Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[Kane McGoodwin]

Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data ....on SEN MELB today, said FREO, ESS, RICH, will not make the Finals ......ADEL will

I haven't studied Essendon's draw... but their game against us could be the difference for either side making finals.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I haven't studied Essendon's draw... but their game against us could be the difference for either side making finals.

I love this weekly chat .....if you're a footy head, listen to the whole thing ......the ESS profile starts from the 18 min mark

Some just don't rate Champion Data .....have a listen & make up your own mind ....this is the data Coaches work off

Also outlines how you beat COLL

 

[kirky]

I don’t think we make finals this year. Just seems a bit of a stretch right now.

On 7 wins now, 10 matches to go.

Have to count NM and WC as wins…

9 wins, 8 matches to go.

We play the current top 4 at their home grounds, have to say all losses.

9 wins, 4 matches to go.

These remaining games are:

R17 vs ESS at Marvel
R18 vs GWS at AO
R21 vs GC at AO
R23 vs SYD at AO

We will need to win ALL of these games.

So really that game against the Bombers is the crux of it. If we win that one, it becomes possible.

Still have to perform at home against 3 similar level sides, not probable in my mind.

Wait a second - we have beaten Port, Brisbane and St Kilda and should have beaten Collingwood - all top 5 sides and yet you don’t think we can beat all of GWS, GCS and Sydney at home?

Irrespective of our form line away from Adelaide, we are nearly unbeatable at Adelaide this year.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I don’t think we make finals this year. Just seems a bit of a stretch right now.

On 7 wins now, 10 matches to go.

Have to count NM and WC as wins…

9 wins, 8 matches to go.

We play the current top 4 at their home grounds, have to say all losses.

9 wins, 4 matches to go.

These remaining games are:

R17 vs ESS at Marvel
R18 vs GWS at AO
R21 vs GC at AO
R23 vs SYD at AO

We will need to win ALL of these games.

So really that game against the Bombers is the crux of it. If we win that one, it becomes possible.

Still have to perform at home against 3 similar level sides, not probable in my mind.

I think you’re making it sound harder than it is.

I expect to win all 4 of those homes and wc away. So I expect at least 12 wins.

Also the top at their home ground is technically the truth but disingenuous. It will be our home showdown and we have already beaten them once this year. It’s a 50/50 game for me.

That leaves essendon which is probably 60/40 in their favour.

Win one of those 2 and were likely in

 

[MsTopG]

It’s a myth

That powaa choke in prelims? Nah that's fact lol.

 

[FR0GGY]

Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data ....on SEN MELB today, said FREO, ESS, RICH, will not make the Finals ......ADEL will

A month ago he said if you could pick an ideal stats profile of a club it would be Adelaide.

 

[skam85]

12-11 without us losing much of our current percentage may be enough to nab 8th.

 

[davos44]

Plus a dream scenario would be getting a team like Essendon in the first week of the finals.

Beat them and Port loses in the QF and we get a semi final against Port at Adelaide Oval.

Ahhhhhh we can dream.

Getting an away St Kilda or Essendon final would be fun for the road trip. MCG finals are awesome, GMHBA finals or Brisbane finals would be crushingly lame.

 

[davos44]

I don’t think we make finals this year. Just seems a bit of a stretch right now.

On 7 wins now, 10 matches to go.

Have to count NM and WC as wins…

9 wins, 8 matches to go.

We play the current top 4 at their home grounds, have to say all losses.

9 wins, 4 matches to go.

These remaining games are:

R17 vs ESS at Marvel
R18 vs GWS at AO
R21 vs GC at AO
R23 vs SYD at AO

We will need to win ALL of these games.

So really that game against the Bombers is the crux of it. If we win that one, it becomes possible.

Still have to perform at home against 3 similar level sides, not probable in my mind.

You also need to look at our rivals draws as well. I honestly think 13 wins will be 5-6th and 12-11 or 11-12 would get you 7th or 8th with the percentage splitting sides up.

