years, and if you look back over the last decade or so there are actually only two #1s (Walsh and Rowell) who are arguably the best player in their draft, and even those two have multiple other guys in their top 10 who were very very good- Rozee, Max King and Rankine in Walsh's top 10, Noah Anderson and Serong in Rowell's.

Point being that Harley Reid is not necessarily the sure thing people have decided he is- he's an excellent junior who has looked great at u/18 level but there are many players with as good a CV as his who for whatever reason never really put it together at AFL level. And many more who just end up as really good players rather than clear standout superstars.

That said, I doubt we will trade pick 1 if we get it, simply because FOMO is too powerful a motivation. If you're a recruiter and you make the incredibly controversial call to trade away the Reid pick, if he turns out to be all he's cracked up to be you'll be a punchline forever. Whereas if you select him and he turns out to be underwhelming, noone is going to be critical for the club taking the obvious consensus standout.

Who Dares Wins

Only issue with that is both options are daring!

If we do split Im leaning towards one pick being used on Wats9n if available. He looks like the main contender for being equal or better than Reid and the only concern is his size. But by splitting we can take a bit m9re of a risk with one pickq and balance the risk with the 2nd and or 3rd pick.

The other option is trade this years 2nd and a F2nd to get another 1st the is year if we really want anotyer decent pick.

Pros and c9ns either way. Tough call.

 

[Obeanie1]

Taking a generational talent like Reid seems too good to happen to us right now.

Expect the credits crew to win a few meaningless fixtures at the end of the season to scupper our dreams.

I mean, with North keep losing the close ones...it just has that feel about it, yannow.

We would need to win two games and North win none. Cant see North ending with a lowee %.

 

[archiemoses]

I can't see the AFL giving us an inch. Even a pick to trade would be generous given West Coast has got themselves into this mess. Neither injuries to senior players nor poor list management generally should be used as a justification for priority selections. We're too rich and too successful a football club to warrant sympathy.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

Why are we not allowed a priority pick because we got ourselves into this mess but it's okay for every other club who has done the same thing historically.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Why are we not allowed a priority pick because we got ourselves into this mess but it's okay for every other club who has done the same thing historically.

Exactly, every team ever that's finished last has "gotten themselves into it"

 

[kranky al]

Yeo at his peak was f u cking ELITE

My definition of midfield elite is being an a plus mid whilst being able to take the tag and it not slow you down.

Shuey was better at taking the tag although it did slow him down to an extent.

Yeo not so much. See gf 2018.

To me an elite player is unstoppable. judd, daicos, bont, petracca

 

[WA footy mad]

Im not sure what we are going to do with pick 2, After NM have got Reid we should take a couple of 1st rounders.
Eagles are stupid enough to win a few games and lose the 1st round pick. NM have been in position to win a few games, but they are clinging onto the hope of getting the 1st pick.

 

[Coasters7]

We would need to win two games and North win none. Cant see North ending with a lowee %.

We didn’t look that bad with a full squad though. The run home looks pretty tough but I can potentially see us beating North and maybe 1 or 2 of Carlton or Richmond.

Would definitely be something that I wouldn’t be surprised by. Absolute monty all year for the spoon, cooking the season almost instantly. To then win a bunch of games with the old crew, miss Reid, trade pick 2 or 3 for a return like last year and go into next year with the mindset that we still have legs in this group because of the late season form

 

[Monsterdarlz]

There is zero rush to add a heap of players now. Assuming Ginbey, Hewett and Culley become AFL level midfielders they are 2/3 seasons away from hitting any kind of stride add Reid and 1/2 more elite prospects in the next two years suddenly it doesn’t look so bad

 

[amazingjoshy]

We didn’t look that bad with a full squad though. The run home looks pretty tough but I can potentially see us beating North and maybe 1 or 2 of Carlton or Richmond.

Be a hell of a turnaround in 2 months beating Carlton away after they beat us by 100+ at Optus a month ago

 

[chaddy22]

We didn’t look that bad with a full squad though. The run home looks pretty tough but I can potentially see us beating North and maybe 1 or 2 of Carlton or Richmond.

Would definitely be something that I wouldn’t be surprised by. Absolute monty all year for the spoon, cooking the season almost instantly. To then win a bunch of games with the old crew, miss Reid, trade pick 2 or 3 for a return like last year and go into next year with the mindset that we still have legs in this group because of the late season form

North Melbourne get back Ldu,simpkin,Greenwood and Xerri to resume in the magoos.Some handy ins.They have more potential to win one-two games than us.

 

[Schtinker]

Draft Expert - PMBangers 2023 Draft Thread

Watson and Rogers jump out as the best users in my eyes from the top end, w9th Darcy Wilson not bad either but a little more prone to error. Not top enders in my eyes just yet, but Josh Docking (Saints NGA) and Harvey Johnston are others a little further down the order with generally high end...

www.bigfooty.com

PM Bangers take on the draft thus far. Obviously subject to change.

Do we put all our eggs in the one basket?
2nd pick drops to 22 or 23 depending if Kangas get a PP.

 

[WCE_phil]

North Melbourne get back Ldu,simpkin,Greenwood and Xerri to resume in the magoos.Some handy ins.They have more potential to win one-two games than us.

North are short on talls but otherwise have a very talented best 22, albeit young. If they have a full strength midfield it's hard to see us getting over the top of them later in the year.

 

[eaglespremiers]

So the collective football industry identifies the best players pretty well. With the exception of WC. Not surprised to be reading this.

Farbeit for me to talk you out of ragging on the club's recruiters, it's worth clarifying that my point (based on the previous poster's comment) is that the majority of the best midfielders currently are very high picks (with a not insubstantial amount being top 4 picks). If you consider the fact that since 2006 (when Hurn started this generation of player at West Coast) we've only had the following top 10 picks (excluding last year):
1. 2007 Draft - pick 3 - Chris Masten. Masten, well enough has been said about him already. Performed well for the majority of his career with moments of excellence at time. Also if you consider the other mids/non-KPP selected that draft only Dangerfield, Rioli, Ward and Stevens are empirically better players than Masten was at West Coast.
2. 2008 Draft - pick 2 - Nic Naitanui. Naitanui has performed as the best player in his draft pool.
3. 2009 Draft - pick 7 - Brad Sheppard. Despite being behind Fyfe and Martin, Sheppard was an extremely good role player and certainly far outperformed the next five selections (Butcher, Moore, Melksham, Gysberts and Lucas) combined.
4. 2010 Draft - pick 4 - Andrew Gaff. Gaff, despite his drop off recently, would've still been at picks 4-7 in retrospect.

Suffice to say (when comparing the draft outcomes and alternatives) our four most recent top 10 picks have performed essentially at the level of the pick they were selected at. Naitanui has performed better, but he only one Jack Watts from the top anyway.

These picks were taken a while ago so I'm not sure what can be gauged for our future high selections (and potentially pick 1 in there) but I don't think we can be too denunciatory at the top picked players selected. I mean, none of the above are stinkers and three are All Australian Players.

 

[Dylan82]

Taking a generational talent like Reid seems too good to happen to us right now.

Expect the credits crew to win a few meaningless fixtures at the end of the season to scupper our dreams.

I mean, with North keep losing the close ones...it just has that feel about it, yannow.

Lose in Round 20 and it's all but confirmed.


The night is darkest before the dawn.


I'm still convinced that we are setting up for a major dynasty between 2027-31.