Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"
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Milo Cyrus
Premiership Player
- Feb 22, 2021
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To get the gold we've got to do it on the MCG, so it will be nice to get some practice in against the Pies and Dees.
There's a huge gulf between our best and worst.
Need to win an away game against one of Collingwood, Essendon, Brisbane and Melbourne to be a relevant team come finals.
Otherwise finishing eighth will feel hollow and not sure how much good that does for 2024 momentum.
Need to win an away game against one of Collingwood, Essendon, Brisbane and Melbourne to be a relevant team come finals.
Otherwise finishing eighth will feel hollow and not sure how much good that does for 2024 momentum.
- Mar 3, 2022
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Does good for having a game of finals experience under their belt.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
Nothing hollow about finishing 8th when your last three years have gone 18-43.
It's hollow if a team was regularly making finals, or was top four the year prior.
My point is if we were to finish 8th you want to have some past form of winning away to give some hope of causing an upset.
There is a scenario where St Kilda finish 5th and we finish 8th, so we take them on at the MCG. Could we beat the Saints there? Even with our crap away form, the supporter in me says 'maybe'.
Yeah, how many of our list have played in a final? Walker, Laird, Sloane, Smith and Dawson? Crouch if we picked him I suppose. I think getting a bit of finals exposure for the rest of the list would be good even if it was a situation where we finished 8th and lost an away elimination final.
The year after would be different - this year I think making the eight alone would be a meaningful milestone. It's not like we're going to be finishing last and getting the #1 pick anyway, so it's a choice between scraping into the eight or finishing 9th-10th most likely.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
I got that, I'm saying that in this case, that doesn't matter. It's really about saying the future is bright in the next few years.
I think we’ll be dangerous at the MCG with the way we move the ball, slicing through zones with our precision passing. There’s a lot of space on the wings throughout the middle of the ground at the G.
If we’re on, I think we’ll even cause the pies problems in two weeks time.
More likely at Marvel
Southerntakeover
Too Sweet
Recency bias is a wonderful thing.
We've been awful on the road, but a thrashing of a non-AFL team has people convinced we'll take it to the top team away.
Four words:
Win.
Away.
From.
Home.
Batting 6-2 at AO, 1-4 away.
I'm starting to think Brissy might have a similar problem, now 6-0 at the Gabba, 2-4 away.
Win the rest of our home games (North, Giants, Port, Suns and Sydney) and beat WC again in Perth we get to 13 wins.
The other 4 games are very tough assignments - Collingwood, Melbourne and Essendon in Melbourne, and Brisbane at the Gabba.
No more margin for slip ups.
Win.
Away.
From.
Home.
Batting 6-2 at AO, 1-4 away.
I'm starting to think Brissy might have a similar problem, now 6-0 at the Gabba, 2-4 away.
Win the rest of our home games (North, Giants, Port, Suns and Sydney) and beat WC again in Perth we get to 13 wins.
The other 4 games are very tough assignments - Collingwood, Melbourne and Essendon in Melbourne, and Brisbane at the Gabba.
No more margin for slip ups.
Looking through the ladder predictor we could finish 6th, 8th or 10th.
Win all the games we should (including GWS & Syd) and then we need to snare a win away. Essendon at Marvel looks most likely. Do that we finish 8th.
Snare another win, against Coll, Melb, Bris or Port and we could finish 6th.
Win none of those away games and lose to Port (or drop a game we should win) and we finish 10th.
Win all the games we should (including GWS & Syd) and then we need to snare a win away. Essendon at Marvel looks most likely. Do that we finish 8th.
Snare another win, against Coll, Melb, Bris or Port and we could finish 6th.
Win none of those away games and lose to Port (or drop a game we should win) and we finish 10th.
- Dec 29, 2000
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Looking at the draws for the respective sides and if we win our home games against North, GWS (
), Gold Coast, Sydney plus Eagles last round we likely get to 8th.
The loss by Freo on the weekend will cost them dearly. Now Richmond will become a spoiler.
Geelong have a tough draw with games against those in the 8 - Port (x 2), Melbourne, Brisbane (away), Collingwood, St Kilda and Essendon. The advantage they do have is 6 of their remaining 11 games are at GMHBA.
From this point of the season the issue becomes who do you play that is direct competition to you. We basically only have Gold Coast and Essendon. We have games against top 4 but also the bottom two plus a few just above that (Sydney and GWS).
Reckon we will end up jagging a win we least expected (one against the top 4 or Essendon).
), Gold Coast, Sydney plus Eagles last round we likely get to 8th.The loss by Freo on the weekend will cost them dearly. Now Richmond will become a spoiler.
Geelong have a tough draw with games against those in the 8 - Port (x 2), Melbourne, Brisbane (away), Collingwood, St Kilda and Essendon. The advantage they do have is 6 of their remaining 11 games are at GMHBA.
From this point of the season the issue becomes who do you play that is direct competition to you. We basically only have Gold Coast and Essendon. We have games against top 4 but also the bottom two plus a few just above that (Sydney and GWS).
Reckon we will end up jagging a win we least expected (one against the top 4 or Essendon).
