Prediction Your Draft Selections

[The rabbi]

The winner!!

Hang on until this time in 2019.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I thought it was interesting Brisbane's recruiting manager today on radio was saying they hoped to get mids at 15 and 18 and then academy talls (Ballenden and Payne) this tells me a couple of things:
-He doesn't think a team before 15 will bid on Ballenden or at least he hopes not
-He doesn't think Richmond will bid on him (I wouldn't be surprised if Richmond and Brisbane have done a deal not to bid on each other's players but you would never prove that) and obviously GC are unlikely to bid on someone else's academy player so they probably feel Ballenden will get to the 20s before a bid which is what they would be hoping (whether we bid at 22 if he is still there I don't know).

So we now know mids are likely for Brisbane and I expect they will either take two Vic Country players or two from SA/WA/NT to lessen the go home likelihood, I know you can never predict that as look at Schache's family connection to the club and he still left but Brisbane haven't done well retaining Vic Metro players and the ones they drafted last year that all re-signed were basically either all from Vic Country or NT.

So assuming the top 14 is something like
1. Bris-Rayner/Brayshaw/LDU
2. Freo-LDU/Rayner/Brayshaw
3. Rayner/Dow
4. Dow/Rayner/Cerra/Brayshaw
5. Cerra/Stephenson (I am assuming they stay true to their word re mids and don't go Naughton)
6. Naughton/Cerra/Stephenson
7 and 8 St Kilda two of Clark/Fogarty (will snap up Cerra if he is still here)/Stephenson/Coffield
9. WB either Stephenson or Coffield (whichever St Kilda don't take)
10. Carlton-has to be a mid either Clark or Stephenson if they get through otherwise Fogarty unless they really risk and go Bonar
11. GWS-still think Higgins is the obvious fit but I wouldn't rule out Brander and maybe Murphy (sort of player I can see Quayle being a big fan of)
12. Fogarty if still on the board if not they will take a long look at Naughton/Brander (if still on the board) for KPD
13. Clark if he somehow gets through otherwise I think they might take Allen so Richmond don't.
14. Given Grundy's age I reckon they take Naughton if here if he is gone they are probably looking for outside class like they got last year. Wouldn't put it past them to bid on Naish here probably Murphy/O'Brien/Richards are the three (hoping they don't take Ling) although their list is strong enough to risk Bonar.
Then
15 and 18 (Brisbane) 2 non Vic metro mids . 2 of Bonar/Bailey/Ling/O'Brien. I think Bailey will really appeal to them as NT means no go home factor L Fogarty is probably the one Vic metro mid they might risk.
16 WB Murphy is a Dalrymple type of pick either him or Richards I think and they will look at L Fogarty.
17 and 20. Richmond (assuming no Naish bid) 2 of Brander/Allen/Hayes/Balta (I am assuming they won't bid on Ballenden).
19. GC- seem to be getting linked to Richards although I think Bailey will appeal to them also. Doubt they bid on Ballenden.
21. If they have taken Allen they will want a mid here I think they will really be hoping Bailey is here or O'Brien (would be a great replacement for Gaff if he goes). Can see them bidding on Naish for the same reason as O'Brien. Unless because of rumours of Geelong and a couple of other clubs being keen on Kelly they might avoid the risk and take him here.

I tend to think that's how it pans out and I think LDU Rayner Cerra Brayshaw Dow Stephenson Naughton Clark D Fogarty Coffield Clark Higgins Allen and probably Murphy are not getting through to us. Assuming no academy bids and the rest as per above that means 3 of Bonar/O'Brien/Bailey/Richards/Ling/LFogarty/Brander/Hayes/Balta/Kelly will still be available to us. I am not a fan of Balta (reminds me too much of Rhys Stanley) but I would be happy with any of the others, some more than others like Bailey but I think they all have talent so it doesn't look too bad for us.

I do hope we get a quality outside mid such as Bailey/OBrien/Ling/Kelly etc would be ideal but I do wonder if Wells comments about they expect a couple of highly rated talls to slip as meaning we just expect that or we are considering snapping up talls if ones we rate in our top 20 are still there. Looks a reasonable chance that one of Hayes or Brander will be there for us and we will probably have the option to bid on Ballenden as well. I do concur with those really rating Sam Taylor although I find it harder to justify taking him at 22/24 just because I feel some decent KPDs like Petty/Clavarino/Butts will be floating around later in the draft.

