Opinion Why are the interstate teams so bad? How do we fix them?

[Demonic Ascent]

Had they won flags in 1965, 1971, 1997 and either 2009 or 2010, the saints would of complained much less.

Had interstate teams won flags in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2019 they would have complained much less.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Yeah but clearly something is wrong if interstate teams have a 2 out of 15 premiership record

Just shows which clubs are well managed and which ones aren't.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Well I might observe that WCE have had the first 300 game player this season after 35 seasons while Footscray/Bulldogs have had 3 if not 4 in the same period and almost all melbourne and Adelaide clubs have had more. As for WCE travelling well, they have performed well enough on the road in years when they have had dominant sides. In those years where they have had moderate to average sides they are frequently accused of being flat track home ground bullies because their record on the road is perceived to be so poor.
You ridicule others' evidence suggesting travel does hinder performance, but then offer evidence of a dominant Hawthorn's record while travelling as evidence to the contrary. Ignoring of course that at least a third of their 'travelling' games were to their second home ground at Yorke Park, to which their opponents were also are required to travel, often much further. So do you suggest that Hathorn travelling one hour to play an opponent, eg Fremantle, which at that time had travelled at least 6 hours, equates to say the WCE travelling to any East Coast venue to play a side that drove from their home to the ground? Or is that just a 'vibe' I imagined?

Mate I offered up more than 1 example, Hawthorn was just 1.
Yes WC could be effected when they are crap, or they could be just crap, I mean they seem to have done better than most sides, I think it's just Hawthorn with a better record than them, imagine that hey, Hawthorn.

Here is one I have asked many times, and never seem to get an answer.

Why did Don Pyke, who would know more about traveling than any of us, take Adelaide to the Gold Coast for a holiday on the eve of the finals?
He would know if traveling hinders performance, yet he was prepared to travel when they didn't need to.

 

[bh90210fan]

Na champ, that is again you just ticking your own.

The crowd isn't 90%+ like it normally is
The familiar "home" routine doesn’t apply
And psychology is completely different

Eagle nuffies haven't been able to hold a consistent line as to what actually creates the home advantage.

You are consistent in the "fact" that the Eagles are always disadvantaged though.

you reckon a familiar home routine has an effect on performance, yet the familiarity of playing on your home ground for the 17th/18th time on gf day counts for nothing. Don’t think so

you don’t think the crowd has an influence, yet the biggest impact crowd has on match day is umpiring, and Victorian clubs haven’t lost a free kick count in a grand final against non Victorian opposition in 20 years. That’s 11 games in a row. youre getting the rub of the green.

There is evidence showing that even teams which share a ground have more success as the nominal home side when playing against each other. The psychology you refer to extends to something so minimal as to just running out of the home change rooms. To think this is just wiped off completely for this one game a year is too much of a reach.

 

[bh90210fan]

Trends can have exceptions.

They’re 0-4 against non Melbourne sides in grand finals since 2000. That’s a fair few exceptions.

interesting the one club who spends more time at home than any other and theoretically the most battle hardened, should be the one getting found out constantly in finals by non Melbourne teams.

looks like getting to play 17 games a year on only 2 grounds is inflating their ladder position

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

And where was Fitzroys final AFL game?

Oh thats right in WA vs the dockers.

You say that you dont see getting rid of Victorian clubs that have been around for over 120 years can improve the fame or league at all.

But on the other hand the same victorian people that follow these clubs for 100-120 years Want GWS and Gold Coast killed off and both have only been around for 10 or so years.

Not me. It's a long haul but the League's investment in the Suns and Giants will pay off eventually IE increase the draft and playing pool from those regions. Some fans unfortunately cannot see the big picture.

 

[wedgetail]

Why? St Kilda has a 1 out of 125 premiership record, where's their inquiry?

You seem to be missing the point a little here. Inquiries aren't for individual clubs, the law of averages says that they can possess individual crapness and this cant really be helped. Inquiries are fairly big deal and saved for when a whole market is floundering.

