Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[Dirty Bird]

Recency bias is a wonderful thing.

We've been awful on the road, but a thrashing of a non-AFL team has people convinced we'll take it to the top team away.

You are right, we have been awful on the road. But that could lead to extra focus on turning up. And I feel we'll be fired up. Can see the upset.

Of the 4 hard away games. I actually think this might be our best shot. I'd probably say 30% chance vs Collingwood, 25% chance vs Essendon, 20% chance vs Brisbane, 5% chance vs Melbourne.

 

[davos44]

Port play Marvel well so glad its at the MCG.

We are going to have to barrack for Port a lot this remaining year, they have Geelong twice, Essendon, GC and Freo.

They can help us but also finish top 2 but by doing so we can't rely on them to soil their nappy every year they make a prelim.

 

[MsTopG]

I

What's Port's plan A and their plan B?

What they played vs Melbourne at Adelaide Oval - I feel would be the perfect gameplan for everywhere other than the MCG/Optus Stadium/Marrara.

But what they played vs the Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium - I feel that would be the perfect gameplan for those stadiums.

The ONE matchup I think would undo Port is Melbourne at the MCG.

Anything else. I feel they can pull off the win if they play at their best.

I think powaa will get found out in the finals. Grand final will likely be melb v pies imo. Pies should take it out barring injuries. Geelong the smokey especially if they finish 4th.

 

[relapse]

The Squiggle has us finishing 9th.

Top 8 according to their analysis is...

Collingwood
Port
Melb
Brisbane
St Kilda
Essendon
Bulldogs
Geelong

I think we'll need 13 wins to make it so I suspect we'll look back at GWS and the GC games with regret as they'll be the reason why we will miss the 8.

 

[gunbarrelstraight91]

The Squiggle has us finishing 9th.

Top 8 according to their analysis is...

Collingwood
Port
Melb
Brisbane
St Kilda
Essendon
Bulldogs
Geelong

I think we'll need 13 wins to make it so I suspect we'll look back at GWS and the GC games with regret as they'll be the reason why we will miss the 8.

Whilst I agree with your take on us, I will feel sick if the squiggle is right and StKilda finish 5th. I don’t rate them one bit.

 

[relapse]

Whilst I agree with your take on us, I will feel sick if the squiggle is right and StKilda finish 5th. I don’t rate them one bit.

I just had a look at their draw and it's not that easy IMO.

I think having them 5th is a tad on the optimistic side, there's definitely a chance they could crash and burn and miss the 8.

 

[Dirty Bird]