 

[Shai]

I thought it was interesting Brisbane's recruiting manager today on radio was saying they hoped to get mids at 15 and 18 and then academy talls (Ballenden and Payne) this tells me a couple of things:
-He doesn't think a team before 15 will bid on Ballenden or at least he hopes not
-He doesn't think Richmond will bid on him (I wouldn't be surprised if Richmond and Brisbane have done a deal not to bid on each other's players but you would never prove that) and obviously GC are unlikely to bid on someone else's academy player so they probably feel Ballenden will get to the 20s before a bid which is what they would be hoping (whether we bid at 22 if he is still there I don't know).

So we now know mids are likely for Brisbane and I expect they will either take two Vic Country players or two from SA/WA/NT to lessen the go home likelihood, I know you can never predict that as look at Schache's family connection to the club and he still left but Brisbane haven't done well retaining Vic Metro players and the ones they drafted last year that all re-signed were basically either all from Vic Country or NT.

So assuming the top 14 is something like
1. Bris-Rayner/Brayshaw/LDU
2. Freo-LDU/Rayner/Brayshaw
3. Rayner/Dow
4. Dow/Rayner/Cerra/Brayshaw
5. Cerra/Stephenson (I am assuming they stay true to their word re mids and don't go Naughton)
6. Naughton/Cerra/Stephenson
7 and 8 St Kilda two of Clark/Fogarty (will snap up Cerra if he is still here)/Stephenson/Coffield
9. WB either Stephenson or Coffield (whichever St Kilda don't take)
10. Carlton-has to be a mid either Clark or Stephenson if they get through otherwise Fogarty unless they really risk and go Bonar
11. GWS-still think Higgins is the obvious fit but I wouldn't rule out Brander and maybe Murphy (sort of player I can see Quayle being a big fan of)
12. Fogarty if still on the board if not they will take a long look at Naughton/Brander (if still on the board) for KPD
13. Clark if he somehow gets through otherwise I think they might take Allen so Richmond don't.
14. Given Grundy's age I reckon they take Naughton if here if he is gone they are probably looking for outside class like they got last year. Wouldn't put it past them to bid on Naish here probably Murphy/O'Brien/Richards are the three (hoping they don't take Ling) although their list is strong enough to risk Bonar.
Then
15 and 18 (Brisbane) 2 non Vic metro mids . 2 of Bonar/Bailey/Ling/O'Brien. I think Bailey will really appeal to them as NT means no go home factor L Fogarty is probably the one Vic metro mid they might risk.
16 WB Murphy is a Dalrymple type of pick either him or Richards I think and they will look at L Fogarty.
17 and 20. Richmond (assuming no Naish bid) 2 of Brander/Allen/Hayes/Balta (I am assuming they won't bid on Ballenden).
19. GC- seem to be getting linked to Richards although I think Bailey will appeal to them also. Doubt they bid on Ballenden.
21. If they have taken Allen they will want a mid here I think they will really be hoping Bailey is here or O'Brien (would be a great replacement for Gaff if he goes). Can see them bidding on Naish for the same reason as O'Brien. Unless because of rumours of Geelong and a couple of other clubs being keen on Kelly they might avoid the risk and take him here.

I tend to think that's how it pans out and I think LDU Rayner Cerra Brayshaw Dow Stephenson Naughton Clark D Fogarty Coffield Clark Higgins Allen and probably Murphy are not getting through to us. Assuming no academy bids and the rest as per above that means 3 of Bonar/O'Brien/Bailey/Richards/Ling/LFogarty/Brander/Hayes/Balta/Kelly will still be available to us. I am not a fan of Balta (reminds me too much of Rhys Stanley) but I would be happy with any of the others, some more than others like Bailey but I think they all have talent so it doesn't look too bad for us.

I do hope we get a quality outside mid such as Bailey/OBrien/Ling/Kelly etc would be ideal but I do wonder if Wells comments about they expect a couple of highly rated talls to slip as meaning we just expect that or we are considering snapping up talls if ones we rate in our top 20 are still there. Looks a reasonable chance that one of Hayes or Brander will be there for us and we will probably have the option to bid on Ballenden as well. I do concur with those really rating Sam Taylor although I find it harder to justify taking him at 22/24 just because I feel some decent KPDs like Petty/Clavarino/Butts will be floating around later in the draft.

If Hayes or Brander are there in the early 20's I would snaffle them in a heartbeat.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If Hayes or Brander are there in the early 20's I would snaffle them in a heartbeat.

