Draft Watcher Young Talent Time 2014

[SimonH]

... In terms of #18, I'd be looking towards the likes of Mac Bower, Tom Lamb and Kyle Langford. All three look like quality forwards, with Bower perhaps the most likely to fit what you're after - smarts, leading patterns.
...

What's happened to Mac Bower? SA's 3rd match of the championships, and he can't get a game, not even on an extended interchange bench. It may not make you any worse a player, but it sends a strong message and would be likely to make many recruiters run a mile if you can't get selected by your own state (esp when you made the 2013 squad while smaller and skinnier, to boot). Sure, it looks like he didn't play in April so must've had some injury prob this year, but it can't be match-fitness—he's been back playing 3 matches of SANFL reserves, plus played Foxtel Cup a week and a half ago. (Looked pretty lively in a badly beaten side with woeful inside 50 entry—could certainly hold his own against grown-ups.) Any idea? And if it is just 'too many good 3rd talls in SA, he's simply squeezed out', what impact do you think missing the side will have on his draft prospects?

 

[Chris25]

No love for Billy Evans? Knightmare just moved him up to 13. You dont have him on your list at all.

My list is overdue for an update, and I'm sure Evans will work his way in. But Knightmare didn't have Blakely or Marchbank in his list at all until last week, and now they are at 9 and 11 respectively. A lot changes when you post something so early.

Although having said that, Billy Evans wont be pushing the top 10 when I do update. I'll probably slot him in somewhere around the 30s. There's no question he has had a good year, and was one of Vic Country's more productive players last week against SA. But there are still a number of midfielders I'd have ahead of him. He has shown himself to be a very good contested player, but some players get huge clearance numbers because of a natural ability in close, whereas I tend to think he leans more towards it being size and strength. I don't think he is as good as Matthew Crouch was last year, and he went at #23.

 

[Chris25]

What's happened to Mac Bower? SA's 3rd match of the championships, and he can't get a game, not even on an extended interchange bench. It may not make you any worse a player, but it sends a strong message and would be likely to make many recruiters run a mile if you can't get selected by your own state (esp when you made the 2013 squad while smaller and skinnier, to boot). Sure, it looks like he didn't play in April so must've had some injury prob this year, but it can't be match-fitness—he's been back playing 3 matches of SANFL reserves, plus played Foxtel Cup a week and a half ago. (Looked pretty lively in a badly beaten side with woeful inside 50 entry—could certainly hold his own against grown-ups.) Any idea? And if it is just 'too many good 3rd talls in SA, he's simply squeezed out', what impact do you think missing the side will have on his draft prospects?

Brenton Phillips is big on having his players earn their spot in the SA side, through stringing together consistent performances. No matter who the player is. Mac Bower has been somewhat limited this year, and it's only really been the last few weeks that he has been back playing football. And he has yet to really find his stride quite yet. I'm sure he'll get a chance soon, probably when they rest one of Hayes, Ramsay or Wilkie. But for now, he just needs a good game in the Reserves.

As for his draft stock, I don't know what impact not playing in the early rounds will have. As big a fan that I am, he was never realistically going in the top 20. There is a still long way to go in the season, so likely nothing has changed quite yet.

 

[Dawgs89]

Chris - what are your thoughts on the dogs likely first round pick?

In my mind, we are likely to have a pick around 4-7. Who do you see being a logical selection for us and where do you see us needing the most help?

We need help all over the field, and with our first pick im not sure who does more for us.

ie: Goddard for our KPP stocks, Pickett/Smith for our outside run and carry, Lever for our rebound?

 

[Chris25]

Can't say I've really looked at teams and their individual needs quite yet, but the Bulldogs will be in an interesting spot if they are picking in that 4-7 range. Ideally, Patrick McCartin would be available but that seems pretty unlikely as he should be the first KPP taken. And then their second choice would likely be Peter Wright, but again there is no guarantee he drops out of the top 3. So what do they do then?

Sam Durdin and Hugh Goddard would be next in line, but neither are really the type of KPP that the Bulldogs would ideally be drafting (at least in my opinion). As good as Durdin is, he is more that Jordan Roughead type defender, or hard running mobile CHF type. I imagine they'd more rather a powerful tall to play out of the goal square and really straighten them up. I'd think he more suits a team like Melbourne, who may end up picking before the Bulldogs. And I personally wouldn't draft Goddard in the top 10. They'd perhaps be better off making bids for Darcy Moore and Matthew Hammelmann, and looking at a Reece McKenzie or Jesse Watchman in the second/third rounds.

