Will Port really be the slider in 2014?

[Tas]

After looking at the ladder prediction thread, it seems Port are the popular choice as the slider in 2014 with perceived harder draw the main reason.

Popular doesn't mean a whole lot. We were the hot wooden spoon favourite in 2007 and we made the top 4.

I think they will have a challenge to sustain the level of performance next year because they wont get the luxury to be the hunter as often, teams usually do a lot of their strategic work over the pre-season and pull apart teams and focus on the weaknesses of teams. It is fair to say clubs do not invest the same amount of effort on weak teams so teams can now and then make a big jump forward.

However, nobody gifts games to any side. No team wins 10+ games and win a final if they do not have the basis for a good team.

I think it will be harder to peg back leads in 2014, however, if Port are able to address the early game woes they could add more to their game than they concede. It is going to come down to if Port play the same in 2014 or change things up enough to maintain their 2013 performance or improve on it.

 

[Harold Larwood]

They'll be around the mark in 2014.

Sure they have a harder draw, however another pre-season into the young guys should cancel that out.

They've done a lot of things right. Ken Hinkley and Darren Burgess' appointments were masterstrokes and Kochie is a lovable dork who's doing great things for Port over in the East. The lack of proven tall forwards is a concern however Butcher or one of Mitch Harvey or Mason Shaw could emerge next season.

To be honest, as long as Port finish at least mid-table, it won't be a disaster.

With that list and age profile, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of Premiership Cups in the trophy cabinet at Alberton within the next five years.

That's a strange thing for a die-hard Crows fan to say! Oh, you're a pathetic Port Power supporter masquerading as a Crows supporter. Carry on.

 

[crafty_bernardo]

From the pre-season videos in Dubai Mason Shaw is tracking really well. I reckon we'll see him feature in half a dozen and a bit more, games in 2014.

 

[Richo83]

For most of my life Geelong were finals chokers.

And now they're not. I'm kinda over Carlton fans talking up themselves so much. They lucked into the finals due to Essendon's off field activities, then managed one finals win against a Richmond side who only turned up for one half. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I do think Port need another forward though, Westhoff is decent but often plays as a flanker, not a tall. Sometimes he reminds me of a rich man's Jack Watts. Schulz is IMO the only genuine KPF they have.

 

[Janus]

And now they're not. I'm kinda over Carlton fans talking up themselves so much. They lucked into the finals due to Essendon's off field activities, then managed one finals win against a Richmond side who only turned up for one half. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I do think Port need another forward though, Westhoff is decent but often plays as a flanker, not a tall. Sometimes he reminds me of a rich man's Jack Watts. Schulz is IMO the only genuine KPF they have.

We definitely need another KPF to stand up - Butcher or Shaw. It's why I'm not adverse to slipping down the ladder a bit this year - if all things are equal, and the thing that is costing us is a genuine KPF, this is the year to do it.

Then BOOM! in 2015.

 

[dinger]

That's a strange thing for a die-hard Crows fan to say! Oh, you're a pathetic Port Power supporter masquerading as a Crows supporter. Carry on.

Uhh what? I'm a heavy PAFC fan but I'm willing to at least try and analyse other teams and not be a one eyed **** head. How on earth is that a strange thing for a Crows fan to say?

 

[IanW]

We definitely need another KPF to stand up - Butcher or Shaw. It's why I'm not adverse to slipping down the ladder a bit this year - if all things are equal, and the thing that is costing us is a genuine KPF, this is the year to do it.

Then BOOM! in 2015.

If this doesnt happen, how likely are Port to clear cap room to go after Boyd or Patton ?

 

[Go the Guts]

Next year is a different year. From year to year major raises and falls are the exception and not the norm.

We won 12 minor round games last season so we're more likely to win 9 to 15 than anything else. Nine wins sees us just above the bottom four and 15 wins sees us pushing for a top four spot.

Anything can happen.

