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AFLW 2024 - Round 3 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Who will win the Brownlow?
- Thread starter Call Me Cake
- Start date
- Tagged users None
The2ndComing
Debutant
Mitchells the most likely roughy. Will probably be B&F in a GF team.
Ablett, Swan, Murphy were all worthy winners of the brownlow. There is a system with the brownlow, i guess people are still learning about it.
The Goon
Norm Smith Medallist
Have to disagree. While I think Cotch won't win it, if he does it's just the way this awkward award works, especially in this year.
Theres only one player who I'd have clearly ahead of him this year - Gazza. But how much is that affected by the team he plays in and the role he plays, plus how many votes can he get in a team that finished 17th? A lot of other players MAY be ahead of him - Swan, Pendles, Jobe, Danger etc etc etc ... any of them would be worthy winners, as would Cotch.
ize_
Cancelled
- Jun 15, 2007
- 5,881
- 4,043
- AFL Club
- Richmond
FFS, no one is using the AFLCA as a guide for predicting the Brownlow. The "system" is relatively straight forward. It's just that if you win the AFLCA award, most people would agree that you have had an outstanding year and would be a worthy winner of the Brownlow. It's an indication of a good year, just like the Brownlow is. The AFLCA defense was brought up in response to ConfuciusSays who seemed to think that Cotchin was not a worthy winner. He has been in the top bunch of players this year, along with Watson, Ablett, and a handful of others. No one can seriously dispute that.
Ablett polled 3 of 30 in losses when he won. There are better examples - Ricciuto 8 of 22, Woewodin 8 of 24, Crawford 8 of 28, Kelly 8 of 21.
Reckon Cotchin will need at least 8 votes from losses to win the Medal, but I don't think it's out of the question.
- Banned
- #1,007
At one point in the season, the Tiges were $1.20 to make the 8... and they weren't even in the 8 at the time!!
I happily took $4.00 them to miss the 8 at that time.
Matching Mole
Cancelled
Probably? Why so humble?
The2ndComing
Debutant
Probably, potentially - not getting ahead of myself at all.
ConfuciusSays
Debutant
Would love Cotchin to win... but not from lovey dovey 1-2 votes given on a platter to him by the umps when there was obviously better players on the day... wait I have it wrong. I just described Judd's vote getting abilities lol. Umps GTFO!
Dont be naive claiming 'no one' is using the AFLCA as a guide for predicting the Brownlow. This is talking shit and you just need to read a few pages to find out this is happening. Bookies follow the media, hence structure the favourite accordingly with Cotchin. I wasn't even responding to your post, yet like every other Richmond followers - they are here to back the Cotch.
Never said Cotch is not a worthy winner, just questioning some tallies (some really outlandish with numbers) with Cotch clear winner. Going by how the brownlow has occured in previous years, combined with the number of games RICH have won, it may be a year premature that Cotchin wins it.
Cotchin, Pendles, Selwood will all win one in due time.
Now come back with some better substance other then 'no one is using the AFLCA as a guide'
Never mention about not polling BOG in losses to win it, you just need to go back the past 5-8 years to have a good sample of how many BOGs the winner polled and the percentage of votes behind winning games.
I do acknowledge the later names you've brought up, but this is going way back. The game has changed, umpires have changed.
I am not putting a 0% chance against Cotchin winning it, I'm merely pointing out the odds are against him - and with him being favourite, gives punters something to work with.
- Banned
- #1,014
If I had a million, I'd lay the 2 favourites. Cotchin & Ablett. Easiest $160,000 I will ever make!!
IMHO it's got to be Dangerfield or Thompson. Adelaide have won a heap of games and those two stick out in their midfield.
- Jul 25, 2008
- 3,937
- 2,548
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
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- Indiana Pacers
If Thompson polled more than 3 votes across the last 8 rounds, I'll be very surprised.
The thing i have noticed this year is Cotchin gets more free's and lookes like the umpires are more aware of him being held or blocked.
Which leads me to believe they are watching him and in turn will have his good games in their mind come vote time, Only other player i noticed this with is judd
Dont know if he will win it as i havnt seen alot of watson or ablett this year but i believe he will be in the top 3
Which leads me to believe they are watching him and in turn will have his good games in their mind come vote time, Only other player i noticed this with is judd
Dont know if he will win it as i havnt seen alot of watson or ablett this year but i believe he will be in the top 3
Ok, so you don't think Cotchin will win, we get it. However lots of people think otherwise and the AFLCA medal is an indication that he has had a very good year is it not? It's like you're trying to tell us exactly what will happen when you don't know either. No one knows what the umpires think.
Cotchin's possessions stand out like dog balls compared to most other players because he is so good and has so many tricks that are very easy on the eye, which is why I think he will stand out to the umpires a lot more than someone like beams, watson or thompson who just go about their business very quietly racking up the stats. This isn't to say cotchin has had a better year, I just think his game style would stand out more to the umpires, which is why I think dangerfield is also a good chance.
RichardMarx
Team Captain
Whaa? He was clearly 2nd best in the last 2 crows games. There's 4 votes alone.
- Banned
- #1,020
You're as far off the mark as Buckley is with his coaching. Will poll a lot more than 3 over the last 8.
Darcynav25
Draftee
- Sep 5, 2012
- 11
- 6
- AFL Club
- Carlton
1 G. Ablett (28)
2 D. Swan (28)
3 J. Watson (26)
4 S. Thompson (25)
5 P. Dangerfield (25)
Statistically Swan has had a better year than last year when he won the brownlow and only played 1 game lessthis year. He averages nearly 36 touches a game this year, with his lowest possession count being a 27. He reached 30+ possies on 15 out of 18 occassions including 6 40+ possie games. With an average of 36 possies a game, that doesnt go noticed. True that pendles and Beams will steal votes, but i cant see many other pies players polling well. Pies won a fair
Cotchin has only got 30+ possies on 7 occasions. Tiges only had 10 wins calculating to around 80 votes allocated to their players. Cotch, Deledio, grigg, maric, reiwoldt and tuck have all had decent years (6-12 votes each probably), i cant see how cotchin will get enough votes to even poll remotely well.
2 D. Swan (28)
3 J. Watson (26)
4 S. Thompson (25)
5 P. Dangerfield (25)
Statistically Swan has had a better year than last year when he won the brownlow and only played 1 game lessthis year. He averages nearly 36 touches a game this year, with his lowest possession count being a 27. He reached 30+ possies on 15 out of 18 occassions including 6 40+ possie games. With an average of 36 possies a game, that doesnt go noticed. True that pendles and Beams will steal votes, but i cant see many other pies players polling well. Pies won a fair
Cotchin has only got 30+ possies on 7 occasions. Tiges only had 10 wins calculating to around 80 votes allocated to their players. Cotch, Deledio, grigg, maric, reiwoldt and tuck have all had decent years (6-12 votes each probably), i cant see how cotchin will get enough votes to even poll remotely well.
Yeah I've got him down for 6 over that period.
- Jun 16, 2012
- 25,455
- 26,429
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Cotchin
- Banned
- #1,024
Gazundheit.
- Jul 25, 2008
- 3,937
- 2,548
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Indiana Pacers
How come you mentioned Buckley?
Irregardless of how many votes he may or may not poll, he wasn't consistent enough over the last half of the year to win the Brownlow, IMO.
