Will the good d'ters pick Drummond and Chapman?

[Benno_900]

Thats the question and the answer can be found in the last 3 years of his career. If i picked him i would be rapt if he got through to round 6 avg 80 than try and upgrade him.

There is no point picking him if you're going to 'upgrade' him later on. I know it's the major issue here but injuries aside, he will be in the top 10 defenders so I'd only be picking him as a keeper.

If you know you're going to trade him in anticipation of an injury, then why pick him in your initial squad? Trades are worth more than that.

 

[LemmingMaster]

If you select Drummond, you've selected him as a keeper and you will only trade him when/if he gets injured.

 

[the_insid3r]

If you select Drummond, you've selected him as a keeper and you will only trade him when/if he gets injured.

or if he's not performing up to the standard that is expected of a keeper.

 

[Ausyid]

or if he's not performing up to the standard that is expected of a keeper.

Then you really shouldn't have picked him

 

[jack_lord]

You pick mid-pricers for a reason - generally to become keepers. Especially in defence! Say you have 8 mid-pricers in your team, you would want to nail 6 of them minimum (Im not calling guys around 200k mid-pricers - everyone knows theyre upgrade targets).

Picking Drummond basically means you need him to do something he has never done before. He is 50-50 at best to become a keeper. Big, big gamble. There are a lot more durable players at Drummond's value - get on them and leave them for the season. Save the trades for where you want to use them - making money or bringing in the big guns! Bang bang!

 

[the_insid3r]

Then you really shouldn't have picked him

don't confuse people anymore than they already are

on a serious note, I have taken a no risk policy as far as my backline goes....

 

[Kaizen]

One thing I definately won't be doing if I pick him up and he goes down with an injury is coming on this board and complaining about my rotten luck.

Pick him with your eyes wide open.

Higher risk = potential higher return.

 

[Daz]

You pick mid-pricers for a reason - generally to become keepers. Especially in defence! Say you have 8 mid-pricers in your team, you would want to nail 6 of them minimum (Im not calling guys around 200k mid-pricers - everyone knows theyre upgrade targets).

Picking Drummond basically means you need him to do something he has never done before. He is 50-50 at best to become a keeper. Big, big gamble. There are a lot more durable players at Drummond's value - get on them and leave them for the season. Save the trades for where you want to use them - making money or bringing in the big guns! Bang bang!

Why does Drummond have to be a keeper? Obviously him playing 20+ games would be ideal but we obviously can't expect that to happen. My point is, Drummond has just as much room for improvement, if not more, than your Houlihan, Lucas and Skipworth types. You hope that those players will improve by 20+ points per game on their price. Drummond can definately do that, plus there is the bonus that if he stays fit he's a keeper.

 

[Ausyid]

don't confuse people anymore than they already are

on a serious note, I have taken a no risk policy as far as my backline goes....

So you're avoiding Cornes, Raines, Grimes, Birchall, Hill, Malceski, JWS, etc, etc, etc?

Hard to go with no risks this year when a lot of tempting players have a variety of risks attached (job security, durability, role change).

One thing I definately won't be doing if I pick him up and he goes down with an injury is coming on this board and complaining about my rotten luck.

Pick him with your eyes wide open.

Higher risk = potential higher return.

Spot on. If you pick Drummond and he goes down you have no one to blame but yourself. I'm usually a risk taker, but this one is making me far too uneasy...

 

[the_insid3r]

So you're avoiding Cornes, Raines, Grimes, Birchall, Hill, Malceski, JWS, etc, etc, etc?

Hard to go with no risks this year when a lot of tempting players have a variety of risks attached (job security, durability, role change).

don't mean this literally as there is risk with any player, but to answer you question, yes I'm avoiding all but 1 of the players you listed and that is Cornes as he is not what I would consider a "real risk" like say Drummond.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Why does Drummond have to be a keeper?

Because if he achieves the improvement wanted of a cash cow, he will move into keepers status.