Yep. The year after being ' a kick off a grannie' we lost all our firepower and ended up out of the 8. We weren't to know, and most of us expected to just do it all again. Things happen, players get injured, nothing's a given in footy. Guess that's part of its attraction!

 

[Harold Larwood]

Uhh what? I'm a heavy PAFC fan but I'm willing to at least try and analyse other teams and not be a one eyed **** head. How on earth is that a strange thing for a Crows fan to say?

He's not a Crows fan - his guard was dropped last week when he had a massive go at some Crows fans on the bay whilst lauding the brilliant Port power - unfortunately he was still logged in as Croweater.

 

[Croweater]

That's a strange thing for a die-hard Crows fan to say! Oh, you're a pathetic Port Power supporter masquerading as a Crows supporter. Carry on.

I'm a neutral.

I believe Port Adelaide has a bright future and for the record, believe that their list is significantly more balanced and talented than Adelaide's.

And the reason I voiced my displeasure at you and a couple of others was due to your complete moronic opinions and actions on this forum which most likely reflects your attitude in real life.

Now look at you. Here I am having an opinion on an up and coming team (on the Main Board and not the Bay mind you) and you continue to attack me. I've seen some absolute dickheads on BigFooty but you are at the top of my dickhead list. Now that's saying something.

 

[Harold Larwood]

I'm a neutral.

I believe Port Adelaide has a bright future and for the record, believe that their list is significantly more balanced and talented than Adelaide's.

And the reason I voiced my displeasure at you and a couple of others was due to your complete moronic opinions and actions on this forum which most likely reflects your attitude in real life.

Now look at you. Here I am having an opinion on an up and coming team (on the Main Board and not the Bay mind you) and you continue to attack me. I've seen some absolute dickheads on BigFooty but you are at the top of my dickhead list. Now that's saying something.

Aliases belong on the bay chump. Move along.

 

[Croweater]

Aliases belong on the bay chump. Move along.

And complete tosspots like you who have no discernible qualities and an inability to have a shred of common decency should receive a permanent ban. Move along.

 

[John Hart Jnr]

Yep. The year after being ' a kick off a grannie' we lost all our firepower and ended up out of the 8. We weren't to know, and most of us expected to just do it all again. Things happen, players get injured, nothing's a given in footy. Guess that's part of its attraction!

Yep it doesn't take much. If we lost Boak, Wingard or Schulz we would struggle.

Likewise if lost Tex, Danger or Jacobs you would struggle too. (As was shown last year with Tex)

 

[DJMonstaaMasher]

If Port miss the finals, they will make make prelims for sure, just like Geelong in 2005 - 2007, 6th in 2005, 10th 2006 then shot up to first and of course won the premiership. I bet Port will be at their best in 2015. How about Sydney? Last in 1994, Grand Final Runner - Ups in 1996. And Collingwood, last in 1999 and consecutive grand final appearances in 2002 - 2003

 

[Dylan8]

Debatable about Boak, the team beat a red hot Sydney without him.

 

[DJMonstaaMasher]

Blues will belt Port in Round 1, having not won an away game against Carlton since 2006. It will be the first time competed on this round, and Carlton's first home game at night against Port Adelaide since Round 11, 2007.

 

[Dylan8]

Yeah because that's a sure way of predicting it. We hadn't beat Sydney since 06 iirc until this year, did we get belted in that game?

 

[LeoMessi]

I think we will be pretty much around the same mark as this year give or take 2 more places. Potentially miss the finals but could finish as high as 5th maybe. We've finally got the midfield mix going in the latter stages of the season this year and we've added depth and experience to the team now. With one more pre-season under our belt, we should definitely improve but so will the quality of our opposition so it could go either way.

IMO, games against the North, Adelaide and Bulldogs (who I'm tipping will be the other climbers next season) will define our season as well as the round 1 game. If we were to play Carlton at MCG, I would've given ourselves every chance but at the Dome, we're traditionally not very good. I also predict we will break the Geelong hoodoo this season and hopefully beat them at our ground.

