Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[eaglevision]

I don’t want to s**t all over your post, clearly a lot of effort went into it but that does not appeal to me at all.

Not the players you’ve selected per se but trading out pick 1 for some later first rounders that will slide further and further come draft night in the hopes that one of two specific players will still be available seems like low odds indeed.

If Nortn can offer pick 2 with 3 or GC pick 6 then I’m listening but to trade it out for essentially what will become picks equal to second rounders come draft night is too speculative for me.

Agree entirely. Excellent post and the spreadsheet is very helpful and appreciated, I just have a different philosophy on this year’s draft strategy. Keep the only uncompromised pick in the draft and take Reid but happy to do some wheeling and dealing with the other picks.

 

[BOND 007]

If, and it remains a pretty big if, the club decides to trade pick 1 it will be because in their opinion it gives a better overall draft result based on how they rank draftees and at what point in the draft they might be available

Depending on what happens during trade period we will have 4 or 5 spots to fill

If, by trading pick 1, we can get 3 or 4 substantially better players than those we can get by keeping 1 then that’s the trade off for forgoing Reid and taking a slightly (or significantly) inferior player at our first pick

Personally I want us to keep it simple and draft Reid but can keep an open mind that there could be a better alternative if another club gets reckless

We won’t trade pick 1 just to be “fair”. It’ll be because there’s an upside

And that's the best way to look at it

 

[bzparkes]

I find myself liking this post because we are very aligned.

I have long been advocating that I am listening to a Godfather Offer. What some people call Godfather is not what I call Godfather and I am not needing to reconcile the differences.

There is 1 thing the Norf recruiters have failed to do in recent years is to bring wow factor to the club. That is supposedly not the Shinboner way and quite frankly that is why they will never be sustained as a power club in Melbourne.

Harley has the wow factor. He will in the next 5 ears bring more bums on seats at the Docklands. Norf desperately need that. Optus will be full once West Coast is back in finals so there is less of a need.

As it stands now, Norf have got already picks 2, 14, 19, 40, 52 and 60 for a massive 5,447 points. I expect them to have pick 3 for McKay given the noise out of Melbourne. They then have for 2024 a pick likely in the bottom 4, picks 19 and 20 and their full range of R2 etc. They have picks and points to burn.

What will make West Coast sell?
A godfather offer - but what would that look like? Picks 2, 14 and 19? I expect they want later picks back from us so all assume all of 39, 53 and 58 which on face value buys them a pick in the late 20's. Why?

Norf would still have 1, 3, a mid teens pick, a pick in the 20's, 40, 52, 60. Their 2024 picks 19 and 20 will 100% use this year and probably buys you a pick in the early to mid teens this year.

Maybe I am overly suspicious that the AFL play games but I would not be surprised if Norf were told to buy hope for their supporters, and Harley does that.

We then go in with 2, 15, 19, 20, 34.

Pick 2 gets you the best pure midfielder in the draft by some distance. Harley is great and better than McKercher but he will not solve all our issues.

Eastcoasteagle first got me interested in Murphy as a genuine lock down full back. He replaces Barrass but less interested in intercepting than Tommy. I think we get him at 15.

Pick 19 is to be sold to Sydney so they get a bid in ahead of Cleary. We get back 23 and 31. I am thinking we have to give them 39 as well as 19.

Pick 20 - I am leaning to just taking Zakostelsky as our future CHB.. The combination of Bazzo, Murphy and ZZ as the talls with Chesser, Burgiel, etc as the fast moving running half backs feels good.

Pick 23 - Jack Delean. He is a talented small forward and I think will make it.

Pick 31 - Mitch Edwards. Yes he has a question mark over him but the AFL new age rucks need to be over 205 cm and he is 207 cm and proven he can compete. I am agreeing on Bailey Williams being a fwd/ruck, I think Barnett could be our KPF and chop out ruck and while I like the improvement in Jack Williams, he is still a long shot to be AFL KPF.

So we walk away with:
McKercher - a balanced goal kicking mid
Murphy - a lock down KPD
Zakostelsky - a KPD who can both intercept and lock down
Delean - small forward
M Edwards - ruck

Add to that possibly Flynn and Brockman who we get cheap.


