Who'll be the next club to fall off their cliff?

[Muddiemoose]

Surprised to remember that Lynch was Pick 11. Tigers big 4 players of their time all top 15 picks, and in hindsight all should have been top 10 picks.

Absolutely
Even guys like Vlossy and Caddy if doing the draft again probably slip back in the order but either way like your original point alluded to it just highlights that flag winning teams need a lot of talent and ideally having a strong group of them peaking together around that 25 - 26 year old mark

 

[FrustratedTiger]

Taxpayer Oval means Geelong only need an average team to make finals. They won't slump too far. Collingwood should have another one in them. They're getting older but their old players are still classy. Dogs are already gone. Sydeny will fly under the radar as per normal and all of a sudden, we'll find them in the 8 at the end of the year and we won't know why. Melbourne will be totally dependent on how much their leadership group has shielded the team from all the Clarry noise around them.

Reckon Brisbane might be the one that falls

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I think they will.
If this preseason is anything to go by. Almost the entire list is healthy for the first time in a while. Having conceded the year was effectively finished as early as late August, the club sent players in for surgeries as to avoid any delays for this stage of the new year.
When it comes to Geelong, list depth and health is premium. They must ensure Guthrie, Blicavs and Henry are right to go as they are three of the most important players (team structure) heading into the new year.

It would not surprise me if the Cats can bounce back into finals this season if more goes right. Still have plenty of talent, well coached & huge home ground advantage.

Certainly can't see them falling further.

 

[My Tilly]

It would not surprise me if the Cats can bounce back into finals this season if more goes right. Still have plenty of talent, well coached & huge home ground advantage.

Certainly can't see them falling further.

That's the biggest factor for me.
Geelong face: St Kilda, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide & West Coast at Kardinia Park.

If they can win 7 of those, they are in a solid position when you take into account they don't have to play the 'highly fancied' teams twice in Collingwood, GWS, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney or Port Adelaide.

 

[Joao]

That's the biggest factor for me.
Geelong face: St Kilda, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide & West Coast at Kardinia Park.

If they can win 7 of those, they are in a solid position when you take into account they don't have to play the 'highly fancied' teams twice in Collingwood, GWS, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney or Port Adelaide.

You've avoided a double up against Freo too, which based off the last couple of years is a good thing for you.

If the full fitness thing is real (and stays that way) and assuming Hawkins is still at the level, hard to see you missing finals.

 

[My Tilly]

You've avoided a double up against Freo too, which based off the last couple of years is a good thing for you.

If the full fitness thing is real (and stays that way) and assuming Hawkins is still at the level, hard to see you missing finals.

Really unsure about Hawkins.

Am confident Cameron will come close to the Coleman medal again. Hawkins may only have 35-40 goals left in him but Geelong's priority will be Neale whom they'll play forward majority of the season.
He's been training the house down but that means nothing if you cannot bring it against the big boys. Now has the body, tank and maturity to do what Thilthorpe did last year for the Crows. Pinch hit in ruck while providing a strong target beside the two key forwards.

Stengle is another one who needs to recapture his All Australian form. Suffered a broken wrist early on in the season and another one of those players who immediately improves the forward line when on song.

 

[Partridge]

That's the biggest factor for me.
Geelong face: St Kilda, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide & West Coast at Kardinia Park.

If they can win 7 of those, they are in a solid position when you take into account they don't have to play the 'highly fancied' teams twice in Collingwood, GWS, Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney or Port Adelaide.

We absolutely must win at least 7 of those. At the same time, we actually went 7-2 at home in 2023 and still missed the finals, so winning away is (obviously) every bit as important.

 

[demondavey]

Geelong I wouldn’t think will drop. They have too good a club and organisation to drop away.

 

[Freomaniac]

GWS first pick was Goddard at 12, Curtin went at 8, academy etc.
You may be right, but the draft is still a lottery.
If Hopper has an average year then yes Richmond lost, but we won't know for a while yet.

I agree that the draft is a lottery. But at least last year's draft , guys that were drafted played in the state leagues of sanfl, wafl and VFL or they played reserves or under 18s

 

[citizen-erased]

Pies will need a bit to avoid, but they jagged the flag they needed before it came and are in pole to secure another before they lose some key players.