 

[Ironmonger]

Others have already made a similar point, but personally I saw the Power as near the top of a group of clubs stretching from Richmond in 5th down to West Coast at 13th. A couple more injuries to the wrong players and Port could've missed the finals by several places.

That's not an insult. No matter which way you look at it they've done remarkably well in the last 12 months and there's a bright future for them if they continue to do the key things right.

But it does mean that not all that much would have to go wrong for them to 'slide' in 2014. I don't have a great record at predicting how seasons turn out, at least not in December, but I reckon there's a good chance Geelong and Sydney could fall down and Gold Coast could rise up into that big pool of mid-range teams, so the difference between the top four and the bottom six might be very small indeed next year.

 

[Chilli Con Incarnate]

Port look good. They have talented young players that have high ceilings. The drive they showed in that elimination final was scary. I know I am bias but on paper we should not have lost that game, Port gave us a lesson in desire and hunger that showed us up for fools.

With natural improvement in their young guns Port will be a force in 2-3 years. This season will be very interesting and hard to predict (this is really the case for everyone, exciting times ahead!) for the power. I am split between just missing out on the 4, and just missing on the 8.

 

[Powerstufff]

If Port miss the finals, they will make make prelims for sure ...

I've run this through a Defence Dept super-computer and cannot crack the code.

Debatable about Boak, the team beat a red hot Sydney without him.

The most I can say about that is a 'horses for courses' argument, that match-ups on a day sometimes trump overall form. It's not something we could get away with too often.

 

[Mitt Romney]

For most of my life Geelong were finals chokers.

But we weren't talking about my team pumping anybody were we

 

[PowerForGood]

The problem for Port is that things are gonna be a lot harder next year. This year we had a charmed injury run, an easy draw and the element of surprise, and we managed 12 wins. With two of those advantages definitely gone and the chances of repeating our charmed injury run unknown (if Schulz in particular goes down, we're pretty screwed) we'll have to improve significantly just to match last year's effort of 12 wins, let alone surpass it.

Given the youth and talent of the side and the fact that they'll all have had another pre-season to learn under an AFL quality coach and fitness guy which Port haven't had since 2007, I do expect on-field improvement, but I don't expect much improvement in the win-loss column. If we finish with 12 or so wins again and continue to unearth good young players I'll be pretty satisfied with the year, especially if that's enough to make the finals.

Agree, but I am a little interested about how affected we will be by the harder draw.

In 2014, we have 12 top 8 teams and 10 bottom 10 teams from the 2013 final placings.
In 2013, we had 11 top 8 teams and 11 bottom 10 teams from the 2012 final placings.
So only 1 game difference.

Also, out of those top 8 teams from 2012, we went 6 wins 7 losses (incl finals) - we beat West Coast, Collingwood (twice), Adelaide (twice), and Sydney. Not a bad return.
From the 11 games against bottom 10 teams, we went 7 wins 4 losses.

If we replicated this form next year, we'd win 5 or 6 games against top 8 teams, and 6-7 wins against bottom 10 teams. Averaging out at between 11-13 games, which puts us on 8th-10th. So I don't think we need to improve significantly to match last year. Where we finish will depend on us (not our draw).

 

[PowerForGood]

The first 5 rounds this year set up ports season. Melbourne, GWS, Crows, Gold Coast, West Coast, for 5 wins. After that gifted run they won 10 out of 18, including an immediate 5 losses on the trot. Other things in their favour were honeymoon first year periods with their head coach and fitness guy, along with a number of positive off field changes. The gloss can wear off some of this, and who knows how much that will affect them in the next year. I'd predict that they'll be around the 8 again, probably won't make 5th like this year, but I ouldn't underestimate them too much, they're a proud lot.

Depends how you look at our season.

The first 10 rounds, Port Adelaide were 5-5
The last 12 rounds, Port Adelaide were 7-5. In those 12 rounds, Port Adelaide defeated Sydney, Collingwood and the Adelaide Crows (teams that finished 2012 in 2nd, 3rd and 4th position)

 

[JeddaB]

No. No they will not.