Politics Why Don't We Talk More About Rural vs Urban Voters?

[RedStarUncle]

We know there is a divide between rural voters and urban voters, and that divide has largely been part of politics throughout western democracies. But why don't we talk about it more, especially as since that divide seems to be as extreme as ever and has contributed to Brexit, Trump, a resurgence of Pauline Hanson and growth in power of Bob Katter, and variously right-lurching governments across the world.

As an example... Pennsylvania was a crucial state that swung for Trump in 2024. Broken exit polls down by counties though, those making up the greater Philadelphia area voted about 1.2mil vs 0.8mil in Harris's favour. Pittsburgh voted 420k to 280k for Harris. Smaller cities like Scranton, Harrisburg, and Bethlehem seem to have narrowly voted for Trump. Yet he carried the state on the back of a votes between 70% and 80% in many of the towns in between those cities. That just seems like an extreme difference to me in what feels like the same part of the world but based on whether you live in a city or a small town.

US election 2024 results and exit poll in maps and charts

Analysis of the results of the election.

www.bbc.com

Using 2016 as an example when Trump first one (because the data for 2024 is still being put together) and knowing what we do about how Trump won that election... it's worth thinking that Miami's 2.8mil voters voted 64-34 for Clinton, Houston's 4.7mil people voted 54-42 for Clinton, Dallas's 2.6mil voted 61-35 for Clinton, even somewhere like Birmingham, Alabama had a 52-44 voted for Clinton in a city of 700k voters. These are clear victories in a cities despite not even being competitive statewide in the highly rural parts of America.

US County Electoral Map - Land Area vs Population - Engaging Data

County-level Election Results from 2020 and 2016 The interface has been updated and you can now also zoom in and look at a specific state’s election results. Click here to view a visualization that looks more explicitly at the correlation between population density and votes by county. This...

engaging-data.com

As a city-dweller as most of us are in Australia, my question is what is the motivation in those rural areas to vote so strongly to the right even when nearby cities will comfortably vote left. It feels like while we debate the details of what right and left voters in cities are thinking and how their votes are trending...... rural voters have just been left locked in on the right. Even the LNP and Tories seem to take them for granted and have started to lose them to smaller far-right blocks (not a new phenomenon obviously given the history of the Country Party / Nationals in Australia... but they've gone from what felt like almost irrelevant in the 90s to seemingly like the core base of the LNP today).

So what's going on with rural voters across the world?

 

[peetoo]

Just thank lucky stars we have a desert not a midwest

 

[faible]

We know there is a divide between rural voters and urban voters, and that divide has largely been part of politics throughout western democracies. But why don't we talk about it more, especially as since that divide seems to be as extreme as ever and has contributed to Brexit, Trump, a resurgence of Pauline Hanson and growth in power of Bob Katter, and variously right-lurching governments across the world.

As an example... Pennsylvania was a crucial state that swung for Trump in 2024. Broken exit polls down by counties though, those making up the greater Philadelphia area voted about 1.2mil vs 0.8mil in Harris's favour. Pittsburgh voted 420k to 280k for Harris. Smaller cities like Scranton, Harrisburg, and Bethlehem seem to have narrowly voted for Trump. Yet he carried the state on the back of a votes between 70% and 80% in many of the towns in between those cities. That just seems like an extreme difference to me in what feels like the same part of the world but based on whether you live in a city or a small town.

US election 2024 results and exit poll in maps and charts

Analysis of the results of the election.

www.bbc.com

Using 2016 as an example when Trump first one (because the data for 2024 is still being put together) and knowing what we do about how Trump won that election... it's worth thinking that Miami's 2.8mil voters voted 64-34 for Clinton, Houston's 4.7mil people voted 54-42 for Clinton, Dallas's 2.6mil voted 61-35 for Clinton, even somewhere like Birmingham, Alabama had a 52-44 voted for Clinton in a city of 700k voters. These are clear victories in a cities despite not even being competitive statewide in the highly rural parts of America.

US County Electoral Map - Land Area vs Population - Engaging Data

County-level Election Results from 2020 and 2016 The interface has been updated and you can now also zoom in and look at a specific state’s election results. Click here to view a visualization that looks more explicitly at the correlation between population density and votes by county. This...

engaging-data.com

As a city-dweller as most of us are in Australia, my question is what is the motivation in those rural areas to vote so strongly to the right even when nearby cities will comfortably vote left. It feels like while we debate the details of what right and left voters in cities are thinking and how their votes are trending...... rural voters have just been left locked in on the right. Even the LNP and Tories seem to take them for granted and have started to lose them to smaller far-right blocks (not a new phenomenon obviously given the history of the Country Party / Nationals in Australia... but they've gone from what felt like almost irrelevant in the 90s to seemingly like the core base of the LNP today).

So what's going on with rural voters across the world?

Rural voters are a much smaller cohort here, so whilst their vote matters (the Nationals are overrepresented for example) their vote usually isn't enough to tip and entire election like in the US and their electoral college system. So they get ignored, like in Victoria with the State Government where they do SFA for rural voters and still get reelected.

If you listen to people who vote for a guy like Katter, it's because he represents what they care about. The left-leaning parties don't tend to do a great job (IMO) of putting forward policies that will appeal specifically to rural voters, and the ALP isn't particularly left-leaning anyway IMO.

Many of the nominally left parties are in a weird place right now. In Australia a number of their traditional blue collar voters (e.g. tradies) are quite conservative high income earners and so don't really want to see any real progressive changes, and those who are more passionate about progressive changes tend to be the urban population who are more impacted by housing affordability (for example).

 

[Andre]

There isn't that much of a difference in percentages between Australia and the US - 86/87% for Australia - 82/83% for the US, for living in Urban areas. I think there's a few factors that are in play in the US that aren't here.

One, there's not as great a cultural divide here. Gun ownership/culture here has never been the same as the US. With some exceptions, even those in rural areas bought into Howard's gun buy back and understand the need to restrict firearms. In the US those in rural areas often feel 'those woke Democrats' in cities are trying to take away their constitutional right, no matter how sensible any proposal. Despite some in the Coalition (and a few in the ALP) being anti-abortion, none seriously want to make it illegal. Even Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison, evil demons to the Left, didn't try to make it illegal. Rural areas in both countries are more conservative, but there's no major party here deliberately stoking division about abortion (or gun rights) for votes.

Second is having compulsory voting here. This forces parties to the centre. The US, with the need to appeal to the base (read away from the Centre), means free reign for many (in both parties) on insulting those who vote for the other side. With the need to capture the centre to win seats here, politicians are reluctant to insult those voters they feel they need. There's plenty of Republicans openly contemptuous of those living in cities and plenty of Democrats who put down anyone outside cities. When both sides are doing this, they are continuing to worsen the divide.

Third, Australia may have some light hearted 'country bumpkin' / 'ghetto dweller' banter, but it's part of the Australian image, that the country likes to sell to itself and others, is we're all tanned men and women, rugged enough to work the land (even if we happen to live in a city). Things like the Royal Shows in each state are pitched to bridge any divide, for the benefit of both. There's no equivalent in the US, of 'come to the USA and travel to Butt**** Kentucky!', like there is to go to 'The Outback' when selling Australia.

Fourth, by having a minor party (Nationals), as representing many of those rural areas, without them getting (much) city votes, they are always going to be beholden to others (Libs) in regards to policies that aren't specific to rural areas (I.e. the 'cultural wars').