Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[Shmiddy15]

The Richmond game will probably determine if we even finish last or not.

North v Hawthorn on the same day. Those two games will go a long way to deciding the spoon.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

North v Hawthorn on the same day. Those two games will go a long way to deciding the spoon.

I think that Hawthorn will be more motivated to win, and clearly the better side.

 

[random260]

Both Reid and Curtain are a must in my eyes. In the sense we need a KPD soon badly.

But Curtain can not be at the expense of Reid.

Hence trading future picks

 

[Monsterdarlz]

Reid not stepping up is absolute bollocked he was country’s best underager far and away last season. BOG easily in one of the AFL academy games kicked 3 sausage rolls after 5 weeks off in the champs and was BOG against WA.

Can coast a bit I find but he definitely relishes the spotlight

 

[Chump Change]

Both Reid and Curtain are a must in my eyes. In the sense we need a KPD soon badly.

But Curtain can not be at the expense of Reid.

Hence trading future picks

I rate Curtin highly, but I don't think we need to be panicked into selling next year's first. We have Barrass and Bazzo. Bazzo is tracking nicely and he has a good size about him. We'll find a back up in the next few drafts with a R2 or R3 pick.

If we trade Barrass and get approx. #10, then we should try and find a way to get him. I think Obeanie mentioned swapping #10 and F1 for someone else's low pick for Curtin and F1. Trading Barrass out and Curtin in is my preferred scenario.

But if we don't trade Barrass we probably have to let him go and them scoop him up if wants to come home (if he fits our needs). Every year there are gun players we have to accept we will miss out on. The other thing is, without look at next year's draft, we're sort of ready to take a KPF with a top 5 pick. If you fiddle to much with F1 then we probably miss out on a "must have" next year.

 

[Obeanie1]

I have one issue with Reid and it's this simple and i've seen him a lot. He doesn't have that same innate drive that someone like Ginbey has.

I think i've said this before but the best way to make the comparison is with academia. When you are at lower levels and highly intelligent you don't have to study because you will naturally do well, sometimes even to the point of topping your class without studying.

But that same student then never learns to study effectively and then when they reach tiers of education where you absolutely have to study they fail to adapt. It becomes almost impossible to learn how to study effectively and get back ahead to where your talent level lies as you've already fallen behind.

The higher the level of competition the more i've seen this behaviour from Reid. He puts in a good quarter or beats up on weak opposition but when the going gets tough he generally finds a weaker opponent to bully. He's a bully and always has been even last year as an underager playing HB or FP he was stronger and read the ball better than his opponent and used that to exploit them.

No-one is naturally good enough that when stepping up to AFL level that they can just stand head and shoulders above top tier midfielders and bully them. You have to put the work in all the way. Now Darling was the same and was clearly bored when under older rules he could have been drafted at 17 and playing AFL instead of spending a year doing FA but playing footy waiting for it to happen. Now the real question is Reid lazy or is he just bored. Now as it only seems to show up the higher level the opponent I'd suggest he's lazy. Now i'm not saying he's outright lazy and this is deliberate, a lot of the time it's subconscious but this is why there are professional scouts and recruiters.

As it stands I would still draft Reid with pick 1 after bidding on Walter but the gap certainly isn't what it was at the start of the year and I no longer have Reid as the top prospect in the pool.

It's actually what impressed me with Wardlaw so much last year and why I rated him so highly particularly after the academy game. He was beaten by men in the first half and came back after half time and played in a completely different manner and was able to dominate against men. (it's not something i'd seen at that level before) It's why I rated him as a clear number 1, he was however a straight flight risk and would have been a terrible pick for West Coast and even worse for GWS.

As it stands I have it like this
1. Walter
2. Reid
3. Curtin

Also as far as i'm concerned trading out next years first round pick is pure idiocy. If we are chasing a dominant midfield as a club and I think it's something that will be required to win a premiership under the current AFL rules and also how they seem to be trending it would be absolutely foolish as the top 5 prospects all look like exceptional midfielders.

