Prediction Where will our Goals come from in 2023?

[DocT]

OK Team BF Dockers, how are we going to average 100 points/game in 2023?

Starting from the stats for 22 HnA games in 2022 I've projected 2023 possibilities.

I've guessed with an optimistic view of injuries, opportunity and development. I haven't taken our harder draw into account.

What do you think? Do I need to take my purple glasses off or am I being reasonable for a Freo Tragic?

HOME AND AWAY GOALS 2022 VS 2023
PLAYER	Total Goals 2022	Av Goals 2022	Total Goals 2023	Change
Lobb, Rory	34​	1.7	0	-34
Schultz, Lachie	28	1.3	28	0
Frederick, Michael	23	1.3	28	5
Walters, Michael	23	1.2	15	-8
Taberner, Matt	23	1.8	40	17
Banfield, Bailey	18	0.8	8	-10
Brayshaw, Andrew	11	0.5	15	4
Switkowski, Sam	11	0.8	16	5
Darcy, Sean	10	0.5	15	5
O'Driscoll, Nathan	9	0.8	9	0
Colyer, Travis	9	0.5	0	-9
Logue, Griffin	5	0.4	0	-5
Acres, Blake	6	0.3	0	-6
Brodie, Will	6	0.3	6	0
Fyfe, Nat	6	0.9	40	34
Aish, James	5	0.2	5	0
Mundy, David	4	0.2	0	-4
Serong, Caleb	4	0.2	8	4
Amiss, Jye	2	1.3	22	20
Clark, Jordan	3	0.1	6	3
Meek, Lloyd	2	0.3	0	-2
Tucker, Darcy	2	0.1	0	-2
Cox, Brennan	1	0	1	0
Erasmus, Neil	1	0.2	5	4
Henry, Liam	1	0.1	5	4
Pearce, Alex	1	0	1	0
Treacy, Josh	1	0.3	25	24
Walker, Brandon	1	0	1	0
Young, Hayden	1	0	1	0
Chapman, Heath	0	0	0	0
Crowden, Mitch	0	0	0	0
Hamling, Joel	0	0	0	0
Hughes, Ethan	0	0	0	0
Ryan, Luke	0	0	0	0
Wilson, Nathan	0	0	0	0
Jackson, Luke	0	0	20	20
O'Meara, Jaegar	0	0	10	10
Sturt, Sam	0	0	10	10
TOTAL	251		340	89
AVERAGE/GAME	11.4		14.8	​

 

[Quazar]

I'm ready to go Boss, I've got a 50 goal season in me!!!

On a slightly more serious note....dunno. I think one of Fyfe or Tabs, if fit throughout needs to hit 50+, probably both to give us a reasonable shout at the Big Dance. I also think one of Schultz or Freddy can eclipse 30 goals or score more than last year, hopefully even both. Not sure on Jackson getting 20, but that would be handy. Only 15 for Walters?!

It's hard, we're not blessed with a Hawkins/Cameron type duo. You look at their top 3 scorers compared to ours last year. Yikes!

 

[Quazar]

Also forgot to add, Fyfe has kicked at most 24 in 2014 - obviously as a mid, but it's possibly asking a lot for him to kick around 50 even if fully fit...I'll guess we'll see....we deffo need some of our smaller forwards to come on a bit more scoring-wise. Maybe Switta pushing upwards of 20+ and Walters up around 30. Treacy could also be a factor, he looks leaner, meaner but ready to elevate to the next level. Availability will also be key

 

[Square Peg]

There's a small but nevertheless real possibility Fyfe is about to blow the whole comp up as a forward, like 50 goals minimum. There are very few defenders who are going to be able to go with him if it all clicks. It's only a small possibility because 1) he has to stay fit for the season; 2) Tabs, Jackson and the other dummies have to get out of his way when he's commanding the ball; 3) his goal kicking has to stand up under pressure. But it could be a transformational event.