Coll - LLooking at the draws for the respective sides and if we win our home games against North, GWS (
The loss by Freo on the weekend will cost them dearly. Now Richmond will become a spoiler.
Geelong have a tough draw with games against those in the 8 - Port (x 2), Melbourne, Brisbane (away), Collingwood, St Kilda and Essendon. The advantage they do have is 6 of their remaining 11 games are at GMHBA.
From this point of the season the issue becomes who do you play that is direct competition to you. We basically only have Gold Coast and Essendon. We have games against top 4 but also the bottom two plus a few just above that (Sydney and GWS).
Reckon we will end up jagging a win we least expected (one against the top 4 or Essendon).
North - W
Ess- L
GWS - W
Mel - L
Port - W (our home game and we will want to di in front of or members)
Gold Cost - W
Bris - L
Syd - W
Wc - W
Our 8 point games are the key to making finals (teams also in finals contention)
Essendon Away
GWS at home
Gold Coast at home
Sydney at home
West Coast away and North at home should be wins.
Win those 6 and we make finals with a 13-10 record otherwise we have to win one of:
Port at home, Collingwood, Brisbane and Melbourne away, which is really tough.
Fingers crossed Port are on a big downward slide like their wonderful 11-4 to 12-10 ride in 2018. We dont play Collingwood or Melbourne too badly so we might be a sneaky chance.
Essendon Away
GWS at home
Gold Coast at home
Sydney at home
West Coast away and North at home should be wins.
Win those 6 and we make finals with a 13-10 record otherwise we have to win one of:
Port at home, Collingwood, Brisbane and Melbourne away, which is really tough.
Fingers crossed Port are on a big downward slide like their wonderful 11-4 to 12-10 ride in 2018. We dont play Collingwood or Melbourne too badly so we might be a sneaky chance.
MsTopG
Norm Smith Medallist
- Mar 21, 2023
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We should win all of our home games. The issue is the away games. The Perth game is a win. If we don't win the showdown though we must pinch an away game. I think the essendon game is the most likely and should knock essendon out because of our percentage. I can't see us beating melb, coll, lions away. Melb probably the easiest of the three. If we somehow get up against the pies though that would really give us some confidence. Unfortunately the gws game away and pies game at home might come back to haunt us. In saying that we were lucky against the Hawks. If we are good enough we should make it.
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Essendons draw is fairly similar to ours as well in terms of difficulty. Their next 5 weeks is fascinating because we are in really similar positions list/performance wise.
Freo Optus
Port MCG.... the MCG? We haven't played them there since 1995.
Crows Marvel
Geelong at GMHBA
Bulldogs Marvel
4 of the 5 are against other sides vying for top 8 spots, Port going for top 4 and a worth scalp to try and take.
Half the AFL sides are finishing 12-11 11-12 this year
Port play Marvel well so glad its at the MCG.Essendons draw is fairly similar to ours as well in terms of difficulty. Their next 5 weeks is fascinating because we are in really similar positions list/performance wise.
Freo Optus
Port MCG.... the MCG? We haven't played them there since 1995.
Crows Marvel
Geelong at GMHBA
Bulldogs Marvel
4 of the 5 are against other sides vying for top 8 spots, Port going for top 4 and a worth scalp to try and take.
Half the AFL sides are finishing 12-11 11-12 this year
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Pre-season - Adelaide 10th at 13-10
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 6 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 7 - Adelaide 7th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 8 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to St Kilda in Semi
After Rd 9 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Richmond in Elimination, Lose to Brisbane in Semi
After Rd 10 - Adelaide 10th at 12-11
After Rd 11 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Defeat Western Bulldogs in Smi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 12 - Adelaide 9th at 13-10
After Rd 13 - Adelaide 8th at 13-10 Lose to Gold Coast in Elimination
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 6 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 7 - Adelaide 7th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 8 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to St Kilda in Semi
After Rd 9 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Richmond in Elimination, Lose to Brisbane in Semi
After Rd 10 - Adelaide 10th at 12-11
After Rd 11 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Defeat Western Bulldogs in Smi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 12 - Adelaide 9th at 13-10
After Rd 13 - Adelaide 8th at 13-10 Lose to Gold Coast in Elimination
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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I was wrong earlier in the year when I thought Port would beat us, however they were not traveling the way they are now.
Assuming injuries and nothing unexpected happens between now and then, they will beat us in the next Showdown. However, thats not to say we cant beat them in the finals should we play them. I give us a better chance of rolling them in a final this year than winning the next showdown.
Im comfortable with your assessment of the rest of our H&A season.
It means our game vs Essendon is a kind of elimination final for us.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Squiggle which has been very reliable over the years has us at 9th as well.
Losing to the Suns a couple of weeks back was the one that really hurt us in this run to September.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
What's Port's plan A and their plan B?
What they played vs Melbourne at Adelaide Oval - I feel would be the perfect gameplan for everywhere other than the MCG/Optus Stadium/Marrara.
But what they played vs the Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium - I feel that would be the perfect gameplan for those stadiums.
The ONE matchup I think would undo Port is Melbourne at the MCG.
Anything else. I feel they can pull off the win if they play at their best.
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