Here is our new look profile. I have one more than allowed so we lose one of Collard, Baker, Dewar or Hine-Bastion if you want exact numbers.
View attachment 1816970
View attachment 1816967

Good post and good reasoning, however we could probably get creative by taking Reid with one and looking to bring in a F2 next year to get an extra look at the talls this draft.

We've split our first rounder 2 drafts in a row now and with a clear #1(available to draft anyway), it's probably time we take advantage of the likely 1 opportunity we'll have during this cycle at such a player.

Can always split the first again next year to get an extra first rounder in a much more even draft pool.

 

[pantskyle]

Also just to corroborate my previous post here's a photo from the Pioneers' facebook page from last night:

And this photo of Harley is taken by the media coordinator who I know well and I am literally probably a foot from being in the right-hand side of the photo. You can see Oskar Smartt and his mullet (which he was required to show the entire room when called upon by one of the assistant coaches) on the other side of the table and RJ Watson (another Pioneers midfielder) to the left of Oscar.
The lady closest to the phone camera is Bella Ayre, a previous AFLW player, and current assistant coach to the Girls U18 team.

You have nothing to prove at all, **** the naysayers. Means nothing.

 

[kranky al]

Yeah I don't get it.

"Give us pick 1 or we pick Curtin!!!!"

Ok?...

Ok I guess it’s curtins for you

 

[kranky al]

Was that the Embley scrub kick game

Yes indeed.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Good post and good reasoning, however we could probably get creative by taking Reid with one and looking to bring in a F2 next year to get an extra look at the talls this draft.

We've split our first rounder 2 drafts in a row now and with a clear #1(available to draft anyway), it's probably time we take advantage of the likely 1 opportunity we'll have during this cycle at such a player.

Can always split the first again next year to get an extra first rounder in a much more even draft pool.

There are 5 in the running next year.

Smillie
O'Sullivan
Jagar
Moraes
Draper.

If we have pick 1 next year then splitting it to still have access to any of these and another makes sense. Although ,(talking myself out of it now) O'Sullivan I see as the clear fav for 1. He will be a match winner at AFL level.

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[AsterixTheGaul]

Thanks for the detailed post mate.

A couple of quick points/questions.

Could we not still probably pick up ZZ and Delean with our current picks if we take HR instead? (probably Edwards/Goad too)

It seems to broadly boil down to McKercher and Murphy vs Reid and Patton/Morris/Shoenmaker type.

I'm not quite as sold but I know you guys all really rate Murphy.

* and you probably know how much I love McK too.

Fair call to classify it as McKercher + Murphy + a late R1/early R2 OR Reid.

The issue about asking for 2 and 3 is that I do not want Curtin at 2 or 3. I like him but we have far greater long term needs than a Birchall clone. At the start of this year, I had hoped he would develop more of a high roaming CHF or a creative powerhouse at CHB. His overhead marking is not up to it and hence I call him Birchall mark II. A great player, great distributor but not high on my agenda.

Let me just reiterate - McKercher is a balanced goal kicking mid who has played that role and that way for the last 2 years plus. Our midfield in 3 years time with McKercher, Ginbey, Hewett and whichever mid we get in 2024 with our top 4 pick will be brilliant. Add to that outside run we have with Chesser, Bough, Burgiel, etc plus some muscle from Culley and some chop out from Long, we look set. The conversations will not be about whether we have the quality and types to win contested football.

I am hearing that ZZ is rising up boards - gone from I want him with our R3 to a likely mid second rounder. This will likely continue post the combine. Delean is right in that spot for our current R2 and I rate him. I expect both to be gone when we look at our picks 34 and 39.

Shoenmaker is a pass for me. More a flanker and not a KPD. We have Bazzo who may still make the CHB or at worst 3rd tall Schoey type.

Where I sit with Barnett is that I think he is a genuine KPP who can ruck. If we believe he will make it as a ruck, ignore Edwards. If we believe he is more the KPD, then ignore Murphy. I am hoping he is the CHF to partner Oscar. Not sure how much is hope verses expected development.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

There are 5 in the running next year.

Smillie
O'Sullivan
Jagar
Moraes
Draper.

If we have pick 1 next year then splitting it to still have access to any of these and another makes sense. Although ,(talking myself out of it now) O'Sullivan I see as the clear fav for 1. He will be a match winner at AFL level.

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Exactly how I see the top 5 - order may differ slightly.

