Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[carlton_99]

2 flags to 1 without Rance. Their defence improved as they moved away from Rance being on his own to playing more as a defensive unit. Cox destroyed Rance cost them 2018.

Rance was a great defender but having 6 defenders working together is better than 1 trying to do most of the work as good as he was. It took some adjusting for them when Rance went down but it resulted in a better defensive output.

The post was about 2017 - the Tigers relied on their best players just like any club does. And I don't think 2 flags to 1 without Rance means in anyway they were better because Rance wasn't in the team. Richmond were just not a great team for much of Rance's career and peaked when he was near retirement.

 

[peetoo]

Just happy this is a live conversation, it would have been derided early 2024. I reckon the current thread vote 2-1 to hawthorn just reflects who voted.
May the best team win

 

[H00t]

The post was about 2017 - the Tigers relied on their best players just like any club does. And I don't think 2 flags to 1 without Rance means in anyway they were better because Rance wasn't in the team. Richmond were just not a great team for much of Rance's career and peaked when he was near retirement.

It’s pointless to only look at 2017 though.

Those 4 players all played well in 2016 and earlier when the tigers were average at best. It took the tigers changing the gameplan and focussing on getting all 22 players involved that made them improve.

So while they were their best players they relied on the improvement of the rest of their team to compete. As just relying on them in 2016 saw them miss finals.

 

[Fadge]

It’s pointless to only look at 2017 though.

Those 4 players all played well in 2016 and earlier when the tigers were average at best. It took the tigers changing the gameplan and focussing on getting all 22 players involved that made them improve.

So while they were their best players they relied on the improvement of the rest of their team to compete. As just relying on them in 2016 saw them miss finals.

Yep.

Understand to roles of the likes of Lambert, Prestia, Vlaustin, Houli, etc.

Hawthorn have those equivalents; who are they at Carlton?

 

[carlton_99]

Hawthorn have those equivalents; who are they at Carlton?

Carlton have no role players, didn't you know? They made back to back finals series with a PF in 2023 off the back of 5 players. Voss just selected the other 18 every week randomly out of a hat and they sat on the sideline cheering with some pom poms in hand.

 

[Fadge]

Carlton have no role players, didn't you know? They made back to back finals series with a PF in 2023 off the back of 5 players. Voss just selected the other 18 every week randomly out of a hat and they sat on the sideline cheering with some pom poms in hand.

There we go again, the famous 'back to back finals series'!

 

[carlton_99]

There we go again, the famous 'back to back finals series'!

Yes back to back finals series is a massive improvement from what they were showing prior to 2023. Cripps/Walsh/Weitering/McKay/Curnow were all on the list prior to 2023. Carlton have shown improvement because of growth outside of just those five. You not being able to recognise that is not my problem.

 

[Fadge]

Yes back to back finals series is a massive improvement from what they were showing prior to 2023. Cripps/Walsh/Weitering/McKay/Curnow were all on the list prior to 2023. Carlton have shown improvement because of growth outside of just those five. You not being able to recognise that is not my problem.

Carlton 2021 (8 wins from 22 games) - Strong years from McKay (Coleman - 58 goals), Walsh (30 Brownlow votes from 9 games) and Weitering (played all games and runner up in B&F). Down year from Cripps and Curnow only played 4 games. 87 of 110 games played between the 5 players.

Carlton 2022 (12 wins from 22 games) - Strong years from Cripps (Brownlow Medal), Curnow (Coleman Medal) and Walsh (3rd in B&F). Down years from McKay and Weitering. 100 of 110 games played between the 5 players.

Carlton 2023 (13 wins from 23 games) - Strong years from Curnow (Coleman Medal) and Weitering (Club Best and Fairest). Cripps slightly down on output, Walsh got going from the middle of the season but down year from McKay. 115 from 130 games played between the 5 players.

Carlton 2024 (13 wins from 23 games) - Strong years from Cripps (Brownlow), Weitering (AA and 4th in B&F) and McKay. Walsh started well but faded late, playing well enough to finish 3rd in Carlton's B&F. Curnow leading the Coleman until fading late. 108 from 120 games played between the 5 players.

Carlton have had similar total output from their top 5 players across the last three seasons, and produced similar results. The outlier of the last 4 years was 2021, when Curnow barely played and Cripps had a down year, which led to an 8 win season.

Averaging between 87% and 91% of games played between the 5 players is about as good as can be expected, which has been the case across the last 3 seasons.

You can't draw the line at 2023 because you qualified for finals by winning an additional game than you did in 2022 (when there was an additional home and away game on offer), and say 'See, growth outside of our top 5 has led to our improvement!'

 

[carlton_99]

You can't draw the line at 2023 because you qualified for finals by winning an additional game than you did in 2022 (when there was an additional home and away game on offer), and say 'See, growth outside of our top 5 has led to our improvement!'

Making finals is a massive stage in a team's progression from the bottom. That is why I drew the line at 2023. But ever since Voss joined in 2022 we have seen improved performances from the players around our core group. We have also recruited heavily to supplement this area in the last few years. Once again this is AFL football - your performance is very rarely dictated by the games of just five or so players. It's completely nonsensical.

 

[Fadge]

Making finals is a massive stage in a team's progression from the bottom. That is why I drew the line at 2023. But ever since Voss joined in 2022 we have seen improved performances from the players around our core group. We have also recruited heavily to supplement this area in the last few years. Once again this is AFL football - your performance is very rarely dictated by the games of just five or so players. It's completely nonsensical.

But Carlton's results haven't materially improved.

12 wins in 2022 from 22 games.
13 wins in 2023 from 23 games.
13 wins in 2024 from 23 games.

And you've got about the same total output from your top 5 players across each of those seasons.

Surely if Carlton's list outside of these players has improved, we'd be seeing improved win/loss ratios?

 

[carlton_99]

But Carlton's results haven't materially improved.

12 wins in 2022 from 22 games.
13 wins in 2023 from 23 games.
13 wins in 2024 from 23 games.

And you've got about the same total output from your top 5 players across each of those seasons.

Surely if Carlton's list outside of these players has improved, we'd be seeing improved win/loss ratios?

When did Voss join Carlton again? Pretty sure it was 2022 and that was the big spike in our improvement.

 

[Fadge]

When did Voss join Carlton again? Pretty sure it was 2022 and that was the big spike in our improvement.

Same year as McRae joined Collingwood.

And McRae, who inherited a list that finished 17th in 2021, and was apparently going nowhere, already has a flag to his name.

 

[carlton_99]

Same year as McRae joined Collingwood.

And McRae, who inherited a list that finished 17th in 2021, and was apparently going nowhere, already has a flag to his name.

You know full well Collingwood's list in 2022 still had a bunch of core players that had been part of successful teams for years. You don't do anything the last three years without those players still on your list. Carlton prior to 2022 hadn't made finals since 2013 and hadn't had much real success at all in the 2000s. They have had to completely build up some sort of winning culture from scratch and it's still a work in progress.

Bottom line, Voss has had a much tougher job than what McRae has had at bringing the teams from where they were to finals and beyond.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Just happy this is a live conversation, it would have been derided early 2024. I reckon the current thread vote 2-1 to hawthorn just reflects who voted.
May the best team win

Agreed campaigner. Good to see the Hawks fans up and about even if you are an intolerable lot.