If you could give me Curtin, Delean and a future likely top pick for Pick 1 this year I would be all over it.

The top 5 mids next year arent they 1 SA kid and then 4 Vic Metro kids?

Trading our F1st with GWS could land Curtin this year and a likely pick 5 to 7 next year. No quality mids around 5 to 7 in 2024?

If Curtin is taken before 5 that means a McKercher or Watson or Duursma likely is there. Reid plus Duursma doesnt help rebuild our middield?

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

Don't like the idea of spending a top 10 pick on KPD, didn't have to do so for Gov, TB and Bazzo.

 

[Cornelius Roy]

With ladder positions staying the same I can’t see north passing up on Curtin at 3 after Reid and Walter. They’ve loaded up on mids between Simpkin, ldu, wardlaw, Powell, Phillips and have larkey and comben and will have the guy they picked at 19 last year as a smaller forward. The time is ripe for a KPD and they will get a beauty.

Even if we traded Barrass and offered that pick and 19 I think they say no and take Curtin.

Unfortunate but it leaves us in a position where we either take Curtin at 1 or my preference, Reid. If O’Sullivan is there at 19 take him instead.

 

[Hook461123]

Curtin having such a good game on Friday makes it harder for us to trade pick 1

With ladder positions staying the same I can’t see north passing up on Curtin at 3 after Reid and Walter. They’ve loaded up on mids between Simpkin, ldu, wardlaw, Powell, Phillips and have larkey and combed and will have the guy they picked at 19 last year as a smaller forward. The time is ripe for a KPD and they will get a beauty.

Even if we traded Barrass and offered that pick and 19 I think they take Curtin.

Unfortunate but it leaves us in a position where we either take Curtin at 1 or my preference, Reid. If O’Sullivan is there at 19 take him instead.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. If we want to split one and still get Curtin then North are probably the only option to trade with. I see either North or Hawks taking him before pick 5.

We love our pick trade downs but I really hope this year we just use our picks. Take Reid and the best slider at 19.
Need to get into king Nizzie’s ear and tell him how much of a marketing dream Reid is and how much money and media he is going to bring.

 

[bh90210fan]

Forget Curtin we won’t have a shot at him if we pick Reid, it’s O’Sullivan we might be able to get if Barrass leaves.

 

[Obeanie1]

Don't like the idea of spending a top 10 pick on KPD, didn't have to do so for Gov, TB and Bazzo.

Are Gov and Barrass not worth a top 10 pick in hindsight?

 

[CountryLad]

Both Reid and Curtain are a must in my eyes. In the sense we need a KPD soon badly.

But Curtain can not be at the expense of Reid.

Hence trading future picks

Just an observation on the kpd depth in this draft is that it’s very good.
I’d actually rate O’Sullivan and Murphy as better lock down defenders and marks. Patton is probably the best interceptor in the draft but lacks the height of the other two. Murphy did a great job on Walter after 1/4 time on the weekend and is rising I’d imagine on most draft boards. O’Sullivan has been solid all year. A. Reid is another who could project as a KPD at AFL level he has mainly played a Fwd/ruck though this year.

Curtin uses the ball better by foot than most in the draft that’s probably his greatest asset and is probably the best tall utility in the draft and Cleary very talented so I’m not talking him down just saying there may be better value if it’s simply a KPD that you are after.

I think if it’s only a kpd you are after, then if the club got its hands on a pick in the teens I think one of O’Sullivan, Murphy, Patton or A Reid would be available.

 

[Chump Change]

Are Gov and Barrass not worth a top 10 pick in hindsight?

Sure, but that's like going to the BMW showroom with a car ticketed at $120k and walking up to the salesman and going, "I'll give you $180".

You don't have to spend a top 10 draft pick on a KPD.
You generally do have to spend a top 10 draft pick on an elite mid.

So why would you ever spend a top 10 pick on a KPD?

** I'd pay top 10 for Curtain on the basis I think this draft drops off pretty quick, McKercher's out because he's a Taswegian, Walter is Academy, and Curtin does have KPF potential. But Gibcus, Busslinger etc. Not paying top 10.