I think we will be finish bottom 4 and hence one of the above will be available. I do not want us to drop back past 4 so a slip from 3 or 4 feel unlikely.

If you think we will be dead set last next year, there is a chance to split it but those holding 2, 3 or 4 are not likely to trade up given the difference in quality.

 

[Spoon_Man]

I'd love it if we just came out the day after the Combine (the day the trade period starts) and say we're taking Reid at pick #1. Then fly him over, get him into a new Audi Q7, sign him up at Lake Karrinyup before fronting the media with Simmo and Trev..

 

[ArdentEagle]

Fair call to classify it as McKercher + Murphy + a late R1/early R2 OR Reid.

The issue about asking for 2 and 3 is that I do not want Curtin at 2 or 3. I like him but we have far greater long term needs than a Birchall clone. At the start of this year, I had hoped he would develop more of a high roaming CHF or a creative powerhouse at CHB. His overhead marking is not up to it and hence I call him Birchall mark II. A great player, great distributor but not high on my agenda.

Let me just reiterate - McKercher is a balanced goal kicking mid who has played that role and that way for the last 2 years plus. Our midfield in 3 years time with McKercher, Ginbey, Hewett and whichever mid we get in 2024 with our top 4 pick will be brilliant. Add to that outside run we have with Chesser, Bough, Burgiel, etc plus some muscle from Culley and some chop out from Long, we look set. The conversations will not be about whether we have the quality and types to win contested football.

I am hearing that ZZ is rising up boards - gone from I want him with our R3 to a likely mid second rounder. This will likely continue post the combine. Delean is right in that spot for our current R2 and I rate him. I expect both to be gone when we look at our picks 34 and 39.

Shoenmaker is a pass for me. More a flanker and not a KPD. We have Bazzo who may still make the CHB or at worst 3rd tall Schoey type.

Where I sit with Barnett is that I think he is a genuine KPP who can ruck. If we believe he will make it as a ruck, ignore Edwards. If we believe he is more the KPD, then ignore Murphy. I am hoping he is the CHF to partner Oscar. Not sure how much is hope verses expected development.

That's kind of why I'd like us to be aggressive and bring future picks into play. Imagine getting both Reid and McKercher.
A lot of the top lads next year are metro mummies boys.

We could have Reid, Mckercher, ZZ, Delean/Collard, and Morris as a darling replacement. How good are his hands BTW.
Plus NGA Rooks/Flynn and Brockman.

Failing that...Maybe grab Windsor with an F2 instead?

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

They also think they have all the power to just draft Reid, because we realllllly want Curtin apparently.
They want Rawlings to stare down the Eagles and not blink and give us a crappy deal for the number 1 pick.

It's just bizarre the trains of thought that goes on over there, it's like a cult

Up until 2 months ago, we had not even visited Curtin at his home. His father has said he thinks Daniel is a top 10 pick, and is not expecting to be a top 3.

Ralph and the Vic media have been very strong that we want Curtin. I am not hearing the same.

As the Pieman said last year, there are a lot of lads that he wanted to take with each pick. He was probably asked "What about Curtin" and he likely replied "Sure do, I would like to draft him". Vic media - West Coast love love Curtin!!!


As a Tiger's fan. I have been following Curtin closely for 2 years and want him to succeed. In terms of talent, I am now placing his much more along the line of Caddy as more like pick 7 to 10.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Pair McKercher up with this year's O'Neill and Foley.

 

[6285sutto]

We should just trade pick 1 for a host of slow burner draftees, win 2 games next year (against Freo), get a new coach at seasons end and apply for a compensation package from AFL to get two additional first rounders for the next 3 years... Nek minute team of champions.

 

[ROO DOGG]

Strike I need to avoid the North draft thread.
A few of their posters are disparaging me personally.
Apparently I'm a psychopath.

Keep mind F##king them, they are fragile.

 

[UseR2006]

We should just trade pick 1 for a host of slow burner draftees, win 2 games next year (against Freo), get a new coach at seasons end and apply for a compensation package from AFL to get two additional first rounders for the next 3 years... Nek minute team of champions.

Nah that would just make us North Melbourne.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

That's kind of why I'd like us to be aggressive and bring future picks into play. Imagine getting both Reid and McKercher.
A lot of the top lads next year are metro mummies boys.