So that leaves midfield/utilities. Given their recent drafting of Stringer and Bontempelli to go with Crameri, I think we can rule out someone like a Christian Petracca or Tom Lamb. And it would probably be a bit early for someone like a Clem Smith, who arguably is more a defender and doesn't really project as a genuine midfield option. Jarrod Pickett would be an option, and the Bulldogs could afford to take that chance given they've already stocked up on inside midfielders. Otherwise, it may just depend on who they rate as the best midfielder - Liam Duggan would probably be my choice for the Bulldogs, given his foot skills.

At this very early stage, I would be choosing between Pickett and Duggan (assuming the best KPP options are off the board), grabbing a McKenzie or Watchman in the second round and improving the defensive rebound later on - maybe someone like a Dillon Viojo-Rainbow is available, alternatively solid players are always on offer in the rookie draft as well as overaged players like Sam Bennett from North Ballarat. A lot can and will change before the draft, but the Bulldogs might just play themselves out of the race for the one player they arguably need most.

 

[Dav1d]

At this very early stage, I would be choosing between Pickett and Duggan (assuming the best KPP options are off the board), grabbing a McKenzie or Watchman in the second round and improving the defensive rebound later on - maybe someone like a Dillon Viojo-Rainbow is available, alternatively solid players are always on offer in the rookie draft as well as overaged players like Sam Bennett from North Ballarat. A lot can and will change before the draft, but the Bulldogs might just play themselves out of the race for the one player they arguably need most.

How about McLaren in the second round as a KPP? Viojo-Rainbow is one of my favourites, what is keeping him from going in the 1st?

See Pickett played a good game today, Tyler Keitel also interested me; but Brett Anderson has him going within the first round
The only reason I could see the Bulldogs recruiters not going for Pickett is because he is from WA recently tend to like the Victorian boys more

excluding Matt Fuller, been a mature age recruit last year

 

[manny100]

Hi Chris, the Dees drafting will be interesting this year. They are ok at the moment for KPP's in the senior side even given that Hogan is injured. A quick glance at their VFL side Casey there are no young developing KPI's at the moment. A quality tall at 1st pick will be hard to resist but a play straight away inside mid accumulator such as Brayshaw would be even more hard to resist. But there seems to be quality mids every draft whereas KPP's are more of a lottery. Also they will need to play Riley and Mitchie this season to see whether they can turn out ok. Will be interesting to see how it pans out. Billy Stretch could well prove to be a bargain outside player to complement those insiders.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

Keitel has got to be close to a top ten pick doesn't he ?

Been very very impressive has that xfactor.

 

[eth-dog]

Keitel has got to be close to a top ten pick doesn't he ?

Been very very impressive has that xfactor.

I bloody well hope not. Exactly what Essendon needs

 

[Chris25]

How about McLaren in the second round as a KPP? Viojo-Rainbow is one of my favourites, what is keeping him from going in the 1st?

Sean McLaren would be an option, but more as a defender/ruckman than a forward. I'm just not convinced that he is an early pick though, despite having a very strong resume. He's a good size and disciplined player, but not really the most natural defender and teams will likely prefer the development that someone like Caleb Marchbank has to come.

As for Dillon Viojo-Rainbow, his position just isn't that highly regarded in terms of draft stock. Back flankers have a history of being found later in the draft, particularly when it comes to mature aged players. And as good as he is playing, he isn't dominating each and every week - he's flashed potential, while being solid. He is the perfect size for a half back and has excellent foot skills, but he just isn't a first rounder.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

Sam Durdin and Hugh Goddard would be next in line, but neither are really the type of KPP that the Bulldogs would ideally be drafting (at least in my opinion). As good as Durdin is, he is more that Jordan Roughead type defender, or hard running mobile CHF type. I imagine they'd more rather a powerful tall to play out of the goal square and really straighten them up. I'd think he more suits a team like Melbourne, who may end up picking before the Bulldogs. And I personally wouldn't draft Goddard in the top 10. They'd perhaps be better off making bids for Darcy Moore and Matthew Hammelmann, and looking at a Reece McKenzie or Jesse Watchman in the second/third rounds.