Richmond, GWS, Sydney, Hawthorn and Carlton will play good footy in the last 9 or so games. They probably arent a chance to play finals but will rock the boat for sure, only West Coast and maybe North are being pencilled in as wins for most sides.

 

[baldandbroke]

Wait a second - we have beaten Port, Brisbane and St Kilda and should have beaten Collingwood - all top 5 sides and yet you don’t think we can beat all of GWS, GCS and Sydney at home?

Irrespective of our form line away from Adelaide, we are nearly unbeatable at Adelaide this year.

Gotta win all of those Home games and the Essendon game, not most of 'em, ALL of them to be assured of finals.

I think you’re making it sound harder than it is.

I expect to win all 4 of those homes and wc away. So I expect at least 12 wins.

Also the top at their home ground is technically the truth but disingenuous. It will be our home showdown and we have already beaten them once this year. It’s a 50/50 game for me.

That leaves essendon which is probably 60/40 in their favour.

Win one of those 2 and were likely in

I just think that wining ALL of the maybe games and beating PAER at AO is a big ask.

You also need to look at our rivals draws as well. I honestly think 13 wins will be 5-6th and 12-11 or 11-12 would get you 7th or 8th with the percentage splitting sides up.

Richmond, GWS, Sydney, Hawthorn and Carlton will play good footy in the last 9 or so games. They probably arent a chance to play finals but will rock the boat for sure, only West Coast and maybe North are being pencilled in as wins for most sides.

I picked 13 because I think that is definitely in the finals. I'm not into the minutia, because even the big picture is hard enough to try and nail down. If you are looking at us getting in on percentage then you are plucking a number out of basically thin air.

 

[Dangarman]

You also need to look at our rivals draws as well. I honestly think 13 wins will be 5-6th and 12-11 or 11-12 would get you 7th or 8th with the percentage splitting sides up.

Richmond, GWS, Sydney, Hawthorn and Carlton will play good footy in the last 9 or so games. They probably arent a chance to play finals but will rock the boat for sure, only West Coast and maybe North are being pencilled in as wins for most sides.

When was the last time a less than 50% win ratio got a team into the top 8?

(I'll give you a hint - don't bother checking the years with an 18 team competition.)

 

[davos44]

When was the last time a less than 50% win ratio got a team into the top 8?

(I'll give you a hint - don't bother checking the years with an 18 team competition.)

Brisbane in '95 comes to mind (yes 16 teams, I know)

If you look at the state of the competition this year, the top 2 and bottom 2 are outliers and the 14 in the middle are a closer bunch.

2018 was a bit of an anomaly year as well, 4 teams got to 12-10 with positive percentages and they all missed finals. We finished 12th with 12 wins and 104%.

It could go that way as well, where 13 wins and 105% causes you to miss out.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

When was the last time a less than 50% win ratio got a team into the top 8?

(I'll give you a hint - don't bother checking the years with an 18 team competition.)

Yeah, very unlikely occur with an 18 team competition.

The 2 grand finalists have not both missed the finals the following year in the AFL era. Will this year be a 1st?

 

[footy4ever]

Yeah, very unlikely occur with an 18 team competition.

The 2 grand finalists have not both missed the finals the following year in the AFL era. Will this year be a 1st?

I can't even remember which two teams played in the GF... Geelong and ?

...I don't care.

 

[MarcusP2]

I can't even remember which two teams played in the GF... Geelong and ?

...I don't care.

Swans.

I won't be shedding any tears for either supporter base.

 

[Dangarman]

Yeah, very unlikely occur with an 18 team competition.

The 2 grand finalists have not both missed the finals the following year in the AFL era. Will this year be a 1st?

Strangely, despite Sydney needing to go 8-3 or better to get 13 wins and Geelong needing 7-3, I think Sydney are the better chance, even if they lose to Brisbane tonight. Melbourne is their only remaining top 4 opponent after that.

