Society/Culture Woke. Can you tell real from parody? - Part 2 -

[faible]

The pace of technology should never be underestimated. The iPod was released in 2001; I'm sure in 2006 there were statistics showing its sales weren't all that hot, that CDs were still showing robust sales. Then the iPhone came out in 2007 and he we are 15 years later and CDs are dead. Think of all the things the internet has killed off in 25 years, streaming etc. Obviously cars are a much larger investment, but all it will take is a single development, an influx of second-hand cars from government fleets and the changeover could gather momentum rapidly. I wouldn't be surprised if ICE are the preserve of enthusiasts in 20 years.

BLIAQ - Blockbuster Stock Price - Barchart.com

Blockbuster Inc stocks price quote with latest real-time prices, charts, financials, latest news, technical analysis and opinions.

www.barchart.com

Check the share price. Peaks in ~ mid 2002 at around $29. By mid 2004 it's worth half that. By 2010 it's effectively dead.

Technology moves fast, we're seeing pretty rapid increases in the availability of EV models and associated tech.

 

[Frank Bunn]

How long is a generation? 20 years? More?

Right now non EVs (including hybrids) still make up 90%+ of new vehicle sales and that has started to plateau. So we're not yet close to car makers stopping selling ICE cars here. Europe which is more advanced than us or the US (and a small densely populated area) just saw EV sales drop from 20% to 15%. So the manufacturers are not close to the point of stopping production of ICE cars.

5 years ago I knew no one with an EV. Currently I know one person that has one privately and one that has one leased through a business. In that same 5 year period I reckon I know 10 or 20 people that have bought ICE cars.

I reckon we're still a long way off as the cost of EVs is high and the charging infrastructure and range isn't there. When you look at what goes into an EV I don't see how you can make one that competes on price without a huge fall in metals prices. You can get a regular Hyundai Kona from $35k, a hybrid from $40k and an electric from $60k. How many people are going to spend the $60,000 on the electric version? It's a very niche market.

I'm one of those people with an older car that is on the fence about when to potentially get an EV. My car still works fine but eventually will need replacing. I know that if I am spending $60k I want something better than a Hyundai Kona. No offence intended to Kona owners, it's just an example of a reasonably priced car with EV options.

There's different markets.

The tradie ute remains popular. It can stow tools on a building site, and pull a boat or caravan at weekends. Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger, Isuzu D-Max.

Then there's people who just want a reliable, affordable car for getting around in. Such as the Toyota RAV4.

Tesla seems to have its own little market. High-ish income professionals who want a status symbol. In my area it seems to be mostly real estate agents who drive them.

Getting back to Jaguar. Its customer base has traditionally been car enthusiasts who like powerful internal combustion engines. But Jag has completely abandoned that brand. As Porsche found, car enthusiasts don't want EVs. There will only be a few very high income professionals who can afford to buy an electric Jag, such as the LGBT+ activist marketing execs that came up with the latest ad.

 

[Chief]

LGBT+ activist marketing execs

AH! Got it. You're one of those.

 

[faible]

AH! Got it. You're one of those.

Who's gonna tell him that even Teslas cost less than a lot of those 'tradie utes' do?

I also wouldn't buy a Tesla if I was buying an EV.

 

[Scotland]

The pace of technology should never be underestimated. The iPod was released in 2001; I'm sure in 2006 there were statistics showing its sales weren't all that hot, that CDs were still showing robust sales. Then the iPhone came out in 2007 and he we are 15 years later and CDs are dead. Think of all the things the internet has killed off in 25 years, streaming etc. Obviously cars are a much larger investment, but all it will take is a single development, an influx of second-hand cars from government fleets and the changeover could gather momentum rapidly. I wouldn't be surprised if ICE are the preserve of enthusiasts in 20 years.