No guarantee either
There's a good profile that can keep them up and about if they add some astute signings

 

[Partridge]

Geelong I wouldn’t think will drop. They have too good a club and organisation to drop away.

At the same time, it's been completely glossed over that we dropped 11 places in 2023. If we were to finish anywhere between 9th-12th for instance, we're either improving or holding steady. Only the bottom four or thereabouts would be a genuine drop.

 

[demondavey]

At the same time, it's been completely glossed over that we dropped 11 places in 2023. If we were to finish anywhere between 9th-12th for instance, we're either improving or holding steady. Only the bottom four or thereabouts would be a genuine drop.

You should finish 7-8th I reckon.

 

[Partridge]

You should finish 7-8th I reckon.

Yeah it's going to depend on form at interstate and neutral venues.

 

[aCunningPlan]

Would be thrilled to scrape into the eight, but I can see a similar result for Geelong this year. Happy to be proven wrong.

 

[Joao]

Would be thrilled to scrape into the eight, but I can see a similar result for Geelong this year. Happy to be proven wrong.

I feel like with your age demographic, you either want top 4 or bottom 4. Not sure mid table makes sense. If your list is fit and nobody (important) has dropped off, you're still a potential top 4 team.

 

[Tandy]

Regards to the poll. Geelong over someone else. Wow

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Would be thrilled to scrape into the eight, but I can see a similar result for Geelong this year. Happy to be proven wrong.

With the very kind draw and the home ground advantage Geelong has I'd say NOT making the 8 this year would be confirmation that the Cats have stepped over the edge are are travelling at 9.8m/s2 downward.

 

[VinnieB]

Surprised to remember that Lynch was Pick 11. Tigers big 4 players of their time all top 15 picks, and in hindsight all should have been top 10 picks.

Nick Daicos pick 4
JDG pick 5
Moore matched at pick 9

Quaynor probably would be top 10 (rather than 13) if 2018 draft re-done.
J Daicos would have been a top 10 pick if 2016 was re-done.

We can forget about Pendles and Sidebottom as they are over 30.

So, still don't understand your point about the Pies not having enough top 10 picks to not 'fall of a cliff'.

But I get it. You can't stand the Pies and need to keep clutching onto something in hope.
You must be short...

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Geelong I wouldn’t think will drop. They have too good a club and organisation to drop away.

Quite a few key players now in the twilight of their career where niggles can quickly become career ending.

 

[VinnieB]

Quite a few key players now in the twilight of their career where niggles can quickly become career ending.

I’d be more concerned about a 29 year old Siciliy who is your only key defender and by far most important player. How many times did Hawthorn get pumped when he wasn’t playing in 2023? By your reckoning, he is only a year away from being past it.

And what about Breust? Your highest goal kicker who commences the season at 33? Mitch Lewis is into his 8th season and yet to kick 40 goals a season. Unfortunately it seems his body may not up to the rigours of AFL football.

Lucky you drafted Chol…..

 

[Joao]

I was staggered to find out Pendles was the 2nd highest CBA from the Pies last year. That dude gonna play forever.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I was staggered to find out Pendles was the 2nd highest CBA from the Pies last year. That dude gonna play forever.

It is a bit surprising how reliant they are on a 36 year old.

 

[Joao]

It is a bit surprising how reliant they are on a 36 year old.

We were the same with Mundy... missed him big time in 2023.

I understand though, both irreplaceable so you cling on as long as you can.

 

[citizen-erased]

It is a bit surprising how reliant they are on a 36 year old.

De goey tore the finals apart
Daicos went close to a brownlow in year 2 after missing 4 games
His brother was one of the premier wingers in the comp
Bobby Hill kicked 5 in a GF and now has a quality partner in crime in schultz
Moore is a gun captain and defender (second only to Taylor in the comp)

Pendles is consistently class but reliant is a ridiculous statement

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

De goey tore the finals apart
Daicos went close to a brownlow in year 2 after missing 4 games
His brother was one of the premier wingers in the comp
Bobby Hill kicked 5 in a GF and now has a quality partner in crime in schultz
Moore is a gun captain and defender (second only to Taylor in the comp)

Pendles is consistently class but reliant is a ridiculous statement

As is saying that they didn’t rely on someone who took the second most CBA’s of all players on their list.