 

[Quazar]

There's a small but nevertheless real possibility Fyfe is about to blow the whole comp up as a forward, like 50 goals minimum. There are very few defenders who are going to be able to go with him if it all clicks. It's only a small possibility because 1) he has to stay fit for the season; 2) Tabs, Jackson and the other dummies have to get out of his way when he's commanding the ball; 3) his goal kicking has to stand up under pressure. But it could be a transformational event.

 

[Nothing]

Our goals will come off our boot

 

[Mr Cheese]

I think we end up surprising a lot of people.

As has been said, Fyfe could be a monster. On paper has it all; great contested mark, reasonably quick (especially for a tall), probably the #1 ground ball playing forward, actually a good set shot (just gotta beat those yips) and a good/very good shot from open play. Honestly worth $50 as a Coleman roughy. Not expecting it, but wouldn't be massively surprised either.

Around him Tabs is a 2 goal a game fwd when fit, Jackson I think can improve to 1/1.5 a game, and then Treacy, Amiss and Sturt are more than handy. Obviously they aren't all playing at once, but that's some real depth there. The smalls are also better than is made out. Schulz and Freddie are 30+ goal a year smalls, Switta will be close too if he stays fit and if Walters is back to 2019 form, watch out. Finally there is the mighty Banners who's good for 4 off the bench.

Add goals from the wing (thanks NOD), the midfield and resting ruck, and I think we might approach the 100 average. Given our defence lets in about 65 a game, should be a good year.

On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[holy diver]

Pray to St Clive

 

[pK75]

IMO we don’t need Fyfe (or anyone else) kicking 50+ goals, we need 5+ players kicking 30+ goals each, Shooter got 30 last year and Frederick 28. So I’d pencil them both in, if Fyfe and Tabs both stay fit they’re good for 30+ we need one or two more to step up, whether it’s Treacy, Sturt, Amiss or Walters doesn’t really matter.
It’s much harder for defenders to structure up when they don’t have a primary target to stop, possibly why Carlton didn’t make the eight despite having two of the best forwards in the game, teams knew if they could stop Curniw and McKay they were a good chance of winning the game.

 

[Square Peg]

You can win a flag without a forward kicking at least 40 goals a year, but it virtually never happens. Maybe the Bulldogs in 2016 never had a 40-50 goal forward but I can't think of any others in recent memory.? History says you need one

 

[Alfonz]

You can win a flag without a forward kicking at least 40 goals a year, but it virtually never happens. Maybe the Bulldogs in 2016 never had a 40-50 goal forward but I can't think of any others in recent memory.? History says you need one

Yep. Even the Dogs had Stringer and Dickson who both kicked 40 plus in 2016 (and 50 plus the year before) and Boyd happened to play like a 50 goal forward on the day.

 

[DocT]

I'm ready to go Boss, I've got a 50 goal season in me!!!

On a slightly more serious note....dunno. I think one of Fyfe or Tabs, if fit throughout needs to hit 50+, probably both to give us a reasonable shout at the Big Dance. I also think one of Schultz or Freddy can eclipse 30 goals or score more than last year, hopefully even both. Not sure on Jackson getting 20, but that would be handy. Only 15 for Walters?!

It's hard, we're not blessed with a Hawkins/Cameron type duo. You look at their top 3 scorers compared to ours last year. Yikes!

15 for Walters? Yes, on the low side but his injury start to the season is not promising. Over the past 3 seasons he's played 51 and kicked 54.
My most optimistic is Tabs - past 3 seasons played 45 and kicked 89. I've optimistically got him down for 20 games which he has never done before.
If Fyfe stays fit and stays forward then I reckon 40 goals is at the lowest end of expectations.
I'm bullish on Freddy - 28 last year and entering the 'hit your straps' 4th AFL season.
Darcy - I've given him 5 more on the basis that he will spend more time forward now LJ is here.

