Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[Xtreme]

Bad time to use the Hulkamania example after what happened on Tuesday

HE was Hollywood Hulk Hogan at that moment

 

[Mr Meow]

Interesting about Dogs 2016
7th place but as you say only a game off top4

Very rarely you get a super even season at the top. 2016's top 7 were very bunched together, just like the top 7 of 2024. You could jumble up the top 7 teams in most orders those seasons and people wouldn't bat an eyelid.

It could happen again in 2025 but it isn't common.

 

[TheUnicorn]

Carlton finish higher but Hawthorn will be more of a threat for the flag.

 

[Fadge]

Both sides similar finishing position after H&A

Arr0w has 12 teams finishing between 5th and 8th...

 

[Fadge]

The whole point of playing this sport is to get as far as possible.

Making top 4 is making the prelims or further, there's really no debate to be had here.

A team being in top 4 for most of the year and not even making the prelims is not a top 4 team, because... you guessed it, they didn't make the top 4.

To say otherwise is a waste of time.

But they did.

The top 4 team played in a Qualifying Final, and gave themselves a big chance at genuinely contending for the premiership.

The 5th team played in an Elimination Final, and gave themselves the slimmest of chances of contending for the premiership.

 

[Arr0w]

Arr0w has 12 teams finishing between 5th and 8th...

Could you name them for me?

 

[Thrawn]

But they did.

The top 4 team played in a Qualifying Final, and gave themselves a big chance at genuinely contending for the premiership.

The 5th team played in an Elimination Final, and gave themselves the slimmest of chances of contending for the premiership.

They didn't reach the final 4, none of what you say is relevant.

You have a greater chance at contending making a prelim than bundling out before it, might want to check your math there.

 

[Thrawn]

Incorrect, context matters. Carlton are not aspiring to have a miraculous run of finals out of nowhere. It's time to be a proper top 4 team. 13 H&A win seasons are not a platform for premierships - find me examples in this finals format.

As I explained with Brisbane, they were coming off the back of a grand final and a handful of top 4 finishes. They were very finals hardened and were roughly a top 4 team in the comp for 5 years preceding 2025. If Carlton go on a similar run, then yes in a few years they would be a chance at a flag from 5th-8th.

So there is really only one side that has done it 5th-8th in this finals format without being heavily credentialed heading into the season: 2016 Bulldogs. Around 95% of the time you are going to need to do it the conventional ways: from the top 4, or from 5th-8th after having a bunch of top 4 finishes, prelims and a GF appearance already in the bank. Carlton have not had a Brisbane 2019-2023 run behind them.

It is not incorrect. The context here is where a team finishes in that year.

A team who was super consistent in the previous year but fail to make a prelim the next, due to injury, form etc aren't a top 4 side that year because they didn't reach that far. If they were good enough in that year, then they would've made the prelims. I never said they were platforms, I said if you're a top 4 side of X year, you have to make the prelims. You are ignoring the team's finishing position.

Of course I'd love Carlton to be finishing in the top four in the H&A season, but the fact remains in 2023 they got further than any other team bar three others. What other teams performances were in previous years leading up to that, does not change that fact.

 

[Fadge]

They didn't reach the final 4, none of what you say is relevant.

You have a greater chance at contending making a prelim than bundling out before it, might want to check your math there.

Melbourne in 2023 - if they beat Collingwood in the Qualifying Final they become premiership favourites. They lost by 7 points.

GWS in 2024 - They beat Sydney in the Qualifying Final, they get a home Preliminary Final. They were 20 points up at 3/4 time and lost by a goal.

Both teams had a greater chance at contending for the premiership than Carlton did in 2023 for example, given the difficulty of Carlton's preliminary final match-up.

Hence why I rate GWS as genuine flag contenders in 2024 (they lost by slim margins to both Grand Finalists), despite not making a Preliminary Final, and don't rate Carlton as premiership contenders in 2023, despite the fact they made a Preliminary Final they were never going to win...

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Melbourne in 2023 - if they beat Collingwood in the Qualifying Final they become premiership favourites. They lost by 7 points.

GWS in 2024 - They beat Sydney in the Qualifying Final, they get a home Preliminary Final. They were 20 points up at 3/4 time and lost by a goal.

Both teams had a greater chance at contending for the premiership than Carlton did in 2023 for example, given the difficulty of Carlton's preliminary final match-up.

Hence why I rate GWS as genuine flag contenders in 2024 (they lost by slim margins to both Grand Finalists), despite not making a Preliminary Final, and don't rate Carlton as premiership contenders in 2023, despite the fact they made the Preliminary Final...

Carlton who beat Melbourne (who apparently would have been premiership favourites if they beat the Pies) end up losing a prelim final by less than 3 goals but weren't considered contenders because hocus pocus Fadgey magic.

Go troll somewhere else, there's a banter thread for a reason.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Didn't the eagles get to choose between the Hawthorn and Carlton first round picks next year as part of the Barrass trade, and they chose the hawks one?
I'd say that's the best indicator - actual professionals in the industry, given the choice, are favouring Carlton to finish higher

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Didn't the eagles get to choose between the Hawthorn and Carlton first round picks next year as part of the Barrass trade, and they chose the hawks one?
I'd say that's the best indicator - actual professionals in the industry, given the choice, are favouring Carlton to finish higher

While I'd like to agree, this is the same team that traded pick 3 for Matt Owies and a couple of mid range first rounders...

But yes, I think that's pretty much the reason this thread was sparked in the first place.

 

[RCAB]

normally you'd say that people have short memories.... but the opposite appears when assesssing Carlton, it appears people have long memories.

 

[Taper]

normally you'd say that people have short memories.... but the opposite appears when assesssing Carlton, it appears people have long memories.

I'm old enough to remember Carlton sacking six head coaches.
People say they'll sack Voss if 2025 is another mediocre season, but Brian Cook won't let it happen given he's never sacked a coach in his 35 years working in football administration at the top level.