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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Will the good d'ters pick Drummond and Chapman?
- Thread starter Knight Ryders
- Start date
- Tagged users None
In that case try the opposite. Picking him from round 1 and trade him out if he gets a long term injury
If you have balls or are really really stupid like myself, then pick them.
You will either reap the benefits or crash and burn. More likely the latter, but Im taking some risks this year... if you want mediocrity this year, kick back and select your 22 game plodders... every man and his dog will be in contention this year with the increased salary cap. If you want to go for glory on the other hand....
You will either reap the benefits or crash and burn. More likely the latter, but Im taking some risks this year... if you want mediocrity this year, kick back and select your 22 game plodders... every man and his dog will be in contention this year with the increased salary cap. If you want to go for glory on the other hand....
I predict the winner of 2009 will not start with either Drummond or Chapman.
Well I've been training the house down.
Maybe, but I think the winner will take a similar chapman/drummond risk on a few players. You need to take risks to win and need a bit of luck along the way.
Every player has their own risks associated, there is no such thing as a risk free player.
I would prefer to reduce my known risk, Chapman and Drummond have very well documented injury problems. It is obviously possible that 2009 will be the year that they break their previous trend. Just like it was possible that in 2008 Pavlich and Lucas would no longer be bullet proof.
I just prefer to reduce the known risks and I will take the bad luck, because I highly doubt there will be one team that does not get their fair share of bad luck.
Bad luck is not when you select Drummond or Chapman and they happen to miss games due to injury. Bad luck is when you select Pavlich and he goes down injured. Bad luck is when H Shaw decides to tell a porky pie and get suspended for the last 4 games.
Yes, you have to take risks to win Dream Team. My preferred risks is a player not jumping to the next level and having a breakout year, your Jones and Dyson's of 2008.
It's Animal Farm all over again.
Everybody's risky but some are more risky than others.
Yes Uber Lord Dogs, king of the pigs...
foley4brownlow
Team Captain
yea good post there tarqs. not 1 player in the afl is immune to injuries,sure some have good runs and some bad runs but every player can get injured at some point or another. personally i am taking the gamble on chapman he only missed 5 games last year and he hasnt hasd that many injuries. i rekan he will play 20+ and average 100+ absolute gun when fit. could even be the highest scoring forward. for a player of his potential he looks at a great price at 410k. if you want him get him at the start coz he wont stay at that price for long.
I like your thinking. There is enough hidden risks in DT without taking on the obvious ones. You need some luck to be the overall winner, but I reckon you could finish in the top 1% just using the percentages & good risk management. I think most DT'ers believe luck plays a bigger part than it does and then take unnessary risks to try and formulate their 'lucky' 'unique' team. The best DT'ers were often the best in previous years as well, proving that its not luck that gets them there. It amuses how some people seem to be hitting their heads against a brick wall stating that Chapman etc burnt them 2 years in a row but this year they are picking him again! 'Once a dog, always a dog' I always say. A leopard doesnt change his spots is usually pretty good advice. Even if Chappy is good to go, his TOG may be less to prevent a flare up?
I think thatd make a good sig!
lol
the winner last year made mistakes in their opening squad. Have a look at Ricky Dyson.
1 player is not the difference if he gets injured of fails. But he can sure make a difference if he plays well.
Sorry mate, it was a joke that I am not picking Drummond and Chapman... Since we all know that I plan to win DT this year.
The amount of times I hear people say that luck plays a big role is amazing. If this is the case, then people like Convicts, baxters, Skank... have more than their fair share of luck.
I sound like I am repeating myself here, but picking Drummond and having him miss 8 games is not bad luck. Picking Chapman and having a late withdrawal followed by missing 2 more matches, is not bad luck.
I'm sure that one or both of Chapman and Drummond will break their trend and people will pat themselves on the back. I'm not sure that I am willing to take that level of known risk, especially with the backline rookies and other forward options.
As Dogs has posted a number of times, Dyson was not a massive mistake. He still made $50,000 and was scoring points. If that is one of your "mistakes" for the year, then bring it on.
The same people say that about poker and they suck at it
Dyson was only $200k and purely a cash cow. Chapman is $410k and a premium you plan on keeping the entire year. I prefer my premiums to play 22 games. DWD made a great point about Convicts side. Basically every one of his keepers played 22 games - bar one or two that played 20-21. Durability should not be understated. In saying that I think you do need to take some risks to win.
Smart man
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Speaking of poker, I was leading my league and then the finals came and I ran into some bad luck....
So when I win, it is all skill, when I lose.....
People that pick Drummond and Chapman may end up talking about either their skill or bad luck.
IMO you would have to be a very, very brave man (or woman) to choose Chapman. He is ridiculously tempting at that price - about 10 points underpriced, along with a solid pre-season under his belt and talk of him moving into the midfield he seems too good to be true. But his body could let go at any stage, I just can't trust those soft-tissue injuries.
- Jul 12, 2003
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The last time he had a pre season he played every game. He's had a full pre season this year. So you take these things into account...maybe I'm considering him because I had him in 06 but not in 07 or 08 so wasn't burnt. Similar to those considering Brennan (before the quad inj) who weren't burnt by him after trading him in in early 07.
Incredibly small sample size and correlation =/= causation.
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