The non victorian clubs fluked half a dozen flags in 20 years and the last 3 dynasty clubs were all Victorian. This is not an equalised competition. Needs an inquiry.

 

[Baird]

Probably a coincidence. 2001-06 premiers were all interstate.

 

[HairyO]

Had interstate teams won flags in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2019 they would have complained much less.

Probably not.

2 years with most games outside Vic and no finals in Vic and they still complain.

 

[doppleganger]

They’re 0-4 against non Melbourne sides in grand finals since 2000. That’s a fair few exceptions.

interesting the one club who spends more time at home than any other and theoretically the most battle hardened, should be the one getting found out constantly in finals by non Melbourne teams.

looks like getting to play 17 games a year on only 2 grounds is inflating their ladder position

Pies

In 2002 finished 4th, beat Port in Adelaide in QF to progress to GF
In 2003 finished 2nd, beat Brisbane in a home QF to progress to GF
In 2011 finished 1st, only lost to one side all year - Geelong - who we faced in GF
In 2018 finished 3rd, only made GF by beating 1st in PF

As usual your analysis doesn't stack up

Pies have a tendency to overperform in finals - ie make a GF from 4th, 3rd. Our H&A position isn't inflated.

And come GF day, we again don't receive any obvious advantage if you look at results.

Which sides often finish top2 and don't make the GF, they are the sides that benefit from H&A inequality.....a hint for you it ain't Melbourne teams.

 

[wedgetail]

2001-06 premiers were all interstate.

Yes this was the subject of an official inquiry

 

[bh90210fan]

Pies

In 2002 finished 4th, beat Port in Adelaide in QF to progress to GF
In 2003 finished 2nd, beat Brisbane in a home QF to progress to GF
In 2011 finished 1st, only lost to one side all year - Geelong - who we faced in GF
In 2018 finished 3rd, only made GF by beating 1st in PF

As usual your analysis doesn't stack up

Pies have a tendency to overperform in finals - ie make a GF from 4th, 3rd. Our H&A position isn't inflated.

And come GF day, we again don't receive any obvious advantage if you look at results.

Which sides often finish top2 and don't make the GF, they are the sides that benefit from H&A inequality.....a hint for you it ain't Melbourne teams.

Which sides clog up the record books with the most successful h&a seasons in afl history, they arent the ones travelling all over the countryside every other week.

You don’t have a tendency to over-perform in finals. You’d be hard pressed to find any other Collingwood supporter to agree with you there. You’ve made 6 grand finals in the afl - after finishing 3rd in 2018, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2010, 2nd in 2003, 4th in 2002 and 2nd in 1990.

you don’t tend to make them from 3rd or 4th at all

you tend to make them from 1st or 2nd then lose them to teams based outside of Melbourne.

 

[Freomaniac]

Had interstate teams won flags in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2019 they would have complained much less.

Yes I would!

Especially that 2013.

 

[Jack5]

Sample size of 15 years is too small to base any conclusions on.

 

[Blackas87]

The non victorian clubs fluked half a dozen flags in 20 years and the last 3 dynasty clubs were all Victorian. This is not an equalised competition. Needs an inquiry.

The Eagles were on the verge of a dynasty from 2005 for the next 6-8 years but the team collapsed under a drug culture. Bloody Vicco’s

 

[Shadow89]

This is such a sad thread.

Both you and Brisbane were given the perfect lead in, over the last two years. Brisbane were basically handed a GF if they could beat us, and you guys were the only interstate team to play BOTH your finals at home, both years. Difference is, Brisbane aren't sooking about it and accept their shortcomings. You guys however, seem to think you're entitled to be in a GF (judging by all your past players planning GF events, Rockliff stating it was pretty much guaranteed you'd make the GF and the circle-jerk from Adelaide media). Bulldogs had the worst prep, injured/missing players galore, weren't even allowed to train, travelled and quarantined 3 times in the space of 3 weeks, and absolutely annihilated you - who had the week off, had home ground advantage, had a full squad to pick from and had a perfect lead in with an easy win against us (your coach stated exactly this point post-match).