 

[Hook461123]

Taking Reid and using the #1 pick also has intangibles.

Media hype
Marketing $
Swagger and confidence
A face for the next generation
Sell hope to the members and fans
Dent the media narrative of not drafting the top Vic players
Pressure to improve and create a good player environment to keep him

 

[CountryLad]

Sure, but that's like going to the BMW showroom with a car ticketed at $120k and walking up to the salesman and going, "I'll give you $180".

You don't have to spend a top 10 draft pick on a KPD.
You generally do have to spend a top 10 draft pick on an elite mid.

So why would you ever spend a top 10 pick on a KPD?

** I'd pay top 10 for Curtain on the basis I think this draft drops off pretty quick, McKercher's out because he's a Taswegian, Walter is Academy, and Curtin does have KPF potential. But Gibcus, Busslinger etc. Not paying top 10.

I don’t agree with McKercher being out. It would depend surely on the interviews clubs have with him. I’d imagine they would get a good idea from them on whether he is a flight risk or not for when Tassie come in.

 

[Chump Change]

I don’t agree with McKercher being out. It would depend surely on the interviews clubs have with him. I’d imagine they would get a good idea from them on whether he is a flight risk or not for when Tassie come in.

I think he drops 1 or 2 spots simply because he's a risk. Even if he says all the right things and has the best intentions, if Tasmania come knocking and offer him a big contract, that's a huge risk. A guy plays 50 games or so and is potentially starting to be a player, and he may go, and then you have to draft someone else in and wait 3 years.

I think he's a potential top 3 pick, but may slide a spot or too before the risk is worth it.

 

[Obeanie1]

I don’t agree with McKercher being out. It would depend surely on the interviews clubs have with him. I’d imagine they would get a good idea from them on whether he is a flight risk or not for when Tassie come in.

You think any of the Tassie kids will say 'Sure I'm off back home as soon as the Tassie team starts.'

Suggest they will all have a script to follow and one they will be practising before club interviews.

WC Phil will need to apply his dark art skills in body language to see who's telling people what they want to hear not what they really feel.

 

[Tugga27]

I was reasonably open to splitting, but the more I read, the more I want us now to take Reid.

Why trading No.1 pick might be wrong call


The man coaching Western Australia’s top teenage footballers has warned the Eagles to do their research before making the titanic decision on whether to trade this year’s No.1 pick.

Ex-North Melbourne development manager Ben Dyer, who is overseeing the Sandgropers in the AFL under-18 championships, watched Harley Reid – consensus the best player in this year’s draft – dominate against his team in Perth last Friday night.

Reid amassed an equal-game-high 26 disposals, 10 marks, five clearances and four inside 50s for Victoria Country, as well as kicking two goals from five scoring shots. That followed him gathering 19 disposals against WA last year.

“If you’re West Coast, it will be tough to overlook Harley Reid,” Dyer told Money Talks.

“He played against us last year, and was terrific as a bottom-ager. He’s got so much class and power, and he imposed himself on the game the other night as well.

“I’m no list manager, but if you’re going to split [the top pick] for local kids; you would want to make sure the local kids are going to get there at the picks you end up with.

“So, if it’s [top WA prospect Daniel] Curtin, you need to figure out how high he will go. If you split the pick, does it mean you still get him? That’s what the discussion will be around.”

The Eagles trail second-from-bottom North Melbourne by a game and almost 20 per cent, and are considered the club most likely to finish last. They split the No.2 selection last year to bring in two first-rounders instead, which they used on local products Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett.

 

[CountryLad]

I think he drops 1 or 2 spots simply because he's a risk. Even if he says all the right things and has the best intentions, if Tasmania come knocking and offer him a big contract, that's a huge risk. A guy plays 50 games or so and is potentially starting to be a player, and he may go, and then you have to draft someone else in and wait 3 years.

I think he's a potential top 3 pick, but may slide a spot or too before the risk is worth it.

Isn’t it a risk with every interstate based player that clubs are going to come knocking and offer a big contract? Vic clubs are going to come just as hard after Harley if we take him it’s just a matter of whether the clubs backs itself in to retain.

