Prediction Your Essendon 2025 season predictions. Right or Left field.

[Runk]

Pretty realistic predictions.

Yeah I'm not much of a gambler

 

[thebigboy]

The Hawks are the exception though - there are always anomalies. I wouldn't predict 2025 to be a year we improve given the way we seem to be going with the list. The majority of posters had us winning a final in 2024 - supporters always overrate their own.

In the 18 team era, on average 3 teams per year make the finals after missing it the year prior, so it's common to an extent and big jumps have not just been limited to Hawthorn last year, see Collingwood 2021-22 as another example. We also won 11 games last year, so the tasks aren't as significant as that.

From a list perspective, replacing Stringer's 40+ goals is going to be a challenge, however, he brought significant deficiencies to our forward-line structure that we all have lived with for the last 4 years. With Kelly & Heppell, it's very difficult to argue that they are going to be hard holes to fill based on the tape they've put out there over the last few seasons. It's a popular narrative that our list is worse, but I just simply don't agree.

 

[bombreys]

Last season we deemed an AA wing not good enough to play AFL and gave him away for a late pick. So don’t think that means much.

If we compare this years likely starting team to the team that finished last season.

McGrath McKay Ridley
Redman Reid Sheil
Martin Merrett Dursma
Bryan Durham Caldwell
Kako Caddy Perkins
Langford Draper Gresham
Ic Roberts, Parish, Tsatas, Jones


OUT: laverde, Heppell, Kelly, Stringer Guelfi
In: Reid Ridley Dursma Tsatas Kako

That’s 20% of the team including adding 3 top 10 picks and 1 AA defender:

adding health alongside Saad, Prior and Kako helps our transition immensely and that’s before having hope for Clarke, Johnson, Unwin, Nguyen who as first year outside players are potentially capable of playing their roles at AFL level if needed.

We have decent tall depth and no longer have to try and fit stringer into a side where he doesn’t work.

To be fair, you said all of this stuff last preseason. And we finished the exact same position as the year before - 11th. Yes, that team on paper looks better - but every team looks good on paper, at full strength. By Round 1, we'll have a few injuries - as will 17 other teams. No team is ever really at full strength.

You're leaving out important info - of the three top ten picks you mention, Reid is averaging 2.25 games a year, Tsatas has so far been deemed not good enough for AFL level and Kako has obviously never played a game. We're not talking about 3 top 10 picks coming off 3 unbelievable games the last Round of 2024.

Any fan of any team in the comp can do as you've done above and list a team at full strength, list the players they've drafted that year and say 'look how good we're going to be'.

Not wanting to be a killjoy, but the same things get said every year. This is not the year for us to try and advance up the ladder, especially after how 2023 & 2024 went.

 

[bombreys]

Any improvement will have to be internal development. Young players being better and another small step in game plan. That is why this year is a mystery. Of course a few less injuries to top end players would help.

Fully fit Ridley / Reid / Parish / Langford (full season) will help.

I know it is January but having had a first hand look at Tsatas in match sim he looks to have taken a step forward.

Kako will have an impact as far as forward pressure goes based on what I have seen.

Davey is further advanced from last year.

The theme the coaches are really hammering in all drills and match sim is set up the ground. Once the ball has moved on players have to set up defensively. It is a constant.
Just looking at match sim it is a higher temp ball movement with McGrath / Shiel / Merrett / Redman all taking some of the role Martin had .

So yeah. Not much improvement personal wise so it will be a work in progress based on player advancement and a step up in game style.

For sure - and depends what your idea of 'improvement' is, I suppose. If we move up the ladder, great - if we finish 14th, don't get pumped by over ~40 points at any stage and find a few younger guys to become solid best 22 players for the future, that would be even better, in my opinion.

 

[bombreys]

In the 18 team era, on average 3 teams per year make the finals after missing it the year prior, so it's common to an extent and big jumps have not just been limited to Hawthorn last year, see Collingwood 2021-22 as another example. We also won 11 games last year, so the tasks aren't as significant as that.

From a list perspective, replacing Stringer's 40+ goals is going to be a challenge, however, he brought significant deficiencies to our forward-line structure that we all have lived with for the last 4 years. With Kelly & Heppell, it's very difficult to argue that they are going to be hard holes to fill based on the tape they've put out there over the last few seasons. It's a popular narrative that our list is worse, but I just simply don't agree.

It's fairly uncommon for teams who've been hanging around the middle of the ladder to make a big jump - see us, see St Kilda.

I don't necessary think the list is 'worse' - it is younger though, and younger sides (very generally speaking) tend to lose. I would much rather target 2028 as the year to jump up the ladder. I see little to no benefit in scraping into the finals in 2025 - Brisbane finished 5th in 2024 - imagine how we'd go against the Lions up at the Gabba with our current group.

 

[thebigboy]

It's fairly uncommon for teams who've been hanging around the middle of the ladder to make a big jump - see us, see St Kilda.

I don't necessary think the list is 'worse' - it is younger though, and younger sides (very generally speaking) tend to lose. I would much rather target 2028 as the year to jump up the ladder. I see little to no benefit in scraping into the finals in 2025 - Brisbane finished 5th in 2024 - imagine how we'd go against the Lions up at the Gabba with our current group.

Based on that, what would you want us to do with 2025, 2026 & 2027?

If we'd played Brisbane, we'd have gotten flogged like Carlton did, no question about it. Remember, at no point have I said we will make Top 4, or win multiple finals, all I've said is my prediction, for the grain of salt that its worth, is that we'll play finals and improve on 2 areas that let us down last year.