We could have Reid, Mckercher, ZZ, Delean/Collard, and Morris as a darling replacement. How good are his hands BTW.
Plus NGA Rooks/Flynn and Brockman.

Failing that...Maybe grab Windsor with an F2 instead?

Not sure how many are metro mummies boys. I suspect we back our self into one of the top mids and do what we did with Shuey and Gaff .

I don't know why but I am not a Windsor fan. Perhaps because he plays a lot like Chesser. Great pace, great endurance, great skills, more outside but does not get a lot of it. we have one, we don't need 2.

Collard - I am not blinking to pull the trigger early with him. I personally expect he will be there with the Port R3 or our R4. If he is not, then we wait 2 years and do a rinse repeat like Brockman. Skills galore but he jury is out whether he will make it as a professional athlete and SportBet are likely offering 500:1 that he makes it with an interstate club.

I like Logan Morris but see him as a 3rd tall. Last height check - he was listed as 191 cm. That is roughly Jack but I think Maric is our Jack replacement.

 

[ArdentEagle]

Not sure how many are metro mummies boys. I suspect we back our self into one of the top mids and do what we did with Shuey and Gaff .

I don't know why but I am not a Windsor fan. Perhaps because he plays a lot like Chesser. Great pace, great endurance, great skills, more outside but does not get a lot of it. we have one, we don't need 2.

Collard - I am not blinking to pull the trigger early with him. I personally expect he will be there with the Port R3 or our R4. If he is not, then we wait 2 years and do a rinse repeat like Brockman. Skills galore but he jury is out whether he will make it as a professional athlete and SportBet are likely offering 500:1 that he makes it with an interstate club.

I like Logan Morris but see him as a 3rd tall. Last height check - he was listed as 191 cm. That is roughly Jack but I think Maric is our Jack replacement.

To me, Windsor looks both athlete and footballer where Chesser more athlete trying to learn how to play football.
Looks to be a lot smarter on field and running patterns/game sense way better. (It is hard to tell from just vids though)

Collard is a worry with mindset but man how good is he skill wise. Could Delean play further up? Would Sanchez be a better balance for Collard and Brockman?

Morris I suspect would play deeper than Maric (although shorter), where he could use those amazing hands and body work. Maric further up field with that nous and lovely kick. (why not both gif)

 

[amazingjoshy]

Strike I need to avoid the North draft thread.
A few of their posters are disparaging me personally.
Apparently I'm a psychopath.

Just demonstrates how backwards this site can be at times

Out of all the "inside info" stuff posted on here, you're one of the only ones I've seen back it up with any sort of evidence of where it actually came from, yet others are believed at the drop of a hat.

I appreciate the info fwiw

 

[bzparkes]

Just demonstrates how backwards this site can be at times

Out of all the "inside info" stuff posted on here, you're one of the only ones I've seen back it up with any sort of evidence of where it actually came from, yet others are believed at the drop of a hat.

I appreciate the info fwiw

Confirmation bias.

People only take note of what confirms their current beliefs.

If the Norf board's general belief is that Reid refuses to leave WA and is desperate to get to Norf, then they'll just shoot down anything contrarian, despite how legit it is.

 

[shooshka]

Hmmm I read that as "I'll go and if I hate it in WA I'll head home"

Hopefully he contributes to a quick bounce back in fortunes.



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On reading the whole article (and noting the random insertion of the word ‘possibly’ into multiple sentences) I would hazard a guess that he was coached by his manager pre interview.

Be positive about moving, but not definitive as there is always a chance the pick is traded (or the million to one chance that he isn’t picked first).

So he would get into an answer, remember not to be too committed to an outcome, and say ‘probably’ then continue with the answer.


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[Eastern Rangers]

Reading back over these last few pages, the level of anxiety on this and North Melbourne's board is palpable.

North's recruiting and list management and head recruiter both used to work for West Coast and have strong relationships with the team at West Coast. While people on here might have doubts about talent identification, we won't be getting screwed on the trade table.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Barrett can eat a fat one.

Yep, a big fat chode.

** that word is actually in the dictionary.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

Watch rayner tomorrow when he floats through the midfield.

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My family get to pick a player each to win the norm Smith. I'm probably going Neale, but seriously been thinking about Rayner. I think he's a star and could kick 4 or 5.

 

[Keys]

Yep, a big fat chode.

** that word is actually in the dictionary.

Next to a photo of Barrett