We should be confident in our young list. Here's some more numbers:
GOALS PER TEAM FROM PLAYERS BORN AFTER 1/1/2000, leading goal kicker and number of players kicked 10+):

Freo - 144 (Frederick 37, 7 players 10+ goals)

WCE - 21 (Bailey 10, 1 player 10+)

Carlton - 82 (Walsh 31, 4 players 10+)

Hawks - 92 (Koschitzke 45, 2 players 10+)

St K - 144 (King 112, 2 players 10+)

Pies - 135 (Ginnipig 46, 3 players 10+)

Melb - 125 (Kossie 88, 3 players 10+)

Adel - 192 (Rankine 57, 6 players 10+)

Bris - 32 (Coleman 12, 2 players 10+)

Syd - 168 (Blakey/Gulden 32, 6 players 10+)

Summary: our younglings are doing great, we have multiple avenues to goal AND Amiss is not on this list yet!

 

[ubiquitous226]

I'll go out on a limb and say the vast majority of them will come off a boot.

 

[Purple Suit]

You can win a flag without a forward kicking at least 40 goals a year, but it virtually never happens. Maybe the Bulldogs in 2016 never had a 40-50 goal forward but I can't think of any others in recent memory.? History says you need one

2020, no one kicked 50 goals and Riewoldt only kicked 33 although less games.

2018, no one kicked 50 goals for WC.

It's all about spread of goal kickers these days and we have that covered. Even Geelong had 2/3 dominate forwards rather than just one. Carlton have got the Coleman medalist for the past two season and not made finals.

 

[manpurple]

Looking at the data I am surprised by how low the average season score is for grand final winners. In the last 20 years only three teams averaged over 72 (12 goals) and 4 teams averaged less than 60 (10 goals). If we we work on a target of 11 goals a game how do I anticipate it will split out.

Lock players likely to maintain their average (4.4)
Tabs - 1.8
Shultz - 1.3
Swita - 0.8
Darcy - 0.5 (Ruck)

Mid field Contributions (2.5)
Serong, Brayshaw, Aish, JOM, NOD, Clark, Broady

This means we need to see 4.1 from the following.
Fyfe (0.9 last year) - If he remains fit we need his out put to exceed 1.2 as he makes up the difference between Lob and Jackson
Jackson (0.5) - This is significantly less than Lob's 1.7 and he should not be considered as a like for like replacement
Amiss (1.3) - Unlikely to play every game, but the best of the "new forwards"
Treacy (0.3) - Unlikely to play every game and needs to return to his 2021 figures of 0.9
Sturt (0) - Didn't play last year but averaged 1.3 (2020) and 1.0 (2021) and we would hope he returns to these numbers
Fredrick (1.3) - Injured at the moment but we would hope for improvement to 1.5 give his youth.

So assuming 6 fwds, 1 ruck and 1 bench slot have to score 8.5 and the lock players are 3 fwds 1 ruck. We need Fyfe and Jackson to score 1.7 leaving the two remaining slots to score 2.4. Doable assuming the other four come on as predicted. We are more likely to see points (un assessed here) account for a goal to get us home.

 

[Square Peg]

2020, no one kicked 50 goals and Riewoldt only kicked 33 although less games.

2018, no one kicked 50 goals for WC.

It's all about spread of goal kickers these days and we have that covered. Even Geelong had 2/3 dominate forwards rather than just one. Carlton have got the Coleman medalist for the past two season and not made finals.

2020 was the covid year with markedly reduced number of games and duration of quarters. It's irrelevant

 

[anchor man]

I think the answer could lay with Nat Fyfe. He will play the forward position like he plays mid. Hard at the ball, harassing backmen, causing turn over. His marking will cause problems for all teams. He will bring the smaller quicker forwards into play more often. They have to be well aware of what Fyfe is providing them with. He will be bullocking, winning the ball and feeding it off.
Also our miss will be pumping the ball in from clearances, again bringing into play our small miss, IF they learn to sit at the base of packs.
We will find out early how Jackson fits up forward. He may play the similar role to Fyfe. Again bringing the small forwards into play.
I am not as concerned as many are.

 

[DocT]

I'll go out on a limb and say the vast majority of them will come off a boot.

Any boot in particular? Any boot will do?