If you're selecting him knowing that he will be injured, you're rolling the dice that he gets injured at the perfect time for your upgrade. If you don't call him a keeper, then you're basically taking the risk that he gets injured at the perfect moment, premium has tanked and he has increased in price enough.

In saying all that, I completely understand your logic and it just adds another aspect to the Drummond selection.

 

[Daz]

Because if he achieves the improvement wanted of a cash cow, he will move into keepers status.

If you're selecting him knowing that he will be injured, you're rolling the dice that he gets injured at the perfect time for your upgrade. If you don't call him a keeper, then you're basically taking the risk that he gets injured at the perfect moment, premium has tanked and he has increased in price enough.

In saying all that, I completely understand your logic and it just adds another aspect to the Drummond selection.

Yeah, your absolutely right Tarqs. The difference between him and a guy like Houlihan is with Houlihan you can trade him at his peak. With Drummond it's just luck of the draw, he could even injure himself early in a game. The enticing thing about Drummond is, he arguably has the most upside of any player AND he can become a keeper. The obvious downside is that the chances of him playing enough games to be a keeper are very low.

But when you throw in a full pre-season he becomes very hard to resist. However, at this stage, I think I'll pass.

 

[Ausyid]

But when you throw in a full pre-season he becomes very hard to resist. However, at this stage, I think I'll pass.

But..but..you haven't considered the change of running style?!

 

[Juddtastic]

But..but..you haven't considered the change of running style?!

Or that piece of magic tape i saw him wearing just above his calf

 

[DaVe86]

Yeah, your absolutely right Tarqs. The difference between him and a guy like Houlihan is with Houlihan you can trade him at his peak. With Drummond it's just luck of the draw, he could even injure himself early in a game. The enticing thing about Drummond is, he arguably has the most upside of any player AND he can become a keeper. The obvious downside is that the chances of him playing enough games to be a keeper are very low.

But when you throw in a full pre-season he becomes very hard to resist. However, at this stage, I think I'll pass.

But hang on...isnt Houlihan also coming off an injury prone year??? That is why he is at such a cheap price. Seems to me as big a risk...just a bit cheaper.


If you roll the dice on Drummond good on you. I think it is worth having good depth in your backline if you are going to pick him...but it could win you a lot of points. He is only going up in value

 

[Saint KFC]

But hang on...isnt Houlihan also coming off an injury prone year??? That is why he is at such a cheap price. Seems to me as big a risk...just a bit cheaper.

I wouldn't say that it was an injury prone year, he was injured in Round 3 and didn't return to Round 21. Before that, his durability has been solid -

2007 - 21
2006 - 22
2005 - 17
2004 - 21
2003 - 22
2002 - 18
2001 - 21

Not sure how many of these games that he missed early in his career where due to being omitted from the team, rather than injury.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

But hang on...isnt Houlihan also coming off an injury prone year??? That is why he is at such a cheap price. Seems to me as big a risk...just a bit cheaper.


If you roll the dice on Drummond good on you. I think it is worth having good depth in your backline if you are going to pick him...but it could win you a lot of points. He is only going up in value

As KFC said, its a totally different kettle of fish. No comparison whatsoever between Drummond and Houlihan.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I think people are overrating Drummond are little to much he has avg over 69 once in his career and is yet to play more than 14 games in one season. His chances of becoming a keeper are not 50/50 their more 20/80 (20% chance he will). For him to be a keeper he must avg at his very best and also play 20+ games. Hes yet to achieve the later and has only achieved the avg once in his career. Drummond would be picked as a keeper but if he gets injured than he can also be upgraded. I wish people didnt talk me into getting him. Im going to try and not buy it.

 

[SkankDanker]

But..but..you haven't considered the change of running style?!

I think it's Tom Hawkins who has changed his running style isn't it? If so maybe he should be a lock. Like literally, in rugby league. I haven't heard Drummond has done it though..