 

[Chris_6678]

I think its simple:

Finish first we get Reid.
Finish second we get Curtin.

Would be happy with either outcome.

Its the media that is making it like we HAVE to split to get 2 WA talents. Yes we did do it last year and it has seemed like a good idea at the time but this time it isnt so clear cut.

 

[Westend]

I was reasonably open to splitting, but the more I read, the more I want us now to take Reid.

Why trading No.1 pick might be wrong call


The man coaching Western Australia’s top teenage footballers has warned the Eagles to do their research before making the titanic decision on whether to trade this year’s No.1 pick.

Ex-North Melbourne development manager Ben Dyer, who is overseeing the Sandgropers in the AFL under-18 championships, watched Harley Reid – consensus the best player in this year’s draft – dominate against his team in Perth last Friday night.

Reid amassed an equal-game-high 26 disposals, 10 marks, five clearances and four inside 50s for Victoria Country, as well as kicking two goals from five scoring shots. That followed him gathering 19 disposals against WA last year.

“If you’re West Coast, it will be tough to overlook Harley Reid,” Dyer told Money Talks.

“He played against us last year, and was terrific as a bottom-ager. He’s got so much class and power, and he imposed himself on the game the other night as well.

“I’m no list manager, but if you’re going to split [the top pick] for local kids; you would want to make sure the local kids are going to get there at the picks you end up with.

“So, if it’s [top WA prospect Daniel] Curtin, you need to figure out how high he will go. If you split the pick, does it mean you still get him? That’s what the discussion will be around.”

The Eagles trail second-from-bottom North Melbourne by a game and almost 20 per cent, and are considered the club most likely to finish last. They split the No.2 selection last year to bring in two first-rounders instead, which they used on local products Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett.

Onya tuggs

 

[DanWCE]

I think its simple:

Finish first we get Reid.
Finish second we get Curtin.

Would be happy with either outcome.

Its the media that is making it like we HAVE to split to get 2 WA talents. Yes we did do it last year and it has seemed like a good idea at the time but this time it isnt so clear cut.

That's pending FA compo for McKay. North might get pick 1 and 2.

 

[Monocle]

Unfortunate but it leaves us in a position where we either take Curtin at 1 or my preference, Reid. If O’Sullivan is there at 19 take him instead.

Just an observation on the kpd depth in this draft is that’s it very good.

I think if it’s only a kpd you are after, then if the club got its hands on a pick in the teens I think one of O’Sullivan, Murphy, Patton or A Reid would be available.

I think Ollie Murphy at our current second round pick would be a great get if we just go Harley Reid at 1.

Murphy is a better mark than O’Sullivan who is a better interceptor. Murphy is a more traditional defender and he moves very well for. 200 cm KPP.
I may be in the minority on this one but O’Sullivan hasn’t yet wowed me to the point that I can see him producing the same sort of games at the next level.
His pack marking and spoiling has question marks on it for me. Great interceptor, picking plays off, however I would have liked to have seen him have a more physical presence in games.

Archer Reid has been a real tease this Championships he has had some moments, but in the main he has underwhelmed.

Patton has been very reliable and very good, but he is a third tall only, would make a great Hurn replacement.
He is an intriguing prospect and one that I suspect will slide out of the first round and someone will pick up a 200 game player.
He doesn’t play a sexy role and he is nowhere near the top tier in this cohort, however I think he is a “bust-proof” pick and will deliver value for whoever picks him up.

Been a really strange Champs apart from The Allies the other sides have been very inconsistent. SA the biggest disappointment for me, a down year for them as they are generally a team that will test you. SA had a distinct lack of quality KPP and Moir has had a really poor Champs. VM & VC has had patches of good form mixed with some poor periods with in games.
Allies have been super impressive and would be deserving winners.

 

[Chris_6678]

That's pending FA compo for McKay. North might get pick 1 and 2.

True. Fingers crossed he either stays or the AFL give them end of 1st rounder instead.

 

[Spooky17]