Melbourne need that full forward as well though, Hogan and Dawes are more suited to the CHF position - especially Dawes who can't take a pack mark.

Watts' best position is a traditional lead up full forward, but he can't take a pack mark.

Durdin would be a good get if Frawley leaves.

Agree that I wouldn't want my team drafting Goddard in the top 10.

I'd hope the Dees look at Petracca, he's one of my favorites because he has a real impact - but I guess he needs to show consistency in the midfield to go top 10?

 

[Chris25]

Hi Chris, the Dees drafting will be interesting this year. They are ok at the moment for KPP's in the senior side even given that Hogan is injured. A quick glance at their VFL side Casey there are no young developing KPI's at the moment. A quality tall at 1st pick will be hard to resist but a play straight away inside mid accumulator such as Brayshaw would be even more hard to resist. But there seems to be quality mids every draft whereas KPP's are more of a lottery. Also they will need to play Riley and Mitchie this season to see whether they can turn out ok. Will be interesting to see how it pans out. Billy Stretch could well prove to be a bargain outside player to complement those insiders.

I think Sam Durdin would be an excellent fit for Melbourne. Hogan at full forward with Durdin at CHF would see you set for the next decade. Or he could always play at CHB, with Dawes joining Hogan up forward. He'd just give you so many options. Also, I'm not convinced that there are really any true #1 midfielders in this draft. I'm not particularly impressed with Angus Brayshaw, would have him behind about 4 or 5 other midfielders. Christian Petracca would probably be my back up plan to Durdin, but only if I was confident in him as a midfielder.

If it's a ready made inside midfielder you're after, you'd be better off waiting until the second round for someone like a Peter Bampton with Billy Stretch providing the run in the third round. An all SA draft? You could do much worse.

 

[Chris25]

Keitel has got to be close to a top ten pick doesn't he ?

Been very very impressive has that xfactor.

Quite possibly. At this early stage, he'd have himself in the first round. Like always with KPPs, it just depends on how many teams are after one - and whether a team is willing to spend such an early pick, on possibly the 5th highest rated KPP. He's pushed past Hugh Goddard in my rankings, but most clubs probably don't view it the same way. I'd have him at Fremantle though, and that's usually a good indicator of how I rate someone.

 

[manny100]

I think Sam Durdin would be an excellent fit for Melbourne. Hogan at full forward with Durdin at CHF would see you set for the next decade. Or he could always play at CHB, with Dawes joining Hogan up forward. He'd just give you so many options. Also, I'm not convinced that there are really any true #1 midfielders in this draft. I'm not particularly impressed with Angus Brayshaw, would have him behind about 4 or 5 other midfielders. Christian Petracca would probably be my back up plan to Durdin, but only if I was confident in him as a midfielder.

If it's a ready made inside midfielder you're after, you'd be better off waiting until the second round for someone like a Peter Bampton with Billy Stretch providing the run in the third round. An all SA draft? You could do much worse.

Thanks Chris, I think we will see a few changes in the order of the bottom 5 or 6 by seasons end. And of course no doubt there will also be plenty of changes in the order of players in the top 10 - 20. So its all starting to heat up. Most likely another SA lad to go to the Dees will be Billy Stretch who is showing a bit.
The bottom sides need a fair bit this drafting season, eg Bulldogs need a quality quick line breaker and a KPF. Saints and Lions need 2 quality KPP's, the Dees need another quality inside mid accumulator plus a developing quality KPP. GWS need games under the belts of players. GWS have to many KPP's on their list and for balance purposes will need to shed a couple over the next trading season or two. If GWS finish bottom 2 they may indeed jettison a couple of listed KPP's in favour of one available in this coming draft.
Plenty to look forward to.

 

[Billy Puller]

Woh you have Dawson rated real high, don't remember him being that high on your list. Did you move him up by any chance? If so why

 

[Chris25]

Woh you have Dawson rated real high, don't remember him being that high on your list. Did you move him up by any chance? If so why

He was at #8 for the past few months. So moved Dawson up one spot, as Smith moved down a few. I've always rated him very highly. It was just a small update to add a couple of names.