I think people are overrating Drummond are little to much he has avg over 69 once in his career and is yet to play more than 14 games in one season. His chances of becoming a keeper are not 50/50 their more 20/80 (20% chance he will). For him to be a keeper he must avg at his very best and also play 20+ games. Hes yet to achieve the later and has only achieved the avg once in his career. Drummond would be picked as a keeper but if he gets injured than he can also be upgraded. I wish people didnt talk me into getting him. Im going to try and not buy it.

Them's the facts DWD, but I think people constantly hold out for a bit of luck and I don't think there is anything wrong with that. Some cursed footballers have been OK DT wise at times such as James Hird (he would love me talking about him in DT terms!) - the issue obviously is the torment they cause in terms of trading or benching.

Drummond can do it all, but, a bit like Chappy, whenever he hits the deck you wonder if he is going to get up. I find that extremely difficult to deal with during the year, though in pre-season it is hard to visualise the real season so you can get a little bit carried away.

There are a few cheap mids this year, I agree with an earlier comment that if you played DT last year and pick injury prone players you aren't going to find much sympathy on this board if it goes pear shaped.

But maybe we'll resent you if it doesn't.

 

[Kaizen]

I think people are overrating Drummond are little to much he has avg over 69 once in his career and is yet to play more than 14 games in one season. His chances of becoming a keeper are not 50/50 their more 20/80 (20% chance he will). For him to be a keeper he must avg at his very best and also play 20+ games. Hes yet to achieve the later and has only achieved the avg once in his career. Drummond would be picked as a keeper but if he gets injured than he can also be upgraded. I wish people didnt talk me into getting him. Im going to try and not buy it.

See here's the thing........If you are judging whether to pick him up or not based on past performance alone, it's a no brainer................you leave him the hell alone.

But it's not that simple.

 

[Saint KFC]

I think it's Tom Hawkins who has changed his running style isn't it? If so maybe he should be a lock. Like literally, in rugby league. I haven't heard Drummond has done it though..

http://www.lions.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/5085/newsid/72514/default.aspx

BRISBANE Lions defender Josh Drummond hopes that a new running technique will help him remain injury free in 2009.

 

[lifelike_]

I think people are overrating Drummond are little to much he has avg over 69 once in his career and is yet to play more than 14 games in one season. His chances of becoming a keeper are not 50/50 their more 20/80 (20% chance he will). For him to be a keeper he must avg at his very best and also play 20+ games. Hes yet to achieve the later and has only achieved the avg once in his career. Drummond would be picked as a keeper but if he gets injured than he can also be upgraded. I wish people didnt talk me into getting him. Im going to try and not buy it.

You could also say he's averaged over 85 before. Just depends on what side of the argument you're on.

 

[Cassius_Clay]

You could also say he's averaged over 85 before. Just depends on what side of the argument you're on.

85? Over how many games was that? To be of any value that 85avg would have to be over 15 games.

300k for a guy who has shown about 10 good games in his whole career and is always injured is way too steep for mine.

The fact that they lost the majority of the games Drummond dominated in may show that he relies on the Lions getting smashed/playing extremely defensive and a high possession game.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

If people are picking him as a keeper than he needs to play 18 games or more. He syet to play over 14 games in any single season and 18 is a bare minimum. I also think people overrate his scoring potential too much. He has the same chance of scoring a 50/60 as he does of getting a 100+ score when fully fit. Even if he was to avg 85 over 18 games which i see both him not doing.

85 x 18 = 1530

Lets say he has an emergency for 3 of the 4 games due to lack of quality their. They score 40 each week. 3 x 40 = 120
120 + 1530 = 1650/22 = 75 avg.

His real avg at a max would be 75 IMO. Surely you can pick a durable player just as cheap who will avg 75 and not have that risk around needing to use a trade on them.

 

[__aria__]

chapman yes
drummond big big no