 

[jdstorm]

To be fair, you said all of this stuff last preseason. And we finished the exact same position as the year before - 11th. Yes, that team on paper looks better - but every team looks good on paper, at full strength. By Round 1, we'll have a few injuries - as will 17 other teams. No team is ever really at full strength.

You're leaving out important info - of the three top ten picks you mention, Reid is averaging 2.25 games a year, Tsatas has so far been deemed not good enough for AFL level and Kako has obviously never played a game. We're not talking about 3 top 10 picks coming off 3 unbelievable games the last Round of 2024.

Any fan of any team in the comp can do as you've done above and list a team at full strength, list the players they've drafted that year and say 'look how good we're going to be'.

Not wanting to be a killjoy, but the same things get said every year. This is not the year for us to try and advance up the ladder, especially after how 2023 & 2024 went.

I think skepticism is warranted with this group and finishing bottom 4 is a realistic outcome.

It’s also fair to acknowledge that compared to the team that started last season we are likely to have 7/8 different players in the best 22 and or in different roles compared to the team that started last season.

Also 4 changes from the team that finished the final game of last season. An almost 20% difference in team composition is a significant change.

We’ve added 6 outside players and had a nice surprise from Roberts and those players are typically ready to contribute year 1.

Our 3 biggest issues last year were forward pressure, transition attack and strength at the contest. These 6 new players help address two of those

 

[bombreys]

Based on that, what would you want us to do with 2025, 2026 & 2027?

If we'd played Brisbane, we'd have gotten flogged like Carlton did, no question about it. Remember, at no point have I said we will make Top 4, or win multiple finals, all I've said is my prediction, for the grain of salt that its worth, is that we'll play finals and improve on 2 areas that let us down last year.

Regarding ladder positions/wins and losses, I honestly don't really care where we end up. I think/hope we'll drop in 2025 & 2026 and finally focus on younger guys/development and then try and move up from there.

 

[thebigboy]

Regarding ladder positions/wins and losses, I honestly don't really care where we end up. I think/hope we'll drop in 2025 & 2026 and finally focus on younger guys/development and then try and move up from there.

Agree that focusing on youth & development needs to be the key, but that doesn’t have to come at the expense of winning. Winning games adds more value to the group that focusing on draft spots IMO

 

[ant555]

For sure - and depends what your idea of 'improvement' is, I suppose. If we move up the ladder, great - if we finish 14th, don't get pumped by over ~40 points at any stage and find a few younger guys to become solid best 22 players for the future, that would be even better, in my opinion.

There could be a world where the young blokes play more and that drives players like Merrett / Parish / Martin / Redman / McGrath and co to be a bit better as well. That is why this season has a fair bit of mystery about it.
There are not a lot of old blokes left.
So far Draper and Bryan have been the prefered ruck options in match sim which is unlike last year with Draper injured and Goldy playing number 1 ruck against Bryan.
Laverde only really got into the side because Reid and Baldwin who where the best performed defenders got injured. It will be the same this year.
Kelly and heppell are gone.
Stringer gone.
Geulfi will be fringe.
Durham and Caldwell have taken over key midfield spots.
Tsatas is looking like he has found another level and has a handle on his kicking.
Davey is more advanced than he was at this stage last year.
Roberts looks like he is going just as well.
Kako is already having an impact.
I may be off the mark but I just do not see bottom 5 unless we have issues with injury. I think we are still short of top 5 but they really only have to patch up a couple of system issues that cost us 3 close games last year.
I think there will be a bigger input from young blokes simply because Heppell / Stringer / Kelly are gone and Goldy right now is clearly the number 3 ruck based on him getting the least amount of ruck time in match sim.
If we finish 14th we will be looking at a serious list rebuild and I suspect there will be a few 50 point plus loses.

 

[ant555]

I think skepticism is warranted with this group and finishing bottom 4 is a realistic outcome.

It’s also fair to acknowledge that compared to the team that started last season we are likely to have 7/8 different players in the best 22 and or in different roles compared to the team that started last season.

Also 4 changes from the team that finished the final game of last season. An almost 20% difference in team composition is a significant change.

We’ve added 6 outside players and had a nice surprise from Roberts and those players are typically ready to contribute year 1.

Our 3 biggest issues last year were forward pressure, transition attack and strength at the contest. These 6 new players help address two of those

I would say conversion of inside 50 entries was in the top couple of issues along with forward pressure. The transition game had its issues as does our overall contested footy and also marking power in front of the footy but we trashed at least 3 games by not kicking straight or just wasting opportunities inside 50 and that is not counting the poor entries.

 

[jdstorm]

I would say conversion of inside 50 entries was in the top couple of issues along with forward pressure. The transition game had its issues as does our overall contested footy and also marking power in front of the footy but we trashed at least 3 games by not kicking straight or just wasting opportunities inside 50 and that is not counting the poor entries.

For sure. They are definitely linked.

Shit entries and sloppy transition play leads to harder shots at goal. And our forwards aren’t the best kicks at the best of times

Then the amount of times we’ve been burned by dumb live ball turnovers and given up a goal going back the other way from a shit forward entry.

Probably worth at least 2-3 net goals a game. If it was worth 3 goals a game net that would put us on par with Hawks/Dogs/Cats in the 3-5 range.

(Last year -23 net goals. Those teams about +50)

So hopefully we tidy it up and take our chances