Instead of looking internally at what's wrong with your club, you instead choose to blame perceived outside influences. Which, upon deeper reading, you would actually realize is completely flawed.

Since West Coast won the first flag as an interstate team in '92, there have been 28 other flag winners - this is the breakdown:

1992 - West Coast
1993 - Essendon
1994 - West Coast
1995 - Carlton
1996 - North
1997 - Adelaide
1998 - Adelaide
1999 - North
2000 - Essendon
2001 - Brisbane
2002 - Brisbane
2003 - Brisbane
2004 - Port
2005 - Sydney
2006 - West Coast
2007 - Geelong
2008 - Hawthorn
2009 - Geelong
2010 - Collingwood
2011 - Geelong
2012 - Sydney
2013 - Hawthorn
2014 - Hawthorn
2015 - Hawthorn
2016 - Bulldogs
2017 - Richmond
2018 - West Coast
2019 - Richmond
2020 - Richmond
2021 - Bulldogs/Melbourne


So that's 30 years of data, with 12 flags being won by interstate sides. It's not a bad percentage, given that from 2001-2020, only 7 different teams won flags over that period - such was the strength of those powerhouse teams. If we had isolated this data from 1997-2006, there'd be an argument that interstate teams are far too dominant, given that there were only 6 at that time, and they'd won 8 out of the last 10.

If you want to look at just the last 15 years, and dig even deeper, you'll also notice that the percentage invariably goes WAY up, when you consider how many Grand Finals interstate teams have played in (beat 14-16 other teams from both interstate and Vic to get there) - rather than flags they've won:


2007 - Geelong vs Port
2008 - Hawthorn vs Geelong
2009 - Geelong vs St Kilda
2010 - Collingwood vs St Kilda
2011 - Geelong vs Collingwood
2012 - Sydney vs Hawthorn
2013 - Hawthorn vs Fremantle
2014 - Hawthorn vs Sydney
2015 - Hawthorn vs West Coast
2016 - Bulldogs vs Sydney
2017 - Richmond vs Adelaide
2018 - West Coast vs Collingwood
2019 - Richmond vs GWS
2020 - Richmond vs Geelong
2021 - Bulldogs/Melbourne

That means, that 9 out of the last 15, have had interstate teams play off in the big dance - about right (if not slightly over-represented) when it comes to the amount of interstate teams in the comp (18).

The other bit of data that massively stands out, is that Sydney and West Coast dominate both GF appearances and flags over the past 15 years - where the 6 other teams do not (5 out of those 9). That says something about those particular clubs, not interstate clubs in general.

Given you were handed a perfect lead in, weren't forced to play away, and were likely to be playing away on a neutral ground as opposed to the MCG - both this year and last year - it seems highly disingenuous for you to complain about 'Vic bias' when it's your own club that's responsible for its current position, and not anyone or anything else.

Enjoy the persecution complex, I'm sure it'll help you cope better.

 

[doppleganger]

You don’t have a tendency to over-perform in finals. You’d be hard pressed to find any other Collingwood supporter to agree with you there. You’ve made 6 grand finals in the afl - after finishing 3rd in 2018, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2010, 2nd in 2003, 4th in 2002 and 2nd in 1990.

you don’t tend to make them from 3rd or 4th at all

you tend to make them from 1st or 2nd then lose them to teams based outside of Melbourne.

Yeah Pies have finished top2 just 4 times in AFL (one of those when we still enjoyed VicPark), every time we finish top 2 we made the GF - winning 2 (90 and 10) and losing 2 (03 and 11)

We have also made 2 GFs from outside top2, which we unsurprisingly lost....but to actually make it to the GF we beat the minor premier in a final....that is overperforming, nobody gave us a hope of beating Port in 02, or Richmond in 18 but we did.

