Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[WalshistheGOAT]

I recall Worpel was second MVP the entire AFL earlier in 2024 champion data
He’s not even in this conversation

I don't think anybody on earth, blind or able would genuinely believe Worpel was the 2nd best player in the comp for any stretch of time.

Just another blunder on Champion Data's long list of botched calls.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Am I reading this right - there are Hawthorn supporters are saying that Newcombe and Day are in the same realm of talent as Patrick Cripps?

Incredibly... Yes

 

[Arr0w]

I like Day, think he has huge upside, very good current traits and can play a number of positions

I'd have him at Carlton and would walk into any side

 

[TheFourPillars]

Incredibly... Yes

No Cripps is the better player.

 

[carlton_99]

Nice. We're talking about big overall numbers. I wouldn't be discounting 35.2% vs 30.9% as quite significantly different.

There isn't necessarily a right or wrong way to go about it, if we're talking about game plan. But it is fine to note it as a factor when we are comparing raw disposal averages between each sides top few midfielders, for example.

Some sides simply rotate more players through midfield, or their half forwards and half backs are de facto wingmen, or they expect their forward/back pockets to link up with the play more. It doesn't mean they have a stronger game plan. But it doesn't mean their best few ball winners are worse at finding the footy.

Not discounting the difference. As I said originally I don't think disposal data means too much when it comes to spreading the load.

 

[Kenny Hunter09]

I like Day, think he has huge upside, very good current traits and can play a number of positions

I'd have him at Carlton and would walk into any side

there is no disputing this. Same with Newcombe

 

[carlton_99]

I recall Worpel was second MVP the entire AFL earlier in 2024 champion data
He’s not even in this conversation

Champion Data throws up a lot of weird stuff. Worpel wasn't even the 2nd MVP at Hawthorn let alone in the AFL.

 

[carlton_99]

I like Day, think he has huge upside, very good current traits and can play a number of positions

I'd have him at Carlton and would walk into any side

One of my favourite non-Carlton players. Going to be a star - Hawks very lucky to have him.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

So let it be written. I will ask you this question in 2 or 3 years time. Lets see if you change your opinion then but i doubt it because for you its about possessions and all australians. I have never paid attention to players getting loads of possessions because as far as I am concerned it's about their impact on the game and the team. HAHAHA at David Cunningham and Jack Martin. I am not sure you are going to get this but Will Day is what you call a High IQ player. In a similar vein to Hodge and Burgoyne. His impact on our side is well known to those who watched us play this year. For instance Sam Mitchell is a great player and was much more consistent accumulator. I would Pick Hodge and Burgoyne before Mitchell if picking a team.

That is the reason I still consider Bont to be the best player in the game ahead of Cripps and some of the others

Yeah... If you ask me in 2 or 3 years time and Day has gone from talented player to consistent gun who performs week in week out I'm really not going to care at all, I have nothing against him as a player. If he comes out and performs to an All Australian standard then fantastic for him, I'll gladly give him his plaudits.

And it's interesting you bring up disposals, I don't recall pinning any judgement of players to their disposal count alone. Plenty of crabs in the league who chip the ball around playing kick to kick or demanding 1-2 handballs. The Crouch brothers, Macrae, Luke Ryan etc.


I judge players on their impact in games. Contested possessions, goals, clearances, tackles, contested marks, score involvements, goal assists. If a player runs around getting 35 touches a game doing SFA with it I couldn't care less.

Unfortunately Day and Newcombe perform exceptionally in none of those categories.

They perform at a good-above average standard across the board without being elite in almost any.

You can waffle on about footy IQ, spreading the load, impact you could only see live at the ground... It's all just a bunch of nonsense to me.

When they start producing elite seasons they'll be considered elite players. Until then they're good players who have scope for improvement.