Brander i rate very highly i agree Hayes i would defer to Vdubs on.

Constable is the other one i didn't list above who will probably be available but he is not a need for us.

 

[CatRiot]

Brander is tops. No way he will slide to us.

On Moto G (5) using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Brander is tops. No way he will slide to us.

On Moto G (5) using BigFooty.com mobile app

It's possible. Richmond are the main danger at 17 and 20 as they need talls but it's unlikely Brisbane at 15 and 18 will take a tall (they want mids as per above got Ballenden and Payne as academy talls later) WB (16) unlikely to pluck a KPF after their trade period, its unlikely GC (19) will take a KPF i would have thought and WCE at 21 will want mids/kelly. So all the order has to do is for the teens picks to to fall in such a way that 3 of Brander Hayes and Allen are there at 15 and one of them is virtually guaranteed to get to 22 even if richmond take 2 talls. Maybe we are guessing this will happen re Wells saying some highly rated talls are likely to slide.

 

[gypsy_1]

Detailed research Pure Orange. Appreciate the insights. I know a couple of Stingray players. They mention that Ling is unorthodox and knocks on him. When playing the Falcons he was not noticeable. By the way, Luke Davies U is a beast from the Stingrays, body ready midfielder.

 

[Landgraft]

Detailed research Pure Orange. Appreciate the insights. I know a couple of Stingray players. They mention that Ling is unorthodox and knocks on him. When playing the Falcons he was not noticeable. By the way, Luke Davies U is a beast from the Stingrays, body ready midfielder.

Would love LDU but he's basically a lock for top 5.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

If we go small with our first two I reckon Petty would be a great get with 35 if available. Like him too.

I'd prefer we take Taylor at that pick If he's still there.

I'd take an outside mid with our first pick and preferably O'Brien ... a key position player - a forward and back with our next two picks and then try and nab a small forward or two with our later selections.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

22 - O'Brien
24 - Taylor
35 - Wooller
58 - Small forward
72 - Best available

 

[year of the cat]

I'd prefer we take Taylor at that pick If he's still there.

I'd take an outside mid with our first pick and preferably O'Brien ... a key position player - a forward and back with our next two picks and then try and nab a small forward or two with our later selections.

Yes, depending on how the draft falls I’m of the same view.

Our first two picks on Taylor and a small like O’Brien or Bailey or L.Fogarty would be my ideal scenario, then picking up Houlahan with 35. I have a feeling though that Wells may take a combination of McCartin and Houlahan with the first two and then use 35 on perhaps Daniels. Not a bad result.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Yes, depending on how the draft falls I’m of the same view.

Our first two picks on Taylor and a small like O’Brien or Bailey or L.Fogarty would be my ideal scenario, then picking up Houlahan with 35. I have a feeling though that Wells may take a combination of McCartin and Houlahan with the first two and then use 35 on perhaps Daniels. Not a bad result.

I'd be happy with any combination of those players you mentioned. As I've said before I don't think this draft is as bad as what we're being made to believe.

There's some underrated talent in this draft.

 

[year of the cat]

I think Wells might call something like this:

22 - Houlahan
24 - McCartin
35 - Daniels
58 - Floyd
72 - Krueger

 

[OzeSparky]

I think Wells might call something like this:

22 - Houlahan
24 - McCartin
35 - Daniels
58 - Floyd
72 - Krueger

That looks good.

 

[Anthony Geelong]

I think Wells might call something like this:

22 - Houlahan
24 - McCartin
35 - Daniels
58 - Floyd
72 - Krueger

That looks good.

Am laughing at the both of you right now, mark my words, Tom McCartin is a dud
We need to take at least one of the small quick mids, at least miers instead of reaching for every player that we draft (Daniels at 35?!?!)
If we are looking for talls, then we get better talls, eg Sam Taylor, Petty, Wooler, CCJ

 

[calder_daddy]

Am laughing at the both of you right now, mark my words, Tom McCartin is a dud
We need to take at least one of the small quick mids, at least miers instead of reaching for every player that we draft (Daniels at 35?!?!)
If we are looking for talls, then we get better talls, eg Sam Taylor, Petty, Wooler, CCJ

He’s pretty much a bottom age player who’s available to get drafted, I also noticed your down for nearly double figures of posting something.
Please tell us how you know he’s a dud, did he steal your gf at high school?