Our H&A performance in AFL is reflected with our premierships, and we almost botched 2010.

You then have SA teams who have finished top2 in H&A on 10 occasions, but only made 3 GFs....seven times an SA side has finished top2, been gifted an arm chair ride to the GF and still bottled it.

It is laughable to continually read how they think they are hard done by. They get gifted undeserved H&A ladder positions, and home finals, and yet still are time and time again proven to not be up to it.

Same with WC, you blokes have had six top2 finishes (more than any Melbourne based club).

The non-Melbourne clubs dominate top2 H&A finishes, it really isn't hard to grasp when you realise that they are the group who actually have a home ground advantage, but still have convinced themselves they are disadvantaged....it is laughable.

 

[Blue1980]

I have always posted the comparisons of Carltons 2002 team to Adelaides 2012 side.

Carlton suffered from breaching the salary cap from 1998-2001. they were deprived of 1st and 2nd rounders from 2002-4. Carlton still had that 1990s mindset of keeping the likes of Craig Bradley, Andrew McKay and Brett Ratten for an extra year or 2 more than expected. What hurt carlton was not using full use of their 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounders from 1997-2000. That could of been 6-12 players in that 20-25 year old range that would of been handy and could of traded a couple of them out in that period too.

We all know why carlton finished bottom from 2005-7. Carlton went through playing no finals from 2002-08 because of it.

Crows on the other hand.... Were done over the Kurt Tippet situation at the end of 2012. They lost 1st and 2nd rounders in 2012 and 2013. Yet didnt go through a similar fate Like Carlton did and endure a 6-7 year run of playing no finals. Crows narrowly missed out on finals in 2013 and 2014. You can make a case they should of played finals in either or both those years. Still played finals in 2015-17.

So how come the crows still competed well despite no 1st rounders in 2012 and 2013? They recrited well in 2007-09. Ironic as in those 2007-9 period, they made finals. In 2007, they got Patty Dangerfield and Taylor Walker in that draft. In 2008, they got Phil davis, Shaun Mckernan and Rory Sloane. In 2009 they used their 1st rounder on Daniel Talia. Not a bad bunch of young talent in that 21-24 year old range.

As for the academies for the NSW and Queensland sides. I am for it. Victorians have the TAC cup and VFL to get local talent. WA teams have the WAFL, SA teams have the SANFL. If tassie ever gets an AFL side the Tassie state league will produce local talent too.

Suns and Lions have the QAFL and NEAFL which in no way produces the same quality of young talent the WAFL, SANFL and Tac cup does.

Swans have done ok with their Academy. They cant rely on the Sydney AFL to develop local talent.

All true, crows list was in a much better spot so hence wasn’t going to hit them as hard.

Even if we didn’t have those draft sanctions we were going to be at or near the bottom for an extended period.

 

[go_the_dockers]

This is such a sad thread.

Both you and Brisbane were given the perfect lead in, over the last two years. Brisbane were basically handed a GF if they could beat us, and you guys were the only interstate team to play BOTH your finals at home, both years. Difference is, Brisbane aren't sooking about it and accept their shortcomings. You guys however, seem to think you're entitled to be in a GF (judging by all your past players planning GF events, Rockliff stating it was pretty much guaranteed you'd make the GF and the circle-jerk from Adelaide media). Bulldogs had the worst prep, injured/missing players galore, weren't even allowed to train, travelled and quarantined 3 times in the space of 3 weeks, and absolutely annihilated you - who had the week off, had home ground advantage, had a full squad to pick from and had a perfect lead in with an easy win against us (your coach stated exactly this point post-match).

Instead of looking internally at what's wrong with your club, you instead choose to blame perceived outside influences. Which, upon deeper reading, you would actually realize is completely flawed.