 

[Mr Meow]

If we're talking about 2024/projected 2025 impact (I think raw disposal averages miss the mark):

Cripps -> Newcombe -> Walsh -> the rest

Meek = TDK (Tom should go past him at some point though)

Day/Worpel/Massimo/Nash/Mackenzie -> Hewett/Cerra/Acres/Docherty/Hollands (just)

I don't think there's a hell of a lot in it when assessing overall midfield/wing rotations.

 

[hawkman]

It must be asked, if Day and Newcombe are such talents, why have they never consistently put an All Australian type season together?

You can say age but realistically they still perform quite a margin below the best youngsters in the league around the same age or younger.

Sheezel, Daicos, Ashcroft, Walsh, Butters, Serong, Green, Gulden etc.

You also need a bit of hype around your team with them performing in high profile games to make the AA team. We had Sicily who should have been the first backman picked in 2022 not make the team as we were stuck playing Sunday games. Half the media was just discovering we actually had some good players in the back half of last year

If we start well next season with a lot of Thursday and Friday night games, there will be a lot more media talk about our players

 

[Fadge]

You were saying that Melbourne in 2023 were a greater chance at contending for a premiership, when they lost the SF.

By virtue of finishing top 4 and playing a Qualifying Final against Collingwood at the MCG, Melbourne were indeed a greater chance at contending for the premiership than Carlton, who finished 5th and eventually had to go to Brisnane for a highly unlikely Preliminary Final win.

In the end, neither team contended, given Melbourne also fell short the following week in the semi final, and Carlton were outclassed I Brisbane.

But if Melbourne find 8 more points in the Qualifying Final, they get a home Preliminary Final, and history could have been very different.

Top 4 after home and away is where most of the premiership contenders start, though now with the break before finals, we are starting to see some lower ranked teams emerge as genuine premiership contenders during the finals series - Brisbane in 2024, GWS in 2023, Bulldogs in 2021.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You also need a bit of hype around your team with them performing in high profile games to make the AA team. We had Sicily who should have been the first backman picked in 2022 not make the team as we were stuck playing Sunday games. Half the media was just discovering we actually had some good players in the back half of last year

If we start of well next season with a lot of Thursday and Friday night games, there will be a lot more media talk about our players

I agree on that. And I agree that Sicily was absolutely snubbed that year. Was ridiculous at the time and still annoys me to this day.

The two players being discussed though have never really been in the frame to get snubbed in the first place which is more my point.

 

[Mr Meow]

I agree on that. And I agree that Sicily was absolutely snubbed that year. Was ridiculous at the time and still annoys me to this day.

The two players being discussed though have never really been in the frame to get snubbed in the first place which is more my point.

Only 8 players ended up with more coaches votes than Newcombe after his stellar finals performances. Only 10 had a better average. That's a very, very good season and his 2023 wasn't far off that (he just didn't have the memorable finals for obvious reasons).

Day is the one you can make your argument about, but not Newcombe who went past Walsh in the second half of 2024.

 

[carlton_99]

Only 8 players ended up with more coaches votes than Newcombe after his stellar finals performances. Only 10 had a better average. That's a very, very good season and his 2023 wasn't far off that (he just didn't have the memorable finals for obvious reasons).

Day is the one you can make your argument about, but not Newcombe who went past Walsh in the second half of 2024.

Newcombe had a great season but not sure you can make the argument that Newcombe has gone past him as a player just because of the 2nd half of 2024. Walsh still averaged more coaches votes in a year that wasn't really close to his best overall and he was still impacted by the back injury in pre-season.

 

[peetoo]

Am I reading this right - there are Hawthorn supporters are saying that Newcombe and Day are in the same realm of talent as Patrick Cripps?

I’m not reading that but I didn’t do the whole thread.

More that Carlton’s top end is strong but teams like hawthorn have more depth across the board what people call bottom six if you like.

Carlton went heavily at the draft and their 2025 picks sit with Hawthorn.