It's the pace of technology vs the resistance of humans to change their behaviour. I mean how many people know that climate change is real, know the damage caused by plastics in the environment, land clearing etc. yet still drive every day, take regular flights, have the air con running when it's 27 degrees, upgrade their tech every few months, buy cheap imported goods...

CDs have basically come and gone within my lifetime, having taken over from cassettes which took over from vinyl. Now vinyl outsells CDs. Who saw that coming? Physical media has always been about quality vs convenience. Records are great but they aren't much use outside your living room. Cassettes were smaller and more robust so you could have tape player in the car of a Walkman, and CDs were the next evolution of that. The advancement of processing power, wireless data transfer and storage capacity has wiped out a lot of physical media. What percentage of people now still own a camera? I would guess 5-10% and maybe 1% or less have a film camera. Digital cameras like CDs basically came and went in my lifetime because smartphones can now do everything. Why would anyone drive to a video store, pay $7 to hire a disc or tape, then return it the next day (rewound if it's a VHS!) when they can just access the same content from their TV via streaming? Very easy to convince people to do things that make their lives easier. My dad is in his 70s and still goes to the shop to buy the paper (The West, FML) and thinks Uber is witchcraft but has taken to his smart TV and digital radio like they are the best thing since sliced bread.

I think first prize in EV dominance is charging. Plug in charging at home is great, but that's still an extra thing you have to do and cost you have to incur. As soon as I own an EV I will get into the habit of get home, park. plug in. But for the time being when the car is empty I go to the fuel station and a couple of minutes later I have 800km range up my sleeve. Charging times need to be significantly reduced or ranges need to be reliably increased. If you have an 80 kWh battery then charging it from a 10 amp 240V circuit will take 33 hours. 20 amp 17 hours, 30 amp 11 hours. Fast charging at home just isn't an option and I don't think it can be. You can theoretically charge an 80 kWh battery in about 15 minutes with a DC fast charger but how many of those are available and is that really practical to replace petrol stations with 10 pumps and each pump can fill a car in a minute? A major roadhouse in the country probably has 100 or 200 amps total power supply from the grid or local generators. I think there is a huge amount of work to be done in the overall electrification piece of which EVs are just one aspect.

Another thing to consider is what the second hand market looks like. There are thousands of second hand cars available for people on all budgets, but the EV market is still in its infancy. 20,000 second hand cars in WA, 350 of them are electric and four under $20k. Part of that is how batteries deteriorate and what replacing them looks like.

Anyway it's an interesting field but not sure how it is woke. Jaguar might be going woke but they should focus on not building expensive cars that always broke down.

 

[Scotland]

There's different markets.

The tradie ute remains popular. It can stow tools on a building site, and pull a boat or caravan at weekends. Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger, Isuzu D-Max.

Then there's people who just want a reliable, affordable car for getting around in. Such as the Toyota RAV4.

Tesla seems to have its own little market. High-ish income professionals who want a status symbol. In my area it seems to be mostly real estate agents who drive them.

Getting back to Jaguar. Its customer base has traditionally been car enthusiasts who like powerful internal combustion engines. But Jag has completely abandoned that brand. As Porsche found, car enthusiasts don't want EVs. There will only be a few very high income professionals who can afford to buy an electric Jag, such as the LGBT+ activist marketing execs that came up with the latest ad.

EV utes and SUVs are coming but they still come back to the same questions of how much does it cost, how far can it go and how the hell do I charge it in the middle of nowhere?

 

[Carringbush2010]

There's different markets.

The tradie ute remains popular. It can stow tools on a building site, and pull a boat or caravan at weekends. Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger, Isuzu D-Max.

Then there's people who just want a reliable, affordable car for getting around in. Such as the Toyota RAV4.

Tesla seems to have its own little market. High-ish income professionals who want a status symbol. In my area it seems to be mostly real estate agents who drive them.

Getting back to Jaguar. Its customer base has traditionally been car enthusiasts who like powerful internal combustion engines. But Jag has completely abandoned that brand. As Porsche found, car enthusiasts don't want EVs. There will only be a few very high income professionals who can afford to buy an electric Jag, such as the LGBT+ activist marketing execs that came up with the latest ad.