Since West Coast won the first flag as an interstate team in '92, there have been 28 other flag winners - this is the breakdown:

1992 - West Coast
1993 - Essendon
1994 - West Coast
1995 - Carlton
1996 - North
1997 - Adelaide
1998 - Adelaide
1999 - North
2000 - Essendon
2001 - Brisbane
2002 - Brisbane
2003 - Brisbane
2004 - Port
2005 - Sydney
2006 - West Coast
2007 - Geelong
2008 - Hawthorn
2009 - Geelong
2010 - Collingwood
2011 - Geelong
2012 - Sydney
2013 - Hawthorn
2014 - Hawthorn
2015 - Hawthorn
2016 - Bulldogs
2017 - Richmond
2018 - West Coast
2019 - Richmond
2020 - Richmond
2021 - Bulldogs/Melbourne


So that's 30 years of data, with 12 flags being won by interstate sides. It's not a bad percentage, given that from 2001-2020, only 7 different teams won flags over that period - such was the strength of those powerhouse teams. If we had isolated this data from 1997-2006, there'd be an argument that interstate teams are far too dominant, given that there were only 6 at that time, and they'd won 8 out of the last 10.

If you want to look at just the last 15 years, and dig even deeper, you'll also notice that the percentage invariably goes WAY up, when you consider how many Grand Finals interstate teams have played in (beat 14-16 other teams from both interstate and Vic to get there) - rather than flags they've won:


2007 - Geelong vs Port
2008 - Hawthorn vs Geelong
2009 - Geelong vs St Kilda
2010 - Collingwood vs St Kilda
2011 - Geelong vs Collingwood
2012 - Sydney vs Hawthorn
2013 - Hawthorn vs Fremantle
2014 - Hawthorn vs Sydney
2015 - Hawthorn vs West Coast
2016 - Bulldogs vs Sydney
2017 - Richmond vs Adelaide
2018 - West Coast vs Collingwood
2019 - Richmond vs GWS
2020 - Richmond vs Geelong
2021 - Bulldogs/Melbourne

That means, that 9 out of the last 15, have had interstate teams play off in the big dance - about right (if not slightly over-represented) when it comes to the amount of interstate teams in the comp (18).

The other bit of data that massively stands out, is that Sydney and West Coast dominate both GF appearances and flags over the past 15 years - where the 6 other teams do not (5 out of those 9). That says something about those particular clubs, not interstate clubs in general.

Given you were handed a perfect lead in, weren't forced to play away, and were likely to be playing away on a neutral ground as opposed to the MCG - both this year and last year - it seems highly disingenuous for you to complain about 'Vic bias' when it's your own club that's responsible for its current position, and not anyone or anything else.

Enjoy the persecution complex, I'm sure it'll help you cope better.

How many non Victorian sides won a premierships, with out a Salary cap advantage, or a squad based largely on there initial squad with a large number of home grown players.

I have the Eagles 2018, and 2006.

This is why you have not seen many flags the last 15 years, is because these advantages have been taken away.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Probably a coincidence. 2001-06 premiers were all interstate.

From a mathematical point of view there is nothing strange about it at all. Variance and randomness exist.

 

[franjon]

Not me. It's a long haul but the League's investment in the Suns and Giants will pay off eventually IE increase the draft and playing pool from those regions. Some fans unfortunately cannot see the big picture.

Whats the big picture? Setting up these teams with a flurry of draft picks and concessions and influencing experienced successful coaches to believe in a train wreck of an idea to begin with? It really came as no surprise to me that McLachlan approached Clarkson about the Gold Coast job. Its been going on 14 years and they still haven't found anything to warrant their investment. But they'll keep trying, we can't be looking stupid.

 

[B4Bear]

Eagles fans talking about the supposed inequality of the MCG for finals, when they, despite having the biggest home ground advantage in the competition didn't even make the finals.

And what about this years finals? All the Vic teams, regardless of ladder position were forced to play away from home.

And last year too. Or do we discount 2020 and 2021 because it doesn't suit the perpetually persecuted narrative?