Maybe their pick 3 etc can give an instant return like Dear or Watson, cos the changes in 2024 don’t appear to have strengthened them or addressed weaknesses.

I do think 2025 will be close at the top like 2024 so any team threbouts should be really going for it

 

[Gavin Excell]

You also need a bit of hype around your team with them performing in high profile games to make the AA team. We had Sicily who should have been the first backman picked in 2022 not make the team as we were stuck playing Sunday games. Half the media was just discovering we actually had some good players in the back half of last year

If we start of well next season with a lot of Thursday and Friday night games, there will be a lot more media talk about our players

Having a look at first month
Hawks have:
Sydney away
Essendon
Carlton (superclash)
GWS

Not an overly easy draw


Carlton:

Richmond
Hawks
Dogs
Pies

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Only 8 players ended up with more coaches votes than Newcombe after his stellar finals performances. Only 10 had a better average. That's a very, very good season and his 2023 wasn't far off that (he just didn't have the memorable finals for obvious reasons).

Day is the one you can make your argument about, but not Newcombe who went past Walsh in the second half of 2024.

By that measure Walsh had the same number of votes this year in less games?

Neither Newcombe or Day are on the level of Cripps or Walsh at their best. I'll concede Walsh has struggled for stretches the last couple years with his back, but a poor season from Walsh is about equal to Newcombe's career best season... Says it all really

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Having a look at first month
Hawks have:
Sydney away
Essendon
Carlton (superclash)
GWS

Not an overly easy draw


Carlton:

Richmond
Hawks
Dogs
Pies

Blues isn't much easier to start but is ridiculously soft for a stretch after that.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Yeah... If you ask me in 2 or 3 years time and Day has gone from talented player to consistent gun who performs week in week out I'm really not going to care at all, I have nothing against him as a player. If he comes out and performs to an All Australian standard then fantastic for him, I'll gladly give him his plaudits.

And it's interesting you bring up disposals, I don't recall pinning any judgement of players to their disposal count alone. Plenty of crabs in the league who chip the ball around playing kick to kick or demanding 1-2 handballs. The Crouch brothers, Macrae, Luke Ryan etc.


I judge players on their impact in games. Contested possessions, goals, clearances, tackles, contested marks, score involvements, goal assists. If a player runs around getting 35 touches a game doing SFA with it I couldn't care less.

Unfortunately Day and Newcombe perform exceptionally in none of those categories.

They perform at a good-above average standard across the board without being elite in almost any.

You can waffle on about footy IQ, spreading the load, impact you could only see live at the ground... It's all just a bunch of nonsense to me.

When they start producing elite seasons they'll be considered elite players. Until then they're good players who have scope for improvement.

Like i said i was sure u wouldn't get it

 

[Gavin Excell]

Blues isn't much easier to start but is ridiculously soft for a stretch after that.

Yes after the 4th game v Pies, Carltons next 10 games include 4 v North and West Coast (double ups)

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Like i said i was sure u wouldn't get it

So we're to disregard all the measuring tools we have available to us to determine a players impact in favour of just the vibe?

How utterly ridiculous.

 

[TheFourPillars]

So we're to disregard all the measuring tools we have available to us to determine a players impact in favour of just the vibe?

How utterly ridiculous.

No but do you agree Burgoyne and Hodge are great players? Their output according to your measures doesn't go as far does it

 

[matey]

Newk has come back in great shape and has come along way from when he first started. Always working his arse off on running technique, footwork, agility etc. Gotta remember he was a late starter but his body shape has clearly changed in two years …… the young bull has just started!

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

No but do you agree Burgoyne and Hodge are great players? Their output according to your measures doesn't go as far does it

By what measures? Burgoyne and Hodge had All Australian years and flags to go with it. Both were considerably better than either Day or Newcombe by a long way.

I'm really not sure I've seen more bizarre glazing over two players who haven't achieved anything of note.

As I said, they're good players and have scope to improve, but until they reach those heights that's all they are.