Geelong need to beat at least one of Mel, Bris, Port or Coll, plus all their other 6 games (Syd, North, Ess, Freo, StK, WB).

The fact they play each other again probably ensures no more than one of them make it.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Yeah, very unlikely occur with an 18 team competition.

The 2 grand finalists have not both missed the finals the following year in the AFL era. Will this year be a 1st?

2005 was the closest. Brisbane missed and Port scraped into 8th, eventually resulting in the Dream Final.

 

[footy4ever]

2005 was the closest. Brisbane missed and Port scraped into 8th, eventually resulting in the Dream Final.

Who else was there for that dream final?

To this day it's the most satisfying smashing I've had the pleasure to witness.

It couldn't have happened to two more appropriate recipients - The smashee and the smasher.

 

[MsTopG]

I think crows might be the only team that can beat powaa at Adelaide oval. My dream would be meeting them in a prelim here. I would give us a good chance.

 

[kirky]

Whilst everyone Geelong makes finals they just haven’t shown consistent form this year.

Their only guaranteed win is North in the their remaining 10 games. Yes, they have other games at GMBHA but each of those sides - Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs and Port - are also playing for spots in the eight or top 4. The advantage for us is if Geelong win it gives our competitors a loss.

We will get an idea this Thursday night with Melbourne playing Geelong at Geelong. If Geelong lose, rule a line thru them.

 

[pjcrows]

Who else was there for that dream final?

To this day it's the most satisfying smashing I've had the pleasure to witness.

It couldn't have happened to two more appropriate recipients - The smashee and the smasher.

We should've won the premiership that year so whilst I remember the Showdown Final fun, it's still a muted memory.

 

[Mattrox]

There are two aspects to away form other than simply playing shit on the day.

Away umpiring, paying momentum sapping made up free kicks at critical junctures of the game.

And playing at shithole stadiums like Tas, Skilled, TIO, GWS and never getting a look at "real" finals away grounds like Docklands and MCG that 10 other away teams play nearly every week. Too many one offs. We've done our time at Mars stadium. Time for Collingwood to do some heavy lifting.

With the 1st point, we have to be better and not drop our heads because it's going to happen twice as bad in a final in Victoria. Also, they have to play consistent uncontested footy where there is no opportunity to make up free kicks against to turn the ball over.

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[WetCrow1991]

Yeah, we'll win the 5 home games, which includes the 2nd Showdown. We'll beat the Eagles at Optus. That'll give us 13 wins at least. Beyond that it is dependent how we go at the MCG, Marvel and the Gabba against some good sides. Least likely for me is Brisbane at the Gabba. I think our improved outside game will serve us well on he MCG and wouldn't be surprised if we pinch one against either Collingwood or Melbourne. Essendon will probably beat us, our record against them in Melbourne is incredibly one sided.

That's based on the Crows form this season. Based on previous seasons however we won't make it.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Whilst everyone Geelong makes finals they just haven’t shown consistent form this year.

Their only guaranteed win is North in the their remaining 10 games. Yes, they have other games at GMBHA but each of those sides - Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs and Port - are also playing for spots in the eight or top 4. The advantage for us is if Geelong win it gives our competitors a loss.

We will get an idea this Thursday night with Melbourne playing Geelong at Geelong. If Geelong lose, rule a line thru them.

With Freo losing to GWS, I think we can rule them out from making finals.

Can't see the current bottom 8 making finals.

Leaves Cats & smokey Gold Coast to displace a current top 8 side. GC will replace the Bulldogs in the ladder if they beat the Blues tomorrow.

 

[GrommoT]

With Freo losing to GWS, I think we can rule them out from making finals.

Can't see the current bottom 8 making finals.

Leaves Cats & smokey Gold Coast to displace a current top 8 side. GC will replace the Bulldogs in the ladder if they beat the Blues tomorrow.

Bulldogs have North tomorrow.