 

[DocT]

I think the answer could lay with Nat Fyfe. He will play the forward position like he plays mid. Hard at the ball, harassing backmen, causing turn over. His marking will cause problems for all teams. He will bring the smaller quicker forwards into play more often. They have to be well aware of what Fyfe is providing them with. He will be bullocking, winning the ball and feeding it off.
Also our miss will be pumping the ball in from clearances, again bringing into play our small miss, IF they learn to sit at the base of packs.
We will find out early how Jackson fits up forward. He may play the similar role to Fyfe. Again bringing the small forwards into play.
I am not as concerned as many are.

Yeah, Mungo like.
Maybe we could postulate that for X factor effect on the forward line as a whole Fyfe is 'Buddy-esque' There's so much potential to give other fwds opportunities even though they might not be recognised as 'goal assists'. The missing link to our forward structure may no longer be missing. WE NEED A FIT FYFE.

 

[DocT]

Pray to St Clive

Perfect picture. Prayers underway.

 

[Joose]

I am tipping Nat to have a breakout year.. as a forward.

Has all the tools . just needs to accept his role and commit to it fully. There will be less wear and tear on his body and even his kicking will improve. If he stays fit then I see no reason why a 50+ goals season is not in the offing.

 

[SupermanCapes]

I think the reason that Fyfe could go bananas this year is the same reason he struggled the last couple of years.

He's so driven once he focuses on something that the indecision of 2021 and 2022 around where he played (when he was fit) meant he wasn't particularly effective (remember the whole "the forward experiment is over" fiasco, with JL reigning him back in like 2 days later).

Now that he's settled within himself that he's a forward, he seems to be bringing that old dog-on-a-bone intensity to becoming the absolute best forward he possibly can - same as he did when he went from a skinny HFF to the best mid in the comp.

 

[Alfonz]

2020, no one kicked 50 goals and Riewoldt only kicked 33 although less games.

2018, no one kicked 50 goals for WC.

It's all about spread of goal kickers these days and we have that covered. Even Geelong had 2/3 dominate forwards rather than just one. Carlton have got the Coleman medalist for the past two season and not made finals.

On top of what was said above about 2020 being COVID impacted ... Riewoldt and Lynch were #4 and #5 in the rankings.

As for 2018, Darling kicked 48 and Kennedy kicked 43 from 14 games.

Odd comment on Geelong ... those 3 had 67, 65, 53 ... which is exactly the point of the post you are trying to refute.

An spread of people who kick say 20 or 30 goals each is not going to cut the mustard unless there are a couple of 40-50+ guys operating above the rest.

 

[Purple Suit]

On top of what was said above about 2020 being COVID impacted ... Riewoldt and Lynch were #4 and #5 in the rankings.

As for 2018, Darling kicked 48 and Kennedy kicked 43 from 14 games.

Odd comment on Geelong ... those 3 had 67, 65, 53 ... which is exactly the point of the post you are trying to refute.

An spread of people who kick say 20 or 30 goals each is not going to cut the mustard unless there are a couple of 40-50+ guys operating above the rest.

I read the initial post wrong and thought it said 50 goals, not 40. My point though is one big goal kicker isn't needed, you need multiple. The less goals per player, the more you need. If we have 4-5 on 30-40 goals it would be fine.

The stats on the premiers are also slightly skewed as they have usually won more games than anybody so a fair chance they have more goals. If we had of played like the Bulldogs 2016 and won the flag last year, we probably would have had Lobb on 44, Shultz 35, Freddie 32, Walters 30 and we'd be saying it all worked.

Our forward line isn't that far off imo.

 

[arsesmart]

[Fyfe] just needs to accept his role and commit to it fully.

Now that he's settled within himself that he's a forward

The coaches really need to stay absolutely and totally 100% committed to Fyfe forward til at least 1/2 or 3/4 mark of the season, if not the whole of this season. Apprentice someone else into the midfield if there's a need for older players there (Aish, Schultz, & Switkowski already running around with the mids at times). Jackson's mobility, ruck or no, also gives a lot of assurance as far as getting dynamic big bodies to throw weight around in the midfield.

But Fyfe laser-focused on his forward craft without any parachutes, through thick and thin, will pay off.