I was in agreement with your sentiment, until this point.

'such as the LGBT+ activist marketing execs'

 

[sr36]

There's different markets.

The tradie ute remains popular. It can stow tools on a building site, and pull a boat or caravan at weekends. Toyota Hilux, Ford Ranger, Isuzu D-Max.

Then there's people who just want a reliable, affordable car for getting around in. Such as the Toyota RAV4.

Tesla seems to have its own little market. High-ish income professionals who want a status symbol. In my area it seems to be mostly real estate agents who drive them.

Getting back to Jaguar. Its customer base has traditionally been car enthusiasts who like powerful internal combustion engines. But Jag has completely abandoned that brand. As Porsche found, car enthusiasts don't want EVs. There will only be a few very high income professionals who can afford to buy an electric Jag, such as the LGBT+ activist marketing execs that came up with the latest ad.

I live in a country where tradie utes are everywhere but tradies are very few and far between, but hey you keep pitching your stuff about tradie utes being purely about practical matters and Teslas being purely a fashion statement.

 

[jathanas]

And the tech improves constantly, so it'll end up much the same as visiting a service station. It takes a good week (or more) worth of the average urban drivers' usage to run down an EV battery. It isn't like a smart phone where you need to charge it every night.

Drivers in regional areas who cover a lot more km will have different needs, as will those living in outer suburbs, but those people are also more likely to have the space and ability to have an EV charger installed and accessible at home.

The arguments you're trying to run with are well and truly outdated. There's already EV chargers at work places, gyms, on streets, hell I've seen them at wineries in regional areas.

No one will take your petrol car away, but chances are you'll reach a point where the logical thing for most people is to buy an EV when they're replacing a car.

EVs are coming en masse, urban streets will be quieter with less exhaust fumes, and you'll realise it's all fine.

Loved my Ioniq 5 but traded it in for a hybrid.

450km of range is really around 320 because they recommend keeping the battery at a charge between 10-80% for longevity reasons.

Subtract 10-15% in winter.

EVs are great for inner-city residents who own private charge points and drive less than 200-300km weekly.

Not so great for the rest.

I'd happily buy an EV if my circumstances change. Charging off the solar panels during summer was super-cool.

 

[Kram]

I live in a country where tradie utes are everywhere but tradies are very few and far between, but hey you keep pitching your stuff about tradie utes being purely about practical matters and Teslas being purely a fashion statement.

I reckon 90%+ of 4wds, 4wd utes and SUVs on the road are driven by muppets that don't need them.

 

[faible]

Loved my Ionig 5 but traded it in for a hybrid.

450km of range is really around 320 because they recommend keeping the battery at a charge between 10-80% for longevity reasons.

Subtract 10-15% in winter.

EVs are great for inner-city residents who own private charge points and drive less than 200-300km weekly.

Not so great for the rest.

I'd happily buy an EV if my circumstances change. Charging off the solar panels during summer was super-cool.

A quick google has the ‘average’ Australian driving ~ 33km per day. That’s the kind of thing an EV does well, sitting in traffic.

Not necessarily long highway driving day-in, day-out.

 

[jathanas]

A quick google has the ‘average’ Australian driving ~ 33km per day. That’s the kind of thing an EV does well, sitting in traffic.

Not necessarily long highway driving day-in, day-out.

Average tells us little, median might be a more meaningful number but I agree with the sentiment.

EVs are also a wonderful 2nd family car. The "light duty" one.

I'm not a hater. They're perfect for the right circumstances.

 

[errant bounce]

Average tells us little, median might be a more meaningful number but I agree with the sentiment.

EVs are also a wonderful 2nd family car. The "light duty" one.

I'm not a hater. They're perfect for the right circumstances.