 

[Yoda_]

Cameron Conlon
I think deep down, everyone knew that Conlon was going to be overlooked. The injuries were just too much for any side to take on. It wouldn't surprise me if the recruiters all got together, and decided to pass so he could a year with no pressure to try to get back to full fitness. It will be interesting to see what 2014 holds for Conlon. There is a reason he was talked about as a top 10 pick, so if he can play some consistent football and get back to his best, where he fits in amongst all these other KPPs will be really interesting to watch.

Just want to go back to this fellow for a second Chris. Had a look at his Twitter feed and the happy red head has his own twitter handle #happysauce #onthemend and tweeted something just this afternoon about finally having a timeline of when he may return to playing again.

Would love to see the feel good story of him picked up but another year out of the game would see him overlooked?

 

[Dav1d]

Which players would you say are the fastest from a standing start at the Champs?

I would love to see the Dogs draft Pickett, but haven't drafted a U18 player outside of Victoria for a while now
not sure if that is just coincidence though

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Which players would you say are the fastest from a standing start at the Champs?

I would love to see the Dogs draft Pickett, but haven't drafted a U18 player outside of Victoria for a while now
not sure if that is just coincidence though

Who was the last one?

King Tutt?

 

[eth-dog]

Who was the last one?

King Tutt?

Zeph Skinner

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Zeph Skinner

Zephaniah was 21 when he was drafted.

 

[Chris25]

Which players would you say are the fastest from a standing start at the Champs?

No real doubts that Pickett would be the fastest, and I can imagine both the Bulldogs and Melbourne seriously considering him. SA midfielder Oleg Markov is quick and has an athletics past, but has been injured and only just returned through the SANFL. There are some others who may not necessarily test the quickest, but play fast - Jake Johansen is that nippy small midfielder/forward, Jayden Laverde moves well and seems to know when to break.

At the moment, I have the Bulldogs adding some skill to their midfield and half back line with Liam Duggan in the first round.

 

[Dav1d]

Who was the last one?

King Tutt?

probably right that it was Tutt, but he was drafted before McCartney took over; I really meant since then its only been U18s from Victoria
excluding Fuller from last year because he was taken as a mature aged pick

No real doubts that Pickett would be the fastest, and I can imagine both the Bulldogs and Melbourne seriously considering him. SA midfielder Oleg Markov is quick and has an athletics past, but has been injured and only just returned through the SANFL. There are some others who may not necessarily test the quickest, but play fast - Jake Johansen is that nippy small midfielder/forward, Jayden Laverde moves well and seems to know when to break.

At the moment, I have the Bulldogs adding some skill to their midfield and half back line with Liam Duggan in the first round.

Do you think Johansen compares a bit like to Honeychurch last year? What are players like Cunico and Nelsons speed like? Have heard Castagna been called lightning quick

have seen Duggan play in person before and he even looks quite quick, I do hope the Dogs recruiters consider one of Pickett or Duggan if McCartin/Wright & even Durdin are off the table

I really rate a lot of the Jets boys in Duggan/Viojo-Rainbow and Laverde; never see Ellis all that much to really comment

 

[Wizard17]

Duggan
Laverde
Pickett
Cunico
Langford
Viojo-Rainbow
Wigg

Could add more but from what I've heard they all have good leg speed and skills.

 

[Bulldogsnm1]

probably right that it was Tutt, but he was drafted before McCartney took over; I really meant since then its only been U18s from Victoria
excluding Fuller from last year because he was taken as a mature aged pick



Do you think Johansen compares a bit like to Honeychurch last year? What are players like Cunico and Nelsons speed like? Have heard Castagna been called lightning quick

have seen Duggan play in person before and he even looks quite quick, I do hope the Dogs recruiters consider one of Pickett or Duggan if McCartin/Wright & even Durdin are off the table

I really rate a lot of the Jets boys in Duggan/Viojo-Rainbow and Laverde; never see Ellis all that much to really comment

Menadue by far is the fastest of the Jets players, has been asked to be a defender or wingman so far for Vic Metro, returned to the Jets on the weekend and played mid-field collecting over 30 possessions and kicking 2 goals.
Tested at under 2.9 seconds for 20 metres early in the season