 

[BORIS332]

He’s pretty much a bottom age player who’s available to get drafted, I also noticed your down for nearly double figures of posting something.
Please tell us how you know he’s a dud, did he steal your gf at high school?

Not OP, but McCartin has shown next to nothing. I get he's super young, but it's a huge risk to assume that he's just going to come along and be a star. At this point in time he's undersized for a KPF (193cm), who's to say he will grow? Who's to say he won't go backwards in terms of ability?

 

[year of the cat]

Am laughing at the both of you right now, mark my words, Tom McCartin is a dud
We need to take at least one of the small quick mids, at least miers instead of reaching for every player that we draft (Daniels at 35?!?!)
If we are looking for talls, then we get better talls, eg Sam Taylor, Petty, Wooler, CCJ

Matter of opinion of course. McCartin isn't terribly high on my list of draftees but I can see why he may be rated seeing he's very bottom aged and has an excellent tank, good hands and is a reliable kick. He appears to have a lot of room for growth.

Personally I'd prioritise Taylor or Petty if we are taking a tall.

Miers lack of speed concerns me. Clearly a clever player but I'm not sure he will be able to make it as a small forward in the AFL without acceleration.

 

[Johnny Cattery]

He’s pretty much a bottom age player who’s available to get drafted, I also noticed your down for nearly double figures of posting something.
Please tell us how you know he’s a dud, did he steal your gf at high school?

Not sure number of posts always correlates with knowledge - in fact I doubt Wells and Scott get on here much ...

 

[year of the cat]

It's possible. Richmond are the main danger at 17 and 20 as they need talls but it's unlikely Brisbane at 15 and 18 will take a tall (they want mids as per above got Ballenden and Payne as academy talls later) WB (16) unlikely to pluck a KPF after their trade period, its unlikely GC (19) will take a KPF i would have thought and WCE at 21 will want mids/kelly. So all the order has to do is for the teens picks to to fall in such a way that 3 of Brander Hayes and Allen are there at 15 and one of them is virtually guaranteed to get to 22 even if richmond take 2 talls. Maybe we are guessing this will happen re Wells saying some highly rated talls are likely to slide.

Can't see Brander getting past Richmond.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

It would be 5 picks and upgrade parsons then as we currently have 33 on the senior list. (We will go with a 39/5 not 40/4 split). I am thinking 4 picks parsons and a DFA is possible.

The more I watch of Sam Taylor, the more I am sold on him for 22.

Very good size height and pace for a key position. Held his own against senior WAFL players all season playing good footy.

Bit worried he might be taken before our first pick.

Exceptionally good mark overhead and a great interceptor, has pace to burn as well.

I know you follow the draft a bit, do you think there is a chance he goes before our first pick?

 

[Anthony Geelong]

He’s pretty much a bottom age player who’s available to get drafted, I also noticed your down for nearly double figures of posting something.
Please tell us how you know he’s a dud, did he steal your gf at high school?

Ur an actual idiot, if you honestly rate a player simply cos he's 'young' then your dreaming. If we take him firstly before Wooler and also before pick 58 then it would probably be the mistake of the draft, especially considering the number of other players (better talls) who will be available around our 2nd rounders.

 

[year of the cat]

The more I watch of Sam Taylor, the more I am sold on him for 22.

Very good size height and pace for a key position. Held his own against senior WAFL players all season playing good footy.

Bit worried he might be taken before our first pick.

Exceptionally good mark overhead and a great interceptor, has pace to burn as well.

I know you follow the draft a bit, do you think there is a chance he goes before our first pick?

Tigers look the only possibility - if Brander falls to them I think they'll take him as their tall and take a smaller type with their next. In other words I think there's an excellent chance that Taylor is available to us. There's less of chance though that Wells wants him

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Tigers look the only possibility - if Brander falls to them I think they'll take him as their tall and take a smaller type with their next. In other words I think there's an excellent chance that Taylor is available to us. There's less of chance though that Wells wants him

Why wouldn’t wells want him? Screams the wells type to me.

Great western Australian prospect who has played quality senior football and fallen under the radar a little.

Reminds me in spades of Harry Taylor.

 

[year of the cat]

Why wouldn’t wells want him? Screams the wells type to me.

Great western Australian prospect who has played quality senior football and fallen under the radar a little.

Reminds me in spades of Harry Taylor.

I completely agree. But when was the last time Wells called a player that we all want?! Selwood?