What world are you living in? second family car? that's about 30 grand? that sits there for what, cute little trips to Toyworld?

 

[jathanas]

What world are you living in? second family car? that's about 30 grand? that sits there for what, cute little trips to Toyworld?

You must be fun at parties.

I sit comfortably in my world. Sounds like a nicer place than yours.

 

[Frank Bunn]

I was in agreement with your sentiment, until this point.

'such as the LGBT+ activist marketing execs'

The guy behind the Jaguar re-brand spoke at the Attitude Awards, which is an event acknowledging and celebrating LGBTQ stars and allies. I think my description was accurate and not meant as a slur.

The re-brand is not just about Jaguar going all electric. It's part of creating a culture where employees can bring their authentic selves to work. And being on a transformative journey, driven by a belief in diversity, inclusion, creativity, policy, and most importantly action.

Which is all fine but Jaguar exists to sell cars and make a profit. They are quite open that they have deliberately ditched their existing customer base. So who are they targeting as their new customers? To me, it would have made more sense to keep and grow the existing Jaguar brand. And if they were confident of high-end EVs appealing to cashed up younger people who value DEI etc then they should have created a new brand.

 

[bzparkes]

Jaguar ad was pretty funny tbh.

"Copy nothing"?

 

[faible]

DEI

ooh another one on the bingo card!

 

[sr36]

Which is all fine but Jaguar exists to sell cars and make a profit. They are quite open that they have deliberately ditched their existing customer base. So who are they targeting as their new customers? To me, it would have made more sense to keep and grow the existing Jaguar brand. And if they were confident of high-end EVs appealing to cashed up younger people who value DEI etc then they should have created a new brand.

Have they though? Or have their traditional customer base shifted their taste and they're chasing them.

Their market has long been cashed up middle aged men who want to be stylish and a bit edgy. That's now your Tesla market who Jaguar are going to have a crack at. And they are in with a shot at the high end EV market if they get the tech right as Musk has become a bit of a turn off to his own market.

 

[Chief]

EV utes and SUVs are coming but they still come back to the same questions of how much does it cost, how far can it go and how the hell do I charge it in the middle of nowhere?

Take a train.

 

[the_interloper]

Take a train.

So a tradie has a choice between an EV ute and a train?

 

[Chief]

So a tradie has a choice between an EV ute and a train?

DERRRRRR.

 

[Mofra]

Electricity is woke

Damn that Bob Dylan

 

[Carringbush2010]

The guy behind the Jaguar re-brand spoke at the Attitude Awards, which is an event acknowledging and celebrating LGBTQ stars and allies. I think my description was accurate and not meant as a slur.

Yeah but you made it sound like that EV ceo's are lbgtqi+ activists are the norm and they virtue signal but are only interested in lining their pockets.

Yeah I'd reckon this is not the norm.

So I did sound like a dig at.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Have they though? Or have their traditional customer base shifted their taste and they're chasing them.

Their market has long been cashed up middle aged men who want to be stylish and a bit edgy. That's now your Tesla market who Jaguar are going to have a crack at. And they are in with a shot at the high end EV market if they get the tech right as Musk has become a bit of a turn off to his own market.

Jaguar's managing director, Rawdon Glover, has stated that after the rebrand and move to EV only he expects only 15 per cent of customers to be previous Jag owners.

I don't think there will that much crossover between the Jag and Tesla markets. It sounds like the new EV Jags will be priced at about $200k to $250k. They will be competing with the BMW i5 and Mercedes-Benz EQE. The difference is that both BMW and Mercedes remain committed to producing internal combustion powered cars.

As for the traditional customer base shifting their taste - Jag sales are up 33% in the UK this year, and that's despite declining sales of their current EV, the i-Pace.

 

[sr36]

As for the traditional customer base shifting their taste - Jag sales are up 33% in the UK this year, and that's despite declining sales of their current EV, the i-Pace.

You don't think the sales increase is because they're stopping production?