Be better at football and stop whining.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Whats the big picture? Setting up these teams with a flurry of draft picks and concessions and influencing experienced successful coaches to believe in a train wreck of an idea to begin with? It really came as no surprise to me that McLachlan approached Clarkson about the Gold Coast job. Its been going on 14 years and they still haven't found anything to warrant their investment. But they'll keep trying, we can't be looking stupid.

It took a long while before the Brisbane Bears, and before them the relocated Sydney Swans came good.

Look granted I can see the criticsm of having a team up at the Gold Coast, but having a team in Australia's largest growing population belt in Western Sydney was absolutely the right call.

 

[Shadow89]

How many non Victorian sides won a premierships, with out a Salary cap advantage, or a squad based largely on there initial squad with a large number of home grown players.

I have the Eagles 2018, and 2006.

This is why you have not seen many flags the last 15 years, is because these advantages have been taken away.

But what gets lost in this argument is, how are all these teams making Grand Finals? They literally beat 14-16 teams to qualify for the decider, and just fall short against genuine powerhouse dynasties of the past decade and a half. The same happened in reverse with Brisbane 01-03. Some teams are just too good when it counts.

The real measure IMO, is how many interstate sides are making finals each year, and that always accurately represents interstate sides, more often that not. In the past 10 years alone you have:

2012 - West Coast, Sydney, Fremantle, Adelaide
2013 - Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide
2014 - Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide
2015 - West Coast, Fremantle, Sydney, Adelaide
2016 - Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide, GWS
2017 - Sydney, Port Adelaide, West Coast, GWS, Adelaide
2018 - West Coast, Sydney, GWS
2019 - Brisbane, GWS, West Coast
2020 - Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast
2021 - Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide, Brisbane

*******************************************

This means, that of the Final 8 over the space of a decade (cumulatively 80 spots available in the Top 8 over the last decade), 36 have been taken by interstate sides. This leaves 44 sides from Vic teams. There are 18 teams in the league, and 8 are interstate sides (roughly rounds up to 45%). 36/80 = you guessed it: 45%.

Interstate teams are neither underrepresented or overrepresented when it comes to finals over the past decade. Just because they don't win the bigconsec dance, doesn't mean they don't consistently qualify for finals and Top 4. They simply fail to beat the 'best' teams on the day. Whether that has to do with the MCG as a venue is largely up for debate - and it should be -, but finals series' are never overwhelmingly Vic, despite this perceived notion that Vic teams are overrepresented.

The best example we've had of home ground advantage not meaning that much, is consecutively having two Vic teams reach the big dance in years where the GF has been guaranteed to be played interstate.

There's a lot more at play here than just 'Vic bias.' List build of certain teams, injury concerns, unable to beat the powerhouse teams like Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong etc. Is what it is, and there are some certain arguments that have merit, but not the self-serving victimhood that this whole thread and its OP are about.

 

[doppleganger]

In the past 10 years alone you have:

2012 - West Coast, Sydney, Fremantle, Adelaide
2013 - Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide
2014 - Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide
2015 - West Coast, Fremantle, Sydney, Adelaide
2016 - Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide, GWS
2017 - Sydney, Port Adelaide, West Coast, GWS, Adelaide
2018 - West Coast, Sydney, GWS
2019 - Brisbane, GWS, West Coast
2020 - Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast
2021 - Sydney, GWS, Port Adelaide, Brisbane

*******************************************

The underlined teams are the ones who have lost home finals.

The non-vic sides get given every opportunity, H&A ladder favours them, but they get shown up on their home deck in finals.

SA teams now have 10 top2 H&A finishes, but only gone onto make the GF on 3 occasions, 7 times an SA side that was supposedly the "higher ranked" team has lost at home.

AFL needs to actually look at rebalancing the H&A so all of the dud non-vic sides stop getting undeserved top2 finishes, as then at least they cam have an honourable PF loss away from their supporters.