fwiw

Rank

PS

1​

2​

3​

4​

5​

6​

7​

8​

9​

10​

11​

12​

13​

1​

RICH

MELB

COLL

COLL

COLL

COLL

MELB

COLL

MELB

MELB

COLL

COLL

COLL

COLL

2​

BRIS

GEEL

SYD

MELB

MELB

MELB

COLL

MELB

COLL

COLL

BRIS

BRIS

MELB

MELB

3​

MELB

COLL

CARL

SYD

SYD

ADEL

GEEL

GEEL

STK

GEEL

MELB

WB

BRIS

PA

4​

GC

SYD

MELB

RICH

CARL

BRIS

STK

STK

BRIS

BRIS

WB

PA

GEEL

BRIS

5​

GEEL

BRIS

BRIS

CARL

ADEL

STK

BRIS

BRIS

GEEL

ADEL

STK

MELB

WB

GC

6​

SYD

RICH

RICH

STK

STK

SYD

ADEL

ESS

ADEL

STK

PA

ADEL

FRE

ESS

7​

CARL

WB

NM

ADEL

BRIS

CARL

ESS

ADEL

ESS

GC

ESS

STK

GC

WB

8​

COLL

FRE

WB

BRIS

PA

PA

WB

CARL

SYD

RICH

GEEL

FRE

PA

ADEL

9​

WB

CARL

GEEL

GC

GC

GEEL

CARL

SYD

CARL

WB

FRE

GC

ADEL

GEEL

10​

ADEL

PA

STK

NM

RICH

ESS

SYD

WB

WB

PA

ADEL

GEEL

ESS

FRE

11​

FRE

STK

PA

WB

WB

WB

RICH

GC

GC

ESS

GC

ESS

STK

RICH

12​

PA

ADEL

ADEL

GEEL

GEEL

RICH

PA

PA

PA

CARL

CARL

GWS

RICH

STK

13​

GWS

GWS

GC

ESS

ESS

GWS

GWS

GWS

GWS

FRE

RICH

SYD

GWS

HAW

14​

STK

ESS

ESS

FRE

GWS

NM

GC

NM

RICH

SYD

SYD

HAW

CARL

GWS

15​

WC

NM

WC

GWS

NM

FRE

FRE

FRE

FRE

GWS

GWS

RICH

SYD

SYD

16​

ESS

GC

FRE

PA

FRE

GC

HAW

HAW

NM

HAW

HAW

CARL

HAW

CARL

17​

NM

WC

GWS

HAW

HAW

HAW

NM

RICH

HAW

NM

NM

NM

NM

NM

18​

HAW

HAW

HAW

WC

WC

WC

WC

WC

WC

WC

WC

WC

WC

WC

GF

RICH d. GC

MELB d. COLL

MELB d. SYD

COLL d. MELB

COLL d. MELB

COLL d. BRIS

COLL d. MELB

COLL d. BRIS

COLL d. STK

MELB d. COLL

BRIS d. MELB

COLL d. BRIS

MELB d. BRIS

MELB d. COLL

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

the gc game was frustrating but at least we're showing we have some good form away even if not for 4 qtrs yet.

I still feel like we will have one game good enough to pinch an away win against a half-descent team.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

 

[gunbarrelstraight91]

I just had a look at their draw and it's not that easy IMO.

I think having them 5th is a tad on the optimistic side, there's definitely a chance they could crash and burn and miss the 8.

Let’s be honest how many people are going to tip every tip right for the last 11 rounds. At the end of the day that’s what these prediction ladders come down to.

Could be blown out of the water by the weekend

 

[crowholder]

Some good results from us with a 7-6 win loss ratio

 

[Dirty Bird]

60% chance we have a beautiful GF?

I'll take that

 

[AFC979810]

We are going to have to barrack for Port a lot this remaining year, they have Geelong twice, Essendon, GC and Freo.

They can help us but also finish top 2 but by doing so we can't rely on them to soil their nappy every year they make a prelim.

Plus a dream scenario would be getting a team like Essendon in the first week of the finals.

Beat them and Port loses in the QF and we get a semi final against Port at Adelaide Oval.

Ahhhhhh we can dream.

 

[ams4crows]

Have to win one or two (if we lose the showdown) of the away games against Collingwood Essendon Melbourne and Brisbane top 8 teams as well so will be worth 8 points.

Also win all remaining home games showdown is a bonus game and win there potentially nets us a home final and loss and we can still make it but likely finish 7th-8th plus the west coast away game.

 

[baldandbroke]

I don’t think we make finals this year. Just seems a bit of a stretch right now.

On 7 wins now, 10 matches to go.

Have to count NM and WC as wins…

9 wins, 8 matches to go.

We play the current top 4 at their home grounds, have to say all losses.

9 wins, 4 matches to go.

These remaining games are:

R17 vs ESS at Marvel
R18 vs GWS at AO
R21 vs GC at AO
R23 vs SYD at AO

We will need to win ALL of these games.

So really that game against the Bombers is the crux of it. If we win that one, it becomes possible.

Still have to perform at home against 3 similar level sides, not probable in my mind.

 

[footy4ever]

I

I think powaa will get found out in the finals. Grand final will likely be melb v pies imo. Pies should take it out barring injuries. Geelong the smokey especially if they finish 4th.

Not sure Geelong is a smokey.

I don't even see Geelong beating Port tomorrow night.

Reckon both Port and Crows would have Geelong covered at AO.

Geelong have a tough fixture to come - Port x2, Melbourne, Essendon, Lions, Freo, Pies, Saints, Bulldogs as well as 2 easier games - North, Swans. Of those, 6 games are at Potato Stadium so I guess that makes it a bit easier for them, but I'm not sure they'll even make the 8 let alone top 4.

 

[BRL121]

I don’t think we make finals this year. Just seems a bit of a stretch right now.

On 7 wins now, 10 matches to go.

Have to count NM and WC as wins…

9 wins, 8 matches to go.

We play the current top 4 at their home grounds, have to say all losses.

9 wins, 4 matches to go.

These remaining games are:

R17 vs ESS at Marvel
R18 vs GWS at AO
R21 vs GC at AO
R23 vs SYD at AO

We will need to win ALL of these games.

So really that game against the Bombers is the crux of it. If we win that one, it becomes possible.

Still have to perform at home against 3 similar level sides, not probable in my mind.

Agreed. I think we'll end up on 12.

 

[footy4ever]

I don’t think we make finals this year. Just seems a bit of a stretch right now.

On 7 wins now, 10 matches to go.

Have to count NM and WC as wins…

9 wins, 8 matches to go.

We play the current top 4 at their home grounds, have to say all losses.

9 wins, 4 matches to go.

These remaining games are:

R17 vs ESS at Marvel
R18 vs GWS at AO
R21 vs GC at AO
R23 vs SYD at AO

We will need to win ALL of these games.

So really that game against the Bombers is the crux of it. If we win that one, it becomes possible.

Still have to perform at home against 3 similar level sides, not probable in my mind.

My reckoning as well except that I think we have Port's measure and will do them again at AO especially it being our home game. Essendon? I can't even remember us playing well against a half decent Essendon side in Melbourne.

 

[MsTopG]

Not sure Geelong is a smokey.

I don't even see Geelong beating Port tomorrow night.

Reckon both Port and Crows would have Geelong covered at AO.

Geelong have a tough fixture to come - Port x2, Melbourne, Essendon, Lions, Freo, Pies, Saints, Bulldogs as well as 2 easier games - North, Swans. Of those, 6 games are at Potato Stadium so I guess that makes it a bit easier for them, but I'm not sure they'll even make the 8 let alone top 4.

The cats have had 8-10 of their best players out most of the year. Any top 4 side wouldn't want to come up against them with their full side on the MCG. Flags aren't won in June, powaa keep forgetting that. You gotta peak in September. Cats have 5 key players back for the powaa match. I think Geelong are coming to take the 4 points whatever it takes.

 

[footy4ever]

The cats have had 8-10 of their best players out most of the year. Any top 4 side wouldn't want to come up against them with their full side on the MCG. Flags aren't won in June, powaa keep forgetting that. You gotta peak in September.

True, but you have to actually make the 8 first.

They still have ageing stars who are more susceptible to injury so it could be a bit of a struggle getting all of their best players on the field at the same time.

5 have become available for the Port game but that's a lot of changes and probably won't all get a game, though I recall the Crows making 5 changes before a showdown an winning it so...

 

[MsTopG]

True, but you have to actually make the 8 first.

They still have ageing stars who are more susceptible to injury so it could be a bit of a struggle getting all of their best players on the field at the same time.

5 have become available for the Port game but that's a lot of changes and probably won't all get a game, though I recall the Crows making 5 changes before a showdown an winning it so...

I think the winner of the flag will be pies or melb. Melb are the best defensive side in the league which generally wins the flag. But I wouldn't be surprised if the cats time their run perfectly like the Bulldogs did in their premiership year. The Bulldogs got around 7 or 8 key players back just prior to the finals so they were fresh.

 

[cleanhands]

I think the winner of the flag will be pies or melb. Melb are the best defensive side in the league which generally wins the flag. But I wouldn't be surprised if the cats time their run perfectly like the Bulldogs did in their premiership year. The Bulldogs got around 7 or 8 key players back just prior to the finals so they were fresh.

It’s a myth

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data ....on SEN MELB today, said FREO, ESS, RICH, will not make the Finals ......ADEL will

 

[cleanhands]

Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data ....on SEN MELB today, said FREO, ESS, RICH, will not make the Finals ......ADEL will

the religious followers of champion data will be happy

 

[WaynesWorld19]

the religious followers of champion data will be happy

Beware of false prophets

That said CD are very good at analysing each club's game plans, and zone strength & weaknesses